It's Not the 1970s Again for Latin America's Militaries: Key Points
Context and Background
Latin American militaries were historically influential in political affairs, especially during the Cold War era.
By 1977, most countries in Latin America were under military dictatorships.
Military rule was often characterized by human rights abuses and policy failures, leading to a decline in military control by the 1990s.
Recent Developments
Protests in 2019 in countries like Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and Bolivia saw presidents show military support publicly.
Increased visibility of militaries in Brazil, Venezuela, and Central America led to fears of a return to militarism.
However, current military restraint is largely due to past negative experiences.
Civilian-Military Dynamics
Civilian leaders often seek legitimacy from military support in times of crisis.
Latin American militaries are among the most trusted institutions regionally, as per polls.
Civilian leaders tend to demonstrate military backing to show stability and control.
Historical Shift
Historically, military coups were seen as stabilizing; however, post-1960s, militaries were conditioned to govern directly, leading to widespread dictatorships.
By 1990, only Cuba remained a true dictatorship.
Since re-democratization in the 1980s, militaries have faced constraints from interfering in politics.
Contemporary Challenges
Many militaries are searching for a new identity and role within society.
Decline of interstate conflict and domestic insurgencies has led to discussions about the role of conventional militaries.
Militaries have been involved in non-traditional tasks like peacekeeping, law enforcement, and environmental efforts.
Rising Trust and Roles
Public trust in militaries has risen as democratic institutions face challenges.
Militaries have assumed responsibilities like disaster response, infrastructure projects, and social services.
This shift has improved the public image of militaries compared to past excesses.
Types of Civil-Military Relations
Revolutionary Model
Seen in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela where militaries are heavily involved in governance and the economy.
Consultative Variant
In countries like Guatemala and Brazil, retired military officers play advisory roles in politics.
Potential Futures
There is a correlation between the failure of democratic institutions and the military stepping in as a stopgap.
Public support for military coups is notable if in response to high crime or corruption.
The key question remains whether civilian leaders can regain trust and meet public expectations.
Conclusions
Current trends do not indicate a return to military rule, but the possibility remains if democratic governance fails.
Militaries prefer to remain uninvolved politically but are aware of public opinion.
Authors
Mora: Director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, FIU.
Fonseca: Director of the Gordon Institute for Public Policy, FIU.