Foreign Populism, Aristotle, and Hope

Introduction

• Lecture begins with reflection on civilizational and cultural changes.
• Transition from an age of religiosity and rigid class divisions to a liberal democratic consensus.
• Rapid change from 1990s consensus to contemporary world.

The Era of Liberal Optimism (1989-2004)

• 1989: Fall of Berlin Wall and rise of the U.S. as unchallenged superpower.
• Doubling of democracies in Central, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Asia, and parts of the Middle East.
• Peace and Prosperity:
  • Stephen Pinker: annual decrease in civilians killed, internally displaced people, and refugees.
  • World on track to halve global poverty four years early.

Characteristics of the 1990s

• Consensus Politics: Center-ground wins elections (e.g., Bill Clinton, Tony Blair).
• Prosperity from Free Markets: Prominence of open global markets.
• Democracy & Prosperity Link: Modernization theory: prosperous economies inevitably become democracies.
• Moral Legitimacy of the West: Humanitarian interventions in Bosnia, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Liberia.
• Universal Liberal Global Order: Expected continual growth of democracies.

Shift to Paralysis and Uncertainty (Early 2000s)

Key Events

• Social Media: Rise of Twitter and Facebook, peak with 2011 Arab Spring.
• 2008 Financial Crisis: Economic system credibility damaged, frozen GDP per capita, rising inequality.
• Rise of China: Challenges the link between Prosperity and Democracy.
• West's Internal Challenges: Movements like Black Lives Matter, climate change activism.
• Iraq and Afghanistan Failures: Humiliations reveal cracks in liberal global order.

The Age of Populism (2014 Onwards)

Key Figures and Events

• ISIS 2014: Capture of Mosul by ISIS; Narendra Modi's rise in India.
• Erdogan's Shift: From Istanbul Mayor to authoritarian President.
• Brexit 2016: Major populist political event.
• Bolsonaro 2018: Rise of Latin American populist leaders.
• Donald Trump: Symbol of the populist age in the U.S.

Characteristics of the Age of Populism

• Erosion of Consensus: Public opinion shifts to political extremes.
• Protectionism & Cynicism: Economic skepticism following 2008 crisis; trade wars.
• Decreasing Democracies: Decline in global democracies; prosperity over democracy sentiment.
• Moral Legitimacy Questioned: Rise of isolationism; Western elite discredited.
• Collapse of Liberal World Order: Increase in isolationist policies, cutting international aid.

Responses to Populism

Aristotelian Concepts

• Logos, Pathos, Ethos: Rhetorical foundation for addressing modern issues.
• Empathy: Essential in addressing polarization and maintaining democratic compromise.
• Practical Reason: Embedded decision-making that considers real-world context.
• Moral Virtues in Democracy: Democracy valued not just for prosperity but for human rights and joint political activity.
• Eudaimonia (Flourishing): Activity-based happiness, ethical and practical joint actions.
• Elpis (Good Hope): Courage and recognition of limitations, yet acknowledgment of potential.

Concluding Thoughts

• The importance of balancing empathy, practical reason, and moral virtues.
• Need for recognizing realistic yet hopeful approaches to tackling modern challenges.