Understanding War, Conflict, and Deterrence

Nov 27, 2024

Lecture on War and Conflict

Historical Context

  • Warfare has been a constant throughout human civilization.
  • Conflicts evolved from tribal to national scales.

Reasons for War

  • Territory or Resources: Wars to acquire land or resources.
  • Governance: To change the government of another country.
  • Self-Defense: Protect from perceived threats.
    • Preemptive War: Considered lawful, striking first due to an imminent threat.
    • Preventive Strike War: Less legitimate, aimed at stopping a gathering threat.

Deterrence in Warfare

  • Military Power: Discourages attacks due to possible retaliation.
  • Alliances: Countries form alliances for mutual defense.
    • Example: Country B's alliance with Country C deters Country A.
    • Alliances can also be aggressive, e.g., Axis powers in WWII.
  • Nuclear Deterrence: Nuclear weapons prevent full-scale wars between nuclear states.
    • Example: Cold War, US vs. Soviet Union, prevented by mutually assured destruction.

Shifts in Conflict Patterns

  • Decline of Interstate Wars: Less common due to robust deterrence.
  • Rise of Civil Wars: More common due to internal instability.
    • Wars of Secession: Groups attempt to break away.
    • Wars of Succession: Groups fight to change governance.

Characteristics of Civil Wars

  • Often occur in weak/failed states.
  • High corruption, inequality, and violence.
  • Global implications: refugee crises, terrorism, organized crime.
  • Hinders global cooperation on issues like climate change.
  • Can become proxy wars for larger powers supporting opposing sides.

Modern Warfare and Non-Traditional Conflict

  • Non-State Actors: Terrorists, cyber warfare replace traditional soldiers.
  • Cyber Warfare: Challenges traditional deterrence; hard to identify attackers.
  • Terrorist Groups: Not deterred by conventional military or economic threats.

Historical Examples

  • 20th Century World Wars: Major loss of life in WWI and WWII.
  • Modern conflicts continue to evolve, though reasons for war remain consistent.