Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Change

Oct 8, 2024

Counting the Cost: Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Order

Overview

  • Host: Adrian Finnegan, Al Jazeera
  • Main Topics: Global economy shift, US-China trade war, BRICS, new world economic order

Key Themes

Global Economic Shifts

  • US historically dominated the global economy; facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and anti-globalization sentiment.
  • Trade wars, particularly between US and China, are intensifying.
  • Emergence of economic alliances like BRICS to counter Western dominance.

Challenges to the Old Economic Order

  • Post-WWII rules-based order is under strain.
  • Nations are becoming more inward-focused; trade restrictions are rising.
  • WTO and international institutions are in limbo.
  • US and China are competing to shape global economic norms.

Expert Panel Discussion

Participants

  • Danny Khoa: Dean and Professor in Economics, National University of Singapore
  • Irina Murusan: Senior Researcher, Institute for Global Dialogue
  • Philippe Legrand: Political economist, former WTO advisor

Insights from Danny Khoa

  • Old order isn't collapsing but is being questioned.
  • Advanced and emerging economies both criticize the current economic order.
  • Future may focus on economically dynamic nations rather than regional blocks.

Insights from Irina Murusan

  • BRICS aims for a rules-based order and supports multilateralism.
  • Critiques the international system as biased and in need of reform.
  • Smaller and emerging nations seek accountability and fair trade.

Insights from Philippe Legrand

  • Old order based on Western dominance is crumbling.
  • Shift to a multipolar world with geopolitical conflicts.
  • US and China are unwilling to accept constraints on economic policymaking.

Geopolitical and Economic Developments

  • US imposes tariffs on Chinese products; China accuses US of protectionism.
  • China strengthening ties with nations like Serbia and Iran.
  • War in Ukraine impacts global alliances and energy supplies.

BRICS and Emerging Economies

  • BRICS represents a significant share of the global economy.
  • Aims to provide alternatives to US-led financial institutions.
  • Expansion with new members like UAE and Iran.

Debates on the Future of the US Dollar

  • Future as a global reserve currency uncertain.
  • Confidence and economic coalitions play significant roles.

Future Prospects

  • Discussion on economic war between large powers due to weakening international institutions.
  • Potential shift to a new world order: a second Cold War scenario suggested by Philippe.
  • Danny emphasizes the economic rather than security nature of global competition.

Conclusion

  • Optimism about future opportunities for reform and alternative economic systems.
  • Recognition of smaller nations seeking agency in the shifting global landscape.

Additional Resources

  • Contact and Feedback: Connect on social media using hashtag #AJCTC or email at countingthecost@aljazeera.net
  • Online Content: Additional reports and episodes available at AlJazeera.com/CTC

These notes summarize key points from a discussion on the shifting global economic order, focusing on US-China tensions, BRICS, and the potential for new alliances and reforms in the international economic system.