Transcript for:
Denver Real Estate Market Insights

higher inventory with steady prices what is the story in the Denver Market with half the year left to go hey everybody it's Allison wall with live South Denver your real estate strategist and realtor for the South Denver area this Denver Market continues to keep us on our toes let's dive right into the data Denver saw 3,900 homes go under contract in June which is just 100 fewer homes go under contract than the month before that puts us down about 2% month over month and year-over-year we're really only Off the Mark about 1% June brought in 3600 closings this was 500 fewer than the month before now the previous month we had seen closings go up by 500 so in an 8we span we have seen closings swing by 1,000 the market is certainly Dynamic if anything right now month over month we are down 14% in closings year-over-year we're down 12 % right now 5,300 new listings hit the market last month that is a thousand fewer than we saw from the previous month so month over month we're off the mark by 19% but Year over-ear we're up 5% for new listings inventory moved quite a bit this month we were just shy of 2.2 months of inventory last month we have now moved our way up to 2.7 months of inventory this month on top of that my most recent weekly data where we're looking week over week over week tells us that as we came out of the holiday at 4th of July we currently have the most inventory in the Denver Market that we have had since 2014 average days on Market is ticking upward we went average days on Market up by 2 to 28 median days on Market went up 4 to 13 and stay tuned to the end of the video I have a new graphic full of all sorts of data nuances and tid bits that if you're a data nerd like me you may really enjoy it's going to be a graphic that just kind of sits on the screen for you to look at at the end pulls out days on Market average sales price for different suburbs around the South Denver area so something you may really appreciate to see all right our favorite part on to the July home prices average Clos price for all homes for July we are at $714,000 an increase of $5,000 on average over the last month we weren't really sure what direction we would go in because if you will recall if you watched last month's market update we had these large drops in our average prices and drops in median as well so the average price drop in May for all homes sold was $112,000 we've had a $5,000 recovery in the average price for all homes sold and when we look year-over-year we are still up we are up 1 and 1.5% for year-over-year data as well the single family home price average is up to $1,000 to $793,000 I don't really consider that much movement though because we were down last month $220,000 the good news for sellers we styed the bleed we held steady we kind of stopped that downward trajectory and when we compare where we are now over this time last year we're also really holding steady prices last year they only had a leg up on us by $2,000 the condo and town home average price is coming in at $467,000 an increase of $7,000 from the month before congratulations to the attached homes because in may they lost $88,000 in average value and coming into June they gained $7,000 of that back the downside for them however is that compared to this time last year condos and town homes are still off the mark by about 2 and 1/2% in value all right over to median home prices the median home price for all homes sold in our metro area is $600,000 this is a $5,000 increase from the month before and compared to this time last year we're also up $5,000 percentage wise this is giving us about a 1% month over month and year-over-year Improvement in medium home price for every home that's been sold in the metro area the median price for single family homes is coming in at $659,000 up $9,000 from the month before so this is almost a full rebound because the previous month there was about a $110,000 drop in value so again congratulations there to the single family home median prices getting a nearly full rebound when it comes to percent change on the single family home front year-over-year and month over month we aren't even at a 1% change medium price for the condos in town homes is $48,000 they only saw a $1,000 change from the previous month that did not really cover the $8,000 downward swing from last month's market update though and year-over-year attached products are down 25% as well last we always like to see where our list price to sales price ratio is coming in what shifts are happening there a small change we dropped 1 half of a percent from 98.6 to 98.1 all right now that we have the data out of the way what are the takeaways what does this mean for you as buyers as sellers well let's look at where we are kind of year to date we have six full months of data behind us in the market we've got six months yet to go what does it really look like here in our Denver Market first off we have had had 4,000 more homes come to Market in this first 6 months of 2024 than we did in the first half of 2023 in that same time we have seen 700 fewer homes sell so we have a differential of nearly 5,000 homes sitting in the market here in 2024 so at first glance or when you hear that you're thinking well home prices should be sinking I should have so much wiggle room as a buyer or Mr and Mrs seller you should be slashing prices but that's not what's happening yes there are deals to be made and yes sellers are needing to be more aggressive entering the market place but every time I go through this data with you month over month each time we have a market update we are not seeing large percentage shifts year-over-year where we are losing value in our market so these are disconnected we've got several reasons we could spend so much time talking about all of them we've got an entire Supply issue with Builders not building enough homes and so many new families that have been created that could use a home so many buyers that want to buy that are not able to buy but we have a lack of Supply issue nationally that's an entire column unto itself we have a supply demand issue currently in our Market then we have the rate issue with a low demand side of things so there's so much going on in the market but we put all of these pieces together and we look at the fact that we have had and we really still do have low Supply in our Marketplace even though we have more homes I'm telling you right now that we have just over 2 and a half months Supply in the Denver market and it's the most we've had in about 10 years so Denver's been living in this dep depressed state of supply for so long which has caused us to get used to this frenzy pace of things and we feel almost like we're blessed to have this much inventory but right now because of where rates have been we have depressed demand and we have buyers who are just hoping to wait the challenge is if we get back to rates that feel mentally comfortable we're going to see demand push and as soon as demand pushes we've got sellers ready to just offload homes we really do so then we may end up back in this conundrum of buyers ready to suck up anything and everything as soon is they've got a rate that they are mentally comfortable with what is that 5 and a half 5 and 3/4 6 and an e we don't know but if sellers are funneling stuff into the market as soon as buyers are taking it prices are going to go like this so that is one major component of our Market that we are dealing with that is keeping prices higher than everyone's thinking they should be I mean we have 5,000 extra homes in the market just in this first half of the year if we drill down a little tighter let's just look at June 2/3 of all the homes that came on the market were priced below $700,000 now at first you're like oh my gosh that's amazing I would love to get a home under $700,000 yay for all that inventory 66% of all the homes are in this amazing price range sure except that the majority of the clients at least that I am working with are people that want a home that's probably between 750 and 950 but the time we're looking at a home that is say four bedrooms three with an office and Loft hopefully a finished basement but generally you're talking four bedrooms plus some additional space because a lot of people work from home or one person does we have this specific want for a school district we want a decent sized backyard there are other parameters in there might be a third garage Bay it might be open space it might be you name it a view of the mountains out some window to the house it might be a certain commute distance whatever it is it quickly pushes us into a 750 plus range just being a move and ready home whatever that is so we have 2third of the market that's pushed out not an option then another 14% of what is left is priced over a million so now we have about one out of every five homes coming to Market being in this bubble of 700 to a million $999 that's it and if you're dabbling in the market I'm definitely looking you know not all of those are goodlook houses so that funnel quickly goes like this and all of a sudden there's competition down here at the bottom so what feels like there's so many homes on the market all of a sudden there really aren't that many good homes on the market and that is why this has been a tale of two markets that is why it oddly seems like we have this Market with so much inventory and yet we have a place where there are sometimes multiple offers or houses are flying off the shelves and you can't wrap your head around it as I record this we're in July our data always comes a little late we just had July 4th that is a Tipping Point in our Market where things do tend to slow down quite a bit we had 25% fewer showings the sellers had been advised by some pretty experienced agents so we had correlating less new listings hit the market 23 to 25% fewer new listings also hit the market around 4th of July there's plenty of summertime left but because school starts here the first week of August we are going to see fewer transactions happening in these next few weeks for anyone that is oriented around school what we often find is that come right around Labor Day between Labor Day and Halloween we get a little activity a little surge everyone's settled in for some reason I don't know why school's already in that last holiday we get a little bump typically and if rates are going to make their move downward as we're starting to hear because the unemployment data came in favorable to the market not favorable for those who are looking for jobs we may actually see a nice pop in the fall let's hope sellers if you can hold out until next year when we get our spring uptick that is flat forward my advice I have clients calling me now talking about listing and I have asked them if they can wait we always see a spring uptick and if rates are going to take that downward Trend next spring would be ideal for listing if you cannot price yourself ahead of the downward curve do not look at listings that just closed and use that as your benchmark price downward ahead of them because our Market is going to continue downward based on all historical Trends toward the end of the year beat them don't chase them don't chase the downward Trend be ahead of it so that your home sells quickly having one showing a week or one showing every couple of weeks is not enjoyable selling a home quickly is satisfactory it feels good having to clean up every couple days every day at the last minute with a showing that's only an hour away is stressful the shorter the time you can be on Market the happier you're going to be I know we all want the most we can get out of our house but if you are chasing the downward pace of pricing you actually end up with less buyers I have said this before I'm going to keep saying it do not ignore the properties that have been on Market a while what has happened is they may be having to chase on that downward Trend they are ready to have an offer they are ready to talk and interact their house is not a bad house in every situation go after good-looking languishing properties here is that graphic that I wanted to share with you please take a look this Market is changing every few weeks if you have questions you'd like to connect on the market want to talk about your move your sale here in the Denver area please reach out you know I absolutely would love to connect and I will see yall next week