Transcript for:
Butterfly Effect L12: Walking Through a Move 1

if it's gonna move down it's gonna do it off this range not this range right here i think it could but yeah if it's gonna move down i think it does it off the higher range seems like a pretty decent level 66.87 i mean 6687 looks decent 66 85 88. come on did i already get picked up hello oh dead nice there we go come on bitcoin pull back so you guys can see how i found that level um how i played it how i found the level um kind of in the moment exact seconds and it's free rolling right now right so what i'll do here is put this at 95 or 90 in case it breaks back over and i can just click and get out it starts moving up you know ridiculously fast i can just click and get out or i could take profits now 100 bucks i think i'm gonna let it ride a little bit i'm gonna see a pullback here i think i can realistically close this whenever i want now because i could just buy up right so i could just click this at any time and buy up so um that's fine but i do see i do think we're going to see a big pullback so hopefully you guys got in on that trade at 87. there it comes yeah there it is at the top boys this i'm gonna buy up because we hit trend backside of trend um i will buy that up and take my profits there so uh just over six hundred dollars in profits because i do see we hit trend and bounced off so i did take my profit so um yeah now it's likely going to fall below trend but again it's 100 in two minutes right so more than 100 in in a few minutes so um like i said it's likely going to fall but to take 100 in two minutes it's like yeah we could be done work for the day right that's that's like six hundred dollars today we just made so um yeah likely going to fall further here but um that's okay again it's uh i think it's a pretty good trade for one minute sometimes you just have to cut your losses i wasn't looking to turn this into a bigger trade but maybe i should have but that's okay too again just taking taking what uh damn whoa that really fell i missed a lot one of the reasons i didn't want to um stay in this trade also is because i don't have levels marked out below so i'm not really prepared for where this could possibly go um yeah i'm not at all prepared for where this can go and this is kind of like the last thing i want to see is this thing rip right back up and then it you know breaks back up i definitely don't want to see that now i don't think that's going to happen here but yeah i probably definitely left way too soon but that's okay it's like yeah catching that top was important there because you guys can see how it reduces risk right and the last thing i want to do is see this trend confirmed it's the first touch of the trend and it's moving up right so so you guys see how i manage the trade i waited for the right moment i executed it in that second just like we did yesterday right executed in that second make my decision i have my level marked out i know i'm going to target that so when i see it moving up really quick like i told you guys yesterday i see it moving up extremely quick i can just enter my trade in one second it's filled and then i can uh start preparing my exit to where i wanted to now again this was a scalp probably should have waited but that's okay 100 100 and whatever percent in a couple minutes is pretty decent so yeah that that's going to be the action for a while here on bitcoin now because it's just gonna be either falling um to get re-entry on this for the next part of the move oh boy i'd like to see where it stabilizes instead of uh worrying so we made about 1.3 and lost probably another one one point something that's too bad but that's okay still i mean that's that's great profit that we just made so no big deal this is this is likely starting a downtrend like this is what i was saying it's going to be a very crucial point that we're in in the moment whether it's breaking up or down these could be the best entries for a big move up to the weekly or this could be the best entry for a big breakdown so there's a couple scenarios here that i don't really like but yeah i'm not bad i think this is a huge move down seeing this kind of volume 7 000 bitcoin well actually this is buying up volume though this is offsetting the shorts so i don't know i guess we'll see this is a crazy amount of volume like th this two minutes 12 000 bitcoin this is a high amount of volume that's that's really really high holy hannah is that ever high like those two minutes is like more than what most hourly candles have that's crazy well at least you saw how like it's it's done right like at least you saw how to execute the move like you have kind of two levels right you have these two different levels you have um you're kind of your intermediate level which was at 66 42 which was like nah that kind of looks like crap and then you have your higher level which is like okay this is most likely going to reject like the chance that this rejects is huge right just just because again you're kind of creeping up to this level it's going to explode over top of it and it's just going to target the next um piece of the move right so and and sometimes you don't necessarily want to just continuously ride and move down sometimes you want to be able to just say oh hey look there's a percent one point something especially if you're on 100x like that's a lot of money right so sometimes you just exit at one percent regardless or or you know 1.5 or whatever you know you have a criteria based on the move like um sometimes you just want to take different exits and entries right yeah because it hadn't really tested the back side of trend so it did have a little bounce there so the last thing i want to do is lose profits because this thing rips right back up right like it was over a percent at that point i think it was like one point literally caught here to about here so it's like 1.3 that i got and um 1.36 so like the last thing i want to do is start getting into like a scenario where i'm like oh this is 0.8 profits and it was such a good trade you know like 80 is not enough for me there now it falls down another percent in a bit but the last thing i want to do is be in a situation where like man i have to exit this trade on a failing level right so too many times i've been in situations and well yeah you know you just trade over time and that's what it is right not everything is big massive rejections like this like this is nice to catch like you know two percent move like this um in a few minutes like that's fantastic and and if you had all the levels charted and everything and i had some levels charted down here but i didn't really have time to look at them but so many times you see like oh i could have made a percent and then it moves up in your 0.4 and then it's like okay what do i do now because i'm going to pull back to try to hold the move and i could sell there or i could just continue to hope it moves down still so instead of a scalp it becomes more of a position trade but sometimes when you can make like one to one point five on a scalp and it's only a few minutes like why wouldn't you you know like if you're especially if you're 100xing these extreme levels like this like take take your profits because that allows you to just either walk away for the day and just start back again tomorrow um or or it allows you to just simply uh continue to trade with no risk because now we have a you know a positive profit of 620 and there's no risk and you know um that was you know we did the same thing yesterday morning we we walked on we found a move yesterday's was four percent which was nice um today's was uh only two percent right um but it's like the same thing you just like you know if you make 500 a day and you worked 300 days a year like what is that you know 150 grand to work all of you know one hour a day so that's like pretty crazy right so sometimes you just have to realize like oh i'm up a percent or two let's just find another spot because there's nothing wrong with taking one to two percent all day long across different trades you know what i mean like no risk trading and just taking these spots because now we've you know two mornings in a row we've done this exact same thing so now it's like okay that's cool step on take one trade step off right so it's like yep pretty good just want you guys to realize like i have a few different levels marked out here let's talk about the trade um i have a few different levels marked out here right like my first entry earlier in the day was that uh and it really pissed me off because i tried to buy this level and uh in my order history here um well it doesn't matter i i i bought this level and i got filled for like this top of the move here was actually my order the 66 3350 that's my order but it only filled two out of 40 bitcoins i put a couple thousand dollars on this and uh so it didn't get whatever whatever this one was here where was it 6610 and only got filled for two bitcoin that's what it was it was some level at 66.10 where where the hell was that and it was the top of the move so it was uh i don't remember there's one of these candles in here anyways it doesn't matter and so so it's like it doesn't get filled um that that's where my trade starts like that's where this whole thing starts here so you know i get up i start trading at it's uh 5 a.m there um i start trading at 5 a.m start marketing levels and doing all these different things um really i was targeting this range so actually you know what the best way to do this would be to go here btc usd perp like this um [Music] and to uh go here and uh really what was happening in this moment was like this right it was quite it was quite simple right it's like okay this thing looks like it's gonna have a pullback sorry i'm on a 15 minute time frame here i need to be on a smaller time frame yeah so this is where we see that pullback this morning yeah right so this is this is what we're looking at so you know you've got some some different levels here um where you know you're you're kind of looking and saying okay like here's you know your first rejection point here's your second rejection point and this is what i was looking at here and uh you know you you come up here and and this is where my trade it was 63 33 50. so so i kind of got the last order but it was only for like two bitcoin i closed it at 66 10. that's what i was seeing but i opened it at 60 63 yeah right here 63.50 and it only filled me which was stupid because it only filled me for six like it only filled me for two bitcoin out of the 29 that i had up which was a piss off like it's like come on man like you know because because i'm targeting this level okay so or or i'm targeting this level here right because this is the five minute and the level gets front run a little bit so i go here and i'm like okay sixty sixty six uh 35 that's fine there's going to be a pullback on this level so here's a level right here it's a few cents away less than a dollar so i just do 66 350. obviously my order didn't get filled um at that point i'm no longer looking at this level i'm saying okay technically the level didn't get hit um yeah technically this level doesn't get hit okay so so that's fine um where can it target next so so then we're kind of going and saying okay here's that 42 level that we're looking at 6342 was um this right here kind of a greedier point and it's like okay well this could possibly have a move against that maybe it's going to first test this and then have its pullback so this was kind of the next range i was targeting right in the meanwhile i'm looking at this and saying where's the range that's untested on the larger time frame so i kind of have a few different parts of this trade planned out right i'm sitting here and i'm saying where's the range oh this is apparently a level from before right that's what it hit right 60 68 83 yeah that's what we would target what the hell is this from before oh it doesn't matter it's not it's not what it hits so that doesn't matter what it hit is this level here so i'm just simply looking at this and saying okay what's you know if this thing is going to move up quick what is it going to move up to you know exactly what it did what is it going to move up to if it starts to move up quick so i have a choice here this level i'm not even worried about targeting anymore um it's already tested um you know you're already testing inside of this range here so we can go back to the you know smaller time frame you already have a tested level here i'm not interested in that you haven't kind of an untested one here but again it's it's it's so close that there's no there's no reason for this level to be respected right like you measure how much profits could be there and it's like why take this trade when potentially it falls down and hits this whole level 0.5 so you kind of your first best case scenario 0.5 like why right just didn't make sense right so you know looking at this earlier and then you know find whatever we go through the motions here that level is finally hit for real and it's like okay fine this level is not going to be respected this 42 level is not going to hold the again it's the same thing it's like okay why why are you looking at a 0.2 move right like it pulls back for 0.2 percent people aren't going to take that trade it doesn't make sense like it's just you know when you see somebody dump thousands of bitcoin like what just happened you know that starts with with one person who has uh you know a thousand bitcoin wall typically not that that starts with one person who who trade executed the trade exactly like i did they bought down as it's moving up at the exact level right so so that's the thing so you know your decision is quick right in this moment i know this isn't really a realistic level at the same time here i can't see a bunch of um people trading down for one percent also at the same time i know this is trying to break a larger trend here so i don't think you're going to trend break into a you know a point of rejection that really doesn't make sense instead you have a very quick move and i was prepared to make that trade properly right so 66 87 is this the level we targeted oh this is a level okay so so it was this level um i thought it was up here 87. oh that's fine so so anyways the decision is the same it's just okay which which one right i'm actually surprised that this rejected so hard seeing that this is where it would reject to one percent i'm actually surprised that this pulled back so hard but again then what i was about to say is that there's also a larger event happening right now so this isn't kind of your typical move in in the moment right now usually i think this would have crept up to that level that we looked at that 68 level actually i think that would have crept up to that level relatively quickly but not maybe not in one or two candles i think you would have had you know five minute bursts all the way up to it but then we had um you know that larger trend oops let me erase this come on get out of here um then there's the larger trend that was going on on this trade right like you've got one trend here and you've got the back test of that daily and i know that daily is breaking um because it's on one of my charts so so i kind of know that daily's break i didn't always get a back test but that's fine [Music] what was that xbt oops let's go here i can't believe it back tested so perfectly unbelievable it's a good target right like it's a really good target um now whether the target was at or something else i don't think this move is done because i think you are breaking trend to go up after this level right here let's turn this purple but you guys can see how this trade unfolded why i targeted what i targeted and then what makes sense here on this trade we have that okay that's tested that's fine you guys can see why i targeted what i did right like kind of the same thing that happened yesterday in our trading session something's moving up quick i'm prepared with the level and in one you know a split second it's it's over so so that's the kind of reaction i'm looking for when i'm looking at seeing these levels hit i'm i'm not looking for something where it sits there and hugs the level and keeps attacking it i'm looking for these kind of instant pullbacks because this is you know a targeted level it's exactly what it is it's a targeted level now i'm almost wondering if this is actually pulling the move back off of this it could be still moving down um you know what i look at is something like this right now a very interior trend uh they're all gonna have small reactions it doesn't mean that they're gonna break the move but it's just all gonna have small reactions like this kind of small little trend like this that's nothing that i would say oh this is the this is the level right like that's not that's not the case um that's not the case it's it's just that it's like okay well yeah i might have a small reaction you see now this is the situation i don't want to be in that i was posed with earlier where it's like oh this level could reject it and then and then it's like oh it's not rejecting it should i sell well this level could have been what was rejecting this is kind of same scenario like where's the greediest point in this move that's going to pull this bit back if it's going to continue to move back or is it still just moving up because it back tested trend and now it's like the best entry before the move up to 73 45 right so always like a situation i don't want to be faced with so you know exiting here two minutes you know 135 yeah i'm good man you know so yeah just to uh talk through my trade and you know how i made the decisions i made and you know how i didn't enter the wrong trades in that moment it's just a matter of understanding like where you know like this doesn't make sense like this 42 level here it doesn't make sense i suppose you could have been in this trade got out with profits and uh protected yourself had you taken this trade but that's not always the case there's only two or three guys in the world who can trade like this maybe four maybe five i don't know but there's only a handful that can trade like this so you know i know that you know when they make decisions they make it with thousands of bitcoin right so so like when you see this you know this is one person starting a move and then you know bots pick up on it you have algorithms that say oh after it's moved up x amount of percent in five minutes and it moves down you know x amount of percent start selling right because it's it's programmed to see knife catches and things like that like there's only a few of us in the world who can do this consistently every single day