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Feasibility of UN Global Goals

Dec 6, 2025

Overview

  • Speaker discusses feasibility of the UN Global Goals (Sustainable Development Goals) for 2030.
  • Uses the Social Progress Index (SPI) to benchmark current status and forecast progress.
  • Main claim: Global Goals are achievable, but not under business as usual; requires prioritizing social progress and accountability.

Social Progress Index (SPI) — Method and Current Status

  • SPI measures social outcomes independent of GDP using 52 indicators, score range 0–100.
  • SPI asks three core questions:
    • Do people have basic survival needs (food, water, shelter, safety)?
    • Do people have building blocks for a better life (education, health, information, sustainable environment)?
    • Do people have opportunity (rights, freedom, non-discrimination, access to knowledge)?
  • Current (2015) global SPI score: 61 (population-weighted), comparable to Cuba/Kazakhstan.
  • Global SPI range: Norway highest ~88; Central African Republic lowest ~31.

Target And Rationale

  • Target SPI to count as meeting the Global Goals: 75 out of 100.
  • Global Goals include 17 goals, 169 targets, and hundreds of indicators; some targets are specific, others broad.

Forecast Based On Economic Growth Alone

  • Baseline (2015): GDP per capita ~$14,000 and SPI 61.
  • USDA forecast: ~3.1% annual global growth → GDP per capita ≈ $23,000 by 2030.
  • Deloitte economists estimate this economic growth would raise SPI from 61 to only 62.4.
  • Conclusion: Economic growth alone yields minimal SPI improvement and is insufficient.

Why GDP Alone Is Insufficient

  • Diminishing returns: additional GDP buys less social progress at higher wealth levels.
  • Past successes (poverty reduction) used the “easy wins” from growth; remaining challenges are harder.
  • Economic growth can incur social and environmental costs (e.g., environmental damage, health issues).

Evidence That Progress Is Possible Without Solely Relying On GDP

  • Cross-country variation around GDP–SPI regression shows GDP is not destiny.
  • Examples:
    • Underperformers: Russia, China, India — relatively more wealth but less social progress.
    • Overperformers: Costa Rica, Rwanda, New Zealand — higher social progress relative to GDP.
  • Implication: policy choices and priorities can raise SPI significantly irrespective of GDP.

Alternative Scenarios And Potential SPI Outcomes

  • If underperforming countries reach the global average SPI for their GDP → global SPI ≈ 65.
  • If every country improves how it converts wealth to well-being moderately → global SPI ≈ 67.
  • If every country matched Costa Rica’s prioritization of well-being relative to GDP → global SPI ≈ 73 (near target).
  • Therefore, substantial non-growth policy shifts could nearly achieve the Global Goals.

Accountability And Monitoring

  • Proposes the “People’s Report Card” to track Global Goals progress annually.
  • Report card grades countries and the world from F to A; current world grade: C-.
  • Annual, country-level report cards aim to hold leaders accountable and focus citizen pressure.

Action Items

  • Prioritize social progress in national and international policy frameworks.
  • Scale proven social solutions globally, not just promote GDP growth.
  • Implement annual People’s Report Card monitoring for each country and the world.
  • Citizens and civil society should use report cards to demand action from leaders.

Decisions

  • Implicit decision: Global Goals are a valid target and should be pursued with priority on social progress.
  • Implicit commitment: Produce and update annual People’s Report Cards to hold countries accountable.

Full transcript