Overview
This week’s stock market outlook centers on the expiration of paused tariffs, ongoing market volatility, major breakouts in key tickers like BMNR, and anticipation of significant trading opportunities. Notable momentum trades, economic events, and earnings reports are highlighted amid a parabolic market rally.
Market & Economic Updates
- The temporary suspension on Trump-era tariffs ends Wednesday, with “take it or leave it” letters sent to 12 countries.
- Markets rallied to all-time highs, with the SPY posting a double top near 626 intraday.
- The tariff deadline (July 9th) could trigger significant market reactions and affect inflation and interest rate forecasts.
- The current rally is compared to previous V-shaped recoveries, with potential for a healthy pullback.
- Pullbacks can offer both buying and shorting opportunities due to increased volatility.
- This week’s economic calendar is relatively light, with FOMC minutes set for Wednesday and initial jobless claims on Thursday.
Key Stock Highlights
- BMNR surged over 800% last week, driven by news and a new board chairman, making it a short-term trading focus.
- Key BMNR levels: $130 and $160 as resistance, $100 as psychological support.
- Apple is approaching significant resistance at $215 with a large sell wall.
- Other notable setups: GDS (data center in China, strong call buying), RUN (solar sector momentum, watch for $10.80 breakout), SLV (silver ETF, key level near $34), and TMC and CRWV for upside, SERV for downside plays depending on breakout/breakdown levels.
Notable Trades & Momentum Plays
- Massive $58 million call trade on CNC (Centene), expiring January 2027, after a steep price drop.
- TMC: watch for breakout above $7.35 for upside.
- CRWV: watch for breakout above $166.50 for upside.
- SERV: monitor for possible breakdown below $10.60.
Trading Strategies & Recommendations
- Emphasize tight stop losses and reasonable position sizes for momentum trades.
- Watch for key breakout or support levels before entering trades, especially in highly volatile tickers.
- Use past market behavior as context, but remain adaptable to current price action.
- Consider risk/reward scenarios, particularly in parabolic or rapidly consolidating stocks.
Decisions
- Highlight BMNR, TMC, CRWV, SERV, and CNC as key stocks to watch/trade this week.
Action Items
- July 9 – All traders: Monitor market reaction to tariff suspension expiration.
- Wednesday, 2 p.m. ET – All traders: Watch for market moves during FOMC minutes release.
- Thursday – All traders: Track Delta Airlines earnings for the start of earnings season.
- TBD – All traders: Review confirmation on the CNC options trade details in following updates.
Key Dates / Deadlines
- July 9: Tariff suspension expires; letters sent to 12 countries.
- July 10: FOMC minutes at 2 p.m. ET.
- July 11: Initial jobless claims, Delta Airlines earnings.
Questions / Follow-Ups
- Await confirmation on whether CNC's large options trade was a day trade or a long-term position.