Accidental Nature: History is full of accidents. There is no deterministic law that dictates which events or movements will succeed.
Christianity's Rise: It's challenging to explain why Christianity became the dominant religion. The Roman Empire in the third century had many competing sects, much like California today with its diverse beliefs.
If history were replayed, Christianity might dominate only 2 out of 100 times.
Similar unpredictability applies to Islam's rise and the Communist takeover in Russia (1914).
Charismatic Leaders
Influence: Though charismatic leaders like Lenin or Steve Jobs are often credited with shaping major events or movements, their roles are part of a bigger interplay of forces.
Storytelling: Effective leaders are great storytellers, which can help catalyze the viral spread of ideas.
Local Interactions: The small, everyday interactions between people may have a more significant impact, but these are harder to summarize and less 'sexy' in storytelling.
Structural Forces vs. Individual Actions
Structural Forces: Geographical and technological factors sometimes make certain developments almost inevitable (e.g., discovery of America, rise of personal computers).
If it wasn't Columbus, someone else would have discovered America shortly after.
If personal computers had risen in China in the 1990s instead of California in the 1970s, the global landscape would be different.
Small Changes, Big Effects: Minor differences can lead to hugely different outcomes (e.g., who discovered America, whether Zelensky stayed in Kiev).
Case Studies
Ukraine Conflict: Decisions by individuals like Putin and Zelensky significantly altered the course of the conflict.
Putin's decision to invade had huge ripple effects.
Zelensky's choice to stay in Kiev in the early days was pivotal.
Conclusion
Interplay: There is a constant interplay between structural forces and individual decisions. Both contribute to the unfolding of historical events in complex ways.