hi friends in this video I want to speak about a very very popular investing style of picking stocks which are trading at 52 we low price and in this video I'll take three practical examples of stocks which are trading at 52 we low prices right now so that you understand the risk associated with these stocks and also the reward potentiality with these stocks right so the first thing we are going to do is we are going to go to nsse website and I have given you the link in the description or in the pinned comments what you're are going to see is a readymade screener that the NSE website has built which is called New 52 we high and low what you will see here is that if you click on 52 week low you're going to see around 49 stocks right now at the time of recording this stock and here you are going to see the stocks arranged in the alphabetical order and giving you the last tradit price of these stocks the first stock that I'm going to pick up from this list is equita small Finance bank because many of my community members left a comment saying that Rahul can you speak about IA small Finance bank because that has been going down so let me give you the fundamental analysis of UTA small Finance Bank let me give you the risk associated with it and what are the potential rewards associated with this bank people who do not know me my name is Rahul Jan and I'm a full-time investor I also have a YouTube member Community if you're not yet a member consider subscribing to my YouTube member Community because I share in-depth analysis of stocks mutual funds and various other assets in a practical manner it will help you improve your investing style try it for 1 month and I'm pretty confident that you're going to love it with that let's go to IA small Finance Bank bank so stock number one is Uta small Finance Bank limited have a look at my screen and you will see that in the last one year stock is now trading at the bottom here somewhere here it has made the new 52 we low price at around 75 rupees or 75 level now a natural question is that Rahul why would somebody invest in a falling stock because it might fall further absolutely it can fall further so the risk of investing in such stocks is that you do not know where the bottom is it might very well be a falling knife that you're trying to catch but at the same time in terms of the rewards if this stock go back to let's say it's this higher level of 114 rupees level in that case you have potential chances of making around 40 to 50% of gains right so that's the theory about risk and rewards so we really need to find out what are the chances of this stock falling further versus it going back to its previous high levels right so for that what we really need to find out is what has caused this last one years of fall in the stock and if there is a long-term fundamental issue with this particular stock then this might not be a good investment but if there is only a short-term fundamental issue or some other problem then we might find this stock very attractive right I'm not giving any stock recommendation I'm just telling you how to go about investing in stocks which are 52 we low price also called beaten down stocks let's quickly have a look at the last four to five quarters and try to make some sense out of what is going on between equa small Finance bank and first thing you will quickly notice is that the daily average cost of funds for the last five quarters has been going up it's not a good sign but to be honest Hest this has been happening with majority of the banks because of the liquidity problem that the banks are facing right now because of the higher repo rate that we have seen from RBI right so that is fine but as a result of that what has happened is the net interest margin which is how much of Interest the bank is earning versus how much of the interest the bank is paying to its depositors if you see that is coming down as a result of higher cost of funds right so overall you can see that in the last four to five quarters the kpis have not been really good for this particular bank but more importantly if you notice the credit cost here again what is credit cost I explained that on my YouTube member Community these are the basic concept that you really need to understand if you're analyzing stocks so coming back to credit cost this is the cost that a bank or a financial institution incurs when they're underwriting credit so for example they will have to make Provisions for their bed debts they will have to write off the bed debts itself right so there are a bunch of cost associated with underwriting a credit and that is what is called credit cost here and if you see the credit cost for this company has been going up in the last five quarters in fact in the q1 of FY 25 it has gone massively High 3.52% Why has that happened is that a red flag here let me quickly give you a commentary here that this has happened mainly because if you read this commentary very recently RBI published a new guideline that if a small Finance Bank like AA small Finance Bank want to become a universal bank then their NPA needs to be less than 1% and if you see last quarter bank's NPA was 1.12% how do you bring the NPA down simply you have to create more Provisions right and that is what precisely the bank has done they have increase their provision coverage ratio which is PCR and that is what you can see here very quickly that it has gone up to 70% these are the fundamental level of analysis practically that you need to apply the concepts then only you can understand whether the red flag is a genuine red flag or whether that is not a red flog at all right let me now continue to talk about few more important parameters otherwise this video will become a dedicated video on equita small Finance Bank very quickly if you look at the disbursements of the loan which is the actual distribution of money to the borrowers if you see in the last quarter it has fallen down by around 29% and in fact in the last four quarters if you see there is not a massive growth here this is a red flag and it's a short-term fundamental issue that I can see in this Bank coming back to the loans which are the advances which are the loans sanctioned not distributed yet and if you see here then there is a reasonable growth here especially in the small business loans which is 27% of the growth and that is contributing the majority of their business which is 39% now coming to another important point which is the deposit Evolution and if you very quickly see current account savings account they are stacking at around 30% 31% while the term deposits which are also called fixed deposits take the Lo share which is at around 69% of their total deposits right now if you look at the growth in the last four quarters very quickly I've done some calculations here and you will see that year on year their term deposits have grown by 51% and that is where it cost more money for banks to borrow the money from the depositors while the Kasa which is current account and saving account which is totally like 0 to 3% of interest that the bank will have to pay to the depositor is only grown by 99.7% so fundamentally I see that their Kasa is not growing at a very high rate that I would like a bank to these are some of the fundamental issues that I see with the equas small Finance Bank it does not mean that we should not invest in this company again I'm not saying either way but I'm giving you a bit of a unbiased approach here and Analysis and teaching you how to go about analyzing any small Finance bank or any bank really moving on to two or three very important points that I really want you to understand number one is the profit and loss account and if you see very quickly you will notice that the pat is down by 88% 87% and you will see in the news and media that oh equ small Finance Bank profits are down by 88% but if you dig deeper you will see that the credit cost concept I explained to you they made a very high provisions of 304 cres versus 60 cres in q1 of fy2 24 so that has dragged the profitability here but if you look at the profitability before the provisions and write off it was down by only 9% so something is down by 9% versus 88% it's a huge difference and that's why I keep saying to people that please dig deep a little bit you will understand a bit more is there any other risk with equ small Finance Bank Rahul yes the other risk I see is that it is highly concentrated in the Tamil Naru and pondicherry area you see 49% of their loans are coming from that particular area and for any reason if there is a issue in that particular State maybe some unrest maybe some flooding or whatever situations may arise and in that case this Bank might get a hit right again these are the risk assessments you need to do before you take any investing decisions now three very very important question that people keep asking me number one one is that Rahul if I look at the promoters of this company they are 0% it's a bad company why should I invest in this company again here please try and understand that UTA small Finance banken small Finance Bank HDFC bank they will all have promoters as zero why that is there because of the mergers so when two companies merg what happens is that for example here equitas holding limited was merged with this equitas small Finance bank and when two companies merged the equitas holding limited the company ceases to exist so the promoters are not there anymore and what happens is that they get shares ofar small Finance Bank as the swap ratio and they become more or less either in the fi di or public so this is what happens this does not mean that the company is not run by the professionals it is run by the professionals and I personally do not take that as a red flag that has happened mainly because of the reverse mergin okay Rahul enough about a risk what about the potential rewards so if you look at the future potentials of this Bank you will see that the management is saying is that they want to grow their loan book for this year by 25% is it a good growth is it a bad growth I think it's a very good growth rate if you ask me because if I compare this with ujan for ujan small Finance Bank their management gave a guidance of around 20% so in my view that is slightly better than ujen small Finance Bank in terms of the guidance only I'm just comparing one parameter here I'm not saying ujen small Finance bank is a bad Bank in fact I have my positions in that particular bank for some other reasons now coming to the valuations please do not compare equita small Finance bank with likes of HDFC Bank ICC Bank there is no comparison this is a small Finance bank for that you need to really look at Banks like J small Finance Bank Au small Finance Bank Jan small Finance Bank I've spoken about some of them on my channel already and if you're not yet a subscriber what are you waiting for subscribe for the channel hit the like button let me know in the comments a simple thank you if you're liking this analysis right coming back to the PE and PB ratio very quickly you see here that equitas small Finance Bank is still slightly higher although they have made higher Provisions please understand this point they have made higher Provisions their profitability is down they still trading at slightly higher PE and PB so for me in terms of the valuation you really need to ask a question whether this is the right Bank to invest at this particular level or not now coming to the final point that what should we do in this stock Rahul can you please tell us I'm not going to give you any stock recommendation but in such stocks if you want to invest the good approach will be that do not put your lumpsum money you do not know where the bottom will be so please take a position let's say in the next 15 days 30 days or 45 days spread out your risk right that becomes a sensible approach in stocks which are falling like anything and this stock might recover might not recover I don't know what I can very quickly see is that just yes yesterday the stock recovered by almost 4.50% and whether this recovery will sustain or not I don't know again I cannot predict I've given you a lot of analysis go ahead and make your decisions please do not take this as a stock recommendation let's move to stock number two and I'm going to pick up Apollo pipe from this particular list so if you have a look at my screen you will see that in the last one year stock is down here by almost 21% right right now the stock is trading at around 554 and if it were to go back to this level there is a potential gain of 21% and if it were to go back to this high level of around 780 then there is a potential gain of 41% I'm not saying that it'll go back again I'm trying to give you that analysis of what is the potential upward position here and in terms of risk let me now walk you through what all is going wrong with this particular stock and what can happen in the future potentially what are the company's plan in the next 2 to three years and you make a good assessment good informed assessment about where the stock is going to go from here on right so for that first thing we are going to do is let me quickly tell you that this Apollo pipes is among the top seven leading PBC pipe manufacturer company in India pause this video read some of the other information for example they have eight manufacturing plants Etc right the second point is the company manufactures pipe for agre Segment water segment construction segment and in the next 2 to three years do you think that there is going to be any problem in these sectors I personally don't think there is going to be any problem in in these sectors in terms of the demands coming from this sector right moving on to the third Point here if you look at the PVC industry it is poised to grow at around 15% cagr in the next 3 years which is quite healthy growth in my view now let's come and have a look at what has been happening in this company for the last four to 5 years very quickly you will see that in the last four to 5 years the revenues have been hitting all-time high here very quickly 987 cres you can see iida perspective good iida is what we can see here cagr of 20% almost right when it comes to Pat it's been growing at around 12% slightly lower than what the revenues have grown by in fact the pat for fy4 has slightly come down from the fy2 2022 so there seems to be some pressure on the profitability of this particular company if you look at the Roe and roce because this is a capital intensive company or a stock and if we quickly look at the data you will see that the Roe and the RO has been coming down in the last four to 5 years right is that a red sign or not of course this is not a good sign at all but when I was digging deeper I found that in the last couple of years the company has done a lot of capex investment here 200 cres is the capex investment they have done they also acquired another company called kissan so when a company is investing lot of money in terms of capex then what is likely to happen their roce and Roe is likely to come down in the short term until that investment starts to give them return which might take around next 2 to three years of time so the Roe and rce might be down because of that reason as well if you look at the pnl statement of this company the last quarter if you see the company's Pat has improved to 14 cres from the last quarter 7 CR so there's almost a 100% growth here in terms of the pat one thing you will very quickly note that the company's Pat margin is very very low so if you investing in a pipe Manufacturing Company compare their Pat margin so here it is only giving 4.3% of Pat margin which is a very very low margin in my view go and compare this with likes of for example PHX I talked about PHX also on the channel right there are other companies as well go and compare that data as well if I compare this company's quarterly performance from the last year's quarter performance quarter 1 performance you will very quickly see that the Pat is still down here and the net profits you can see data is down by almost 22% so from the last year years perspective the quarterly performance was really not good but from a sequence perspective the company has given good profitability almost doubled it Rahul is there any good news about this particular company of course let me share the shareholding pattern and very quickly you will see that the FIS have been buying this particular stock and this is in the given context that in the last four to 6 weeks there have been a heavy selling by F right if you look at the DI also they have been buying this stock slightly at least in the last quarter promoters have done some profit booking here and if the promoters Al Al kept their Stakes constant then that would have been a really really positive news from a shareholding patterns perspective right now if I talk about the future Prospect of this company management is guiding for 25 to 30% of a cagr in terms of the revenue growth now this is a very very healthy growth I do not know whether they will be able to achieve it or not but this is a very very positive sign again we don't know nobody's committing for it but there is a guidance of 25% to 30% of cagr growth in terms of the revenues of this company right and therefore the company's Revenue by FY 27 is likely to hit around 2,600 cror versus what it has right now at around 1,000 crores which is a phenomenal growth if they're able to achieve it how are they going to achieve it so the second good news is that the company has been putting lot of money in terms of the capex plans and if you see that they are setting up a Greenfield Varanasi plant which is going to add around 30,000 of ton of the capacity they are also doing some brown field expansions so overall they are putting a lot of money and if I talk about the numbers itself next 2 to three years they are going to put around 100 cres to 150 50es on an annual basis of capex right so it looks like to me that the company is confident about their business model they're putting lot of money building some more factories and plants they see demands that's why a company will do all of that now last two point is that very quickly if you see in January 2024 company issued a warrant for somebody called Sunil munti to buy the stakes in the company at a rate of around 550 rupees now what is a warrant please go and read about it again if I talk about everything here the video is going to get really really long but right now the price of the stock is at around 554 and the company has issued warrants to Mr Sunil munti who is a non-promoter at 550 price per share right last point in terms of valuations if you compare Apollo pipes with likes of Prince pipes PHX Industries the PE is still very high 57 as compared to 34 while the PB is at around 3.78 versus 3.77 of industry I've given you a lot of analysis of this stock I do not know what do you think about this stock let me know in the comments if you think there is a bright future for this particular stock and whether it can go up from 550 level to around 700 level in the near future let me know in the comments would love to read your comments so far if you're with me and if you have still not like this video request you to hit the like button let me know in the comments a simple thank you it will motivate me to come up with such content for you at zero cost with that let's move to stock number three and I'm going to pick up a stock called credit access gramine limited now have a look at my screen and you will very quickly notice that in the last one year the stock is down by almost 15% and if it were to go back from the current levels of 1177 to maybe around 1,700 level there is a good 40 to 50% of potential gain here and in fact in the last 2 to 3 months many investors have been talking about this particular stock for example here moal OS Financial Services were giving a buy rating again not my data this is a moal oswal's recommendation on a public platform right coming back to another article that it published that why mutual funds were stocking up this particular stock in the last couple of months was explained in this article right but just 2 to 3 days before there is a news that is in the market which is that credit access India is going to sell its stakes in this particular company so basically the owners of this company is a company called credit access India BV which is a Netherlands based company and they are now looking for new owners for this particular company they're going to sell this company off now I did a detailed post about this particular stock and this news on my YouTube member Community as soon as this news hit the market and if you want some insightful updates like this coming from the Practical learnings then you can consider subscribing to my YouTube member Community try for one month and you're going to learn a lot but coming back to this particular stock I summarize this stock and if I just talk about the fundamentals of this stock there is absolutely no issues in terms of the growth of the company you can read these particular kpis that I had concluded and taken out from their earnings presentation and they all look very very good to me right however the entire risk right now is that when the owners are selling the company what is likely to happen and in my view there are total five key considerations that we need to think about Point number one one is whenever a company is offered for a sale what happens is that right from the CEO of the company to receptionist of the company what happens is that they will feel uncertain about their own future many people will voluntarily try to leave the company and what that can do is it can create problems in the performance of the company in the short term for the next let's say 12 months company may not perform in terms of the profitability or Revenue because the people are going to lose the focus as soon as they know about this particular news right that's Point number one point number two is the Val valuation of the company at which the company will be sold is extremely important right now in the news it is said that it is going to be sold on premium we do not know whether that is confirmed by the promoters or not we do not know what will happen in terms of the buyers that are going to queue up for this particular company so right now I do not know about valuation so that is a potential risk in terms of Point number two point number three is even more important which is that the new owners when they come and take control of the company they might do something entirely different from what the company has been doing in the last 2 to three years right so there is a risk here that the company might be governed in a totally different way and that might cause some serious problems in the short term fourth is that on the back of the news that has hit the market the dis the FIS they might start to book their profits might exit the stock because of these uncertainities and that might create short-term price pressure on this particular stock right number five is that this process of now selling might take anywhere 12 months 18 months I don't know right again there is going to be a period of uncertainty here right so these are the risks involved in this particular stock people really who want to take advantage of this particular fall really need to show a lot of patience if you want to invest in such companies right again there is not fundamentally anything wrong but this entire sale of this company is what has caused a bit of a problem right now in the last couple of days in terms of the price falling down now last Point here Rahul what happens if a stock hits 52 week high you have spoken about the 52 Week low what should we do when a stock has it 52 week high my simple answer is that sell and book profits with that I'll see you in my next video Until then keep rocking