Fertility Rate Overview
The topic of fertility rate, also known as total fertility rate (TFR), measures the average number of children a woman would have during her lifetime. This is a period metric summarizing fertility rates across all age groups within a specific year.
Historical Trends
- Pre-modern Era: Fertility rates ranged from 4.5 to 7 children per woman.
- 1960s: Global average fertility rate was around 5 children per woman.
- 2021: Halved to around 2.4 children per woman.
Factors Affecting Fertility Rate Decline
- Empowerment of Women
- Increased education and labor force participation.
- Strengthening women's rights.
- Child Mortality
- Declining rates lead to reduced fertility as child "hoarding" becomes less necessary.
- Economic & Social Changes
- Rising costs of child upbringing and decline of child labor.
Global and Country-Specific Trends
- Global Decline: Fertility has halved since 1965.
- Country Examples:
- Iran: From 6.3 children per woman in 1985 to 1.7 in 2022.
- Thailand: From 6.3 in 1950 to 1.3 today.
Rapid Fertility Decline
- Countries today transition faster from high to low fertility compared to past centuries.
- Example: Iran reduced fertility from over 6 to below 3 in just a decade.
Long-Run Fertility Trends
- Historical Europe: High fertility even in the richest countries before 1790.
- Modern Changes: Shift towards fewer children as mortality decreases.
Birth Rates
- 1950: 90 million births.
- 2022: 130 million births (~350,000 daily).
Explanation for Declining Fertility
- Women's Empowerment
- Education reduces "price" of having children.
- Improved contraceptive knowledge and usage.
- Increased Status of Children
- Lower child mortality encourages resource investment in fewer children.
Cultural Influences
- Role models and media influence family size norms.
- France's early fertility decline indicates social norm shifts played a key role.
Family Planning and Contraception
- Availability and use of contraception directly influence fertility rates.
- Important to meet the "unmet need" for contraception.
Coercive Policies
- China's One-Child Policy: Significant, but fertility was declining pre-policy.
Conclusion
- Education and economic opportunities for women, combined with technological advances, have driven global fertility rates down.
- Continued focus on women's empowerment and family planning is crucial to maintaining these trends.