Agile Decision Making Strategies

Oct 9, 2024

Lecture on Agile Decision Making by Professor Arnaud Chevalier

Introduction

  • Topic: Agile decision making, especially under high uncertainty.
  • Context: Relevant in situations like COVID-19.
  • Agenda:
    • Example of a bad decision.
    • Tools to avoid mistakes.
    • Reflection and interaction on tools.
    • Q&A session.

Historical Example: World War II

  • Scenario: May 1944, Nazi Germany predicting Allied invasion.
  • German Strategy:
    • Fortifications along the coast.
    • Reserve troops (panzer divisions) ready to dispatch.
  • Failure:
    • Misjudged the location of the invasion (Normandy).
    • Delayed deployment of reserves due to uncertainty.
    • Resulted in a successful Allied foothold.

Corporate Analogies

  • Companies like Kodak, Nokia, and Boeing delayed decisions under uncertainty.
  • Highlighting the importance of timely decision-making.

Three-Step Process for Agile Decision Making

  1. Define the Futures:

    • Realization that the future can't be predicted but can be planned for.
    • Bookend extreme scenarios (worst to best case).

  2. Prepare for the Futures:

    • Identify forces that shape the future and their leading indicators.
    • Example: Airline CEO predicting passenger numbers post-COVID.
    • Identify success in worst-case and best-case scenarios.
    • Success plans and rollout timelines.

  3. Adapt:

    • Continuously monitor and adapt strategies based on evolving conditions.
    • Rollout success plans while narrowing focus as more information becomes available.

Key Points on Decision Making

  • Agility involves being able to course correct as new evidence arrives.
  • Effectiveness vs. Efficiency:
    • Prioritize effectiveness in high uncertainty.
    • Minimize the gap between current actions and ideal actions.

Interactive Session

  • Poll: Identifying beneficial actions.
  • Discussions on Implementation:
    • Importance of monitoring forces.
    • Fast prototyping and adapting strategies.

Q&A Highlights

  • Trade-offs: Delay irreversible decisions until more certainty.
  • Agility Definition: Ability to update plans with new evidence.
  • Time-sensitive Decisions: Focus on good questions, options, and criteria.
  • Leadership: Communicate uncertainty and adapt plans visibly.

Conclusion

  • Engagement: Encouragement for further conversation and resources.
  • Contacts and Resources: Twitter, Dragon Master app, and blog.

Closing

  • Thank you message and invitation for future interactions.

These notes summarize key points on agile decision making under uncertainty, utilizing historical and corporate examples to illustrate principles and strategies.