Lecture Notes on Public Opinion and Democratic Politics

Introduction to Public Opinion

• Public opinion is crucial in democratic politics.
• It is challenging to discern actual public opinion.
• Individuals are more immersed in personal than public affairs.
• Public opinion assumes an informed and engaged populace.

Historical Perspectives on Public Opinion

• Edmund Burke: Argued citizens can't make policy judgments; representatives should use their judgment.
• Jeremy Bentham: Believed public opinion protects against misrule; citizens' opinions should be heard.

Determining Public Opinion

• Scientific polling became prominent in the 1930s.
• Gallup poll: Gained credibility in the 1936 presidential election.
• Polls are now standard for gauging public opinion.

Polling Methodology

• Uses a sample of individuals to estimate population opinions.
• Relies on the laws of probability for accuracy.
• Sample size is more crucial than population size.
• Sampling Error: Difference between sample estimate and actual population figure.
• Most polls use samples between 400 and 1500 respondents.

Attributes of Public Opinion

• Direction: Whether people favor or oppose a policy.
  • Example: Post-9/11 consensus on invading Afghanistan.
• Intensity: How strongly people feel.
  • Example: Anti-abortion opinions were very intense in 2012.
• Salience: Importance of an issue relative to others.
  • High salience issues are more likely to be addressed by officials.

Case Study: Gun Control in the U.S.

• America has many guns and gun deaths.
• History of gun control legislation shows a trend towards fewer restrictions.
• Public Opinion on Gun Control:
  • Split on prioritizing gun control vs gun rights.
  • Gun control opponents show more intensity and willingness to act.
  • Salience of gun violence spikes after mass shootings.
• Political and Partisan Considerations:
  • Rural vs urban divides affect opinions.
  • Diffuse benefits vs concentrated costs explain policy inertia.

Influence of Public Opinion on Policy

• Public opinion is a constraint on officials.
• Social Security: Example of a policy with strong public support.
• Many decisions occur outside public awareness.
• High-visibility issues tend to align policy with public opinion.
• Research shows public opinion influences policy direction.
• Politicians are influenced but not entirely led by public opinion.

Conclusion

• Early theories of public opinion and the impact of scientific polling.
• Importance of sample size and random selection in polling.
• Attributes of opinion affect likelihood of policy response.
• Strong link between public opinion and policy on salient, high-profile issues.