Political and Economic Volatility in Modern Times

Key Points

Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump

• Date: 14th July
• Incident: Donald Trump injured lightly in an assassination attempt
• Perpetrator: 20-year-old registered Republican who donated to Democrats
• Investigation: Secret Service, local law enforcement, and FBI

Political Volatility in the United States

• Once-in-a-generation political rearrangement
  • U.S. follows a single-member district political system
    • Vote for a single person representing a specific geography
    • Weak parties forming coalitions of multiple factions
  • Example: Republican Party coalitions (budget concerns, national security, business regulation, social conservatives)
• Current Changes
  • Business, national security, and fiscal communities leaving the Republican Party
  • Trump attracting new groups (e.g., union voters, Hispanics)

Economic Volatility Globally

• Post-WWII Global Consensus
  • U.S. provided security and open markets during the Cold War
  • Enabled rise of allies like Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and later China
• System Breakdown Reasons
  • U.S. can no longer afford to maintain global security coverage
  • Urbanization and demographic shifts globally leading to fewer workers
    • Significant decline expected in workforce by the 2020s

Consequences and Predictions

• Change and Violence
  • Economic shifts and political movements often lead to societal stress
  • Historical comparisons: Great Depression, Reconstruction, Civil War
  • Anticipated conflicts: Ongoing in Ukraine, potential in China
• Impact on U.S.
  • Net positive change expected long-term
  • Transitional period likely to generate instability and violence