Lecture Notes: Social Scientific Approach in Political Science

Introduction

• Book Reference: "Politics and Social Science" by W.J.M. McKenzie
  • Old and somewhat out of date but contains interesting ideas.
  • Written during a time of reaction against political science as a discipline.
• Purpose of Lecture: Provide a broad overview of the social scientific approach, particularly in international relations.

Theories in Politics

• Definition: Series of tested propositions or hypotheses about cause and effect.
• Purpose: Explain and simplify complex social phenomena.
  • Theories are simplifications and are not complete representations of reality.
  • Must capture enough reality to be useful.

Functions of Theories

1. Description

   • Observation and precise description of phenomena.
   • Importance of language: Words matter in accurately describing phenomena.

2. Explanation

   • Understanding causes and establishing hypotheses.
   • Differentiating between causation and correlation.
   • Testing hypotheses through observation and analysis.

3. Prediction

   • Theories should allow for prediction of outcomes.
   • Retro-diction: Testing theories against historical data.

Key Vocabulary

• Dependent Variable: The outcome or phenomenon being explained.
• Independent Variables: Factors or causes identified that influence the dependent variable.
  • Example: War as a dependent variable influenced by regime type, resources, religion, etc.

Testing Theories

• Develop hypotheses and test them for causation, not just correlation.
• Predictive Success: Generally, 7-8 times out of 10 is considered good in social sciences.
• Considerations: Always account for complexity, unpredictability, and error terms.
  • Use of "ceteris paribus" (all other things being equal) to simplify analyses.

Conclusion

• The complexity of social phenomena makes prediction difficult.
• The goal is to refine theories to improve predictive accuracy in social science contexts.