Weekly Economic Insights and Trends

Sep 16, 2024

Week in Charts Lecture Notes

Host: Charlie Blell


Introduction

  • Recap of weekly charts and themes.
  • Promotion for Creative Planning services:
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Topics Discussed

  1. Inflation Trends

    • Headline inflation downtrend continues.
    • Lowest rate of inflation since February 2021 at 2.5%.
    • Core CPI slightly disappointing at 3.3%.
    • Notable declines in energy prices and used cars.
    • Shelter component slightly increased, impacting core CPI.
    • Auto insurance rates up 51% over three years.
    • Health insurance premiums reported as down, but this is disputed.
  2. Federal Reserve (Fed) Actions

    • Upcoming FOMC meeting; public poll results on rate adjustments.
    • Market expectations split on 25 or 50 basis point cuts.
    • Discussion on Fed's potential actions vs. what they should do.
    • Impact of inflation trends on Fed decisions.
  3. Federal Deficit and Spending

    • Recent increase in federal spending and deficits.
    • Current deficit at $2 trillion during economic expansion.
    • National debt concerns with potential recession impacts.
  4. Currency and Markets

    • U.S. dollar trends lower with real interest rates.
    • Gold and Bitcoin benefiting from current economic conditions.
  5. Big Tech Performance

    • NASDAQ 100's unprecedented decade of growth.
    • Top performers: NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, Apple, Google.
    • Historical trends and future expectations for tech stocks.
  6. Watch Market Trends

    • Rolex watch prices peaked in March 2022, down 30% since.
    • Increased supply and potential decreases in demand.
  7. Consumer Financial Health

    • Rising delinquencies and lower savings rates.
    • Credit card and auto loan delinquencies highest in over a decade.
    • Big Lots bankruptcy as a reflection of consumer struggles.
  8. Positive Economic Indicators

    • Wages outpacing inflation for 16 consecutive months.
    • Lower food price inflation.
    • Real wage gains as a sign of prosperity.

Conclusion

  • Encouragement to subscribe for more content.
  • Optimism for continued positive economic trends.

Note: These notes are summarized for educational purposes focusing on key points from the lecture. For a more detailed analysis, consider engaging with specific economic reports or financial advisories.