Transcript for:
Strategi Trading Forex oleh Kei

Hello everyone, how are you? This is Kei. So today let me run the forex tester again and show you some entry and exit examples. So let me switch the screen. Okay and here is forex tester and I will be running the forex tester today again to show the entry and exit example.

So usually when I run the forex tester I have the 4 hour time frame here and 1 hour time frame is this one. And here is the 5 minute time frame. So I use these 3 different time frames and show you entry and exit examples.

So now as you look at the 4 hour chart, it's flat range and Chikou span also touching. And 1 hour is also flat. So now I don't look at the 5 minute chart.

I'm simply Looking at the 4 hour first. Until 4 hour goes bearish, looks like it's gonna bearish, right? Because it's about to break the support. So until 4 hour become bearish, I keep running the chart.

So what's good about the Forex Tester is that you don't see the future market. So you can trade as if this is the live market. So let me go ahead and run the chart. Move the candlestick on M5 one by one until 4 hours goes bearish.

So let me see. So this is like the 7th or 8th Forex tester session video for the last 2 months. So it's been a main topic in this community.

Okay, so now I start to see downtrend and it's about to break the support but four hour is still flat it's cause I'm still touching so most likely I wait for the breakout in this case to be able to sell so let me see but with that with this kind of scenarios in mind you monitor chart yeah you have to kind of think ahead what scenarios what may happen in near future and when that really happens you act you move So don't simply run the chart without thinking anything. Always think about the scenarios and then run the chart. Okay, so now there was a downtrend.

So actually here, there was a downtrend already. For our Kumo down, Kijunsensen, Tenkan-sen down, Chikou-span just became below the candlestick, right? And one hour time frame also is showing downtrend.

Now, Kumo down, Kijunsensen down, Tenkan sen down, Chikou-Span below candles. So this is where exactly I look for entry to sell. In this case, I never buy because buy would be against the major direction.

I'm a trend follower, so I always look for the selling opportunities. So now I look for the selling opportunity on 5-minute time frame. So then let's see if I... Yeah, if I check the five minute, then I have a band walking and also there is a doji breakout. There are multiple dojis and multiple insights.

Let me just zoom in. So what I see here is I see bearishness. So I will sell now. But I'm seeing that the market is downtrend. It has been on the consecutive bearish in waves.

And then also this the last bearish bar. actually made the 4 hour 1 hour bearish. So this is strong. This was a sign of the new downtrend. And then now the prices between the Bollinger Bands deviations 1 and 2. And then there are two little dojis here.

And there was an inside breakout here too. And then there was another inside breakout here. And then another bigger inside breakout here too.

So I see like three inside bars ever since this big bearish bar and then it just broke and that's why this the latest candlestick became very big because of this multiple three inside bars and two doji's breakout so this is a sign of the new downtrend so i will take that as entry confirmation to sell so then um so let's see now i will put the market order And I risk 1%. two stop loss and i put the stop loss let's say in this case i would put the stop loss above here which is 32 pips above my position and sell so now i sold my position here and again here is my stop loss and as you may know i take two positions and two stop losses so i do exactly the same again another one percent and put the stop loss above the two top double a double top 32 pips above and then execute sell. So I just took two sells and two stop losses. So and I risk 2% to stop loss.

So that means in case if the market goes bullish and hit the stop losses, I will lose 2% of my account. Okay, so let's see how it goes. Now I monitor by five minute chart.

and hopefully the market goes bearish until and i monitor until break even okay so let's see okay so now the market initially goes down towards my direction and now there is a very small reversing wave potential so let's see if it breaks bearish this way um okay so retracement so some retracement right now so let's see if it goes bearish towards that this direction okay now there was a nice pin bar reverse pin bar and doji reverse so when i see this i still expect the market goes downtrend this way on the reversed anyway because higher time frames bearish higher time frame four hours still bearish so i expect m5 also to have reverse and wave so i keep holding my trade Okay, now I think this is a good sign that there was a double top and neckline breakout on this 5-minute chart. So that means this is sellers are following the downtrend. So this is double top neckline breakout on M5 and I will become more confident that the market goes bearish this way.

So in this case, I can move the stop losses lower. I think I will lower the stop losses down above this outside bar now. Okay, so that in case the market goes bullish and hit the stop losses, now I will only lose 1%. Yeah, so because I lowered the stop losses because I saw this double top neckline breakout on the 5-minute.

So I lowered the risk for this particular trade. And I lower and lower until break-even. Break-even means the stop losses below my positions.

That's what I called the break-even line. So that even in case the market goes bullish and hit the stop losses, you know, I never lose. I don't lose.

If the market goes bullish right now, then I lose 1%, which is still small, but I lose. But if I move the stop losses below my positions, then even if the market goes bullish and hit the stop loss, I don't lose. So that's why I call it a break-even line.

So now let's see if the market goes bearish until I set a break-even line. So let's see. yeah i like this double top neckline breakout on m5 okay now the market broke the support broke the support previous support on the five minute chart so now i lower the stop losses to above the top above this double top so i lower and lower you know little by little to uh whenever i see these uh you know bearish confirmations but this is still too early to set break even because i'm only running i am only running pips of uh seven so if i'm lower the stop losses like this break even then next candlestick may hit the break even and then it may go down towards my direction so i won't be able to make these pips right uh in case the market goes bearish continuously so To me this is still too early to set break even so I will just keep my stop losses above the double top.

and continue to monitor. So now okay I like this pullback and pushback. Now pushback then most likely I think the market will be resisted by the previous support level and then goes bearish. That's my scenario. So let's see if that happens or not.

But with this kind of things in mind you monitor chart whenever you backtest or whenever you do live trade. You know, never monitor without thinking anything. You have to always create these scenarios, possible scenarios, and monitor at the same time.

Okay, now it looks like the market broke the support. So now, still, this is bearish. So now I'm expecting the market will be resisted by the neckline, which is over here on 1.0861.

be resisted and goes bearish. So let's say if that scenario becomes true. Okay so looks like now it was resisted exactly on the previous neckline and then now we have outside. Outside bar and doji.

So if doji and outside bar break out bearish, then most likely the market continues bearish in terms of the This is a five minute time frame perspective. Okay, so this is about the price action. But with this kind of things in mind, I monitor chart. So let's see.

So again, if I move the stop loss break even when I see downtrend like this, then my positions are already taken on the break even. So let's see if the market goes down or not. Okay, it's range. Okay, so now there's a new breakout. So this is good because he broke the previous doji and also the previous low which was down here 1.0847 so again he was resisted by the previous neckline and then now he broke the previous support right so this is a strong downtrend so now I'm running the pips of let's see how many it's uh 12 pips.

12 pips of running profit is still too small to set break even for me. So for now, I lower the stop losses above this outside. Above the outside. So now I'm only risking 5 pips times 2. So even if the market goes bullish and hit the stop losses, it's really small. Now the drawdown becomes like 0.2 or 3% only.

But still too early to set break even, so I continue monitor chart. So let me just delete these horizontal lines and see if the market goes bearish or not. Yeah, but I like this chart pattern so far. It has been bearish and inside bar breakout here. And then the market retraced, then double top, neckline breakout and broke the support.

Then it actually resisted by the previous neckline and then now it's going bearish so yeah when i see this price action i'm pretty confident that the market continues bearish without looking at the higher time frame i can also see that on this five minute time frame based on the price actions but let's see you know anything can happen from here out of nowhere it might be bullish so let's see We're not here to predict the future, but here to really see exactly what's happening within the market. So now the market went down towards my direction nicely. So let me see how many pips I'm running so far. I was running at 20 pips.

So 20 pips to me is still too early to set break even. I prefer to have around 30 pips running profit. so if it's 30 pips then that would be around here yeah around here would be 30 pips 28 pips or 30 pips will be down here so if the market reaches there i think i will move the stop losses to break even but let's see how it goes now we have new inside bar so let's see if this inside bar will be broken bearish then it may reach 30 pips to to set break even Okay, still new inside. Okay, inside bar broken bootish. So this is now retracing.

So now in my mind I'm thinking whether the market will be resisted by the previous support level which is 1.0847 or not. So let's see. Okay now it's reaching to the previous support and then it broke the previous support but now we have a big outside bar.

Big outside bar. So let's see if this outside bar will be broken bearish. Okay the market continues bullish so now it's going to the previous previous minor low this one but let's see. Now we have Doji reverse. So this Doji reverse is one of the reverse patterns so the market may go bearish to this direction because higher time frame still downtrend.

Okay still consolidating. Okay, now somehow it's going bearish very gradually. So still I don't want to set break even.

It may go up to my positions or slightly above maybe this doji resistance. Then may go down this way too. So this is still too early to set break even.

Okay, now looks like the market is going down. We have new inside. So let's see if this inside will be broken bearish.

Okay, it looks like it's losing its momentum now. But let's see. Okay, now I see a descending P wave over here.

So this is another pattern of the market where there is a potential breakout bearish. In this case, I can see that seller is the dominant over buyers. Ever since this time, ever since this candlestick, it has been descending P-Wave.

So sooner or later, I think the market breaks the P-Wave bearish. Then I will move the stop losses below my positions, break even. Okay, still within the P wave, I would say. Okay, looks like the P wave is now broken.

And now this becomes a flat range. This is becoming range, so I will just delete these ones. I'm just trying to, you know, verbalize everything I see right now in the market.

Let's see. Okay, now let me check 4 hours. If 4 hours flat now, then I have to do... I have to move the stop losses.

So let me see, 4 hours is okay, now flat. Now I see Kumo flat, Kijunsensen flat within the 4 hour time frame. So now that means the market may be trace. It may be trace to Tenkan and Kijunsensen in the 4 hours.

And I don't want to miss out these potential pips now. So now coming back to 5 minute time frame. So now I see that there's a range. So I can just exit right now because this range may be broken bullish.

Well, I would say that there was a previous resistance level here. Hold on, let me just use it. There's a previous resistance here, so I could lower the stop losses above that minor resistance.

So I'm fixing 11 or 12 pips in this trade. I fix a profit of this amount because the market is retracing. It may retrace, but at the same time it may go down this way too because when you see Kumo Kijunsensen flat in higher time frames, the chance is now 50-50 whether it goes bullish or bearish.

And if you trade at the 50-50 chance, then that would be gambling. So that's why I at least fix some profit. And then see if it continues bearish.

If it does, of course I follow, but if it doesn't, then I just take profit here too. So this is still, you know, getting some reward whenever higher time frames now flat. So let's see how this one takes place. I will just move the candles for now to see if the market hits the stop losses or continues bearish. In the live market, I usually leave the chart like this.

And see, I will come back maybe three hours, four hours later and see how it happens. It's about to hit the stop loss now. Okay, somehow it didn't at this outside. So looks like the market was resisted by the previous minor resistance. So then now it's gradually going down, but 4 hours still flat.

4 hour time frame still flat. So it may retrace any time. So let's see how it plays out.

Okay now it's going bearish. So I think in this case 4 hours flat. So I lowered two stop losses above this minor resistance and then I'm fixing now 14 pips or 15 pips of profit.

Again I enter sell here above and then my stop losses are down here now. So 4 hours flat so that means the market may be supported by here around this area. and goes bullish and I may take profit then. But if it breaks the support level bearish, then that means it continues bearish. So I continue to follow again.

So let's see how it plays out. But this is my most important strategy to not to lose. In this case, even if the market goes bullish, you have 15 pips of profit. 15 pips of profit, but if it goes further down, then you will take you know much more profit So this is win or more win game Which you also want to play and that's how I manage my stop losses every time when I run profit So, let's see how it goes.

So support level was previously here. So let's see if he breaks the support or not Okay. Now the support level is broken So now 4 hour is again bearish I think.

Oh 4 hours not bearish yet because there was a previous bigger candlestick. So 4 hour will be bearish if the market breaks this support 1.0833. Let me delete this line.

Okay and this one too let me delete. So now I'm monitoring and see if the market breaks the 4 hour support. 1.0833 and then 4 hour becomes bearish. But it's good that it broke the 5 minute support 5 minute range bearish. So this can be the sign of the new downtrend.

So let's see. But with these kind of things in mind, I monitor chart. So for now, 4 hour still flat.

So I keep my stop losses here because it may retrace. Okay, now the positions hit by the by the by these stop losses hit because of the spread. Spread took the you know stop losses.

The spread I set on this trading view, sorry the forex tester is a one pip so it took actually the stop losses by the spread. But this is how I realistically and exit my trade and take profit when higher time frame becomes flat. So this time it was only 15 pips but it could be 30 pips, it could be 50 pips or 100 pips.

No matter how many pips I'm winning the trade, this is how I secure my profits. And if the market goes bearish again, I re-enter sell again and follow the new downtrend. But at least for now, 4 hour is flat. For our time frame is flat like this, so it's just safer to just exit right now because it may continue bullish again to Kijunsen Sen. It may break Tenkan Sen and may go up to Kijunsen Sen. So it's safer to just exit right now and at least take some profit and leave chart.

So that's how I exit my trade. Just in case, let's run the chart a little bit more and see how it plays out. In this one, let's see, it keeps ranging and looks like it broke the support and it continues range.

Let's see, yeah, looks like it's just ranging and now it's a bit retracing now, right? So yeah, when 4 hours flat, then it goes like sideways, like this way, or a bit retracing, so... If I didn't put the stop losses below here, then yeah, I may have exited maybe here or here. So yeah and also I had to wait for such a long time to exit anyways.

So yeah it's better to just exit the trade. In live trade you just exit trade so that you can look for some new opportunities on other markets. That's also important in terms of time efficiency. But today just want to show how I enter exit trades with some profit. So that was the topic for today.

So thank you very much everyone. I hope you have a great day. Till I see you next time, please stay healthy, stay safe, stay gold.

Bye for now. Matane. Thank you.