The Most Important Century in Human History

Introduction

• Debate on the most important century in human history.
  • Examples:
    • Alexander the Great’s campaigns (300s BCE)
    • Emergence of Islam (7th century)
    • Industrial Revolution (1700s)
• Key theme: Centuries of great change that shifted humanity's trajectory.

The 21st Century

• Current century could be the most important.
• Characteristics of the 21st Century:
  • Rapid technological growth.
  • Acceleration of life due to phones and computers.
  • Development of transformative technologies like AI.

Existential Risks

• Technologies contribute to unprecedented existential risks:
  • Definition: Risk of species extinction or disasters limiting growth.
  • Atomic bomb increased existential risk.
• Estimates of existential collapse risk this century:
  • Nuclear winter and climate change: ~0.1%
  • Pandemic: ~3%
• Potential rise of new technologies adding to these risks.

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

• Current AI vs AGI:
  • Current AI: Narrow tasks (e.g., chess, face recognition).
  • AGI: Can perform any task, potentially outpacing humans.
• Predictions about the emergence of AGI this century.
• Possible scenarios for AGI:
  • Help humanity achieve goals.
  • View humans as inconsequential.
  • Consider humans as obstacles.

Ethical Considerations

• Importance of aligning AGI values with human values.
• Challenges:
  • Philosophical and engineering complexities.
  • Potential for AGI to lock humanity into rigid ideologies.
• Historical perspective:
  • Enlightened civilizations often fall short of moral standards of future generations.
  • Risk of value lock-in distorting moral growth.

Conclusion

• Uncertainty around AGI and existential risks.
• Importance of decisions made in the current century for humanity's future.
• Call to action:
  • Live as if the future depends on us—because it might.