Transcript for:
Understanding Market Dynamics and Strategies

e good morning folks how are you you would give me a audio check on Twitter I'd appreciate it audio sounds pretty good on my end so you should be okay right there's our opening price I don't have a whole lot of expectation this morning but I'll sit with youall I was going to defer a live stream until this afternoon but uh I have plans that I wasn't aware of according to my wife gentlemen you know how that works um to that prevent that from happening so I'll just hang out with yall this morning till about 10:30 and then we'll break again got a lot of feedback from yesterday's lesson appreciate that trading view is really lagging just being quiet the audio was fine I had a couple guys say that they couldn't hear me yesterday talking as well so I'm not sure that's on your end for it's a little too smooth for e es is a bit of a mess let take a quick look at Dow oops there's decoupling that's pretty it's pretty expected actually when there's no news due out that morning or this morning rather see how they go in different directions that makes it a lot harder for precision to be available to you because I mean you can't trade it this means that you're trading with lower probability I've done it before but if you're a new Trader new student it's not something you should be trying to do all three of the averages should be moving together if it's a trading asset that you're like for instance I'm I'm monitoring NASDAQ on the regular so if that's my asset class I want to trade as the indices for stock indices and the specific instrument being the NASDAQ I look for the S&P and the Dow to be moving in the same direction if I'm W to be long I want to see something that's supporting the idea for all three of them bullish I'm watching this little Gap right in here for for I like the idea that upper portion of that Gap not being treed to yes is making a a lower low let's take a quick look at that it's come out on a 15 this there's your s side I'm not going to label it because I'm I don't really care so much about this one and th is just a mess if it runs for the cell side it's just going to be one of those instances where the first percent of everybody Gap doesn't give you an entry and you remind yourself that it's decoupling it means there's the mixed Direction on all three averages Dow doing its own thing for journaling it reinforces the idea of being highly selective on the days that you want to enter or the sessions that you want to enter on you want all the things going for you in your trades instead of just looking for any old thing to get me into a trade that's a 20-year-old ict's uh version of trying to trade if it was oversold that was enough reason it's enough reason to get in there now I'm watching this uh volume AB balance now the question probably comes up in your mind is okay if you're noticing how the indices are doing different things one is he going One Direction other is doing the other direction what what does that mean for me as an analyst what does that mean for me as the trader what does that mean for Action where's the actionable ideas on that well you have a choice you can sit and wait for the indices during the morning session to either come together in terms of agreement where they start moving in tandem sometimes that happens in the same session sometimes it takes the morning session to sort all that out in over the lunch hours then the afternoon becomes a little bit better to trade or it can on the worst case scenario it can stay decoupled all day and make very problematic conditions for trading unless you're really really short term and you're just taking the life uh in you know the the things that would instigate you ticket and trade the smallest of things to do that which I'm not a fan of I don't teach that that anyone should do that the more things you have in your in your favor the better but these are actually better these are better teaching environments because nobody wants to talk about these these types of days they want to talk about when they made money or when it was easy for them and that's the easy part of learning and that's the easy part of being a teacher when it's easy everything looks like it's perfect but when you're met with the realities of what the Market's going to give you sometimes it's going to give you a curveball where you're not getting all the indices in agreement let's take quick look at Dow once more I would not want to trade that that's nothing there it's really it looks like chew bubblegum all right so we look at uh the es so far the only thing that makes sense even though it's not in agreement with any of the other two indices uh NASDAQ still looks okay and I'll go over what I mean by that um we' we've been weak we did not get a return back into first percent of fair value Gap that's fine we have bearish order block trades up into here notice the bodies inside this Gap the body stay rate at consequent encroachment or lower these are the damage inducing uh events where the Wicks are allowed to do that type of damage and let me roll back down rotation out of the volume IM balance even with the decoupling I'd like to still see that cell side deliver but then because it's mixed because it's mixed I would like to see some kind of return back into the range which is likely to see it come back under here that's a scenario see how see it straight down into cell side explore a little bit lower than that and then if it can make its way back up in here I would look for as long as the Dow stays basically unruly brat doing what it wants to do um and if the NASDAQ you shrugs off any weakness as well back up in here and going into uh the second half of the am session that would be something I would look for it doesn't mean it's exactly what I'm looking for I'm looking for a scenario after seeing the cide deliver like it just did here one of the the best things you can do is give yourself permission early on is to let TR pan out when it's highly unlikely for precision to be there so we can still see elements to the things I teach but these are the types of little things that'll probably mess you up because you could probably look at this and say okay I said he like this fair value cap so maybe some of you pushed the button if you did you you failed because even though it did it did deliver where we're looking for sell side it doesn't mean that you should have taken that trade because if you've listened even though it's done this it's not a high probability trade that means these are the types of setups or movements in price action that I'm comfortable sitting on the sideline and just watching them paint and tap read them watch them observe them go over them with my son if he's sit next to me or send screenshots to them and say hey look look at take look at this see what it did here not being a participant in it these types of scenarios happen all the time but the very very Choice setups for you to get in they're not as frequent as these are going to be and that's the problem with impatient Traders impatient um undisciplined without a model without a protocol or procedure that they follow or a high demand on quality setups where everything is an agreement let's take a quick look at the DAT once more see if it's changed anything I'm still working on one screen because I want to again emphasize the importance of look at that so it's going the another Direction and then es let's take a quick look at that no real expansion on the downside but it still has its cell side right there so I would venture to say let's take a couple things here them volume imbalance right here I'm just going to make it with a rectangle if you don't mind just just save some time so get that it has cide down here as well okay and back into en you can see rather anemic opening range Gap again and this happens that fa uh the first Fair Gap forms actually in that same area as well so we have taken celide on a mixed decoupled am session during the opening range we have a couple more minutes still for the first 30 minutes to to book now two scenarios on a on a morning like this where the averages are doing different things Dow's going up n sorry NASDAQ best performing on the downside and then you have the es that is moved a little bit but it hasn't quite made the same type of delivery for its sell side down here yet so it's being like I said it's snubbing any weakness as I was indicating earlier like I want to see if it fails to go lower if it does that it's going to run for the buy side here for ES and maybe explore the orders up in that area there not that it me to know how many orders there are that's where the the buy side was be these two lows I'm sorry these two highs with this one being lower than this one and then this High over here back it out a little bit and you see these are really clean little almost too perfect isn't it so if it fails to go below the cell side NASDAQ turns turns to come back up into its range that would be where my eye would go to for but it's conditional so notice I'm saying these things have to accompany other things it's not just simply me saying es is going there we still have to work out the uncertainty of this cell side being taken or not in agreement with the NASDAQ returning back up into its range uh that would indicate this could potentially become an inversion fair value Gap if that is what is likely to see unfold and that may support a run back up into maybe the first delivery to First of fair value Gap and back into the opening range gap which is kind of sharing the same real estate in terms of price range and I'll go back out to regular trading hours just for a moment to show you what I mean by that so we have the settlement price here yesterday I'm just going to use it with the lines if you don't mind and we'll this and then open open price today and then we can go back out to electronic trading hours so you can see there's two two frames of reference in here we have the first present the fair G that never got traded to yet despite being delivered to downside and sell side it did not get traded back into here after creating it so this candle never made it up there and no subsequent candle after that made its way up there so the the constellation prize was that we could see this Fair valap forming here and the bodies were laid down and buried right at the consequent encroachment that that separation between this candlestick's low that candlesticks High and the Wicks were permitted to do the damage so it's this is just simply returning back into these two consecutive up closed candles where because they're two consecutive up closed candles you use the opening price of the lowest that's this one right here that's that's your order Buck or change in a state of delivery where price was delivering by side that means it's moving higher and then it changes and goes lower so change in state of delivery is that opening price and you can see it going right there and it returns and trades lower just for good measure it turns right back to this candlestick's low as well look at the low of that 20,37 even and the high comes in 20,37 point2 which is a perfect delivery to this candlestick's low plus one tick per spread more quick look at the the Dow again being a brat doing what doing what it wants to do and Es okay let's extend this out a little bit more see we've already hit it there L the consequent encouragement of this Wick see I'll hit that right there and in a perfect world it would roll out of this and go down and attack its sell side liquidity see how it's very very difficult to frame any kind of stop loss and all this if you're trying to be short so that's one of the things that you have to you're just going to have to accept that there are going to be times where you're not being afforded a very lowrisk entry or an entry at all despite knowing where it might potentially still trade to and in the beginning you know as a student of price action especially learning from me um it's real easy to get caught up in the frenzy of trying to use something you just learned especially if you see our community members that are sharing their immediate you know success with something that they just watched me outline and teach for the first time or maybe amplify something that they thought they understood and now they're like okay now I have a new A New U Breath of Life and interest around something I used to like but I haven't been paying around playing around with it too much and then you see them doing something that makes them uh profitable or shows a uh a profitable Endeavor using it so that means you want to go out there you want try to do it right away too and you'll lose focus and not recognize the opportunities that are not being afforded to you because you're just wanting it to go to a draw on liquidity and that's not enough you have to know that that's this Market climate where there's a decoupling or the averages are doing opposite things they're not doing the same thing okay that was a neat little turn back up into the opening price there hammer it perfectly um there's nothing in here to frame an entry on so the only thing we're really watching and observing is does it have the ability to rotate out of this and attack the cell side which is the only thing that makes sense down here doesn't mean that it can't go higher it just means that if it does who cares you wouldn't have been short because there's nothing in here to frame it to for the risk there's no way to uh feel good about taking the trade because you have decoupling so I'm speaking to the folks that are trading es by the way because I have a lot of students saying you never talk about es why don't you like es I like the volatility and the price delivery in NQ because NQ is a little bit more exaggerated uh it's only 100 stocks versus 500 stocks that makes its Composite Index up so S&P is a little bit slower it's a little bit like um it's kind of like conac I'm not a drinker but it's like A conac and Es is kind of like uh Johnny Walker or Jack Daniels okay you want to get your ass tore up real quick you drink the cheap stuff and you can drink a lot more of it and it's fun it's fast it's an easy good time but if you don't you're doing it can wreck you es is a little bit more sophisticated it's a little bit more well-rounded okay and the uh the interest in volatility is my number one concern for trading because that's what I want as a Trader I need that movement and it's a lot easier to see that movement outlined in inq versus something like the the S&P here I I can see even though the muddied Waters of the decoupling this morning we still were able to faired out you know certain aspects of price but it's not enough to Warrant an entry because just because you got in a trade you know who cares if I would have got in here on that who cares if I would have you took profit down here or had a runner still that takes another par shop below that low and if it delivered who cares it would it would not mean anything to me as a as educator because I've already outlined it as it's a decoupled market it means it doesn't have the highest degree of probability and as an educator I'm trying to teach you to focus on those circumstances not just simply because oh there's a PD array and there's a liquidity pool so let's couple those together and just throw anything at the wall and see what sticks as a short and then you wonder why you're getting chopped up your account being ground down blown accounts failed combines failed funded accounts losing real money and then failure it's because you're forcing things in in conditions faster than you should in other words you're you're taking a leap of faith when it doesn't warrant that whereas if you had a lot of things going in your favor where all the indices all three were in agreement they were moving in the same direction we traded back to the first presented fair value Gap when then it showed displacement after that then then it's easy we could drop down to a 15-second chart and take the very next fair value G and trade you know in in that direction it need not be complicated but what does make it complicated is you wrestling with your emotions and your impatience because you just simply want to get in here and do something especially if you've never made money or a profitable trade even in demo yet using the material on teaching you're you're rushing to get to that one moment where it worked in your hands because you're telling yourself if it does this then I will be able to stick with it because it's it's hard to learn how to be disciplined it's hard not it's not hard to learn from me if anybody gives you really specific rules and a lot a lot of limitations to say it that way um it's going to be hard to learn under that I'm looking at this little Gap right here yes should be rolling over really ugly really really ugly but one of the things that I've appreciated as a educator in this year's mentorship lectures is the feedback in the comments I see all of your comments by the way um some of you are doing it very uh smart by taking and leaving little time stamps for things for your notes uh no one else sees them I can see them but you're you're using the comment section on the 2024 mentorship videos as a way of annotating it like it's your own personal Journal that's the that's the right way of using my comment section okay um but I see every comment every single one of them they're really long ones I generally skip over them because I don't have time to go through all that stuff and I'm sure they're very nice comments or whatever but I don't have time to read that kind of stuff so but usually the real short to the point thank you so much or um could you talk about this or I didn't understand that I use all those things to kind of go into the discussion points in my next lecture or if I come back around and talk about that topic again I'll pull from my notes any like bullet point things I want to kind of ring into the conversation the uh the feedback of you know knowing when to sit still because the folks that are being honest and saying that they have had uh difficulty initially and now they're becoming a little bit more responsible and they're admitting that their results that were adverse initially was due to their impatience and then trying to do something too fast before they understood what they were doing and also forcing my Concepts in conditions that I am as the author would never do it like I'm explaining today what it is that makes this morning a little bit more problematic it doesn't mean it's impossible it just means that it's going to be harder for you as a new trador new student to navigate it hey hush so let's take a quick look at down once more Scout's got always got a her name's Scout s c o u t not scalp like like Boy Scout like snipe uh scout sniper that's that's that's basically what I her after she's always got to show herself don't she hey hey little girl how it up you had your cameo for this morning and look at this price action compare that with what we just saw in the Dow and then now the NDA second shut her up e sorry about that all right so I'd like to see if it can come back up in to the range here it's it's done enough exploring for me if it wants to go back up in here I would like to see it come back and trade back into the opening range Gap would not want to short it would not be interested in chasing it lower S&P is shrugging off any willingness to want to go lower so look at the low here at 951 to present okay and then look at the NASDAQ lower in NASDAQ which is what we expected anyway we want we wanted to see the NASDAQ lead to the downside but the uh the S&P I mentioned earlier I said I'd like to see if it's going to show an unwillingness and kind of like shrug off any weakness we've we've seen that thus far so in other words the the S&P has not been wanting to go lower and you can already see how it's showing its willingness to want to go higher now and not go lower focus in here and over here and then the minor one it's here and then Dow still wanting to do what it wants to do the old brat all right and I think we're a little too far extended to want to come back into this I mean it can but I I wouldn't demand it and now this one right in here remember I was telling you earlier that could end up becoming an inversion fair value Gap if we were to trade back into the range after break now below to the cell side we've seen so far over here now cell side resides here that and what we want to see what I would rather see is um Dow continue doing what it's doing going higher or consolidate not drop let me go back into the Dow Dal either stays going higher or consolidates and allows es to hold its ground not break below this low we don't want to see that and notice this Wick that I was drawing on this consequent encroachment it's stopped it here traded back above it and then bodies consequent encroachment of this Wick and then the low of that Candlestick right there you see that and then this volume IM balance we traded through it and look what happened right here the body stopped on that high of the volume of balance and it stopped on the body right there at the open and started rallying and it went down into it but didn't breach it see that it's interesting isn't it back into this fair value Gap but the liquidity rests here so it doesn't make any sense for it to come all the way up here just to get to that it's already shown it's not wanting to go to its own cell sign which was down there so so far even though it's decoupled if you you're going to want to listen to this again even though it's not an exciting lecture it's teaching you visibility through this Chao uh decoupling between the three averages doing all different things I'm pulling out the things that are Salient what would be Catalyst for the market to see it back into its range the S&P would shake off any weakness that means it sets the stage for what smt Divergence which it was not willing to make lower lows here here when the NASDAQ was able to make lower lows and now we're trading up into this Gap here so we want to see does it want to trade it can accumulate in here and run right out of that that's that's one of the caveats to an inversion fair value Gap if a Market's extremely strong and you're expecting it to perform like like I've outlined here before before we even move back up into to I said once we hit sell side if the es fails to shrug off I'm sorry if if it fails and shrugs off weakness that means it fails to drop down which is what we've seen so far um then this could become an inversion fair value got and then we watched the NASDAQ create lower low but then the es failed to make a lower low at the same time that the NASDAQ did that lower low at the same time that the the Dow just keeps going higher so the way these indices could come back into agreement and become symmetrical is Dow stays Consolidated don't don't don't lose any ground don't go lower or keep going higher and then es fails to make a lower low and that's what we've seen so far NASDAQ makes the lower low and then comes back into its range and uses this as an inversion fair value Gap now the caveat is it can just leave this thing never come back down and touch it and use it as a discount array so that's why sometimes if I'm extremely if I'm really convicted on the idea that I think the Market's going to go higher in this instance I'd be taking the trade as it's hitting this candlestick's high right there we trading right at this point now because it's in consequent approach I'm just going to highlight the midpoint of it so that way it kind of like highlights the halfway point in instances where it's really bullish it affords me to get my first six contracts on and I may not get my four contracts if it comes back down and touches the high of the um the gap which is this candlestick's low so that's why many times if you look at my examples I'm entering inside of an inversion fair value gap before it actually proves itself to you as my students because I understand a little bit more what I'm looking for and I've also had instances where it just runs right out of the inversion fa Gap and I don't get either my fill or my second partial to build into a pyramided position so it's it's kind of like a knack thing um I don't have any rules that I could adequately explain to know when it just runs away from the inversion fair value Gap it just just happens it's kind of like the same thing we've seen here where I identified for you the first presented fair value Gap but it it didn't deliver to it as a short okay well because it dropped lower we watched this thing pretty pretty closely this morning we called out the the S&P um potentially shaking off any weakness and in that keep going higher so we have a decoupled market and we were able to still see certain aspects in what price is likely to do doesn't mean it's going to always do it I get it wrong a lot when it's decoupled don't don't think for a second I'm trying to sell you on the idea that I'm 100% in inaccurate when there's a decoupling between the three averages when I say it becomes complicated and complex for precision I mean it because there's a lot of things that would otherwise be in play that I could point out to and say look at this and look at that look at that we're seeing a lot less of that here there's enough of them obviously for you to scratch your head and say wow there really is something to this but it's not enough for me to feel convicted enough to get in there and press the button and enter with real money that that's kind of like what I'm trying to get at so just know that if you're feeling the impulse to want to send me a comment about can you teach us to know when it's never going to come back to the inversion faue got I don't have a way to articulate that that that's an that's a I don't know that's that's that's a limitation on me as a mentor I just don't know how to teach that it's there's a lot of things I have those types of things with that I'll never they're like taboo conversations where I'm never going to bring them up because to do so or use them in a trade idea and trade them execute on them and say this is my so and so um if I don't have a way of explaining it to my kids I'm certainly not going to have it to explain it to you so it's just one of those things I have in my back pocket that it's an experience thing it's something I've acquired over years of doing it and it's not something that's an advant it's it's not an advantage it's just a me it's a me thing to justify why I don't have to have a return back to that inversion fair value Gap because my compensation is I just go in when I know I'm bullish I'll just enter inside of the inversion fa value G as it touches the candle that enters it which is here we saw that there and I said or I'll just go in at the consequent encroachment and look at the bodies of the candles right there you see that and then we've already delivered here so this is right here more than most of the folks you see on live streamers that they're trying to capture something like that all live explain to you even in a little bit more difficult Market but the these are the kind of lectures that I wish someone was teaching when I was coming up in 1992 because that would have really helped me slow down and I would have not hurt myself as much as I did because I was in a rush to try to make money and quit my job and get out of you know poverty basically you I was living paycheck to paycheck with a part-time job and in school so it was it was a wreck let's take a quick look at the Dow once more okay and B do the buy side here it's probably random and then we would want to see it uh just for good measure I'd like to see it go up here and smoke those highs right there we could do that before uh 10:30 Phil I'd appreciate it it's a friendly request and then back to NASDAQ see how we just keep gaining ground and we never came back into what would be viewed as inversion fair value Gap um if you're extremely bullish and what you've already outlined or anticipate as an inversion fair value guy if you're bullish like if you're really really bullish why would would you wait for it to come away from it and then come back down that is a um in a lot of ways that is a slow to the dance party or last to the dance floor perspective um if if you're really want to get out there and Boogie and get down then get out there and get down so if I know I'm bullish once we enter this area in here I already have the conviction that I want to see it use it as a inversion fa value capap so why would I give up the opportunity to take an entry at a very low price inside that inversion fair value Gap like at the top of that Candlestick here or at the mean thres oops mean threshold the consequent encouragement which is the midpoint of this Gap and you can see the body's delivering on that basis right there and that to me is you know again a signature that I try to press upon us as my students to say look you know what's the chances of that happening where the bodies closed and open of the second candle occur right at the midpoint you these are things that I keep teaching you to look for and it's a farce for everyone to come out here and say that doesn't agree with an algorithmic price delivery mechanism or engine that delivers price they'll say it's buying and selling pressure and my question is is how on Earth how on Earth did the buyers and sellers agree to allow the candlesticks that are time based here and the time based Candlestick is your advantage these Reno things or whatever else kind of bars you want to call it range bars they are not going to give you the Insight that the algorithm is literally never going to be able to hide from you it's never ever ever going to be able to hide from you as long as you're utilizing the aspect of time first and that's what an open high low close or a Candlestick with open high low and close U function is in charting so if you're looking at Price through the lens of this mechanism you're never going to be lost it doesn't mean you're going to be right about everything you're looking for it just means that you're never going to not be able to see what the algorithm's doing but when they get in there and they intervene you also can see that too you can also see when that's occurring you cannot see that with rangeb barss you cannot see that with kinashi you can't see that with all this other non nonsense these things these gimmicks they're all designed I'm watching this little Gap right here I know it's hard to see because I got my water mark on it that little Gap there I don't want to paint over top of what I already have here because I'm watching does it want it to spike into this and then try to continue on or does it want to use this order block right here the U I'm waiting to see if it can get up in the first presented Fair got that's kind of like really what I'm want to see and I'm hoping it could do that before we close session but if it doesn't do it by 10:30 you know I'll leave you with my comments before I close the stream down but this is enough enough this is a profitable study so far because we're working in a problematic condition you're not going to hear a live streamer explain to you what's going on why the markets are decoupled you're not going to explain to you which which Market's going to behave a certain way which one's going to fail to make a lower low and which one is going to make a low and come back in range that's exactly what you watch me do today there's no way around that it's exactly what you watch me do I've explained it I gave you details um I tried to be very succinct about it today because I had a lot of fun yesterday in case you didn't notice but I wanted to be uh a little bit more um academic with you today and based on what we were watching this morning um it gave me a wonderful stage to do that because you got to know how to trade if you're going to navigate these types of markets like today if you don't know how to trade you're not going to know what I'm telling you you're not going to see it and and know that okay this is not something I want to be participating in and that's experience and most of these live streamers they don't have that kind of experience no knock against any of them really but they don't have it so we're back inside that order block I was mentioning right here still still could come right back down in and hit that inversion fa B Gap it's not it's not out of the realm of uh possibilities it still can do that because there's a little Gap in here but preferably I'd like to see that stay open if I could see that stay open that would fuel a run higher than the first Prive fair value Gap and a gap closure and then this even here but more so back to this buy side there that line and despite everything that's been outlined here I have absolutely zero interest in being in the marketplace and couple that with the visibility knowing what I'm looking for even though it's something I'm not willing to trade still being able to anticipate what is likely to happen in price on a one minute chart where it's supposed to be just noise remember Goldman Sachs Guys these alumni from Goldman Sachs they're going to tell you that there's no Rhyme or Reason Why the Market's going to go up no one can tell you no con man can tell you when it's going to move or how it's going to go up or where it's going to move to on these lower time frames but they're going to say only higher tank frames work price is doing the same thing on that higher time frame chart that it's dealing on a lower time frame it's not it's not a different price it's the same price it's behaving the same way whatever price is at the market at any given moment whether we're looking at a one minute chart a 30 second chart a onec chart a weekly chart it's still it's still the same price and these are Goldman Sachs boys that are telling that these are supposed to be the the elites they're not Elites they're not and you're seeing that there's literally no reason to believe these type of people that tell you they try to discourage you when you're trying to learn how to time the market correctly and there's a way of doing it I mean I've proven it I've have very very wealthy students now that came out and they proved that they have the receipts and whatnot and they're using the same logic you're learning right here and they're getting more detail at the same time you're learning it too in this 2024 mentorship you're getting to see it over live price action is exactly what I was doing with mentorship students and it's fascinating to see how some people don't see the value in it because this is exactly what I wanted but I knew it didn't exist when I first started in 1992 no one was willing to do this not one person was willing to do this and I guess in all fairness we I guess we really didn't have the technology at the time to do it I mean I guess the best thing it was is that we had message boards back then and we had chat rooms okay great and it wasn't like this where we can lit share the screen I could comment or they could comment over their charts live and build an idea around what it should behave around what it should be what should it do next and why should it do this and why should it not do the other things and you can't get that from a book okay you can't get that from people even if you go to like a workshop or a seminar most seminars are always generally held on weekends where it it protects the teacher from never having the accountability and the responsibility of proving it over life price action and I've never been a fan of that and there's a lot of well-known quote unquote Educators out there that did all these types of workshops you know these three-day workshops or two-day weekend work workshops where you have the built-in parachute protection of never being held to well tell me how that would be used or seen in price action live they don't have to do that because it's on a Saturday and a Sunday right or in a Friday evening where you have a nice dinner experience with them yeah screw that I don't have that I don't have interest in that because if you're not willing to get out here and explain it to me real time over price action you give me give me a little bit of time you don't have to do it you for a whole year you ain't got to do it for you know six months but give me a couple months at least how about a month sit down and explain the logic of what you're looking for in price action and here I have been doing it with you all and still I had students that said there was no value in it and that tells you that they're not willing to learn they wanted signals that's what they wanted they wanted to see signals generated and the first thing you have to learn is capital preservation knowing how you're going to lose money in what type of Market environment you're going to lose money and if you can't recognize that you're not going to recognize the increased difficulty in you applying the things that work in good markets because the complexity of having a market decoupled and you trying to be demanding of precision elements that may elude you not because my Concepts don't work it's just because you're literally trying to run in mud it doesn't work that way so you have to be a little bit more reserved and say okay I'm not trying to force a trade but I am going to watch price action and see if these things that are being outlined are helpful are they indicating anything in terms of prognostication did you see the uh the es let's go back to it real quick did you see the es shrug off its unwillingness or not want to go down to its lows here it showed an unwillingness to do that as we indicated this morning and it would run for the byy side here and it would run over here to that now only a fraud could tell you this beforehand okay I mean Union rules as as you know the the committee tells us every fraud has to you know tell you in advance exactly where the price is going to go on very complex days we have to do that because if we don't do that we can't be kept in the union protection okay sister Union rules is something we all have to do folks it's just the way it is I can't do anything about it but when we go back to the NQ make that in your documentary um we have the market making that lower low in in NASDAQ as I indicated would likely do after it took its initial sell side remember it was a little bit higher up here it went down below it and then I wanted to see it trade back into its range if es failed to make a lower low so what did I do I forecasted a smt Divergence before it happened I told you that we would see it return back into its range and come back up into the first presented fair value got and thank you so much Phil for being a gentleman today allowing it to happen before 10:30 and we're back inside the opening range as well so what I would like to see it do is just power on higher up and punish those that are short that have their stop loss sitting right there and if they're going to run that high then it's reasonable to anticipate that little Lego looking area price action I was mentioning earlier I got disoriented here I'm trying to remember where I saw a little tiny little segment of price action it was a little too boxy looking anyway the key takeaways today are simply this uh you're learning from somebody knows what they're talking about and I do a lot of things online to stir up a lot of Comm because it's my way of bringing traffic to my channel because I don't advertise or pay for advertisement I never do that I manipulate the viewers mindset so that way you're going to argue about defending me or not defending me or you're going to troll me and because you're talking about me you're going to bring people to my channel and they're going to watch me do things like this and then they're going to be stuck in a quagmire because they're going to either listen to your opinion that's biased because I gave you that opinion because I I manipulated that I put you in that situation to make you feel empowered so you can make videos about me and then the people that watch your videos and you get paid for that okay but I'm not paying you but you're going to send those viewers right to this Channel and they're going to watch me outline this stuff in advance and it's going to be a question in their mind either I'm time traveling I'm using delayed data if they're watching the stream later on and they're not here live but there's so many people here watching it live it's it's undeniable I'm on the lowest latency the lowest latency on live stream on YouTube that's why they don't let me have the closed captions because if any anyone wants a live stream and test it themselves you'll see that you cannot do close caption when you're using the lowest latency so if I'm going to be talking to you over a one minute chart or less than a one minute chart I'm going to use the lowest latency because I want you to see there is no delay okay I'm not using a delay chart I'm not I'm not defrauding you with fake delayed data and using Market replay I'm not doing those things folks I don't need that I don't need a handy cap like that so the main takeaway is this I know what my algorithm is going to do yes it's mine okay it's very it's very straightforward isn't it okay it's the time to put the aside it's mine it's got my fingerprints all over it mine okay when I talk to you I'm talking to you as it's coder okay as its author as its designer and engineer I am the man I am the man whether you want to believe it or not I don't give a I don't care if I'm not allowed to sit at the table I'm going to make more of me name don't you get it I hope you guess my name if I can sit here and tell you what the Market's going to do and what Market is going to do this and what Market's going to do that before it does it and then it behaves a certain way and it delivers and I tell you an inversion Val fair valap that was going to form here it may not come back down and touch it and you're looking for it to come back down and trade there I'm telling you I'm going to enter it right there as it touches the candlestick's high and if I don't get that price I'm going to get the consequent encroachment and then it runs away does it ever come back out there and touch that no I told you I wanted this Fair bag yet to stay open why because that would be a breakaway Gap it leaves this PD and if it's breaking away it's not going to come back down it could it could have done that and then now would say that would be an entry point right there but said I would prefer it to stay open and I told you I want to see it trade back up in the opening range gap which is these two blue lines here but more specifically I want to see a trade back to my first presented Fair valap that's what it's coded to do that's why it's there that's why it's designed to be there because it gives me an edge it gives me the advantage that none of you ever had none of you ever had that Advantage none of you ever had the ability to sit down and know exactly why it should do and why it should do certain things you've never heard another person ever ever sit here talk to you with the authority that I it's never happened and I'm doing it over live data so there's no joker that can come around and say oh well look at this and look at that look at everything I want you to look at all that stuff and come right here and watch me operate that's what I want I love placing you in the hot seat where you're forced to to have you have to admit it you have to admit it that you're not seeing anything in retail here you're watching someone that knows exactly what's going to happen period and now you're left with another testimony of that you have to arm wrestle with how I knew how to do this today how how on Earth could this possibly keep repeating every single day every single day and you're out here wanting to send money to these other people that are literally resetting their funded account challenges in front of you and they're making money off of you while failing in front of you not knowing where the Market's going to go but they have an opinion about everybody else and I'm literally laying this in your hands for free for free there's no future mentorship I have nothing dangling there's no carrot there's nothing here but just the simple truth I told you who I was from the beginning but you don't want to believe me how many times do I gota keep doing it how many times do you have to keep seeing me do these things before you recognize who I am think think folks how many times you have to see this it's delicious so there's a lot of things that you're going to be met with on days like this and you're going to expect to see certain things paning out if you don't recognize the decoupling and the decoupling again is the unwillingness for all three averages to move in the same direction okay and as soon soon as you see this this is what you want to write down in your notes too because I didn't mention this earlier as soon as you notice that there's the decoupling between the three averages where the Dow was going up initially um let me do this because I really want to be able to show it to you all right so um let's do this all right so here's the nasda chart and then we're going to put the Dow here I'll save this part and then I'm going to close it I know you want I know you want me to keep going going going like the Energizer button but i' I've done enough for today I want to take care of some personal matters trying to find Del Monti sliced carrots and I don't know why I can't find them every store I go to uh they don't have them and that's my preferred carrot but I'm not eating a raw carrot um for food storage I I prefer that one and I don't know why I can't find them if you know where I can get some I appreciate it but uh I'm on to hunt for Delonte carrots so here is the es here is um let's one thate chart on that the th yeah Okay so we've seen at 9:00 this morning the es it drops down at 9 o' in the morning here we have a little bit of movement lower and then the Dow says oh absolutely not I'm not interested it starts going higher at the same time the the S&P was going lower and at the same time we see the NASDAQ dropping down okay in all this mess here because listen because there is no symmetry meaning that the Dow was going One Direction S&P was going lower and NASDAQ was going lower that's fine how can I still read the the NASDAQ like I did because I had the the coupling that still existed directionally with the es I don't care so much about the Dow the Dow tells me I'm going to decoupled state that means I'm going to lose a lot of precision that means I'm going to lose a lot of uh resolution invisibility of reading price action in my NASDAQ and I'm definitely going to have a lot of resolution issues in the es it's it's going to cause like a fuzzy out of focus picture even though I can see it's likely to keep going down and I told you and listen you're gonna go back and listen to the stream and hear me say this I want to see es shrug off any willingness to go lower by shrugging off weakness that means a failing to go lower if it fails to go down take it cell side that's what I want to see I'm waiting to see see that that means if I'm expecting the nasda to go lower that's going to do what it's going to create an smt Divergence that means it's going to fail to make a lower low on ES when the NASDAQ does make a lower low and then the NASDAQ will go up back into its range and trade back to its first percent of pair value Gap tell me who called that tell me all you ICT mentorship guys out there that are trying to teach my stuff tell me that you can go out there and do this tell me because if you can do these types of things then you earned the right to teach my because you can't do these things you didn't author it you didn't code it you didn't design it and you didn't put it out there period simply that you don't know what the you're doing so stop selling my you don't have the right to do it okay and all you guys that have your channels up there with my they teaching it have you notice I'm taking those channels down yeah how about that you don't have the right to put my up on your channel period my videos are my lectur stop uploading my and putting them in your language because they're getting stripped down and don't cry to me about oh could you take the copyright Strike Back you I'm not taking it back you don't have my permission to do that I predicted with the logic explain to you in this live stream why why the smt diversions would occur in which one the es would fail to make a lower low it would shrug off weakness I knew that was going to happen this is what you're writing down in your notes when you see decoupling and generally you're going to see the Dow become that little brat that's its usefulness to me I don't care that if the Dow makes a a lower low and the S&P fails to make a lower low I don't see that as a Divergence that that that's not to me that's not smt because I know that the the 30 stocks that make up the Dow are not that impactful overall but they will normally Bend to the will of both the averages when es and NASDAQ are going lower it goes without reason it goes without saying that um all boats rise in high tide and they all go low um they drop in low tide okay that that's that's the analogy here so when it's really really moving the Dow should be moving in sympathy with the es and NASDAQ but if in the morning session we open up and it starts doing like it did this morning that means I already know that I'm going to have visibility issues with the Precision so then I have to go back to okay that means it we decoupled so at some point later on in the session there's going to be a smt Divergence and they're going to go back in sync the Dallas is simply telling me no we're not going down there right now so I'm going to be looking for what I'm going to be looking for the S&P because this one's going to be fuzzy compared to the obvious imbalances and stuff that we saw over here that I annotated and you can see the price is reacting off of we're seeing a lot of overlapping in here let me let me magnify this one again we're seeing a lot of the uh give and take back and forth delivery of price here every Candlestick the range keeps overlapping with the previous one there's a lot of revisiting of the same prices so this this is like fuzzy type of price action compared to see how much more nice and refined every little range we were able to see the the the bearish fa value Gap here the change in the state of liquidity bang hits it the body stayed inside the volume imbalance here we have a volume imbalance here the body starts in there leaves it doesn't come back up into it that's weakness drops down I told you this is going to be an inversion fa Val Gap but I also said it may not even come back down and touch it and I told you how to use that inversion Fair B Gap as an entry how I would use it and how I would use it to make sure I get into the tree because I may not get that what which didn't come to return and repic back down into it and I told you I want to see that fair value Gap stay open that would be a Breakaway G and it would take us right back up into what is this oh look at the bodies here respecting the firstent value G that's completely random isn't it no it's coded to do that hello and you think it's buying and selling pressure it's believe that's unbelievable it's literally unbelievable the volume in Balance I annotated over here because this is all part of what what is this what is this right here Market maker buy model does the market maker buy model have to come back up and clear out the original consolidation no no it doesn't it does not have to do that but you have to know where it's going to draw to and you were told that so the volume bounce here it trades above it comes back down a little tiny little bit outside of it comes right to the top of it and then sends it right into the promised land the first present of fair value G that's always been in your charts but You' never noticed it why because woff didn't teach that because Elliot wave never even heard of it pitchforks don't even get me started I stuck a pitchfork in the Market's ass today right in front of all you it literally was laid out in front of you perfectly in a hard Market environment where everybody else out there is going to be scratching her head saying wow you know I'm trying to trade es is a mess oh wow I'm trying to trade Dow what the hell's going on here this is thing this is going all over place it's the mess it's a mess and maybe you were in the NASDAQ maybe you were maybe you were trying to trade short on this first Gap and you're scratching your head thinking oh they changed the algorithm does it sound like I changed a thing today no nope didn't change anything everything's the same way it's going to be the same way until these markets no longer exist and you're not allowed to trade in them you're going to see these things in effect period this is the way it is you don't have to believe me it's actually better if you don't this is means there's an supply of liquidity because that means you're going to be on the other side of my trades you're gonna be on the other side of my students trades either you're you're in the Train the train of thought that I'm teaching and you're not being cannibalized then you're not going to fall victim to this stuffff you're not going to be tricked and deceived by Price action and thinking about the market runs off of bull flags and bare flags and cup and handle patterns and that's horseshit all that stuff is nonsense it's literally nonsense and the sooner you come to the realization that these markets are rigged and they're to the tick rigged and it's time based delivery the sooner you're going to be to where you're trying to be which is consistently finding setups that yield profitability but that's a huge leap from your first Endeavor of trying to learn how to do this whether it be with me or someone else to getting to that point because you have all these things in your head that you're rushing to try to get done I want to be profitable right now you can't be profitable right now you have to learn how to fix yourself and in a day like today this is a complex day for someone that doesn't how to trade it's very difficult and I have no shame in saying that it's a more difficult day obviously you can see what I'm talking about is is happening in the chart as it happened real time in one minute basis so it's not that I don't know what I'm doing but I'm agreeing with you if you feel that the adversities in environments like this because it makes you feel like you're you're somehow ill equipped mentally or you don't have the capacity to learn how to do it because the the market feels like it's always beating you down it's just you're trying to force something in an economic climate that we're in front of an election that's historic there's a whole lot of corruption everywhere the markets are absolutely rigged and they're doing a lot of things right now in the last three years that they've never done before they've never done these types of wow whipsaw but then get right back in the sink again there's a whole lot of hand involvement in this okay and if you've had a lot of difficulty in the last year or so or you made lots of money but you just barely made some money it it's not technically your fault it's not technically your fault and if you can just accept the fact that you can learn this given enough time as long as you don't force it too fast if you're not trying to be correct about everything you stand a better chance than you probably given yourself the the the scheduled destination goal that you've created for yourself because you have a time that you want to be profitable and you can't do that because as soon as you set a date that you this is the day I'm going to quit my job because I did that stuff I did that I out of so many deadline dates that I was going to quit my job and I had to keep pushing that date further in the future because I was setting a date that I was going to quit my job and when it came to I don't care about that I need to learn how to do this and know that I'm comfortable knowing what's going to happen in the marketplace and then I can if I could see it if I could create these advantages that are going to be outside the scope and reach of everyone else then then it's a lock I'll know it when I know it and that's the same thing for you it's the same thing with when you want to trade with real money when do you when do you migrate from a demo account to live trading with real money I don't know that for you but you're going to know it when you can sit out in front of a chart not in front of me like or anyone else like I'm doing here you that's not necessity but when you sit in front of the charts and can see what it's going to do and you're not swayed you're not you're not feeling impulsive that I have to get in this trade because I feel like I'm going to be right and I need that scratched itch I need to feel good about something when you're when you're no longer replacing something that you're feeling in your job your personal life your relationship that void of discomfort or unpleasantness or lack of Happiness if you're not looking for your trades to to reward or fill in that place in your life and you're con consistently able to see what price is going to do when you're not being SED from outward influences me anyone else online um anything but you can still see what price is going to do and you know how to enter it and where your stock would be and you have no emotional stimuli around the outcome of it that is the shest way to know that you're ready for trading with real money because if you trade any time prior to that I promise you you you started too soon and you're probably going to blow your account or you're going to have a whole lot of draw down and then you're going to create scar tissue and it makes it so much harder to do it with real money I made those mistakes in 1992 I started literally a month after reading a book that book was not even good and I blew out half my account in the first trade it was an option trade in Orange ju and a lot of you know the story but that created such a fear and I'm teaching you in this mentorship the same way I'm teaching my son is to sit out here and engage price action with no monetary link to it none whatsoever none he tried it again he failed his TOP Step he got it he passed it but he lost it because he's trying to do before he should simply learn how to do it all he's doing is confirming how I'm teaching is the correct way in this mentorship the making money part that's the easy part but that you have to arrive at the right mindset and if you force trying to be profitable before you're even equipped mentally to be able to do it you got to be able to say no a lot more than saying yes to a trade and you'll never hear a teacher or author of a book say that there has to be more instances where you'll say as an analyst and Trader no I'm not interested even though you can sit there and say it's going to go here it's not it's most likely not going to go here but it's going to go here but no I'm not entering that trade see to a new student or to a jack leg online that sounds asinine that sounds counterintuitive it's like who would who would do that that's someone that's unprofitable talking like that but someone that says no frequently and says yes to high probability conditions and setups that's a person that's going to have a long long career it's going to have longevity it's going to be consistently profitable they're going to have losing trades but their losing trades are not going to cause them to Tail Spin and go into Full Tilt and blow their account that's that's the characteristics that that make a stark contrast between someone that simply says I'm a Trader I've made money look at this but they're only showing you those instances where it's worked they're not showing you that they've never had any profitability the rest of the time that week they're only showing you those little sing those single hits here it is here it is here it is and they're hiding and you know avoiding all that stuff you you know who they are they're people that show screenshots after a fact they don't even have a sop boss in there come on we're past all that now we're past all that I'm so happy to be a mentor that has encouraged other people to record their trades with a stop loss and managing it and if you can tell who's learned from me it's like a badge of honor for me to to see people on the internet and they're recording their trades I don't they don't need to have anything annotated on their chart I already know they're my student I already know how they're entering how the fact that they're even recording it and the things that they're pointing to as where it's going to go to next it's a dead giveaway it's a dead giveaway and I'm so glad that it's my students that bring that you don't see all these other people in these School of thoughts doing that it's an ICT characteristic it's a thing that's rubbed off it's in your it's in your DNA daddy gave that to you okay well we can walk out there and prove that we can manage the trade from beginning to end with a stop loss over and over and over and over and over and over every single day it's going to be there every single week it's going to be there but in the beginning they're not all for you they're all learning opportunities they're all for your edification and your learning but in the future you're going to see that there's going to be a whole lot less trades that you're going to be taking so you think that I'm taking thousands of trades in a month I'm not I'm not doing that I'm looking for the ones that are just the easy slow ride in with no adversities it's low resistance liquidity runs I don't have any static no friction it's just a slide on and there it is thank you that's what you want as a Trader but I had no one defined that for me when I was first starting in 1992 like I didn't have that I had Larry Williams telling me to watch accumulation distribution Williams for are overbought oversold and look for you know swing highs and swing lows that was that was it and open just declining when we're in a consolidation so if there's a premium between the nearby contract and the next month out then it's probably going to be a commercial bu market and I was spending my time looking for that stuff and all that stuff works if you're working on a daily chart but I don't trade on a daily chart I trade intr day charts because I want to be in there using velocity if I go in there and take a trade on that is meant to hold for three months six months how much can I really get out of that move like I I can't really I can't really do much more than what it's offering because at some point you can over leverage to the point where you can't afford to trade any more contracts and I'm not a fan of new Equity Building in pyramided positions in that too I hurt myself doing that in the 90s so here in lower time frames I can roll an account over and over and over again with multiple setups and the velocity using new setups with new gearing using the new Equity at a new trade entry that velocity can parlay the account up faster when these other people out there are holding on these hodlers these hold on for dear life people that doesn't make any damn sense to me okay because if you know how to trade you can go into any given time frame and Roll and Roll and Roll and continuously build up build up build up with new positions and as you make new Equity you're never risking any more than your fixed uh percentage of risk so if you have adopted a 1% risk model that means every trade you take doesn't go over 1% as you make more Equity you can afford to control more contracts or Lots if you're trading with Forex so the risk is never increasing percentage wise but because your Equity is increasing and your ability to to allow velocity in the acceleration of the equity growth that's why intraday trading and that's why high frequency trading is the mechanism of these entities that's what they do they don't go out there and buy and hold for a long periods of time that's not what they do they work inside these fluctuations like this that's what a high frequency trading algorithm does it's buying and selling all day long but it's using a lot of the things that I'm showing you here and they repeat over and over and over again and I would love to talk to you two more but I gave you another what's that 22 minutes more than should have but uh it's extra and I didn't have to charge you for it so I'm going to close this one here I've had a lot of fun sitting down with you today I hope you learned something I hope it was able to uh guide you through this morning hope you didn't hurt yourself and came away with some more insights if you like what you learned today I appreciate it give it a thumbs up it doesn't cost you anything doesn't make me make any more money or make any less money but uh if you like these kind of lectures it's it's a way for you to sound off and say you know I'm paying attention I C I heard what you said today I watched it unfold today and I was a witness to it so until I talk to you next time I don't know if it'll be tomorrow morning let me just say that right now I don't know if I'm going to be doing an afternoon session or if it's an AM session so so grant me a little bit of flexibility I'll let you know um early on tomorrow probably like 7:30 or so if I'm going to be live streaming the morning session or the afternoon I have to I have to determine what my personal schedule is going to be like tomorrow because there something I have to get done and if I can get it done today I'll be able to trade tomorrow or live stream in front of you rather and then if I can't get it done today then I'm going to be doing that tomorrow morning that would prevent me from being live streaming uh the morning session I would then defer it to the afternoon so we'll have to play it by year so just afford me that uh that that much latitude here so until I talk to you then Lord willing be safe