Formula 1's unlikely title fight resumes with 10 races left to decide the outcome of at least one World Championship. Red Bull started 2024 in dominant form, and it looked like another straightforward pair of titles was on the cards for Max Verstappen and his team. But its faltering form has allowed high-flying McLaren to slash the gap, and Verstappen even fears that the worst-case scenario is losing both championships.
Even if that doesn't come to pass, there's a lot at stake over the second part of 2024. So let's look at 7 things that will decide this unexpected title battle. Recency bias is dangerous when establishing who has the fastest car in F1 because the evidence of the last few races would say McLaren. It has been quicker than Red Bull in 4 out of the last 6 dry qualifying sessions. Recent form is relevant because it sets out the trajectory that each team is on, but over the entirety of 2024, Red Bull has been stronger.
It's still 0.25% to the good on average in our Supertimes rankings, which compares the fastest lap times from every weekend and that equates to just over a couple of tenths a lap. And the last few races still include Red Bull demolishing McLaren in Austria qualifying, as that was a track that played perfectly to Red Bull's strengths in traction limited corners. So we know that the RB20 can still be a very fast car when it's not too compromised by the track layout in the handling and balance conflict between low and high speed and can be configured to fully exploit its aero.
We reckon the Red Bull still has the highest peak downforce and therefore the highest absolute potential. If you scrutinise the McLaren advantages over Red Bull in recent events, you see that it never really blows its rival away, and a couple of times beating Red Bull also hasn't been enough to start on pole because Mercedes has snuck in. Then there's the sheer resilience of the Verstappen Red Bull combination to consider when it comes to nailing qualify. as often the Red Bull gets ahead of McLaren after a laboured effort on setup and an 11th hour mega Verstappen lap.
The bottom line is that when Red Bull gets it right, it probably will qualify ahead with Verstappen, but McLaren's improved enough to be an outright threat a lot of the time and has a small but decisive advantage when Red Bull gets it wrong. Quick as the Red Bull is, getting it to work consistently is tricky, so while it has a high-performance ceiling, it's also got a lower basement level than the McLaren. There are theories for Red Bull's specific problems, including suggestions that it is the reason for a recent rules clarification to emphatically stop teams from producing asymmetric braking torques, or in other words, applying different forces under braking to the inside and outside wheel, which could be a massive help in getting these inherently understeery cars to rotate through a corner.
The obvious but premature conclusion, given this is all hearsay for now, is that if Red Bull was doing this and had to stop after the first few races, that could explain why the car's been giving Verstappen more grief as the season's gone on. and why Sergio Perez's form has nosedived. But there's nothing concrete on this or any evidence to suggest any team was actually doing anything.
It could just be a clarification of a loophole that's somehow come to light, perhaps because the 2026 rules are being discussed and this exact regulation has been written into the 2026 rules. Rivals have also declined to publicly or even privately suggest that Red Bull has been nerfed in some way. Usually, they would jump at the chance to encourage a narrative that an opponent has been found out, especially when it's Red Bull.
So the simplest explanation for now is that the Red Bull has always had a tendency to fall out of its optimum working window in this rules era. We've seen Red Bull have tougher weekends before. It's just now finally being punished for those off days, having previously been spared such glaring issues because of its car advantage. That has disappeared because rivals have finally been able to maximise these rules better, whereas Red Bull hits up against a ceiling and seems to have got itself into some development problems, which we'll cover next. While McLaren isn't always the absolute fastest car over one lap or a stint, it definitely has a more usable car than Red Bull does now.
In simple terms, now that McLaren has got more on top of its slow speed aero weakness, and it seems to have a pretty solid mechanical platform, its performance window between low and high speed is much wider than Red Bull's, so it's easier for the McLaren to be fast in different conditions and situations. That can be a big weapon in qualifying, depending on the circuit, but also in races. It makes it a more consistent threat on different tracks, helps its drivers be more confident and leaves it less vulnerable to big swings in performance in the same Grand Prix, as Red Bull has been at times when Verstappen suddenly found himself vulnerable on a different set of tyres like at Imola, the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone.
The off-track development battle has raged not just this year but stretching back to last year, and it's difficult to escape the conclusion that McLaren is stronger in this area. The centrepiece of McLaren's progress was the major package introduced for May's Miami Grand Prix. That was one race earlier than originally scheduled and Norris immediately claimed his first Grand Prix victory, with some major safety car assistance.
The package included a new floor that boosted downforce towards the front of the car and significantly improved its slow corner performance, the team's main weakness. Connected to this was a repackaging of the side pod allowing a more aggressive Coke bottle shape. It's fair to say Red Bull hasn't produced any single package that's given such a big benefit, and some rivals have even...
even suggested its upgrades have made the car worse. The biggest Red Bull change was in Hungary, where Verstappen ran with dramatically different rear bodywork that gave the car more downforce. Red Bull then switched back to the old version for low downforce spar. Like McLaren, Red Bull brought forward the introduction of that package that was originally intended for after the August break.
There will be further parts, but Helmut Marko has warned that there won't be any instant fixes to Red Bull's battle to find a good balance. McLaren also has upgrades planned, but there won't be any more great leaps forward. With both McLaren and Red Bull pushing up against the ceiling of performance under these regs, even small upgrades could make a big difference. And with 2025 fast approaching and the major rule changes for 26 looming on the horizon too, there are many competing demands for the resources. So if someone carries on working for longer, they could get an advantage this year, even if it risks compromising 2025. On recent form, the drivers represent the most one-sided comparison of the lot.
McLaren's pairing is miles ahead of Red Bull's in terms of pace and points return. Perez is the only reason McLaren has caught Red Bull as much as it has. It looked like he might have turned a corner qualifying on the front road for the first time since April in the last race before the summer break at Spa, but then he had a horrible Grand Prix, fell to 8th at the flag and last of the lead group of four teams. Over the past 8 Grand Prix, Perez is miles behind the other drivers in the top 14 for points scored and when looking at the Red Bull-McLaren battle specifically, it's horrifically one-sided. It's hard to see how this level of performance can be tolerated given it's putting Red Bull's Constructors Championship hopes in jeopardy, but pulling the trigger and replacing Perez is a huge decision and one Red Bull has decided not to take for now.
The problem is, if Red Bull keeps only having one car in the fight, or one and a half at best, it might do just enough to stumble over the line clinging onto the lead, with the odd Perez highlight just about being sufficient. That's the best outcome if Perez's performances don't improve. Obviously, what the other drivers do matters too.
Verstappen can be depended on to get 100% out of himself and the car more than Lando Norris can for McLaren, as Norris himself admits he's not done a good enough job recently. Oscar Piastri is blindingly quick and looking ever more robust in races, but still has the odd mistake in him because he's only in his second season. Here, we're talking about the difference between wins and podiums, or podiums and finishing 4th or 5th. Which could absolutely make a difference and is the reason why Verstappen's still overwhelmingly the favourite in the drivers'contest despite his insistence Norris is still a rival. But right now, it's not a deciding factor in the main battle, the Constructors'Championship, and of all the title fight factors outlined in this video, Perez may well be the most decisive single element.
The wider Red Bull and McLaren teams also have a crucial role to play in extracting the maximum performance for the rest of the year. Here, Red Bull has a clear advantage. It's a well-honed championship-winning operation, one that's amassed 120 wins across the past 16 seasons. It's been battle-hardened over the years, and everyone there knows exactly how to win. That's reflected in the fact that even in difficult circumstances, it has been able to stream together a good run of results.
On top of his seven Grand Prix wins this season, Verstappen's also taken all three sprint races so far and only failed to finish in the top six once, in Australia, where he retired with a brake problem. Generally, that reflects the fact that Red Bull doesn't drop the ball very often. Strategically, it has been razor sharp, although in Austria and Hungary, where Verstappen felt both pit stops came too late, there were some high-profile complaints from its star driver.
As for McLaren, while in what might be called steady-state race conditions, its strategies have been sound, the same cannot always be said for trickier circumstances. At the Canadian Grand Prix, the failure to give Norris a pit-if-the-safety-car-is-deployed instruction when it looked like a realistic possibility cost him the lead and probably the win. At Silverstone, the failure to double stack at the first round of pit stops cost Piastri a shot at victory, while the hesitation on tyre choice and final decision to put Norris on softs at the last stop was also a mistake.
And of course, there was the poor communication between Norris and his race engineer in Hungary that led to the drawn out will he comply or won't he with this team order saga and created a needless public drama. This is all about McLaren becoming more assured when it comes to strategic calls, and Red Bull can't rely on McLaren making mistakes. While McLaren is learning how to execute well at the front consistently again given it's won just three times in the past dozen years, it is learning fast.
And it's only a matter of time before its strategic thinking is right up there with Red Bull. It just might still need to pick up a few more battle scars before it gets to that level which could be decisive this year. F1 has 10 circuits left to visit in 2024, so how many are McLaren tracks and how many may favour Red Bull? It's a difficult question to answer with certainty given how close it has been in recent races. The introduction of upgrades could also skew the competitive picture.
But with those caveats, it is possible to divide the circuits up into those that should suit Red Bull, those McLaren will fancy its chances at and those that are too close to call. The Zandvoort-Monser doubleheader could be good news for Red Bull. Zandvoort is a high downforce track that puts a premium on low-speed aero performance rather than the mechanical platform and has been of a snap and stronghold the last three years, while Red Bull's immense aero efficiency should play well for it at Monza because it can run more downforce for a lower drag penalty than McLaren can. The next doubleheader in Singapore and Azerbaijan could then be better for McLaren. Bumpy Marina Bay is likely to be the worst track of the back end of the season for Red Bull and while it should be better on the streets of Baku, that could also be challenging.
These will also be a big test of whether Perez can get back to his stronger early season form. The Circuit of the Americas in Austin could go either way, while the following race in Mexico might be better suited to Red Bull given its high downforce and the Honda engine has always been strong at altitude. Brazil's another coin toss as McLaren was very fast there last year. and while Las Vegas might be tougher for Red Bull given it's another street track, the fact it's mainly on straights should allow it to be strong there too, so that one is too close to call. Qatar is prime McLaren territory with its range of medium and high-speed corners, while the season finale in Abu Dhabi is a track where both could be strong enough to win.
But that's purely based on track configurations and doesn't take into account other factors, such as the weather conditions, tyres and the swings of the development war. Mercedes, and perhaps even Ferrari, will also have a part to play in the Red Bull-McLaren battle. With three wins in the last four races, Mercedes has come on strong, particularly on higher speed circuits. It will potentially pose a threat at faster front-limited tracks like Austin and Qatar. Despite a better showing in Belgium before the summer break, Ferrari's not really been a proper threat at the front since May's Monaco Grand Prix, where Charles Leclerc dominated from pole.
It suffered from porpoising problems, but an upgrade is anticipated that it's hoped will solve this. And even if those problems continue, based on its Monaco form, it should be a threat at a slow, bumpy track like Singapore. Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari all won races in the first half of the season, and it would be a surprise if across the remaining 10, they didn't each at least manage to get one victory.
As Red Bull team boss Christian Horner points out, the advantage keeps moving around. This can impact the championship fight because if either McLaren or Red Bull struggle, then they could end up shuffled back badly enough even to be outside the top six. And there might even be days where Mercedes and perhaps even Ferrari simply get ahead on merit. Either way, it could make for more volatile points swings. It will put a premium on good execution.
Both Red Bull and McLaren need to take wins when they are available and ensure the damage is limited on the off days. And ultimately, the fact 4 cars could fight for wins is another reason 2024 has become surprisingly exciting.