Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis

Introduction

Lecturer: Professor John J. Mearsheimer
Introduced by: Michael Volchak
- Background on Volchak: University of Chicago alumnus, influenced by Mearsheimer, co-founded the Model United Nations of UChicago.

America's Core Strategic Interests: Areas where the US would fight and die:
- Europe
- Northeast Asia
- Persian Gulf
Importance of Europe historically but shift towards Asia due to China's rise.
Ukraine is geographically and strategically important in Europe.
Ukraine's divided ethnic and linguistic landscape.
- Western Ukraine: EU and NATO aspirations.
- Eastern Ukraine: Strong ties with Russia.
Dependency on Russian natural gas in Europe, especially Germany and Eastern European countries.

Western Actions: Principal cause.
- Aim to integrate Ukraine into the Western orbit, a move Russia opposes.
- Strategy includes NATO expansion, EU expansion, and promoting democracy (Orange Revolution).
NATO Expansion: Major catalyst.
- Post-Cold War movement of NATO eastward.
- Russia's objections since mid-1990s.
- Bucharest Summit (April 2008): Decision to incorporate Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, leading to the Georgian war.
EU Expansion: Economic integration into the West.
Promotion of Democracy: Viewed by Russia and China as regime change attempts.

November 2013: Yanukovych's pivot to Russia over EU, spurring protests.
February 2014:
- Increased violence and deaths in protests.
- Coup on February 22, Yanukovych flees.
Post-Coup: Russian military response.

Strategic interests and response to Western encroachment.
Comparisons to US Monroe Doctrine.
Avoidance of direct military confrontations but leveraging influence in regions like Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

Misinterpretation of Putin’s ambitions: Not creating a Greater Russia but reacting to Western moves.
Increased aggression not seen prior to the crisis.
Western actions: Not a benign influence.
NATO expansion post-crisis: Driven by outdated 21st-century views ignoring balance of power politics.

Increasing sanctions and pressure on Russia.
Doubling down on aggressive policies perceived as flawed by Mearsheimer.
Realistic assessment: Economic pressures are less impactful on core security interests.
Risk of provoking nuclear threats by backing Russia into a corner.

Neutral Ukraine: As a buffer state between NATO and Russia.
Policy Adjustments:
- Explicitly abandon NATO expansion.
- Economic rescue plan including Russia.
- Guarantee minority rights within Ukraine.
Realism till Pivot to Asia: Acknowledge changing strategic priorities with China’s rise.

Cold War 2.0?: Unlikely; Russia is not the Soviet Union.
US Focus Shift to Asia: Pivot driven by China’s rise.
European Security & NATO: Potential decline of NATO relevance.
Asian Allies: Concern over US reliability.
Iran and Syria: Need Russian cooperation; strained relations could complicate situations.
Crimea: Permanently under Russian control.
Ukraine: Risks being wrecked due to ongoing conflict.
Optimism for Multilateral Cooperation: Includes perspectives of balancing power and diplomacy.

Advocates for a neutral Ukraine as a pragmatic solution.
Realistic expectations about the difficulty in changing current policies due to entrenched political stances in the West.
Critics’ minority stance and challenges in influencing mainstream perspectives.