It's Professor Dave, I'm a Cancer, what about you? After getting through all of the astronomy concepts in this series, we've found how it's quite easy to put certain common beliefs into perspective, like our analysis of the flat Earth model that we just went over. Are there any other concepts like this that ought to be investigated?
I can think of one more. A significant percentage of the global population believes in astrology, which is the notion that the positions of the planets and stars in the night sky have influence over events that take place on Earth. According to Western astrology, the locations of the planets along the ecliptic and their spatial relationship to the twelve constellations of the zodiac is not arbitrary, as science would suggest. Their positions at your birth determine aspects of your personality. and their positions on any given day, determine things that will happen to you.
Can this be true? Can the validity of this claim be tested? It absolutely can.
Let's go through an examination of astrology now and see if we can straighten this out once and for all. This analysis will occur in two parts. Later we will look at what's in charts and horoscopes, but first let's see if we can find a mechanism of action.
Astrologers claim that the positions of celestial objects affect us. If so, then how? Thousands of years ago, when these planets were regarded as gods, it may have sufficed to simply say magic, or divine action, and then go about your day. But in the modern era, we have science. We have instrumentation.
We have the ability to learn all about the universe, so if there is something happening here, we should be able to detect it. Measure it, categorize it. So what kind of influence is being exerted by these planets and stars on the earth and the people on it?
Well, let's see. There are four fundamental forces. The strong and weak nuclear forces, electromagnetism, and gravity.
The nuclear forces operate on the dimensions of an atomic nucleus, so those are out for sure. Magnetism and gravity, on the other hand, have no limit in terms of distance. so let's take a closer look at those.
Keep in mind, we understand these two forces very well. We have equations that allow us to calculate the magnitude of the electromagnetic force or gravitational force between two objects. These equations are indisputable.
They predict the behavior of objects down to extreme levels of precision, and with repeated flawless accuracy. These equations describe. the universe. Now, if we try to plug in some numbers, like the masses of celestial objects and the distances to them, we find that all the stars we see in the night sky are so incredibly far away that they just can't affect us.
Even the nearby planets in our solar system have a very limited effect. The abnormally powerful magnetic field of Jupiter has dramatically less influence on human beings than that of a toaster oven in the next room. The gravity of these far away objects pulls on us less than the car in your driveway.
And not just by a little, by several orders of magnitude. So if either of these forces are proposed to be the mechanism by which astrology operates, then case closed, it's bogus. The math doesn't lie.
But that's not the only problem. Even if the magnitude of these forces was significant enough to affect us, as is certainly true. of the gravity exerted by the sun and the moon, and to a much lesser extent Jupiter and Saturn, due to their size and proximity, how can gravity dictate your personality at birth? How can gravity, the force of attraction between all matter, determine something as subtle as your disposition?
In the biology series, we learned about genetics and gene expression. So how can astrology fit with all of that? The answer is simple. It can't. Astrology predates biology.
It predates all of modern science by a long shot. And that's the point. Astrology is a collection of things that we thought of before we knew anything, in a time when we thought the Earth was the center of the universe. But the retrograde motion of a planet is not a deity turning around in the sky. It's just the visual effect of one planet passing another in their respective orbits.
The signs of the zodiac don't actually mean anything. They are just imaginary pictures we made up by playing connect the dots with stars that are strewn about at random. We made water constellations to remind us about stormy seasons at sea, and Virgo with her sheaf of grain to remind us of the harvest.
These were simple mnemonic devices that had mystical connotations painted upon them by ancient generations. Who are seeking meaning in a universe without any. We have been replacing mysticism and pseudoscience with real science since the time of Galileo, and astronomy is one such science.
Of all the thousands of astronomers around the world, people who study planets and stars for a living, there are precisely zero that believe in astrology. Just let that sink in for a moment. Ten out of ten professional space scientists agree.
Astrology is not a thing. Once you learn enough science, the pseudoscience inevitably gets the boot. Now let's say you're still not convinced.
Perhaps you don't know about these equations, and you don't trust the scientists in the first place. That's fair, we should be able to make up our own minds, so let's come at this from a different angle. Let's say astrology is true.
Let's say that the planets and stars do influence events on Earth, and we just can't understand how. It is beyond our ability to comprehend the mechanism of action at this point in time. If this were the case, astrologers still ought to be able to make predictions that end up correlating with reality. If the positions of celestial objects are indeed relevant, we should be able to do some experiments and collect some evidence that demonstrates this relevance. Well, as it happens, a wide variety of experiments have been done.
Some experiments have asked professional astrologers to match people to their respective natal charts based on their psychological profiles. They never succeed in a statistically significant way, beyond what random chance would allow. If astrology was true, wouldn't people who study it be able to apply its tenets as consistently scientists apply science?
Well, perhaps they are bad astrologers, one might say. They don't know what they're doing, so that doesn't prove anything. Very well, then what if we gather huge amounts of data on certain sets of people? Some studies have taken hundreds of people, all born within a couple minutes of each other, that are now adults, and examined a huge variety of their characteristics. Disposition, income, profession, relationship status.
and dozens more. The planets were in the same positions for the births of all of these people, so there should be some kind of similarity between them. Something, anything. And yet, no trends can be found whatsoever for any of these traits and circumstances. They are no more alike than any random assortment of people of similar age.
Still too many variables, you say? Unreliable reporting of time of birth? Too much distance between the locations of birth? Alright, no problem, let's get even more specific than that. Two people born within seconds of one another in the exact same location.
Fraternal twins. According to astrology, these children have precisely identical charts, and should therefore be essentially identical people. Same sky, same planets.
Same constellations, same location, everything is the same, so they necessarily have the same chart. If you haven't been convinced of anything yet, then no further study can be cited to convince you, so use your personal experience. Go ahead and think of all the fraternal twins you have ever known. Are they identical?
All of them? Definitely not. Some are rather similar, and some couldn't be more different, just like all siblings. But astrology would require that these similarities exist, without exception.
That fraternal twins do not have precisely identical personalities is definitive proof that astrology is false. Maybe you're still not satisfied. Let's say you don't have a twin and never knew any. How can you verify things for yourself?
Well, you have a sun sign, you have a natal chart, and horoscopes that should apply to you. What about individual horoscopes, then? Studies have been performed whereby test subjects with birthdays scattered throughout the year are given horoscopes and are told that they are highly specific to their sign.
High percentages of the subjects reported that their reading was very accurate and insightful, despite the fact that everyone got exactly the same horoscope. How can the same horoscope apply to everyone? It can't.
That defies what astrology proposes. We should all get different horoscopes and natal charts. So how can everyone identify with the same one? That's very easy to answer.
Most horoscopes and charts are vague, listing more positive traits than negative ones. Everyone wants to believe that they are compassionate, creative, intuitive, wise, or other such traits. Even weaknesses listed are usually pretty easy to swallow, like Overly trusting, or too humble, or having high standards for oneself. Things that have a positive spin to them.
Most people will agree that they are these things, even if they objectively are not. Furthermore, on any given day, look up your horoscope from ten different sources. If astrology is true, they should all agree to an extent. But you can bet a lot of money that they will not.
Some will tell you to be careful with money. Some will tell you to take a chance today. Nothing said will mean much, and none of them will correlate.
Horoscopes are just too vague to have any real meaning, as they do not predict things as concretely as science does. Science says that if you throw this object at this angle and with this initial velocity, according to this equation, it will land on this precise spot at this precise time. And lo and behold, it does.
Every single time. The equation, therefore, must correlate with reality. Horoscopes do not say anything so falsifiable. If they said that today a man named Kyle Evans will ask you if you want half of his tuna sandwich and then a car horn will honk three times before you find a two dollar bill under a mailbox, and that highly specific event did indeed happen to every single person for whom that horoscope applies.
then astrology would be in business. But this is never the case. It's always something along the lines of there will be an important opportunity, or you will reconnect with someone, or you will have to make a decision today. These are things that apply to pretty much everyone every day of their lives, and that's what makes astrology a pseudoscience.
It does not regularly make rigorously falsifiable claims, and when it does, they are immediately falsified. Anyone that is being honest with themselves must admit that these results demonstrate that there is no validity to astrology. When something makes falsifiable claims, which are then repeatedly falsified, that model must be rejected. If someone asks you to think of a number from one to ten, and then attempts to guess it, claiming that they are psychic, if they then proceed to guess incorrectly many times in We would conclude that they are not psychic. This is how science works.
For a theory to be valid, it must correlate existing data and make predictions. If those predictions don't work out, the theory is discarded. So the fact that astrology has stuck around is due to confirmation bias, plain and simple.
If the psychic guesses your number only two out of seven times, they are not psychic, they just guessed correctly two times by chance. Just like any of us might. But if someone reads their horoscope every day, and two times this week it correlated vaguely with events, they may still believe in astrology if they use those two days to confirm their bias and ignore the rest of the data. An equation that only predicts events two out of seven times is utterly useless in science, as it can't have a reliable correlation with reality. Therefore, neither do horoscopes.
You can demonstrate this to yourself by comparing your experiences with others that have the same sun sign as you. Try to objectively assess whether there is a correlation. If you're really serious, find someone born on the same day of the same year as you, even in the same region.
The two of you would absolutely have to be dramatically similar, as the tenets of astrology would apply to both of you. If the reality is anything less than this, astrology can't be true. Because in order for it to be true, its predictions must hold at all times, not just when things work out by chance.
So what's the big deal, you may be asking? Even if astrology isn't true, who is it hurting? Well, it's more harmful than you may think, especially when people in power subscribe to it.
When Ronald Reagan was in office as the President of the United States, First Lady Nancy Reagan hired an astrologer whose advice was quite influential on decisions made by the administration. Can you imagine if America was to declare war on a nation? because an astrologer advised it?
It doesn't even have to get this catastrophic. In general, when large segments of the public allow themselves to entertain pseudoscience and mysticism, it clouds their ability to apply reason and logic, which are needed to make informed political decisions. In short, we all need to agree on the nature of reality if we have any hope at unification against potential oppression. So things like astrology, while they may not be specifically immoral, are still counterproductive in the grand scheme of human development. So that's all there is to it.
Astrology is undeniably, inarguably, completely and utterly false. The positions of the stars and planets at the moment of your birth have no correlation with anything whatsoever regarding who you are and what happens to you on a day-to-day basis. It is nothing more than a stubborn relic from ancient times, when mysticism and science were one, and it has only survived for one reason.
It's fun. People like it. They like the idea of it and how it makes them feel.
The notion that the universe and everything in it is deeply intertwined with the trivialities of humanity is comforting, that can't be denied. But it's also absurd. It's hubris on the grandest scale. So while it may not be such a big deal to read your horoscope for fun, it would be far better for us to grow as a species and leave this relic behind for good.
There are those who would argue that something would be lost in discarding astrology, an appreciation for the magic of the night sky. But they are just plain wrong. Can you leave this primitive construct behind and actually learn about these objects?
Absorbing what astronomers have come to understand over the centuries, as we have done together throughout this astronomy series, your reverence for these objects is necessarily magnified a thousandfold. Planets, stars, galaxies, the infinite potential of the universe, which calls out to us, begging us to grow up and tame it. The deafening silence that is our unknown future. is smiling down at us in the guise of a billion twinkling stars.
These worlds are ours for the taking, but only if we rise to the challenge, and set our efforts on the acquisition of real knowledge. For those of you that take this road as your own, I'll see you next time, no matter which chapter is next for you. ProfessorDaveExplains at gmail.com.