Lessons from an Incidence of Breaking into My Own House

Context and Incident

Story: The speaker recounts an incident where they broke into their own house.
- Midnight in Montreal winter (-40 degrees, both Celsius and Fahrenheit).
- Keys left on the dining room table.
- Tried all other doors/windows; decided to break into the basement window.
- Used cardboard to cover the broken window, planned to call contractor in the morning.
- Had an early flight to Europe the next day.

Cortisol Release: Stress hormone that raises heart rate, modulates adrenaline, and clouds thinking.
Morning Stress:
- Speaker woke up worrying about the broken window and upcoming Europe trip.
- Cloudy thinking due to cortisol led to forgetting passport at home.
- Rushed back to get passport, missed original seat on the plane – ended up in an uncomfortable seat for an 8-hour flight.

Origin: Shared by Nobel laureate Danny Kahneman, concept developed by psychologist Gary Klein.
Definition: Looking ahead to anticipate what could go wrong and planning to prevent or mitigate those issues.
Application to Life:
- Home Organization: Designate specific places for easily lost items (keys, passport, reading glasses).
- Travel Tips: Take pictures of important documents and store them in the cloud.

Number Needed to Treat (NNT): A crucial statistic representing the number of people who need a treatment for one to benefit.
- Example: Statins (widely prescribed cholesterol-lowering drugs).
  - NNT: 300 people need to take the drug for one person to benefit.
  - Side effects in 5% (15 out of 300).
- Conclusion: Patients are 15 times more likely to suffer side effects than benefit from the drug.
- Importance: Highlighting the need for informed consent and thorough doctor-patient discussions about benefits and risks.
Surgical Example: Prostate removal surgery for men over 50.
- NNT: 49 surgeries for one person to benefit.
- Side effects: 50% of patients suffer significant side effects.

Evolutionary Reasoning: Stress diverts bodily resources away from non-critical functions (digestive system, immune system) to focus on immediate survival, impairing rational thinking.

Learning from Experience:
- Installed a combination lock for house entry to prevent future lockouts.
- Recognized the importance of preemptive organization, even if gradually achieved.
- Encouraged the audience to adopt such preventive measures to minimize and manage potential future failures due to human flaws.

Gradual Process: Organization and preventive measures are incremental and worth the effort for long-term benefits.
Final Thoughts: Understanding one's cognitive limitations under stress and planning accordingly can greatly enhance life management and reduce crises.