The world population is projected to grow from 8.2 billion in 2024 to a peak of around 10.3 billion in the 2080s, according to a UN report.
After peaking, the population is expected to decline slightly to approximately 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
The probability of the world's population peaking within the current century is high at about 80%.
Factors Influencing Population Growth
Lower Fertility Rates: Key countries like China are experiencing lower fertility rates, contributing to earlier-than-expected population peaks.
China's population is projected to dramatically drop from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million by 2100.
Global Fertility Trends:
Women globally are having one fewer child on average than in 1990.
Over half of all countries have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.
Ultra-low fertility rates are prevalent in about 20% of the world, including countries like China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, with fertility rates below 1.4.
Population Peak and Decline
By 2024, 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia, have already peaked in population.
These countries are projected to see a 14% population decline in the next 30 years.
48 countries, such as Brazil, Iran, and Turkey, are expected to peak between 2025 and 2054.
Remaining 126 countries, including the USA, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan, will see population growth through 2054.
Rapid growth is expected in nine countries, including Angola and Nigeria, with populations doubling between 2024 and 2054.
Demographic Trends and Implications
The demographic transition involves longer lifespans and smaller families across countries.
By 2080, people aged 65 and older will outnumber those under 18.
Immigration will be a significant factor in population growth for some countries.
Gender equality and women's empowerment are pivotal in countering population growth trends.
Policy Implications and Challenges
Rapid population growth poses challenges for poverty eradication, healthcare, and education.
Countries with low fertility may need innovative policies for labor markets and social security.
Future Projections
The list of the most populous countries is expected to change by 2100:
India remains the most populous, followed by a smaller China.
The US will drop from third to sixth place, with Pakistan rising to third.
Nigeria, Congo, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Bangladesh will also be among the top ten populous countries.
Conclusion
The report highlights the importance of our behaviors and choices concerning population dynamics.
The demographic divide is growing, with significant implications for global policy and development strategies.