why are they starving the Palestinians why are they killing the Palestinians why are they making Gaza unlivable it's very simple they want to drive them [Music] [Applause] [Music] out ladies and gentlemen welcome to the InterContinental my name is Tom Switzer I'm the executive director at the center for independent studies uh now for those of you who don't know much about CIS we're a public policy research organization we just base up Road on mcquire street and um we are primarily focused on tackling our nation's great public policy challenges so we're interested in economics education uh energy housing affordability intergenerational matters abigal Affairs but we're also very much engaged in the foreign policy debate and that brings us to this evening's event now I should stress from the outset that I think it's probably fair to say that this crisis between is Isel and Gaza in the Middle East is probably the most vexed issue in international relations in 2024 and in a month's time we'll hear from Brett Stevens the award-winning columnist at the New York Times formerly with the Wall Street Journal he'll be speaking in solid defense of Israel's military campaign in Gaza but tonight we will hear a radically different View and we CIS believe that it's very important especially for a classical liberal organization like CIS to hear both sides of any debate now John mimer is without doubt one of the most distinguished professors of political science in the world he's been a professor of political science at the University of Chicago for more than four decades he's the author of many prominent and influential books most notably the tragedy of great power politics that was published in 2001 in foreign affairs magazine the prestigious new york-based Journal of opinion on International Affairs uh it ranks mim's uh great power thesis as one of the three most influential foreign policy thesis of the post Cold War era uh John as Foreign Affairs has actually acknowledged is quote one of the most famous political scientists in history extraordinary rap one of the most famous political scientists in history and that review of John's latest book was written by a Critic um John is also I think it's fair to say a global sensation in the digital world in fact 19 of his debates and interviews on YouTube have each attracted more than 1 million views it's extraordinary extraordinary and I should stress that since he quite correctly predicted that the us-led invasion of Iraq would be not just unnecessary but a strategic blunder of Epic Proportions so it's an extraordinary reach and influence for John and with that it's my great pleasure on behalf of CIS to welcome professor John mishama back to CIS thank you very much for the kind words Tom it's great to be back here great to see Tom again and thank you all for coming out to hear me speak tonight uh as everybody knows since October 7th the uh Middle East has been turned upside down uh I think before October 7th almost everybody thought that uh the Middle East was a quite stable area there were no big problems then October 7th happened and it looks like nothing but trouble today and for as far as the eye can see and what I'd like to do is analyze what has happened since October 7th I'd like to talk about the causes of the trouble where we are today and where we're going and in pursuit of that I want to break my talk down this way first I want to focus on analyzing the conflict in Gaza mainly between Israel and uh the Palestinians or Israel and Hamas and also to say a few words about H about Hezbollah because the he BL Israel conflict is connected to Gaza so that's the first conflict I want to look at then the second conflict I want to look at is the Iran Israel us conflict that took place uh April 1st April 14th and April 19th uh and I want to figure out what exactly happened there and what the consequence are and of course I'm going to do that with the Gaza War as well so those are the two conflicts I'm going to look at and then what I want to do in the second part of the talk is I want to talk about the consequences of all of this the consequences of those two conflicts for Israel for the United States and for Iran and my basic argument is that Israel is the big loser Israel is in really serious trouble today and there's little hope of getting away from that moving forward second that the Americans are also losers although they do not lose as big as Israel does and the winners not in any decisive way but the winners are the Iranians so that's the basic structure of my talk this evening now let me start with what happened on October 7th and talk about the Gaza War uh and just for purposes of background for putting a framework in your head it's very important to understand that Israel today is what I would call Greater Israel Israel controls everything between the river and the CA and of course that phrase is usually associated with Hamas and what Hamas wants is to control everything between the river and the Sea just like Israel does and the end result is that what you have today is a greater Israel and that greater Israel includes what's called Greenline Israel that was Israel before the 1967 war plus Gaza plus the West Bank okay so there are those three areas that comprise greater Israel and what's very important to understand is that inside greater Israel there are roughly 7.3 million Palestinians and roughly 7.3 million Israeli Jews there is rough equality between the two sides so the question is how does Israel think about dealing with greater Israel where you have rough equality between these two populations and there basically four options one is you have a democratic greater Israel that's not going to happen because it would no longer be a Jewish State okay because if you look at demographic patterns the Palestinians are making more babies than the Israeli Jews so that's not happening second possibility is a two-state solution everybody loves to talk about a two-state solution that is not happening certainly after what happened on October 7th but even before then and I'll talk more about this Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli Elite has no interest in a two-state solution Okay the third possibility is apartheid and basically what you now have is an apartheid state we can go into this in detail in the Q&A if you want to do that but uh if you look at Amnesty International Human Rights Watch uh and Bellum which is the leading Human Rights group in Israel all three of those organizations have produced lengthy reports that lay out why Israel is an a parted State the fourth option is ethnic cleansing and ethnic cleansing means getting rid of the Palestinians for the most part who live in Gaza and who live in the West Bank and creating a greater Israel that is completely dominated by Israeli Jews and has very few if any uh Palestinians in its midst so again the four options are number one uh Democratic greater Israel number two two-state solution those two are off the table number three apartheid which is basically what you have now and number four is ethnic cleansing where you get rid of the Palestinians okay now let's switch gears a bit and talk about what the situation looked like before October 7th and focus mainly on Gaza before October 7th the Palestinians in Gaza basically lived in a giant open air prison what happened was that in 2005 when Ariel Chiron was the Prime Minister of Israel he decided to pull the settlers out of Gaza as you know there are settlers in the West Bank up until 2005 there were Israeli settlers in Gaza and Chiron pulled them out and he pulled them out because Gaza was a hornet's nest and having settlers in there was a nightmare and they had their hands full on the West Bank and they wanted to focus on the West Bank and what they did was pulled all the settlers out and it became an open air prison now it looked up until October 7th like Netanyahu and Company were able to manage the situation inside of Gaza nobody thought what happened on a October 7th was going to happen this is why the Israelis got caught with their pants down they thought they were managing the situation very well and what was going on there is that Netanyahu was actually very happy with the fact that Hamas was running Gaza this is hard to believe today but it is true and he was making sure that Hamas was being funded and that Hamas was doing reasonably well now why is that the case because Netanyahu is adamantly opposed to a two-state solution and Mach mdab Bas who runs the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is in favor of a two-state solution so from chiron's point of view not Chiron from netanyahu's point of view would have been true from chiron's point of view as well as if he hadn't passed away a boss is a threat because a boss wants a two-state solution so what Netanyahu has done is supported Hamas because we all know Hamas does not want a two-state solution and he's playing off Hamas against the pl uh in uh the West Bank and it looks like it works and by the way every once in a while you know every couple years the Israelis mow the lawn which means they precipitate a conflict with the Palestinians they go in there they kill hundreds if not thousands of Palestinians destroy some buildings and send them a very clear message that you know we're in charge and we want you to understand that you have to remain in this open air prison so that's the basic situation that exists it looks like Netanyahu is managing the situation and almost everybody thinks that which is again is why they get but with their pants down on October 7th but again what happens on October 7th is that Hamas attacks uh into Israel and I think it's fair to say achieves a spectacular success I think the evidence is that Hamas was surprised by how successful they were um and anyway they uh eventually leave Israel and the Israelis cons consid solidate the situation inside of their borders uh and then they eventually go on the offensive against Hamas and that offensive is now taking place okay now what we want to ask ourselves is what exactly are Israel's goals here this is very important understand what Israel is trying to do now if you read the mainstream media in the west and this includes us Australia what people talk about is that Israel is interested in number one defeating Hamas and here we're talking about decisively defeating Hamas and eliminating Hamas and you can understand why from Israel's point of view that makes sense second goal is to get the uh hostages back as you all know Hamas took about 240 hostages and what the Israelis obviously want to do is get those hostages back so there's sort of two principal goals here defeat Hamas decisively and get back the hostages what's not discussed in the western media is the real goal and the real goal is to ethnically cleanse Gaza and the reason they want to ethnically cleanse Gaza is because number one that's the way you get out of apartheid you all understand Israel is an apartheid state and the only way you get out of that situation is you cleanse uh furthermore it's the only way you defeat Hamas I'll talk more about this it's quite clear that the Israelis are not going to defeat Hamas right and I can't believe they thought they would defeat Hamas before they went in there they're too smart for that but if you cleanse Gaza and you drive all the Palestinians out you drive Hamas out so you solve two of the principal problems you face with ethnic cleansing you solve the apartheid problem and you solve the Hamas problem now you're probably saying to yourself Israel wouldn't do anything like this uh just a couple points first of all to create the state of Israel to begin with you had to do massive ethnic cleansing in 1948 and in 1967 the Israelis cleansed huge portions of what is today greater Israel and the idea that they wouldn't do this if you read all sorts of Israeli media they talk about ethnic cleansing all the time and it makes perfect sense if you think about it final point I'd make to you is one of the criticisms and I'll talk more about this of what the Israelis and especially Benjamin Netanyahu are doing in Gaza is they have not come up with a plan for what Gaza is going to look like after the shooting stops in other words what's the political solution here once the shooting stops and Israeli military commanders IDF military commanders are constantly complaining these days that Netanyahu doesn't give them any sense of what the final political settlement's going to look like so they can deal with Hamas and deal with the pales Ians with some thought in mind about what the endgame is here the reason there's no endgame the reason they're not talking about how they're going to administer a Palestinian dominated Gaza is because they want the Palestinians out they want to ethnically cleanse Gaza and then that brings us to the question how do you do this right how do you get the Palestinians out well first of all they definitely went after Hamas to start with that was the purely military side of the story they went after Hamas but to make ethnic cleansing work you have to number one kill significant numbers of people of Palestinians who are basically innocent Palestinians not Hamas have to kill large numbers of them and you have to give them a powerful incentive by killing them to drive them out number two you have to make the place unlivable and that that's what they're doing I mean they're not just killing people they're making Gaza unlivable I could go through this in detail in the Q&A if people want to hear the story but it is as many people say especially the UN people who are there the place is unlivable and the reason it's unlivable is because they're trying to cleanse Gaza uh it's very important to understand that and then finally what they're doing is starving the population there's all sort of talk about famine in the north northern part of Gaza the United States is leaning heavily on the Israelis to let food and other kinds of Aid in the Israelis are resisting at every turn why are they starving the Palestinians why are they killing the Palestinians why are they making Gaza unlivable it's very simple they want to drive them out so that's basically what's been happening and in the beginning right there was all sorts of talk about genocide and I was on the record publicly is saying this is not a genocide but after December I changed my mind on that I think the Israelis are now engaged in genocide and what's happened here is because they have been unable to get the Palestinians out they've had to increase the amount of killing that they do right they they're continuing to push to get the Palestinians out of Gaza and the way they do that is just kill more and more people and make Palestinian pal make make the situation in Gaza more and more unlivable right so the situation is just getting worse and worse and worse despite the fact that the United States and actually the West more generally are doing what they can help feed the Palestinians so the question is where are we today where are we today uh first of all they've not defeated Hamas and they're not going to defeat Hamas Kurt Campbell who is the deputy secretary of state basically said that yesterday they're all sorts of stories in the Israeli press that they're not going to defeat Hamas they haven't gotten the hostages back and they have not been able to cleanse Gaza they've not been able to cleanse Gaza furthermore they're stuck in Gaza they're there right they got out in 2005 and they're back there this is not good uh so what you see here is that Israel is in real trouble in Gaza now in addition to the problem in Gaza they have a huge problem with Hezbollah because Hezbollah in the North in support of Hamas has been shelling Northern Israel and there are somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 Israelis from the northern part of Israel who have had to move into the Center of Israel on a temporary basis and can't go home because Hezbollah is shelling Northern Israel and Hezbollah has said that until this all ends in Gaza they're going to continue to fight the Israelis this is a huge problem for the Israelis so they not only have trouble with Hamas and Gaza they have trouble with Hezbollah up on the northern border and by the way the houthis are actually now taking name at the Israelis and the houthis just recently landed their first missile inside of Israel just one but that's a harbinger of things to come you see how much trouble Israel is in they have not achieved their objectives with regard to those two- stated objectives and with regard to the ethnic cleansing and as I said to you before you always want to understand there are four options here first two are off the table and that comes down to aparti or ethnic cleansing and the israelies understand full well an apartheid state we remember what happened to South Africa we've got to solve that problem that's why ethnic cleansing is so attractive but they've been unable to ethnically cleanse so far that's that story that's that's the story about Gaza let's shift gears now talk about Iran versus Israel versus the United States uh up until April 1st the war between Israel and Iran and even the United States and Iran was a shadow War uh and it's very important to understand that we did not want the war that shadow War to escalate we did not want to see Iran and Israel get into a fight very important to understand nor did the Iranians the Iranians had no interest in escalation the country that had an interest in escalation were the Israelis the Israelis have had their gun sights on Iran for a long time and they've been doing everything they can over time to pull us into a war against Iran but we didn't want a war what happens on April 1st as I'm sure all of you remember is that the Israelis hit the Iranian Embassy in Damascus Syria this drives the Iranians up a tray and the Iranians make it clear that they're going to retaliate against Israel the United States is a gast the United States is very angry at the Israelis for doing this and not telling them that it was coming so the Israelis right look like they're going to get a big conflict between Israel and the United States on one side and the Iranians on the other side but the United States doesn't want this and Iran doesn't want this so what happens this is April 1st the attack on the uh uh Embassy on April 14th Iran retaliates against Israel you all remember this the question is what happens between April 1st and April 14th and then what happens on April 14th it's all very important to understand these details the United States and Iran work together through intermediaries because we don't have direct relations we work together through intermediaries to make sure that the Iranian attack is limited that we see coming beforehand and that the United States and the Israelis and others are able to deal with the attack furthermore we make it clear that we want the Iranians not to hit any populated areas and to basically go after one or two military targets we and the Iranians agree that it will be a limited attack we're coordinating with the Iranians because again we don't want escal we meaning the Americans nor do they then when the Iranian attack comes a hotline an informal hotline is set up between the United States and Iran via Oman because both the Iranians and the Americans want to keep this one under control very important to understand that and the Iranians attack and what happens there the Americans are deeply involved in defending Israel you all remember everybody talked about how the jordanians the Saudis the French the British the Americans the Israelis they were all involved in dealing with this attack this is a real problem for Israel because Israel has always prided itself on being able to independently deal with an adversary that thinks about attacking it well in this case right not only are we coordinating things with the Iranians to make sure this is limited and it doesn't spin out of control but there is considerable evidence that roughly half of the missiles and drones that were shot down were shot down by the United States not by Israel roughly half we were deeply involved we had naval ships that shot down Iranian ballistic missiles and we were using fighter aircraft to shoot down cruise missiles and shoot down drones now the Israelis played a very important role in this but it's important to understand we the United States of America were coordinating the effort you see how deeply involved we were we wanted to keep this one under control we wanted to make sure that that Iranian offensive against Israel was not successful that brings me to the final part of the story about April events involving Iran and Israel the Israelis retaliate on April 19th remember the April 1st is when they hit the embassy in Damascus April 14th is when um Iran goes after Israel does limited damage hardly any damage and then on April 19th the Israelis retaliate now as you would expect the Israelis wanted to unleash the dogs the Israelis wanted a big Counterattack on Iran the United States did not want that for one second we're trying to put a cap on the volcano so what the Israelis end up doing is basically taking out one radar in the Isfahan area of Iran uh just one radar a radar associated with an s300 missile it is a very very very limited response and it's a limited response because the United States demands that it be a limited response furthermore we go to Great Lanes to tell the Israelis they actually won a great Victory on April 14th by stopping all those Israeli missiles and drones so Israel accept the fact that you won a great Victory on April 14th all we need is just a small scale attack where we go after one radar and that's the end of the story and of course that was the end of the story this one went away unlike Gaza which continues on to this day so what I'm telling you is you have these two big conflicts the one in Gaza which I just described and then the one involving Iran Israel and the United States between April 1st and April 19th now I want to talk about the consequences of this for Israel United States and for Iran and as I said to you I believe that Israel was the big loser here now you're saying to yourself why is that the case number of reasons first of all the Israelis are back in Gaza they got out in 2005 Ariel Chiron as you all no is no shrinking violet he's at least as tough an ombre as our as Benjamin Netanyahu he pulled out because Gaza is a hornet's nest well the Israelis are back in Gaza they have no way of getting out at the moment and they have no solution to the problem they've made Gaza unlivable what are they going to do the Palestinians are not leaving what are they going to do they're running the place they're in deep trouble second reason the Israelis lose you have to understand how the Israelis think about deterrence and this is a very smart way of thinking about deterrence I'm not being critical of Israeli thinking here what the Israelis believe is that their deterrence depends on escalation dominance escalation dominance that means if somebody whacks me and I whack them back I whack them back harder than they initially whacked me in other words as we go up the escalation ladder I dominate escalation dominance the best example of this is in the summer of 2003 Hezbollah uh uh killed a few Israelis this is up on the northern border Hezbollah killed a few Israelis and kidnapped an Israeli okay the Israelis massively retaliated and nasrala who is the head of Hezbollah said I think two months later nazala said if I had known what the Israelis were going to do in terms of retaliating I would have never allowed the attack on July 12th 2006 that that's escalation dominance do you understand it's very important from Israel's point of view they have to make it clear to all their neighbors that if you whack us we'll whack you back harder it's now very clear the Israelis no longer have escalation dominance viav Iran or viav Hezbollah they cannot shut down the conflict with Hezbollah on their northern border it's really quite remarkable the Israelis are hitting Hezbollah very hard and Hezbollah is responding Hezbollah has 150,000 rockets and missiles and those numbers will only grow with the passage of time 150,000 right so the Israelis are limited in what they can do and with regard to Iran I describe to you what happened April 1st April 14th April 19th that is not escalation dominance I'm sorry that is not escalation dominance and furthermore they needed the Americans you all understand I'm just sort of diverting from the pathon for one second if you look at what's happening in Gaza the Israelis could never conduct that operation in Gaza without American Support not even close and all sorts of Israeli generals say that in the Israeli press they cannot by themselves produce the Weaponry to conduct the operations they're now conducting in Gaza they need us and what I'm telling you about what happened on April 14th is they needed us you hear all this talk about Iron Dome and their ability to shoot down missiles they cannot do it alone Iron Dome is not that not that formidable defensive system and furthermore given cost exchange ratios the number of missiles that the Iranians in Hezbollah have Iron Dome over the long term in a fight is just not very useful so from a deterrence point of view the Israelis are in real trouble so my first point is they're in real trouble because they're stuck in Gaza and they have no solution to the problem and number two their deterrence has been badly weak weakened number three is very important to understand with the coming of all these missiles and the coming of drones it's now possible for actors like Kamas the houthis and Hezbollah and Iran to develop the capability to develop the capability to hit Israel and cause enormous amounts of damage and lots of people who live in Israel are not very comfortable with this situation right the idea that they are exposed to adversaries and these are formidable adversaries I don't want to make light of the fact that that groups like Hezbollah and groups like Kamas would like to finish Israel off they would the these are these are really tough ombres and what's happened here is that with the passage of time right missile capabilities and drone capabilities have reached the point where it's quite easy for actors like that to employ those weapons to create a real threat for Israel fourth way in which Israel is in trouble is that it has effectively become a pariah State uh in ways that it never was in the past uh if you look at what's happening in the United States and all across the world on University campuses and college campuses this is just evidence whether you think what's going on is right or wrong that Israel's reputation has been badly tarnished just uh if you think about the fact that uh South Africa took Israel before the international court of justice and the international court of justice found not not that Israel is committing genocide they didn't find that that is yet to be determined but what the international court of justice did find is that there is sufficient evidence there's enough evidence to think that Israel might be C committing genocide and if you look at polls inside the United States it's truly remarkable how many people especially Democrats believe that Israel is engaged in genocide there's a recent poll that shows that 56% of all Democrats think that Israel is committing genocide think about that 56% of Americans hold think that Israel is committing genocide uh there's another poll that shows talks about Biden voters that shows that 57% think Israel is committing genocide 27% are not sure 57% think Israel is committing genocide 27% are not sure and then 15% do not believe Israel is committing genocide this is quite remarkable when I think about how I thought about Israel and virtually everybody I knew thought about Israel when I was a young boy and I was a young man and how virtually everybody I know now thinks about Israel a fundamental transformation has taken place it's really quite remarkable and the idea that the Jewish state is being accused used of genocide is really quite remarkable this is a sign of big trouble and the use of the aparte label is used increasingly and this is not going to change because the situation in Gaza is not going to get any better that was one of the points I'm trying to get through to you there is no solution on the horizon here if anybody asked me in the question answer period what would I do to fix this problem I can tell you what the answer is now I have no idea let's be very clear on this categorically depressing but anyway I think that from Israel's point of view what's happened to its reputation is disastrous and I don't think it's going to get any better over time so this is why these four reasons uh number one the fact they're stuck in Gaza once more number two the fact that their deterrence has been weakened because they don't have escalation dominance number three the fact that there surrounded by adversaries who loathe them would like to destroy them and who have uh increasing numbers of missiles and drones that can cause them lots of trouble is bad news and number four the Pariah State argument now let me conclude by talking briefly about the United States and talking about Iran the United States is also a big loser here uh first of all it's in our interest to have peace in the Middle East first of all we've been fighting so many wars the American public is just sick of all these Wars the last thing we want are more wars in the Middle East oh my God a war against Iran this is the last thing people want right we want peace furthermore we need a peaceful Middle East so we can pivot to East Asia right from the American point of view the most serious threat on the planet is China the United States has to contain China we have to Pivot to Asia we can't pivot to Asia because we're pinned down in Ukraine and now we're pinned down in the Middle East this is not good we want for sure to settle this one right to have a situation like the one that existed before October 7th remember Jake Sullivan said a few weeks before October 7th we haven't seen the Middle East this peaceful for a long time and he was very happy happy about that and it made perfect sense from an American point of view but that went away very quickly on October 7 so we want peace second point is we also care greatly about having friendly relations with as many states in the Middle East as possible why is that the case the Russians are already there number one and two the Chinese are beginning to move in for all the older dogs I noticed there are a number of older dogs in the audience we all remember back in the day right when the US and the Soviet Union competed in the Middle East well what you're going to see moving forward is not just the United States and Russia but the United States Russia and China competing in the Middle East the Chinese are building a blue water Navy to project power into the gulf number one number two they depend heavily on oil and therefore they're doing everything they can to have good relations with Iran good relations with Saudi Arabia and we are very worried about this the United States doesn't want bad relations with countries in the Middle East that drive them into the arms of the Chinese and the Russians and you see a lot of that happening by the way you all know about the Abraham Accords the Abraham Accords were were was where the United States was recently trying to get Israel Saudi Arabia and the United States all together in a sort of Quasi Alliance this is all gone by the boards now because of what's happening in Gaza right this is not in our interest it's certainly not in Israel's interest and it's certainly not in saudi's interest at all either so you see the problem that we have here just one other problem and this applies to the uh Israelis as well is the nuclear issue you all understand Iran is hop skip in a jump away from developing nuclear weapons uh because we with pressure from the Israelis we the Americans pulled out of the jcpoa that was the nuclear agreement that the Obama Administration crafted with Iran the Iranians are now enriching Uranian up to 60% and you know you have to enrich uranium up to 90% to have enough to have it uh to have it uh uh capable of being turned into a bomb and it's very easy to get from 60% to 90% my guess is and just from reading the literature that uh Iran could have enough phys material for three bombs in about 6 weeks that's not a bomb that's just a file material I think it would take probably about six months to build three bombs and then they'd have to develop the delivery capability so it's not like they're going to develop a bomb in a month or two's time that's not going to happen but they're not that far away and what happens when you bomb their Embassy and then you get in a tit fortat fight with them on April 14th and April 19th is you give them an incentive to get nuclear weapons and you can see signs of that you can see signs of the Iranians talking about getting nuclear weapons so one of the principal problems that the Israelis and the Americans face as a result of what happened between April 1st and April 19th is we've incentivized the Iranians to get nuclear weapons not that they'll go through with it but we've given them powerful incentive to do that and they have the capability cuz they can enrich uranium up to 90% And then produce bombs just say a few words in conclusion Tom about Iran as I said to you before I think Iran is the winner I think America is the loser I think Israel is The Biggest Loser uh but I think that the Iranians are the winners uh so far and this is not to say that they have really come out of this smelling like a rose as my mother used to say I don't want to go that far but on balance I think they've done quite well for themselves first of all they have been able except for April 14th to remain on the sidelines and they are using their proxies in the region or they're working with their proxies that's a better way to put it to great effect because as you know the Iranians are allied with Hamas they're allied with Hezbollah they're allied with the houthis and they're allied with these militias inside of Iraq and Syria that have their gun sits not only on the United States but on uh Israel as well so they have been able to stay out of the fight yet see their proxies do very well in this conflict with both the United States um and uh and Israel another point that you want to keep in mind is that Iran as a result of all this now has very close relations with Russia and China what we're doing what the United States is doing is we're driving the Iranians the Russians the Chinese and the North Koreans together right and this makes it harder for us to isolate Iran and if Iran starts to go down the nuclear Road nuclear weapons Road and we want to put pressure on the Iranians it's not clear the Chinese and the Russians are going to help us very much we need the Chinese and the Russians to help us but anyway the Iranians feel like they're in quite a good situation because the United States and the Israelis have not been able to do anything to really harm them in fact Iran got away with whacking Israel this is the first time that Iran has ever been able to launch missiles and drones from its own territory hit Israel and Israel barely retaliated Iranians are probably feeling good about that as they should and then the final point is the sanctions against Iran are not working the way they once were they have weakened so if you look overall at what's happened to the Iranians and what's happening to the Americans and especially what's happening to the Israelis you see that the situation after October 7th is fundamentally different than the situation before before October 7th just in the case of the Israelis before October 7th it looked like they were in the cat bird seat they were managing very well in their own opinion the situation in Gaza and by the way I want to be clear here I thought they were doing an excellent job of managing the problem in Gaza I thought they had things under control I was shocked by what happened on October 7th but once October 7th happened and as we've watched these two conf conflicts play themselves out one the war in Gaza and how that's linked to Hezbollah you don't want to forget and then two the Iran Israel United States uh exchange between April 1st and April 19 it's quite clear that the world has changed in ways that are not good for either Israel or the United States thank you welcome back to CIS it's great to have you back um not with understanding all those points you made about um escalation dominance and the fact that the Israelis are now bogged down in Gaza isn't aren't you overstating your point about Israel's Grim security Outlook after all it's not declar but they do have nuclear weapons and as a foreign policy realist you would surely conc that nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent to a foreign attack so are you being overly gloomy about Israel's security Outlook uh I think there's no question as Tom points out that nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent uh and uh I don't think any country with nuclear weapons is going to disappear from the planet because another country attacks it uh I think that no country would try to inflict a decisive defeat on Israel because of uh uh because it has new nuclear weapons but the problem is that Israel has an inter internal problem see Tom's point about nuclear weapons applies if you're talking about Iran hitting Israel it's an interstate problem okay but Hamas is not another country Hamas is inside greater isra what Hamas is doing is executing a rebellion or an exe or executing an Insurrection and nuclear weapons don't do anything for you in that regard to take this a step further we've talked a little bit just briefly about South Africa and the fact that South Africa was an apartheid state uh and basically that state that existed apartheid South Africa afca disappeared that state had nuclear weapons South Africa had nuclear weapons and what you want to understand and this is very important in the Israeli context is that what's happening inside your Society inside your body politic matters enormously and nuclear weapons can't do much to protect you you see what I'm saying but I don't want to take away from his basic point that nuclear weapons do provide deterrence against Iran getting nuclear weapons or well I mean many scholars would still argue that the security outlook for Israel is not as Grim as you point out not just because of their access to nuclear weapons let me put this to you this is fared Zakaria a CNN host who's also a columnist at the Washington Post now midly he said this before October 7 but let me put this to you this is what he says uh first there is The Disappearance of the Arab threat from its first day in existence Israel has faced the danger of extinction by Arab armies this is the threat against which the Jewish state has planned armed and trade for most of its National Life today that threat is gone second the armies from Israel's main strategic adversaries Iraq Syria Egypt historically they're in disarray while the Israeli armed forces have become the region superpower in a league ahead of the rest how would you respond to fared Zakaria he's right in that sense that those traditional adversaries have effectively disappeared when I was young and the 1956 War took place the 1967 war took place the 1973 War took place these were all conflicts that involved Israel up against Arab states and by the way in 1948 when Israel got its independence uh May 14th 1948 yesterday was uh Israeli Independence Day but 76 anniversary yeah but there's no question that the Israelis fought Wars in 1948 against that's his point but that's not the threat anymore there's a whole new set of threats called Hamas called Hezbollah called the houthis but aren't we seeing a broader Trend in the Middle East between the Iranian bakier proxies that you just mentioned Hezbollah and uh the houthi Rebels versus Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Gulf States isn't that the broader issue and doesn't that to the extent that is true help Israel because you've got a civil war essentially in the Muslim Community in the Arab world how does it help Israel solve the Gaza problem explain to me how that helps Israel solve the Gaza problem and while you're at it explain to me how it helps solve the missile problem that Hezbollah Hamas and the houthis and Iran present to Israel you like former President Jimmy Carter and the university we got time for questions I want to get through it you've called tonight uh Israel and a paride state um you can't Palestinians vote uh it's important to understand that there are basically three groups the Palestinians Palestinians obviously in Gaza who we talked about tonight the Palestinians in the west bank and then the Palestinians inside of what's called Greenline Israel that was the Israel that existed up until uh the 1967 war before they captured those two uh territories uh and when I say there's 7.3 million Palestinians in Greater Israel that includes the Palestinians in all three of those areas the only Palestinians who can vote are the Palestinians in uh green line Israel the Palestinians in Gaza and uh uh and the West Bank cannot vote right so that's one point the second point is the Palestinians in Israel do not have equal rights there's no question they can vote right but they don't have equal rights it's why I would I always argue that Israel is not a liberal democracy if you want to argue Israel is a democracy right you can make that argument I would even fight with you there because of the West Bank and Gaza but let me say I'll give you that right that it is a democracy you can't make the argument that Israel is a liberal democracy because the Palestinians don't have equal rights inside Greenline Israel this is the principal reason in my opinion that Israel does not have a constitution they've moved in that direction a couple times but they can't go too far down that road because they don't want equal rights they want a Jewish State not a state where Palestinians and Jews are equal in number and have equal rights okay but your critics and they're not just Jewish leaders a lot of people in this room orally would say it's a stretch to compare Israel today of to the old racist South Africa of yest year and this is the late Les gilb someone Yu the former president of the New York based Council on Foreign Relations quote the US is helping to protect one of the few nations in the world that share American values and interests a true democracy and this is Richard Cohen a longtime columnist of the Washington Post um the Israel of today and the South Africa of yesterday have almost nothing in common in South Africa the minority white population harshly ruled the majority black population nonwhites were denied civil rights and in 1958 they were even deprived of citizenship Cohen goes on to say in contrast Israeli Arabs about 1 of the country have the same civil and political rights as do Israeli Jews Arabs sit in the knesset and serve in the military although most are exempt from the draft and Cohen concludes whatever this is and it looks suspiciously like a liberal democracy it cannot be a paride again your response to the likes of Les Gelb and Richard just very quickly they don't have equal rights this is the Palestinians who live inside Greenline Israel they simply don't have equal rights uh and what about the Palestinians in Gaza and the Palestinians in the West Bank this is all part of Greater Israel uh but let me make a couple points uh in addition to that first of all whether Israel is an apartheid state is not based on any comparison with South Africa you have to come up with what is a definition of a partide and then you have to look at what's happening inside of Israel and see whether it meets that definition right there's no question that there are differences and I'll get to this in a second between apartheid in South Africa and apartheid in Israel but the question is what are the general characteristics of an apartheid regime and does is Israel fill the bill now as I told you before if you have any doubts about this there are huge reports written by Human Rights Watch Amnesty International and bet selum which is the leading Human Rights group inside of Israel laying out the case as to why Israel is an apartheid state and I think it those three reports make a very powerful case my final point to you is there are a number of South Africans who Liv under apartheid in South Africa including South African Jews and including Bishop tutu who make the argument that the apartheid system in Israel is worse than the apartheid system in South Africa let's turn to Rafa uh the southern city in Gaza now the Israeli leadership seems to believe that a fullscale ground military invasion of Rafa will finish the job of eliminating Hamas you've said that that's not realistic now your critics would say that with its gleeful mutilations its Rampages its rapes and beheadings its baby killing on October 7th Hamas needs crushing and if Hamas keeps control of Rafa and the people it wins the Israelis May believe that Hamas needs to be crushed and you can understand given what happened on October 7th why they feel that way they're not going to crush Hamas and if you read the newspapers carefully every day you will see that Hamas has come back to life in Northern Gaza and the Israelis have now sent military force into Northern Gaza to deal with Hamas the New York Times And The Wall Street Journal today have articles dealing with the fact that Hamas is almost impossible to defeat they're just not going to defeat them this is why I said to you ethnic cleansing is so attractive to the Israelis ethnic cleansing solves the apartheid problem what Tom was challenging me on a minute ago and it solves the Moss problem which he's challenging me on now um many Democratic legislators who have traditionally been very supportive of Israel have called on Netanyahu to be replaced uh to what extent would things change in Gaza and the Israeli military operation in Gaza if Netanyahu is replaced as many Democratic lawmakers and indeed Brett Stevens at the New York Times has called for Netanyahu to be removed how would things change not at all this is an argument that I hear in the United States and it's made by liberal American Jews people like Tom fredman at the New York Times yeah at the New York Times who believe that uh uh Netanyahu is an anomaly and if we could only get rid of him and replace him with Thomas Jeff person or somebody like that you know Israel will leave live happily ever after this is a foolish argument right it's quite clear that Netanyahu and his War cabinet and most of the National Security Elite in Israel today agree with uh Israeli policy under Netanyahu uh so it it does change anything it wouldn't change any anything it it would change hardly anything now you say Israel has had Iran in its sights for a long time but isn't it true that Iran Shia theocracy has also had Israel in its SIDS for a long time after all many of their leaders have declared the eradication of Israel off the face of the map look there's no question that Iran considers Israel to be a mortal enemy and would like to do away with the Jewish State the same way Hezbollah would like to do away with the Jewish state so there's no question about that and there's no question that the Israelis hate the Iranians or hate Iran and it's a case of mutual hatred Mutual dislike call it what you want there's no question about who is responsible for starting this the implication of your question was that that it is Iran that's responsible not Israel well say leaders that talk about this about eradicating Israel off the face of the Earth it's pretty provocative isn't it I I agree that that's that's correct but I'm just saying it's not clear that they started it you want to remember that Iran once had very good relations with Israel once had very good relations with the United States and that even in the 1990s the Iranians were interested in improving relations with the United States and one could make an argument that if you had gotten a two-state solution that Iran would have reconciled itself to uh dealing with this problem so all you know we haven't talked much about the two-state solution in large part because I sort of took it off the table early on but it's very important to understand that every American president since Jimmy Carter has pushed hard on the two-state solution because we think the two-state solution we meaning American Elites think the two-state solution is the only uh reasonable U way to get out of this conundrum to we what what has to be done here is that the Palestinians have to be given uh self-determination they they need a sovereign state of their own and this is what the two-state solution was designed to do and American leaders understood that if the Israelis did not agree to a two-state solution and you did not get a two-state solution you were going to have trouble for as far as the eye can see you all understand maybe the younger people in the audience don't but what happened on October 7th is really not an anomaly there was the first inapa then there was the second inapa light Ides in early 2000s pardon light Ides in the early 2000s yes 1987 was the first inapa and 2000 was the second inata and these were you know Palestinian insurrections but but John you could get a two- side solution with the Palestinian leadership in the West Bank but Hamas has made it very clear as as you've acknowledged that they don't support a two-state solution absolutely there's no question about that just want to be very clear here this gets back to my point that Netanyahu is playing divide and conquer right Netanyahu had quite good relations with Hamas before October 7th because Hamas doesn't want a two-state solution and Netanyahu doesn't want a two-state solution and from netanyahu's point of view the real threat was mmud abas and the Palestinian Authority and you notice by the way that the Americans have been saying that what we need to do in Gaza is put the Palestinian Authority in control get Hamas out of the way and put the Palestinian Authority in control Netanyahu has made it unequivocally clear this is not happening and that's because the Palestinian Authority has reconciled itself to a two-state solution and that's nightmare news for Netanyahu you say that Tan's hand has been strengthened during this dispute but let me put this to you Iran is surrounded by hostile Sunni States across the Persian Gulf since Saudi Arabia it's fanatically anti-ia and well-armed Arch Enemy uh in Iraq and Syria at least until recently you had Iran facing large Sunni insurgencies dedicated to slaughtering the Shia uh then there's the internal unrest within Iran a lot of younger people a lot of younger Iranians take a more liberal view about the world and their parents and certainly the Shia clerical regime so are you overlooking Iran's real weaknesses and limitations well he only gave me 50 minutes to talk I if he had uh been willing to fulfill my request to be able to talk for two hours I would have qualified my argument somewhat though there's absolutely no question that Iran has significant problems but the thing you want to remember about Iran is that Iran is much more powerful than all of its neighbors it has a very large population and the human C Capital inside of Iran is very impressive right and if you were to look at the potential balance of power between Iran and Saudi Arabia if they were both able to mobilize all their resources it's a Bambi versus Godzilla situation that's why the Saudis are so interested in the Abraham Accord the Saudis want to jump into bed with the Israelis and the Americans because the Saudis understand that the Iranians have a lot of potential power right whenever you want to measure the power of a country the two things that you go to number one are population size and number two are wealth number two is wealth right wealth and population size and it you look at the Iranian situation they are potentially a very powerful country which is not to take away from your points about the problems that they face okay now it's time for question time and please I'd encourage oh good I encourage you to try to keep you a question shorter than mine were but also uh feel free to ask about not just the Middle East but also Ukraine and China about which John has spoken in a great detail uh first question you've talked about how uh Israel are now stuck in Gaza do you see similar trap for the us or do they have a path forward and out of this well the United States is not going into Gaza right I mean we're not putting forces in there but we are joined at the hip with Israel we have this special relationship so that as long as Israel is bogged down in Gaza and having all sorts of problems both in terms of dealing with the Palestinians and dealing with the wider World it has huge consequences for us we end up vetoing Security Council resolutions that we don't want to veto it ends up poisoning our relations with the Egyptians and the jordanians so there are all sorts of spin-off consequences for us that are negative and this is why the Biden Administration to its credit is deeply committed to trying to figure out how to solve this one as I said before we'd like mmud abas to come in take over then we can get the rich Arab countries to pour money in we can rebuild Gaza and live happily ever after that's what we want to do because this is not our interest to let this go on but the problem we face is we can't get the Israelis to go along with us this is well documented uh and the end result is you know no end to trouble certainly for the Israelis but even for us next question yes sir uh thanks John Lan McIntyre um since Australia's security depends on the United States do we have no option but to take sides in uh Gaza and Ukraine meaning Australia uh I'm not sure what taking sides means uh if you're talking about Hamas versus Israel that's very different than talking about the Palestinians versus Israel right in other words I know lots of people who love Hamas and hope Israel destroys it who are very sympathetic to the Palestinians who believe that Israel is Crea is committing genocide right so I would argue you can take the side of the Palestinians if you are uh an Australian and you can make the argument that that's in Israel's interest right people who've argued for a two-state solution have long argu that's in Israel's interest that's the solution that's the argument but if it's a choice between Hamas and Israel Australia certainly the government and most people who operate in the foreign policy establishment they have no choice but decide with Israel against Tomas next question John Connor yes you're your your part of your proposition essentially is that there is no support in Israel for a two-state solution now I know that there's an organization which membership of which is confined to people who've been the rank of major or above in one of the four Israeli defense and intelligence institutions that is consistently argued I've not checked since October but it's consistently argued in favor of two state state solution while recognizing it's difficult I really think that that was is in fact a reflection of at least the views of a significant part of the Israeli intelligence and Military establishment prior to October 7 now given that and sufficient pressure from the US and otherwise and elsewise may require transfers of population from Gaza and the 500,000 settlers in the West Bank Israeli settlers but surely there must be to some degree you may be pushing on an open door and trying to arrive at that solution with all with all due respect I I don't agree with you on that I think there are a handful of people uh in the Israeli establishment who are in favor of a two-state solution but uh they're small in number and the elites uh who sorry that a that organization includes the heads of all of those four previous heads of all of those four organizations various of still a small number I I I believe there's no evidence furthermore the Israelis are not going to agree to two-state solution after what happened on October 7th you're going to create a viable Palestinian state that has weapons of its own own on your border uh you've not defeated Hamas you've just suffered this devastating uh defeat on October 7th it's just not going to happen Okay next question Tony and then we'll go to Anon i' I'd like to just push on this two- State solution a bit bit further um and really as you as a realist I mean basically you said that a greater Israel um with the pal you know um the West Bank and Gaza in it as as a Democratic state is is is is is is off the table I think everybody can understand that um I think that ethnic cleansing is off the table because it's not going to happen um nobody's going to allow Israel to do that and I'm not even sure that Israel wants to do that so you are driven back to the two-state solution and and I'm I'm sort of intrigued as a realist why you're not embracing that and and and can I just push you on can't the United States really use its influence to create that solution coming out of this look I hope that I'm wrong and the two-state solution is a viable alternative the Israelis wake up and smell the coffee and the Americans do what you described you know I've been wrong before and if there's an issue I'd like to be wrong on moving forward this is the issue so in spirit I'm with you right but I don't think as I said to the gentleman on your right that there is much enthusiasm for a two-state solution before October 7th inside of Israel and certainly now and public opinion is against the two-state solution as well as Elite opinion and furthermore with regard to to the United States putting pressure on Israel Steve Walt and I wrote this book on the Israel Lobby Steve wal from Harvard University yeah Steve Walt who teachers at Harvard he and I wrote the book on the Israel Lobby and there's no way any American government can put significant pressure on Israel well you say that but the Reagan Administration put pressure on uh Israel and uh prime minister bigan when they invaded Souther Lebanon this is the New York Times uh I think this was just a few days ago they quoted this is a quote Mr Reagan used the power of us arms several times to influence Israeli War policy at different points including war planes cluster Munitions to be delayed or withheld and of course Joe Biden has recently withheld uh the support of 3 and a half thousand bombs to Israel so so much for the Israel Lobby no uh no I mean the there you could point to one or two instances uh back in the distant passed where the United States put some pressure on Israel and the Reagan Administration in 1982 yeah was a that was a with President Bush Sena uh with the settlements he failed he failed it went nowhere right no president has been able to put mean Joe Biden is not going to put meaningful pressure on the lobby Joe Biden you understand Joe Biden wants to win the election this coming November and if Joe Biden gets tough on Israel you'll see what Brett you'll have Brett Stevens ass here ask Brett Stevens he wrote a big column as soon as soon as Joe Biden told Israel he was holding up these extra bombs that they really didn't need anyway because they've got so many bombs as soon as that happened Brett Stevens had a column and all sorts of supporters of Israel told Joe Biden in no uncertain terms you want to remember you're up for re-election and we won't forget and of course the problem that Biden faces as you all know is that Arab Americans and many others uh are going to punish well the running joke around Jerusalem is that having been strongly supportive of Netanyahu after October 7 Joe Biden is seriously invested in the two-state solution Michigan and Pennsylvania okay an Anon I have um two questions but I'll make them very very quick firstly you you said a couple of times that uh Israel is stuck in uh Gaza they can't get out can you be more specific about why they are stuck and why they can't withdraw um and my second question in all the decades that you have been following this conflict the situation closely where do you think Israel is currently you said that you reputationally politically they're losing but specifically in regards to the information War um and their ability to put out disinformation you we've got had beheaded babies and PE people being baked and widespread sexual violence do you think that this is different in terms of people's willingness the broader public or the greater West's willingness to believe yeah everything that is these are two great questions as are all the other questions uh for sure but uh just on the first there's the first question is why are the Israelis why am I saying the Israelis are stuck in Gaza well they have said they're not leaving Gaza right they're going to stay there and they understand that's a choice it is a choice but they decided to stay I I mean I I said they're stuck in Gaza and I just I said that's because they decided to stay there I mean it may be a choice you might not like the choice but that's the choice they made made and you want to remember they've not defeated Hamas number one and number two there's the question who's going to run the place right so they're going to stay how they you know do this remains to be seen where how many troops they leave where those troops are deployed how those troops act that remains to be seen but they're stuck second question is a very interesting question it was all about controlling the narrative uh the Israeli controlled the narrative in really powerful ways up until the late 1980s then you had this group of historians in Israel called the new historians who uh were then young at the time and they got access to the archives and they got access to the records on how Israel was created uh and what they did is they exploded all the myths or almost all the myths about how Israel was created and it really uh portrayed the Israelis in a negative light okay and that was the start of trouble and I could tell you all sorts of stories about that uh because people began to think differently about Israel uh than from the way we thought about when I was young there was a book by Leon Urus it was called Exodus and everybody read it and it was a movie Paul Newman and even Marie Saints starred in it and it portrayed the Israelis in a very positive light and the Arabs in a very negative light and once the new historians came along all sorts of people mainly at the elite level began to think differently about the creation of Israel and Israel's Behavior then what happens uh is you get social media and you get the internet and Israel has huge influence and influencing what the uh uh Wall Street Journal what the New York Times what the Washington Post says but Tick Tock is a nightmare for Israel it's it's an utter nightmare there's this famous conversation uh that you can get on the internet of Jonathan greenblat who who is the head of the Anti-Defamation League the ADL he's Abe foxman's successor uh he's on the phone talking to somebody and it's you know there's a video of it and he's talking about Tick Tock and uh it's just a disaster for Israel people see what's happening and the Israelis this is really quite remarkable the Israelis are filming themselves doing absolutely horrible things to to the Palestinians and then putting it on the Internet it's just hard to believe and furthermore just on the whole genocide story you know I if you want to make the case that Israel is guilty of genocide you have to do two things you have to provide evidence of intent number one and you have to provide evidence that Israel's actions are consistent with the intent now with regard to intent the Israeli leaders across the board including Benjamin N Net after October 7th said all sorts of things that in my opinion demonstrated genocidal intent this was documented in the uh the South African cases yes documented in the South African case and by the way there was a piece in har rets which is like the New York Times of Israel a lift laning Israeli publication yeah liberal I Ed word liberal American liberal yeah American liberal uh but but anyway there was peace in haret and the headline of the peace in haret said the road to the hag this is the uh International court of justice decision uh on whether's potentially genocide the haret piece said the road to the H this is the headline the road to the ha is paved with public comments by Israeli leaders which is exactly right you just sort of say to yourself are they really saying these things right and then again you have all these videos uh and you know I was talking to my daughter one day who's not very political at all she's in her 40s and she was talking about uh watching what the Israelis are doing uh to children on Tik Tock and she said I can't watch Tik Tock I just can't watch these videos anymore they're so horrible right this is a disaster for Israel it's a public relations disaster John we've been uh very happy to welcome uh students from year 12 so their last year at high school from Ravenswood College which is a prestigious School in senior we've got some students here got one school teacher I think wants to ask a question and they will'll also ask uh one of the students to ask a question if that's possible sure yeah thanks for the thanks for the talk um you mentioned the winners and losers referring to the US Iran and um Israel of this war um but I'm wondering I'd like to hear what you feel um will be the impact on the 7.4 million Palestinians the other party to the war in the long run obviously they're suffering at the moment um but my real question is really about the one-state solution you said the options are um are a one-state solution two-state solution continued apartheid or ethnic cleansing and for those of us that believe that ethnic cleansing and apartheid are not acceptable and that want to see um the maintenance of international law that leaves us with the one state or two State and I think many experts are saying the two states not possible given the patchwork of illegal settlements so what would have to change in the future to bring about a one-state solution you know as I said did everybody hear the question uh I I don't have a good answer to that uh I I mean as I said to these two gentlemen uh on my left I hope that I'm wrong and they're right about the possibility of a two-state solution I I think they're wrong um and as I made clear and I don't think there's any way you're going to get a one-state solution and I I kind of don't I I I don't fully understand where this train is headed right I I think Israel is in deep trouble uh I think the Israelis will continue to push at ethnic cleansing I I think that's what you're going to see I think for the reasons I tried to elaborate here that from their point of view seems to be the best solution uh I don't think they can get away with it I'm not 100% sure I hope they can't get away with it but where this all all ends uh you know it gets back to the brief discussion I was having with Tom when Tom said oh Israel has a nuclear weapon it's not going anywhere and uh you want to remember that South Africa had a nuclear weapon as I reminded Tom and apartheid South Africa disappeared the sort of long-term future of Israel is in question for a lot of reasons uh many of which I have not touched on tonight for Tim related reasons but you want to understand that after immediately after October 7th 500,000 Israelis left the country 500,000 Israelis left Israel after October yeah wow yeah and uh it's just you know I was talking to somebody who is in the Polish foreign policy establishment the other day and he was telling me you'd be amazed at how many Israelis are applying for a a Polish uh uh a pardon citizenship yeah polish citizenship uh so they can have a Polish passport and and the same is true with other European countries uh so you you just you don't I don't want to get into the centrifugal forces that are at play inside of Israel because it's too late in the evening but uh this is a country that just has lots of problems and where this all goes I I don't know not least the demographic challenges now do we have a question from one of the students at rivenwood hello um I'm a year 12 student at um ravenson School for Girls um the question that I want to ask is um essentially looking at the US election how do you think the conflict in the Middle East and the impact of non-state actors will influence the result in the upcoming US election which you touched on earlier your talk thank you I'm jealous of all you students you're so young it's depressing to think how old I am yeah it's a very interesting question what happens if Trump gets elected uh first of all I think in terms of the Middle East and in terms of East Asia it will have little effect okay the interesting question is whether it will matter in Europe with regard to Nato and with regard to Putin as we all know from the last time around with Trump he really uh wanted to throw NATO down the toilet bowl he has no use for NATO he thinks their European allies are Free Loaders and uh he'd like to get rid of them and uh he likes Putin uh this is not surprising and he really wanted to have good relations with Putin he lost on both counts the blob were the Deep State whatever you want to call it beat him back he is now determined if he wins to not let that happen again and he is number one going to bring in a whole group of seasoned individuals who served with him in the first term who share his view of the world he didn't have those people available in 2017 when he moved in the White House January 2017 he now feels and I think it's correct that he can bring in a team of individuals and they collectively can beat back the Deep state number one and number two at the Heritage Foundation they're coming up with a plan for what to do once they move back into the White House in 2025 so they're going to have the people they're going to have the plan or the grand strategy and then the question is can they make it work and again my initial point to you is I think that where they will try to change things in a fundamental way is in Europe and the question you have to ask yourself is do you think that Trump even with all of the preparation that's now in train do you think that Trump can beat the Deep state I'm a structuralist as some of you know the students clearly know this I believe that structure really matters and it limits how much agency someone like Trump has so I'm betting on the Deep state with regard to Nato and with regard to Europe and uh I think uh I think whether Trump or Biden wins it won't matter that much on the foreign policy front uh I think the die is cast here certainly in East Asia I think the die is cast in the Middle East I mean what's going to do in the Middle East what's Trump going to do differently uh well the Republican party is clearly more pro-israel than the Democrat Party correct yeah but even there because of my point to Tony about the lobby right the the the Democratic party is filled with people who are especially among the younger Democrats who are I think it's fair to say hostile to Israel at this point in time but the elite the the Democratic party Elites the people who run the country they're you know no different than the Republicans right it's tweetle D and tweetle dum uh and uh and Joe Biden it will be the Democrat if the Democrats when it'll be Donald Trump if the Republicans and I just don't think you're going to get much difference there unfortunately we are running out of time but I just want to conclude and make a few remarks about CIS two of our favorite quotes you've heard me say this before first from John Stewart Mill the famous uh English liberal thinker of the 19th century he famously said he who knows only his own position knows little of that and what that meant was is as my friend and mentor and former C senior fellow Owen Harry's used to put it and this is very relevant for the students in the room take particular care to understand the position of your adversary and to understand it not in a charactered or superficial form but at its strongest for until you have rebutted it at its strongest you have not rebutted it at all and this is a necessary condition for both developing your own position fully and attacking your opponents successfully that's the first quote our other fa favorite quot at CIS is from the great 20th century public intellectual Walter Litman also a foreign policy realist and he said we all think alike no one thinks very much now I think tonight we heard a strikingly different view from the one you'll hear in the Australian newspaper the financial review The Wall Street Journal The Daily Telegraph I only mention these papers because these are papers that you and I read regularly and I think it's fair to say that on behalf of our colleagues and board members here at CIS John we're very grateful for you being here putting forward the counterargument you'll hear from Brett Stevens in a month's time please join me and thanking join me [Music] for decades CIS has been a fiercely independent voice working hard to promote sound liberal principles to be notified of our future videos make sure you subscribe to our Channel then click the notification Bell we rely solely on the generosity of people like you for donations to advance our classical liberal cause check out the links on screen now to see how you can get involved [Music] [Applause] [Music]