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Understanding War, Conflict, and Deterrence
Nov 27, 2024
Lecture on War and Conflict
Historical Context
Warfare has been a constant throughout human civilization.
Conflicts evolved from tribal to national scales.
Reasons for War
Territory or Resources
: Wars to acquire land or resources.
Governance
: To change the government of another country.
Self-Defense
: Protect from perceived threats.
Preemptive War
: Considered lawful, striking first due to an imminent threat.
Preventive Strike War
: Less legitimate, aimed at stopping a gathering threat.
Deterrence in Warfare
Military Power
: Discourages attacks due to possible retaliation.
Alliances
: Countries form alliances for mutual defense.
Example: Country B's alliance with Country C deters Country A.
Alliances can also be aggressive, e.g., Axis powers in WWII.
Nuclear Deterrence
: Nuclear weapons prevent full-scale wars between nuclear states.
Example: Cold War, US vs. Soviet Union, prevented by mutually assured destruction.
Shifts in Conflict Patterns
Decline of Interstate Wars
: Less common due to robust deterrence.
Rise of Civil Wars
: More common due to internal instability.
Wars of Secession
: Groups attempt to break away.
Wars of Succession
: Groups fight to change governance.
Characteristics of Civil Wars
Often occur in weak/failed states.
High corruption, inequality, and violence.
Global implications: refugee crises, terrorism, organized crime.
Hinders global cooperation on issues like climate change.
Can become proxy wars for larger powers supporting opposing sides.
Modern Warfare and Non-Traditional Conflict
Non-State Actors
: Terrorists, cyber warfare replace traditional soldiers.
Cyber Warfare
: Challenges traditional deterrence; hard to identify attackers.
Terrorist Groups
: Not deterred by conventional military or economic threats.
Historical Examples
20th Century World Wars: Major loss of life in WWI and WWII.
Modern conflicts continue to evolve, though reasons for war remain consistent.
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