he [Music] good morning it's Friday August 30th the multif front war in the Middle East is now 329 days old I'm Jonathan shanzer senior vice president for research at foundation for defense of democracies welcome back back yet again to the FDD morning brief tough news yesterday as the IDF recovered the remains of an Israeli soldier who was murdered on October 7th The Soldier's name has not been released to the media at the request of the family it's hard to believe that it's been nearly 11 months and the IDF is still recovering live hostages and Fallen Soldiers Hamas has undoubtedly played this out for much longer than anyone ever expected myself included this has extended the trauma for for both Israelis and Palestinians here's hoping for an end to this crisis but until it ends we'll be tracking it every Monday Wednesday and Friday right here on the FDD morning brief Our Guest this morning is Lucas Tomlinson he's a correspondent at the Fox News Channel he's a graduate of the Naval Academy not too far from where I sit right now in Annapolis Maryland he served aboard the USS mackinery and he also operated in Kandahar province in Afghanistan he's reported live from conflicts in Israel Ukraine and Afghanistan we'll be checking in with him in just a few minutes after the Mad killed Hamas political leader Ismael hania in the heart of Tran on July 31st Hamas declared that 107 Mastermind Yahya senoir would consolidate power and run the terror group sino's Ascension ended the fiction of a firewall between the so-called political and Military wings of Hamas that was some serious bull schwarma Hamas is a paramilitary terrorist organization full stop then there was this Vine to replace hania was Qatar based khed mesel the Hamas leader who was nearly whacked by the mosad in Jordan in the 1990s he survived and moved to Qatar and a few weeks ago he appeared primed to step into Ham's smoldering shoes for reasons unclear mhal was passed over he appeared destined for obscurity then yesterday mhal Came Out Swinging he called on Hamas to resume suicide bombings for for those who don't recall that was the Hallmark of Hamas in the 1990s and early 2000s and it was gruesome the photos of Israeli buses restaurants and nightclubs filled with blood and body parts is not easy to forget here's what I won't forget mesel made his announcement from Turkey before returning home to Qatar Qatar and turkey are purported us allies both allow Hamas to operate on their soil this simply cannot continue the United States has leverage why are we not asking for the extradition of mesal and other Hamas figures to the US Israel or elsewhere if Decades of Terror is not a reason for doing so maybe someone can enlighten me what is now for your headlines headline one the United Nations security Council renewed the Mandate for the UN interim force in Lebanon or unifil unifil is the peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon and it has never kept the peace UNIF has been there since I was in diapers and that's actually somewhat fitting given the many messes that we have with witnessed there over the years after Israel and his baa fought a 34-day war in 2006 the UN increased the size of the unifil peacekeeping mission and expanded its mandate among the agency's jobs are to assist the Lebanese Armed Forces also known as the laugh fittingly in creating a buffer zone free of weapons and terrorists in southern Lebanon in other words it's supposed to be a check on his Bop renewing un's mandate is an annual ritual but here's what's absurd about this go around the renew mandate doesn't mention hisbah once of course the UN Security Council has failed to call out the Iran back terror group that has fired more than 7,500 rockets at Israel from inside unifil territory since October 8th another day another disappointment from the UN headline two Iran has reportedly increased its stockpile of enriched uranium according to the international atomic energy agency as of octo uh as of August 17th the Islamic Republic possesses 164.000 kilog of 60% enriched uranium that's just over 363 pounds for people who can't do metrics that marks an increase of nearly 50 pounds since May weapons grade uranium is enriched to 90% to make matters worse the jump from 60 to 90% isn't hard and according to the iaea Tron only needs about 92 pounds of the 60% stuff for a bomb I know that's a lot of numbers but it's all laid out in a confidential iaea report seen by the Associated Press the report is chock full of hard data about Iran's nuclear program including stats on uranium stockpile send refuges and the like I'm going to spare you more technical stuff and I'll just offer you the upshot Iran is only a hop skip and a jump from possessing nuclear weapons and that is the subject of a new report by FDD that I'll tell you about in just a few minutes so stay tuned headline three Israeli foreign minister Israel Catz called on Western countries to shore up Jordan against Iran Jordan is now very clearly part of Tran's Regional design the Islamic Republic would like to see the one stable hashimite kingom uh Kingdom turn volatile and create Chaos on Israel's eastern border the regime is working overtime to make that happen smuggling drugs weapons and funding into Jordan through Syria the drugs stay in Jordan to destabilize the country the weapons and cash are smuggled Overland into the West Bank for groups like Hamas and is Jihad the Israelis actually just found explosives yesterday that matched the explosive that went off prematurely last week in Tel Aviv I fear we may see more of that all right so here's what Catz proposes Israel's foreign minister wants a security fence along the Jordanian border to prevent the influx of Iranian weapons he wants continued counterterrorism operations in the West Bank he wants help from the US and other allies to strengthen Jordan's defenses and he wants to tight sanctions against the Islamic Republic will he get all that I doubt it but I hope so definitely not in holding my breath okay I'm now pleased to introduce Lucas Tomlinson as I mentioned he's a veteran of the US military who has served his country in Afghanistan and Beyond he's now at Fox News and he's done some great reporting from the Pentagon and several Hot War zones he's logged some time in Israel and he covers a bunch of files that we cover here at the FDD morning brief I'm pleased to help to welcome him now welcome to the FDD morning brief Lucas Tomlinson thank you so much Jonathan thanks for having me uh great to have you so first let me ask you something that a lot of nonf Fox News Watchers ask me when they learn that I appear on your Airwaves they ask is the foreign policy reporting from Fox partisan what would you say to that I would say it's not Jonathan uh just judging by how many uh guests a wide range of guests appear in our Network including your yourself FDD uh members of other think tanks I think Fox News of course I'm a little biased on this one I think we cover foreign policy pretty well judging by our you know stable of great reporters Jennifer Griffin our chief National Security correspondent Trey INX Jeff Paul and Alex Hogan all currently uh in Israel Jennifer of course at the Pentagon well all right thank you for that I do think it's kind of important I mean obviously there's a a bent that we can see on the network as it relates to politics but I do tend to agree that uh when it comes to foreign policy you guys are pretty much down the middle we see that by the way in a lot of other just look at the rundown yeah yeah all right well you've been to the region a good bit since the war broke out in the Middle East how many times have you gone and what have you seen what stands out for you in terms of the experiences that you've had over there well jonan about a few days after the ma Massacre on October 7th I just taking my children to school I was backing into my driveway and got a call from my bureau chief saying I need you in Israel tonight and while I didn't make it on the LL flight that night the next morning I was on my way so I arrived just a few days after the massacre spent about three weeks in Israel uh covering the War uh from Tel Aviv making trips outside Gaza um really going all over Israel of course it's a country about the size of New Jersey it's not hard to get around um but it it was an incredible experience and certainly seeing a country at War it left a profound impact I'm assuming you went right to the Gaza envelope when you covered it what did you see there what you know what can you tell us about what you saw just being outside Gaza you could see Israeli forces moving into the strip going over a bridge that takes you right into Gaza I also saw what surprised me but of course you know after a few days there it was not such a surprise how many Israelis the resilience of the Israelis uh who refused to leave their Apartments their homes you know was not quite uh in the buts areas we of course that saw the the massacre firsthand but some of the apartment complexes that are just you know a few miles outside of Gaza many Israelis were still living there living their lives they even offered us food I was like no no no that's for the soldiers that's for you know your countrymen and they were like no no you should have this um it left a profound effect and of course everybody in Israel was affected by the massacre everybody had a a family member who was either sadly killed serving in the IDF a friend boyfriend girlfriend who's affected by this you know a country of 10 million people as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin nyaho said numerous times you know this was you know the this MRE was the effect it's along the lines of you know 10 n1s just the scale and you know you can't even sit in Tel Aviv there's there's no place safe in Israel I mean you saw the intercepts right over your hotel room I mean many times you know you just go out on the balcony and watch the Iron Dome shooting down all these Rockets uh you know it's the war continues today here we are as you mentioned off the top you know we're almost a year into this and it doesn't seem like a Seas fire deal is coming together there still some Hang-Ups of course the bid Administration has officials in in Cairo trying to work on the fine details but it does appear that Hamas wants to stretch this out are you surprised by that I mean you know having covered it uh watching all the time are you surprised that Hamas and Iran and his Bala are dragging this thing out I'm not surprised Jonathan uh you know what Hamas wants is to start a regional War it appears that has been on hold we can talk get into details about that partly uh that's been averted thanks to the two aircraft carrier strike groups that are now on station in the Gulf of Oman USS Theodore Roosevelt and the Lincoln of course this means there's no aircraft carrier strike groups in the Pacific right now uh but it certainly has sent a message uh now does the B Administration uh have they sent the signal that and this is something I tried to get in the briefing room in the Pentagon a few weeks ago was if Iran were to launch another large scale attack on Israel similar to what we saw in April would the Biden Administration be willing to strike inside Iran never got a clear answer on that uh couldn't help but think after reading a Steve Cole's book about George HW Bush were the lines sent to samam Hussein not to get on a tangent here but we are talking about the Middle East was the Bush Administration clear with sdam if you invade Kuwait uh the US would would come to qu's defense and and put together this uh you know massive group of allies uh to start a war and that was on my mind few weeks ago at the Pentagon were clear messages being sent to ton that if you do this the US would be willing to strike inside Iran and and never got a clear answer on that very clear the message from the Pentagon was United States will come to Israel's defense uh not necessarily take strikes in ton right well let me actually ask you you know as I want to ask you Pentagon policy US policy I me what can you tell us about the policy as it relates to the attacks on our service members we know that they've sustained attacks in places like Syria and Iraq uh my colleague Brad Bowman from our Center on Military and political power has logged more than 170 attacks on our troops with apparently only 11 responses this seems like a bad ratio to me what does the Pentagon say about all this what's notable that the bulk of those 175 attacks happened this fall after the Massac OCC her and after the United States uh took out a senior U Irani impact militia leader in Iraq in early January those attacks actually tapered off um of course that's after the horrific drone strike in Jordan that killed three American soldiers uh but for there was a period for a few months where those attacks had you know had U had really dried up then of course you saw these attacks in in recent weeks on both al-assad Air Base largest base that has American troops inside Iraq where the bulk of the 2500 American troops are and in neighboring Syria there's about 900 troops at various bases from alamp up the Euphrates uh and the cono oil fields there's about 900 troops there they uh suffered a drone attack and um nobody was killed uh in the in the Syrian strike um but certainly there was some service members wounded a few had to be taken to land stool the most serious attack was the one at al-assad uh was told by a pentagon official that one soldier suffered a severed artery and almost died uh so these were this was very serious and of course if you had an American Soldier killed uh in Iraq uh you would think that would have brought a different response but that always seems to be the fine line with the with the Pentagon and that certainly goes back to the Trump Administration that's were any Americans killed that appears to be the red line well I want to ask you about a different red I want to talk about the houthis and that Greek vessel that could spur a massive environment enal crisis it's already spawned I mean all these hoopie attacks it's spawned a crisis in terms of Commerce right we've seen essentially the shutting down of of the Red Sea uh the babo mandab is is essentially unpassable right now so what can you tell us about that I know you've been covering that lately for Fox it's been a big issue right now you have a Greek oil tanker that is holding more oil three times more oil than the Exxon Valdes and our listeners remember that oil spill one of the largest in American amican history uh you now have this uh Greek oil tanker on fire houthi Rebels iran-backed uh Rebel Army inside uh Yemen of course boarded this this tanker and actually set it on fire and there a lot of videos I'm sure our listeners have seen them and and on social media uh the Pentagon is warning this is a potential environmental catastrophe those the exact words by Major General Pat Ryder at the briefing the other day and right now the problem Jonathan is nobody seems willing to do anything about it there are despite this Armada two carrier strike groups over 17 warships and the god of missile submarine Georgia uh in the Middle East or the Eastern Mediterranean right now there are no us warships in the Red Sea and officials tell me they've asked the Europeans who had there's a European lead command in the Red Sea to assist and while uh European warship French warship rescued the crew which by the way contained some Russian Sailors Philippine Sailors uh right now that vessel is at anchor but I'm also hearing a drift an oil slick has appeared uh on social media the latest satellite imagery from maxar it's a real problem because what are people doing about it there's a few tugs uh that put together but so far the houthi have been guarding the vessel they vowed to attack anybody who gets close to the ship but it's a big problem again there three times uh the size of Exxon Valdes in terms of how much oil is on that and really it's an indictment of the Biden administration because for uh weeks and months now we've been hearing from the Pentagon that they view their mission operation Prosperity Garden they they call it as a success but 90% of commercial vessels now avoid the Red Sea altogether they go around Africa much longer much more expensive trip to get to the United States get to the Mediterranean and that's a big problem you know 10% of the world's Global oil supply goes there certainly uh Christmas and Hanukkah presents uh for December are on board those ships it's it's a big problem and by all intent intents and purposes uh in the Wall Street Journal at a toyal page just spoke about this a few days ago it's been a failure yeah and I I also have to say it's an indictment I think of a lot of these environmental groups you'd think that they'd be just out there sounding the alarm I think it's been relatively quiet so far been kind of shocking to me uh given what is potentially on the line here that's a lot of damage that could occur in in in in an important Waterway you spoke earlier real quick Jonathan about Fox covering foreign policy it was notable that during the Democratic National Convention uh Fox we did report that I reported from the Pentagon about just days after really just right after uh that ship was attacked when really nobody was aware of the scope of it uh and we got on board with that pretty quickly but you're right the The Silence from environmental groups uh really you know from the administration it's come up at the state department briefing no question it's up at the Pentagon during the briefings but just in election season uh it it can be a challenge getting some of those stories on there yeah I think certainly things that might reflect negatively don't want to be covered but I the thing you know the the lack of coverage from the environmental groups the lack of alarm that's honestly the thing that surprises me I'm not surprised that that you know people might want to downplay a crisis when you're in the in the thick of uh you know of election season but um you know G given the importance that I think this Administration has put on on the environment and you know there there's a wide swath of Americans that always talk you know about prioritizing the environment and you just don't see that right now and and I think because it intersects with this sensitive issue of a war in the Middle East people don't want to weigh in and again uh Pentagon officials have told me the US military fifth fleet has requested the Europeans help with this matter and they don't want to do it at least thus far wow the crew they rescued the crew there's no question shot down a drone that was incoming but in terms of dealing with this potential environmental catastrophe without any American warships or other Assets in the Red Sea they're counting on the Europeans who are nearby on some warships and so far they've declined wow all right well last question for you here if you would just talk to us about your reporting in Ukraine we don't talk enough about that war on this program it's primarily geared toward the Middle East but I know you've spent uh some time over there uh what can you tell us well I arrived in Ukraine uh in early February weeks before the invasion and for a long time that was the big question would the Russians invade and of course tragically we know the outcome uh this war is over two years long it it seems like there's no end in sight just when the ukrainians launched this daring incursion into Russia uh securing about 400 square miles of territory uh you which the ukrainians are calling a buffer zone to help with potential negotiations uh you know most most stud of War would think that's that's a good position to be in to be able to negotiate um you know land for land get the Russians to pull out of uh Ukraine sadly that hasn't happened we've seen devastating strikes this week on three separate occasions you know as our listeners know you know in the old days it was the Soviet Union supplying weapons uh to its allies now it's in Reverse you know the North Koreans the Iranians are sending weapons to the Russians you have North Korea sending ballistic missiles uh the Shahed drones that the irans Iranians are sending the Russian they're using those in Ukraine and while the Chinese the B Administration says they're not supplying the weapons they're supplying the technology to help build uh many of these systems we've seen the Russian Glide bombs from its bombers and so far the bid Administration has been reluctant to allow Ukraine to use uh long-range missiles those attachs uh that have been sent to Ukraine to use uh for deep strikes into uh Ukraine and it's something the ukrainians in fact just today Ukraine's defense minister is meeting at the Pentagon with defense secretary Lloyd that's the ask the British are putting some pressure on the B Administration as well as long as as well as the ukrainians they want to see a green light to allow these long range uh Rockets used to destroy some of these Russian air bases where these bombers and and Fighters gets take off from I'd like to see that too all right we're gonna leave it there thank you Lucas thomsson for all the work that you do and thank you for joining us today on the FDD morning brief that went by too quickly it's great to join you Jonathan thanks for having me thanks all right here's what FDD has on tab for you today fdds Mark Montgomery and Brad Bowman have a terrific piece in the Wall Street Journal calling out certain figures in Washington who assert that Taiwan might not even benefit from us defense support in the event of a Chinese attack my colleagues underscore that threatening to abandon Taiwan is both misguided and dangerous American deterrence must not be publicly undermined it's not just domestic audiences watching our for foreign policies beijing's leaders are taking note too hot off the FDD press is a major report by my FDD colleagues or kitri Brad Bowman and bnam baliu they've spent the last few months developing a detailed plan and actionable recommendations on how to deter an Iranian dash for a nuclear bomb they outlin the specific steps Iran could take to advance their nuclear program and lay out detailed proposals for military and non-military options to prevent the regime from reaching its nuclear goals this is a must-read publication folks and it's crucial to implement these recommendations between now and when the next US president takes office and in case you aren't sick of me already I have a new piece in commentary with Superstar FDD intern Emily Bornstein we raised the question of whether this White House might learn from former president Ronald Reagan while Israel has largely succeeded in dismantling Hamas securing the return of all hostages remains a significant challenge a potential strategy for reaching a kind of deal could involve a different deal involving the expulsion of the last vestages of Hamas from Gaza although this carries some risk it may represent the most viable option all right that's it for me today read our expert analysis on our website fd.org read our quick takes on X at FDD and support our work with a tax deductible donation at fd.org envest the FDD morning brief is going to take Monday off for Labor Day but we will be back bright and early on Wednesday and if anything crazy happens we'll be back online before then have a good weekend folks I'm Jonathan shanzer signing off for FDD