former US president Donald Trump was shot at a campaign rally in Butler Pennsylvania in what FBI officials are investigating as an assassination attempt obviously the hot takes are flying but we wanted to talk to Ian bremma about the bigger picture of the state of American politics and democracy as we all know the US election is coming up in November so how pivotal a moment is this and what do we need to both do and watch for in our capacity as invested humans wherever we are Ian thank you so much for joining us Helen it is great to be with you so let's get right to it how significant a moment is this and what should we be paying attention to right now well maybe for a second let's recognize that it was this close um to changing the course of history uh former president Trump could easily have been assassinated and it's a staggering uh failure of the Secret Service uh that is uh you know on scene uh given the the the incredible amounts of security that are around um a president a former president uh this is a big rally it was that was what was staggering to me not that we were going to see violence um and social Discord uh in this election cycle that seemed pretty certain um but uh the potential for the president to have been assassinated that is that is quite staggering um having said that this is an enormous an enormous issue uh because um it does change the course of the campaign um for number one for example it makes it much uh less likely far less likely that Biden is going to stand down uh for the last uh two weeks that is almost all anyone could talk about and even though he did not want to go uh and in my view he shouldn't have been running uh and neither should Trump uh for over a year now I think they're both far too old um but it was increasingly likely that he was going to be under more and more pressure that's gone that's gone um it's gone from the news uh and it's certainly if Biden doesn't want to go he doesn't have to um and instead the focus is going to be on a uh uniquely polarized us electoral cycle an enormous amount of disinformation an enormous amount of tribalism an enormous amount of political anger and can the country come together can any good come from this extraordinary tragedy at all for the near- term I am skeptical but we should always hold out hope and we can talk about that but those are a few of the things uh that we're looking at in terms of what just happened so what do you think the campaigns do now uh I think that uh Trump appears in Milwaukee the Republican National Convention as Lazarus uh I I think it is it is extraordinary the political um instincts and the human instincts that Trump had after he was shot and he is bleeding on his face and he has no idea if that shooter is still out there and no idea and and he gets right up and he strains against the Secret Service and he doesn't want to be covered he wants his followers he wants the world to see him with fist raised saying fight fight fight and we've already seen that this is the Time Magazine cover it's the lead it's the iconic image uh of the campaign um and will be uh for a long time um and and for a campaign that has been much less about the party and much more about him about Donald Trump the man I think that level of fervor in supporting him especially by his core base is going to grow uh dramatically and the campaign I think will reflect that um if I were to make a bet and I recognize that this is a very quickly moving Target so I could easily be wrong I think this makes it more likely that Trump goes with a vice presidential candidate that is very much aligned with him and that message and so to me that feels more like JD Vance than anyone else there are obviously lots of other considerations but Trump is someone that relies more on his personal judgment and gut and instinct uh than he does on a lot of those other considerations so that's why I think it's worth mentioning um and I also think um that if you're Biden um you are trying to unify um it is going to be a lot harder in this environment for Biden to talk about Trump as an existential threat to democracy irrespective of the fact that he feels that way um it is it must be recognized that some in the Democratic party who have talked in that way and have used you know sort of the more visceral Trump as orange Hitler um that is the kind of thing that makes it feel patriotic um to engage in violence and by the way uh we saw a lot of that uh around January 6 that if you convince your followers that this incredible Injustice is being done and you're going to lose your democracy um if you don't stop the rigged election and if you don't March down and occupy the capital um that's how you get people chanting Mike uh hang Mike Pence that's how you get people calling for violence um against their members of Congress um House and Senate so I do think that that component of Biden's Campaign which has been a significant component of his campaign um is going to to be far less effective and I think he's going to be more careful about making it and so will a lot of his supporters so that's one more thing I think that this is going to really change uh the way the campaign is going to be run do you think this changes anything for Trump and for his campaign or do you think that he just now stands on this as you say as Lazarus kind of emerging Triumph from from this really terrifying moment so Helen um let me say I do think 's an opportunity here for Trump um this this election for the past months has been Biden's to lose and it increasingly was looking especially after that horrible debate uh just a couple weeks ago that he was indeed preparing to lose it uh with this near assassination with the president the former president being shot this election is now Trump's to win remember when Biden said when they you know when when they push me down you know so of you get back up nobody pushed him down uh he he fell he he self- ulated um that that debate was not won by trump it was lost by Biden and the the response and lack of response for days um didn't even talk to the Press um until Stephanopoulos a full eight days later that was those were cell phones right that was you know Biden not ready not up for it his people not wanting to risk it this is different Trump's future is now in his hands and and he did an extraordinary job of showing that he wasn't going to get knocked down when they knocked Trump down he got back up that that he got back up but the question is is Trump just a winner or does he want to be a leader because you know right now I worry that the United States increasingly is becoming a country of winners but not a country of leaders you know winners are people that do absolutely everything they can to get to the finish line and it doesn't matter how they do it it doesn't matter you know sort of who's kind of Knocked Down in their way doesn't matter what the tactics are as long as you win we're number one right I mean the United States is known for that and in many places admired for that but also disliked and frequently loathed for that and and Trump has shown that he is one of the most extraordinary winners out there and he talks frequently in that language he doesn't like you you're a loser you're a loser right and so the question is can Trump not only win the election but can he lead can can he I mean the Speaker of the House Mike Johnson came out and used the same language hours after this assassination attempt that Biden did unifying language of unity language of political violence is wrong wrong in all contexts and we must now work together to abort it that was the language that we were hearing after 9/11 so the question is might Trump do that I I will tell you I think that Trump now it is in Trump's power to be able to do that at the Republican National Convention and going forward it is not his inclination it is not his Instinct and it's not his history right I mean especially because this is a man who has been impeached twice this is a man who has been indicted dozens and dozens of times convicted 34 times of felony charges and he believes that his political enemies are responsible for that he believes that the reason that he was shot and almost killed is because of his political adversaries he believes that um that's a horrible thing for the country and the question is does he see any desire any utility um is he willing to try to step out of his instincts and impulses many of them not serving the country or the world well um just his team just his base and instead become a leader of the entire American people because I will tell you Helen again I think he's going to win at this point I wouldn't bet everything on it it's still four months away but I it's I think it's a safe bet and if he wins he'll be my president and I will say that he'll be my president but will he believe that he is actually the president equally of all Americans in the United Kingdom just recently we saw a transfer of power between uh Rishi sunak from the conservative party and K starmer of the labor party and and they both spoke in terms of unity that both of these men fundamentally believe in they believe that public service is about the public and its service they believe that they actually they don't just say it they actually believe that and the UK is a far more functional democracy today for that reason and when we look at democracies all over the world this year and so many of them have been having elections in France as well um and across the European Union and Parliament and in Mexico and in South Africa and in India and in Indonesia we have seen that democracy is all over the world are capable of having free and fair elections with leaders that lead for the country not all equally well or effectively and frequently using device of rhetoric but at the end of the day they still think that that is not where we have been heading in the United States it is not true today this is a country where 25% of Americans now say that Patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save the country that's that's what Americans say 25% agree with that that that to me sounds like a democracy in crisis 75% of Americans say that American democracy is at risk in the 2024 presidential election but of course those 75% do not agree on why it's at risk a lot of them believe it's because Trump is an existential threat to democracy I a lot of other ones believe that Biden has already rigged the election and has destroyed democracy with special interests in the Deep State um again that is not a sustainable path to democracy and right now there's honestly only one person in the United States that could make a really big difference in that trajectory and that's the man that right now just escaped death and is set to become the next president that's so interesting to to hear you describe things in that way and I'm I'm curious do you see anybody else coming up are there any emerging leaders from either the Democratic party or the Republican Party who you see actually may be able to help build Bridges or Foster relationships or actually do things in a different way because as you say the kind of the spectacle and the theater of American politics has become overweening and the public service has really seemed to take second second place to grandstanding but who else like is are there any other emerging leaders that you're watching that you that that actually bring you hope there oh absolutely there are a lot of younger people coming up that I think reflect that kind of sensibility I mean I look at some of the governors for example um you look at a Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan or you look at a Glenn yunan in Virginia and you see you know sort of in their 50s robust political leaders that certainly have an ideological tilt and policy preference but at the end of the day they're bridg Builders they want to work with other people in the Senate I see Chris Coons from Delaware I see Mitt Romney from Utah these are people that are very interested in bipartisan legislation and working together and working with each other I think there are a lot of people like that and I think there are a lot of young people in America whose names we don't know yet who are like that but that is not this political cycle that is very far from Trump versus Biden Redux and um you know I I think that uh there are other people as well there are sports stars there are entertainers I mean there are a lot of Americans that are you know soft power types but wield real power and have real influence and have a lot of money um who inspire all sorts of young people um but you wouldn't say that they're playing a significant role in the political space and when they are um they typically do a little more partisan damage than they do good right and that's and and that's particularly true when we talk about the most powerful individual Americans right I mean the Elon musks and the Jeff bezos's who you and I have spoken about before who care a lot more about themselves and self-aggrandisement um than they do uh about their fellow citizens interesting that you bring up Elon Musk obviously he came out right after the attempted assassination and endorsed Trump which was something previously he had said he wasn't going to do does that matter should we pay attention to that well it matters especially since I think Trump's going to be president um I mean right now uh Elon is you know the wealthiest guy on the planet he wields probably more power individually than any other American uh and uh the fact that he has aligned himself with uh magga ideology and has algorithmically been promoting that on his social media platform is a big deal um he certainly is you know he's been speaking with Trump regularly he he he seems to want to have some form of advisory role with the Trump presidency um and were he to do that you know for example Trump owns to truth social it's not doing very much not clear how Trump would be able to own it as president it's very clear that Elon could buy it and it could then be elon's Voice of America uh which would give those two men an awful lot more power um together uh and would also um help entrench uh political power in uh the individuals that occupy the position of President and those and the positions of power around them and make it much harder to displace them right I mean part of the issue um in the United States right now is whether or not rule of law and democracy are sustainable on the present trajectory and I I am not someone who believes that the US is on the precipice of dictatorship at all I don't believe that I don't believe the US is about to have a civil war and I didn't believe that on January 6th and I said that at the time and you and I talked about it um but but I do believe that we are seeing an erosion of rule of law that will create far more power for sitting incumbent presidents and their parties and their fellows so I mean for example the Supreme Court ruling that any official Act of a president has impunity gives more power to the executive um the the fact uh that uh we are in an environment where um the uh the bilbster in the Senate um we no longer have uh the moderates that were really really uh convinced it needed to stay like kirston Cinema um and uh Joe mansion and so uh were the Democrats or Republicans to take a majority of 5152 again this cycle looks much more like the Republicans I think the filibuster is gone that's a lot more power for the incumbent the sitting party right we have a media environment that is far more politicized and suffused with thisinformation social media even more so algorithmically now if you take that and then you weaponize the Department of Justice the FBI the IRS which again Trump and advisers have claimed that the Biden team is already doing right if that were to happen in dramatic form under a trump presidency you are permanently eroding rule of law and then the United States still has the best economy in the world still has the reserved currency still has the biggest most powerful military but its political system starts feeling much more like a hybrid not a functional democracy but more like a Hungary or a Serbia or a turkey where it's actually structurally much much harder for opposition parties individuals media um to function uh and certainly to gain power I think that that is the question of where the United States is going to fit on a spectrum of open to closed systems that we presently see around the world let's talk a little bit more about the media because obviously we're all watching this and we all we've all watched for many years at this point the increased kind of polarization that we see in the media the kind of the fracturing into US versus them where they are coming for us they're coming for our families they they are always someone else they are not people who agree with us or believe our ideas and things have become so inflammatory and so inflamed that it seems like the medeia itself has fractured and fragmented how should we be thinking about that right now how should we think be thinking about ways to actually understand what's happening and maybe take the heat out of the conversation and actually talk about the ideas that matter rather than the increasingly violent rhetoric well Helen I I do think that uh the media is a big part of what is broken right now um in American democracy um I mean if you watch um MSNBC or Fox um you are getting two completely different sets of facts about what is and is not reality and that didn't Ed to be true not only when you and I were kids but even when you and I were going to college and starting off our professional careers it wasn't true it really is true now that has caused an awful lot of damage and it's worse than that because it's most people don't watch those shows right I mean actually the average age of someone that watches cable is well over 60 most people get their news from those shows and those networks through social media which means they're seeing the headlines and the headlines are far worse than the content they're far more polarizing and that's not only true for the cable news which is much more infotainment but it's also true even for the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times which are supposed to be respected um journalist institutions that are really reporting on what is and not what they would like to be and there's so many times that I mean you know the vast majority of people that promote information and on politics in the United States of any sort whether it's politicians or Media or individual influencers their analysis is literally not distinguishable from their personal ideology and preference they're the same things and I mean the one thing I can guarantee you is when that is the case it is useless as analysis it's useless as analysis that should be obvious I mean I've had this experience a bunch of times um and there are so many things out there that I see happening that I wouldn't want but it doesn't change the analysis and then I even see people reacting saying how can you say that because implying that the fact that I'm writing it as analysis means that I must actually want it for example the likelihood that Ukraine is going to be partitioned and lose a significant piece of their land which I strongly oppose but I also strongly feel it's going to happen um and the same thing is true on things around the Middle East the same thing is true when I talk about you know sort of how uh Biden versus Trump is going or how Trump is going to react and how Biden is going to react and you know whether Biden's going to step down again I told you I think he should um I don't think either of them should be running but that didn't mean I thought they were going to right and so I think that that is a fundamental problem and it is made worse by the fact that the business model for the media is not about getting good information out there it's about maximizing the attention economy and it's about generating clicks for data which turns citizens into products those are deeply deeply anti-democratic business models that's not the intention it just happens to be um the negative externality that nobody wants to pay for and as you know Helen when you've got a business model that has a negative externality that no one wants to pay for we end up paying for it not them we do we actually it's kind of funny you would think that the in the United States is that we have too much capitalism it's not it's actually that we don't have enough capitalism we have people that are very very very strongly capitalist when they are making money but when their business model loses money they stop being capitalists then they want State intervention then they want socialism then they want everyone to pay for it that is so anti-American it's so anti-American and and I wish that more people would recognize that what made America truly great are people that take accountability for both their profits and their losses that's not what winning is that's what leadership is that's what leadership is back to that theme again so what are the world leaders saying about this moment and what are they watching for well you you know Helen I just came from Washington uh where we had the 75th anniversary of NATO uh the strongest military Alliance in the planet's history led by the United States capably led by the United States recently expanded to include Finland and Sweden um and all of the 32 members there um are committed to the future of that Alliance even hungary's Victor Orban who has many different views about how they should spend their money and resource but he doesn't want to go anywhere um they are spending more money on defense 23 of them are now at the 2% minimum or more of Defense from GDP spending and they recognize that they need more resource and capacity and coordination because of an increasingly dangerous planet so I mean that was a real success the summit was a real success and yet all of those leaders were deeply concerned about the state of American democracy deeply concerned uh about what was going to happen after us elections and whether they could continue to count on the most power ful military in the world and also their most powerful Ally and that was before the assassination attempt and the notes that I've gotten just in the past hours from many of those leaders have been oh my God like yeah we number one we think Trump is going to win number two we're really worried about the future of your democracy um this isn't sustainable is anyone going to be able to to pick up the pieces to build it back um you know can you have a 911 response and and right now near term my sense is no my sense is no I think this is going to look a lot more like January 6th then 911 I think in the early days you have a lot of people that are condemning it but in and and just as you did after January 6 the early days a lot of people condemned January 6 Democrats and Republicans but then in short order within you know just weeks and months and it'll be faster this time around because of the election cycle in short order you had it politicized and weaponized you the Democrats saying this is why Trump is no good and these people need to go to jail and it's horrible and you had the Republicans saying they're Patriots you had Trump actually playing a bunch of January 6th um in insurrectionist um singing the National Anthem and that he salutes while they do that and and I fear um that the uh follow on from the assassination attempt will be more like that where Democrats and Republicans perceive it radically differently um and that that is something that the Russians and other enemies of the United States are only too happy to promote with disinformation and weaponized the Russians have already talked about that we can get into that if you want um but the rest of the world the allies of the United States are deeply concerned because they need a strong and stable America they don't just need a powerful America they want a powerful America they need a strong and stable America and they don't have one America's adversaries want want a weak and divided America and they're getting one this is an opportunity for America's enemies um and it is a deep structural concern possibly a crisis for many of America's allies I mean it's been extraordinary to me just watching this morning and seeing the conspiracy theories emerge on both sides so you have Democrats worrying that in fact this was all organized by Trump and his people and then you have Republicans who think that this was a Democrat Democrat organized um ass the the the rhetoric is is is really intense and I think I fear as you do that that it doesn't seem like anyone is going to emerge to make this into a 911 moment of unity but in fact that we should fear more violence I mean if I were in a position to really do something about it I would do everything I could right and I and I do know um some Americans at least that are trying but I will tell you honestly um I mean in the grand scheme of things uh the the the wind the currents uh they're they're they're in the other direction this is this is something that is probably going to have to get worse before it gets better uh because people are not taking it seriously enough there are too few people that are willing to risk their careers um risk their Ambitions risk even their personal safety um to speak up for something greater than them that they believe in for a sense of Comedy uh and Nation that brings the country together as opposed to divides it I I don't think we're at a point where that is going to happen let's talk about guns for a moment America surely knows it has a problem the US Surgeon General has declared gun violence a Public Health crisis yet other countries have passed gun reform laws quickly after a devastating attack if you think about dunblaine in Scotland or Christ Church in New Zealand and yet America seems to experience far deadlier shootings than yesterday's on a daily weekly monthly basis and yet um um the shooter in this attack wasn't old enough to legally drink but he got his hands on a semi-automatic rifle do you think this moment will make any difference given who was involved do you think we will see anything related to gun uh gun control other than hopes and prayers um well I mean the funny thing uh is that the United States has had uh gun reform in the past in response to a presidential assassination attempt this was Reagan back in ' 81 uh who was almost killed but the White House Press Secretary James Brady uh was struck and he was confined to a wheelchair after that he devoted his life to uh gun control gun reform and that's what got you the Brady Bill back in I think it was 94 or something like that but that is not where we are now uh that feels like ancient history and right now the United States has more guns per capita than any other country on the planet except Yemen and Yemen is having a civil war so arguably they need those guns in Yemen the United States at least so far not so much so you've got a very serious issue you have people that are politicized and angry and prone to believe conspiracy theories you're talking about like all the media and social media landscape promoting that um and you have this enormous number of weapons military-grade weapons in many cases that are available to any average wacko um and they get them and they use them how many times have we heard about AR-15 AR-15 I mean the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abbe was shot and you know I I I remember what that was like for that country and and it was astonishing because it was a guy that had to make his own weapon because it is impossible to buy a weapon to do that kind of damage in Japan um and in the United States the mass shootings are just something that we've come to normalize and live with and it's not just that it's not just the Pol itical environment it's also the mental health environment which is worse in the United States with less effective treatment than in other Advanced industrial economies it is the fenel and the drug addictions and the sense of unwe it's the homelessness and the helplessness the perceived helplessness of of the working classes who have been hollowed out so when you put all of that together you expect a lot more violence now there hasn't been much political violence in the United States thus far in this electoral season despite all of that why not well the main reason is because the US may not take guns and mental health very seriously but my God they take domestic Security Homeland Security very seriously we saw this after 911 when Homeland Security was stood up and I mean anyone that sees the Secret Service that is around the president and former president there's no other country in the world that has anything remotely like that and it's not just that it's the background checks and it's the surveillance uh it's the intelligence it's you know the FBI and the domestic security that is trying to ensure that any potential um you know VI violent Vector in the United States is neutralized before they can execute on a plan and that's true whether we're talking about terrorism coming from Islamic fundamentalists or white nationalists homegrown in the United States you name it um and so in that regard the US has put an enormous amount of resource in trying to contain this problem uh you and I I think would agree that a more effective way to combat the problem would be to get the root causes as opposed to waiting until you've got the wackos with the guns and the motivation and then try to contain them but it's not as if the United States is doing nothing and the big surprise uh I think if there was a surprise for me it was it was not that there are people out there that want to try to assassinate uh Trump you know or Biden for that matter um it is uh the fact that the Secret Service um so clearly fell down on the job um and and that this man was able to get off six to eight shots and actually shoot the former president in the head like I mean Heads Will Roll quite literally for that one so you you brought up the shooting of Ronald Reagan and Patty Davis his daughter actually just published an oped today remembering the events of that weekend back in 1981 and trying to think about how we should how we can learn from that how we can move forward and I just want to quote something that she said which is that she hopes that the events this weekend change us as a country shock us into remembering who we are supposed to be who we are capable of being not people riddled with rage and reaching for weapons not people who try to influence elections with gunfire so how do you rate America's chances on that the United States is a very resilient country with an enormous amount of wealth um with enormous amount of human capital situated geographically in the most peaceful and prosperous part of the world um that provides great capacity to turn this around and get it right but it also makes Americans average Americans feel like they're not facing much of a crisis until it gets really really hot and we we we've seen this before um I mean you know again there have been plenty of you know assassin ations and near assassinations and you remember the softball game for example where I mean that easily could have been like large numbers of senators members of Congress getting killed um and uh you know they got lucky uh but didn't change anything did not only did it not lead to gun reform didn't lead to any more civility or bipartisanship in the US and I I fear that um that uh her call will be unheeded uh that it is that it is not that time is not yet ripe in the United States as much as with every sinu of my being I want to say that we can do this I I'm telling you that it feels to me like the US doesn't really believe that this is a crisis yet that you know they can elect Trump or they can elect Biden and it can keep getting you know kind of worse and screwed up but their their own lives aren't really going to be all that affected um and and that's a that's a worry because it means that what we will need to actually eventually make a change and a change will eventually come will need to be much more disruptive I I I fear and I do not hope uh I fear it will be much more violent that's that's where I think we're headed that is a sober note to end on but thank you so much Ian for your time and it's great to know that you are tracking all of these things and that we will talk to you again I'm sure soon thank you