The Future of Humanity: The Long View

Introduction

Current Concerns: Rapid climate change, political division, human greed make future seem insecure.
Historical Perspective: Every generation thinks it's witnessing the apocalypse; leads to short-term thinking.
Critical Moment: We might actually be at a crucial juncture in human history.

Modern Humans: Arose ~200,000 years ago; good at tool-making, storytelling, abstract thinking.
Population Growth
- Early years: Low surpluses in food, high survival challenges.
- Agricultural Revolution: Significant increase in population (~300 million after 10,000 years).
- Industrial Revolution: Rapid growth; 1 billion by 1800, 8 billion today.
Current Stats: 117 billion humans ever born, 109 billion have died; 7% of all humans ever are alive today.

Stability and Peak: UN estimates peak around 2100 with 125 million born each year.
Scenarios for Extinction: Human ingenuity could prolong or shorten lifespan; self-destruction vs. problem-solving capabilities.

Mammalian Lifespan: Average ~1 million years.
Assumptions for Humans: Survive another 800,000 years, 125 million births/year.
Future Population: ~100 trillion future humans; today's population is just 0.008% of all humans who could ever live.
Optimistic View: Matching longest-living mammals, future population could be 1.2 quadrillion.
Solar Lifespan: Earth habitable for ~500 million more years.

Technological Advances: From moon worship to moon landing; future possibilities.
Expansion
- Colonizing other planets or creating artificial worlds.
- Abundant resources in solar system (asteroid belt, Kuiper belt).
Civilization Spanning Solar System: Basis for many more individuals, sustainability for millions of years.
Safety in Numbers: Spreading out reduces extinction risk, requires solar system-wide catastrophe.

Milky Way Colonization: 100 billion stars, 10 billion years, 100 million births/year.
Potential Lives: ~100 octillion lives (1 with 29 zeros).
Expansion Beyond Milky Way: Merging with Andromeda, red dwarfs' longevity, energy around black holes.
Tredecillion Potential Lives: A million, trillion, trillion, trillion potential lives.

Impact on Future: Decisions today affect countless future humans.
Highpoint in History: Present day is crucial for setting up a wonderful world for future generations.
Disenfranchised Unborn: Most humans will live in the future; our actions today determine their existence.
Need for Long-term Thinking: Thinking of present as beginning, not end, for creating a better future.

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