Lecture Notes: Understanding the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

Introduction

• Title: Will Russia go to war with Ukraine?
• Current sentiment in Ukraine: 71% believe they are at war with Russia.
• Complex crisis rooted in historical context.

Historical Background

• 9th Century: Emergence of Kievan Rus.
  • Capital: Kiev.
  • Key figures: Grand Prince Volodimir (Vladimir).
• 1900s: Ukraine and Russia as Soviet republics.
  • Russia: Most powerful, Ukraine: Second most powerful.
  • Important for defense industries, agriculture, nuclear arsenal during Cold War.
• Post-Soviet Era (1991): Ukraine gains independence.
  • Inherited part of Soviet nuclear arsenal, later gave it up in exchange for security guarantees from Russia (Budapest Memorandum).

Key Events Leading to Conflict

• November 2013: President Viktor Yanukovich's rejection of EU trade deal.
  • Chose $15 billion bailout from Russia.
  • Protests known as Euro Medan emerge in response.
• February 2014: Yanukovich ousted, flees to Russia.
  • Division within Ukraine: Eastern part supportive of Yanukovich.
  • Russia responds by annexing Crimea.

Crimea and Its Significance

• Historical Context:
  • Crimea transferred to Ukraine in 1954 by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
  • 2014: Russian military occupation begins following Yanukovich's ouster.
• Crimea Referendum (March 2014):
  • Vote for joining Russia seen as illegitimate by many.
  • For Putin, this was seen as liberation.

Ongoing Conflict in Eastern Ukraine

• Russian-backed separatists seize territory in Eastern Ukraine.
  • Initial hesitance from Ukrainian forces to launch an offensive.
  • Ukrainian forces react after MH17 crash (July 2014).
• Minsk Accords:
  • Signed in 2014 to ensure ceasefire and military withdrawal.
  • Remain unimplemented after eight years.

Current Situation

• Ukraine: Largest European country excluding Russia.
  • Population: 44 million; GDP: over $155 billion.
  • Division between East (pro-Russian) and West (pro-European).
• NATO Expansion:
  • Ukraine's desire to join NATO vs. Putin's opposition to former Soviet states joining.

Putin's Motivations

• Nationalism and domestic politics:
  • Approval ratings soared after Crimea annexation.
• Historical claims:
  • Many Russians view Ukraine's independence as a mistake.
  • Historical forced Russification of Ukraine, particularly in the East.

Ukrainian Sentiment

• 70% of Ukrainians reject the notion of shared identity with Russians.
• 72% consider Russia a hostile state.
• Growing willingness to resist against Russian aggression.

Current Leadership

• President Volodymyr Zelensky:
  • Elected in 2019 with strong opposition to Russian actions.
  • Represents a Ukraine that wants to remain independent from Russia.

Conclusion

• Putin's agenda appears outdated in the context of modern geopolitics.
• The desire for Ukrainian sovereignty is strong despite historical ties.