Friday buddy miners [Music] buddy Thursday yeah um shorts short real short short just a little bit we're going just a little bit short we're talking shorts we're talking tariffs and when there's a bit of a segment Gap might as well talk about who's going to buy Spartan for the some fuck she's she's bloody flying and fucking I like talk about shit I've talked about before is that why you're on uranium Twitter spaces again yeah thoughty I've announced to the Twitter world there's a chance I'm going into Federal politics to get Australia nuclear the country needs me and I think it's my job go Australia go Australia I love that you've got a new um must do on your calendar on Wednesday mornings and that's join the Wednesday morning W that'll be that'll be a Thursday J yeah I'm now the uh the for Thursday foreign uranium correspondent for the Twitter world so light out bloody I can see myself sucking on a vape in front of Parliament House telling everyone I'm going to save the country you and Patrick should go me and Patrick from uranium Twitter yeah I love how you've announced there's a chance there's a chance it's happening I'm just going to wait to see if the punters get behind me uh couple of bloody uh we do a bit of copper some trav's traveled projects that's a segment yeah yeah I like it I like it let's the the bloody The Mining stock short report what's going on in the world of weaponized investing yeah we're always a bit interested in what's you know where's the short interest in stocks on ASX there's a story to every short you know like there's like why is someone taking the other side and you can be short of stock for a bunch of reasons sometimes you've got a negative outlook on the you know future performance sometimes you're trying to you know hedge out your exposure in some other way so you short this but you long something else and you you know you're trying to reduce your volatility along the way for for you know relatively marginal kind of gain but there's always a story to a short and when you see kind of changing Dynamics in um in the short interest of stocks I think it's like it's worthy of talking about so I was scanning through spark this morning and there are a few a few you know Mining stock shorts I thought were were worth pointing out and discussing especially relating to those um the short interest W what what what perked your ears up rard well just just starting with the big ones right the the big you know global Diversified miners so check this out on spark I couldn't I couldn't believe when I looked at the the short interest of some of these names so minr they're up to 5.5% sold short or short interest of of that stock maybe unsurprising given um like there's different views in the market about onso there's different views about balance sheet different views about you know the what what the cash flow from um from from monso is going to be and how long it's going to take to to get to a certain place so not to mention ion or lithium yeah well ior is an interesting one right because they the Pure Play ion players like like for example fmg they were only 1% short so if you wanted to express you know short iron or V in equity you think fmg would be the vehicle to to do that or one of the higher you know if you think Ono sits a bit higher on the curve yeah and that's that's a good point too right um then so Rio Tinto was the fascinating one to me right so nearly 5% short and it's you know climbed pretty steadily the last couple of months but it just seemed like a very very um very elevated short interest for a stock like Rio Tinto they've got they've got this um listing on in London and I think I think you can explain that um that elevated short interest by you know people playing the Arbitrage between the London London listing and the the Australian one because I think it's cheap cheaper to buy in London is that right yeah and we% cheaper we'd spoken about a a pod shop I don't think we'd spoke about it on the air but maybe off offline a month or so ago that was critiquing Rio and saying just just get rid of it just like BHB did a couple years ago yeah long long landed short Aussie for R apparently that's trade so um and working the way down so South 32 2.5% short BHP barely anything at um 0.35% short there so I I just found those numbers kind of interesting for the diversifi but of course we like to go you know lower down the pecking order is the stuff that we talk about um it's a pretty funky feature Adam just rolled out in spark I can I can filter ASX tickers based on commodity and I think think you know like it's pretty useful um to just have all of the kind of Commodities pop up especially like you know short interest for example so filtering for Uranium companies with a greater than 2% short interest unsurprisingly boss energy is uh elevated up there so and and they're growing especially growing since the director selling so they're now at 4.5% Short interest at at boss energy I wonder if that's Duncan right I said the other day the bloody HED the Hedge trade long Paladin short boss and I'd be already delacy or Bond or anyone's listening should have given me a pod you be profiting already well long long Paladin like it's not that's not even expressed in the short interest numbers because they're they're pretty elevated themselves a 2.8% short interest dplo 2.4% so maybe some people are um long spot for example but short the equities as a as a hedge for for you know relative rebalance that might explain some of that but um interesting numbers there in uranium world now doing the same in lithium land pretty consistently you know P pill minerals remains 21.4% short they've been elevated like that for a very long time and it doesn't seem to be getting uh lower the longer time goes on that's a very consensus short trade and anytime you have like a consensus view you know in short world you know there's buddy that's FR with danger because um things can change so yeah I'm just so curious to see how that one plays out now also in lithium you've got the high cost sort of you know troubled producers like sea call lithium who they still still call the producer don't know but they're both around that 9% Mark um short interest I think it's been you know tough to actually get get borrow on those stocks because they've come out of the index lower market cap so that's probably you know just it' probably be higher on those stocks if you could if you could you know reasonably get borrow at at an appropriate price um and then you've got lown they're they're an interesting one because they've crept up there they're now at 10.3% Short um production sort of you know gets nearer and nearer um yeah seeing some you know like there's there's there's a lot of eyes online to now I think they had a site visit they've got um doing some you know videos to show the world how how construction and everything everything's tracking there and and some people are expressing a short short position on that on that um that particular Equity yeah what else you got graphite graphite stocks I mean jeez they've uh they've had some um they've been well loved in the short world yes haven't they not very loved in the long World um SAR has been in it forever forever up in the top 100% right just you know they do their semiannual or annual Capital raise need feed into it yeah yeah it's like a reverse dividend sort of thing yeah that's it there's three graphite stocks in um this this commodity list thanks thanks to spark where you can see they've got greater than 2% short interest so they being sarra telga renascor uh interesting to me so s sarra the short interest dipped when they recently raised Capital as you'd expect people short into Capital raise close it out when in the place or whatever um but it immediately just bumps back straight back up so you know whoever was was short the stock they might have closed it out in the placement but then they've just fucking reexpressed the same view well the pool the pool has been recreated they CL like the pool's obviously consumed and then they do the capital raise they uh close out all the shorts and the pool resets for all the stock available to borrow and they fucking start again yeah well the read through is that you know whoever's expressing a short view on that they don't think the capital raise solves the know problems they think they well it just means they'd be short the whole time it's just they just CL clip the ticket once a year totally yeah um yeah found that one kind of kind of interesting right so then um then yeah the the others were much lower around the two sort of 3% there in that that graphite World other notable mining stocks with um some short interest so just kind of looking at the whole kind of medals and Mining World um sandfire 4.8% I know perhaps there's some some people betting the the you know copper Equity sort of over shot fundamentals when you had um you know BHP B Ang all the all the copper stocks you know ran pretty hard there but um also with a bit of Leverage in the book there so yeah you're betting against copper and you're picking a highly levered play yeah uh so ler 7.4% short arur a 7% short so there's some rare earth Bears out there I'm guessing um Vulcan 6.2% so they're they regularly rank pretty high right uh in Gold World you've got so Genesis 7.2% short that's been a mainstay sort of in that um since since it joined the ASX 200 I think West gold 9.7% they've got that deal AR Factor going on too where you short West go by Cora to completion and there's a whatever you know risk- free in quotation marks um return but it still screens high like it feels you know still feels quite High even even for that trade um and then on the energy stock side Cooper 2.2% short Beach 3% so maybe some expecting weights here um you know to get worse before it gets better and then strike energy pretty high to it um 88.2% yeah I think God you fuck you'd have to have set of nuts on you to short things like line town lonus arur and things things that Gina are involved in right like wouldn't you like you'd have to have a pair on you like just the m&a risk yeah when I guess the question is when's when is when's the last time Gina came out with a a cash Bard at a substantial premium cuz lown line toown you know I think that people who short that got got you know their pants kind of handed to them when it came out that Alba M had these had these bids because even if you're pairs trading that you know you got your your face ripped off you because you know the m&a just lifted the share price straight away all that's kind of Unwound now but and to be fair Gina didn't put a bit in just um she helped the shorters out if anything yeah and lus who would who like yeah would it make sense for Gina to buy a lonus out right or would she probably just want to see consolidation between it's pretty hard to run a company like yeah who knows but hey budy lot smarter than me tell you what if Brooks were a public company there wouldn't be anyone shorten them that's one thing not that would be I'd put them at 0% short that' be line Town phase one all over again for the shorters look at the growth look at the growth who would you short like that' be the last thing you'd short if Brook's group was a public company that would be nearly negative shorted you rip your face off shorting things that fly and books literally flies yeah I'd take i' like like take it on margin like and just get extra like without even having the stock you'd be that fucking confident on it especially after that xcmg deal M deal of the Year huge what do you need Brooks for right like if you know what big yellow gear holy snap and duck shit they got some big yellow gear fly around they've taking over the w F industry the OG Brooks High business like talk about go Australia oh mate holy St and duck shit um oh fucking maybe we could take Brooks public maybe quantis buys Brooks it's like you know so long long Brooks short that's actually no have a look at the Brooks King a look at that would you bet against that go St no way right JD macro time Global time EU China there's no better One-Stop shop than yanis Benedict ding take it away I am fascinated by this super super fascinated so a little while ago we saw the Americans jump up their tariffs on a whole host of goods coming from China I'm talking EV solar cells semiconductors batteries all sorts of critical materials you know other metals components and whatnot and the numbers were pretty pretty extreme so lithium ion batteries the Tariff was up 3 1/2x solar cells up from 25% to 50% EVS from 25% that wasn't even competitive at that it was that hard up to 100% it's just enormous and that's just mentioning a few and this whole story of protectionism gets more fascinating with the EU coming out last night they've been investigating the so-called dumping of EVS in the EU from Chinese companies for the last N9 months or so and now they've come out and put their own tariffs on Chinese EVS increasing them by at most 38% to a total of 48% I mean it's pretty hard to be competitive and sell a product if just off the cuff you're getting marked up almost 50% and you know those rates do differ depending on the make and certain other aspects to it but that is the in the most extreme case almost 50% it's huge and it's not just Chinese EVS there's groups like Tesla even BMW the German Renault they're getting hit as well for the vehicles that they make in China and ship across and the um the challenge that has been presented to the EU is enormous and it's happened in such a quick time we'll chck up a chart now and you can see just the scale of shipments of these Chinese EVS into the EU from about 2020 2019 period they went from next to nothing up to an enormous amount about a quarter of all the EV sold in the EU are expected to be Chinese this year and there is still that low quality perception that sort of tag that hangs around a lot of Chinese Goods but I wouldn't be surprised to see that change just look how far the country's come and the quality of the products that they produce over the past 20 years it's it's pretty phenomenal so you can see the EU are trying to get on the front foot and protect their Industries while they can is it is it happening with phones or bloody iPhones and everything getting built in China it's not because I don't know where else you'd go where else would you buy them yeah true that they don't have an industry to to protect in that regard but the um's what's the bigger picture here the bigger picture is just fascinating the EU and not just the EU this is around the world but the EU want to get rid of internal combustion engine Vehicles by 2035 and that's going to be incredibly hard to achieve if you're increasing the price remember the reason consumers aren't buying the european-made electric vehicles is because of the price because groups like Volkswagen and so can't produce them as cheap as the Chinese can at the moment so it's going to be very three to five times the price isn't it yeah I mean at least sort of 3x and if you go to the m luxury which a lot of European car makers are known for it's many many multiples so that that change isn't going to happen overnight obviously but 2035 will kind of be here in no time and you need to start seeing serious changes right now so what I think will happen and what we've seen in in in different fields happen already is a tweaking to the legislation that's been put forward so we saw Sweden go from 100% Renewables in terms of their electric power being produced to low carbon or green energy and in that circumstance it means involving nuclear and I dare say there's going to be a bit of a Switcheroo from 100% electric vehicles to lower carbon vehicles or something of that ilk bringing in hybrids and other sort of vehicles that bring the overall emissions but don't wreck their industry I mean you look at the car making industry in Europe and we're talking about 13 million jobs it's enormous and it's a significant portion of GDP as well so half of Australia exactly it's it's a huge amount M so what happens in the in the long term yeah I I think it's pretty concerning for the EU I mean we've Trav you studied economics and stuff and you back in the day you yeah you understand 101 protected Industries whether it be via tariffs and subsidies they only really stay protected and they stay competitive in quotation marks as long as they're sort of supported then when the support is pulled out the the downfall can be pretty pretty Swift and at the end of the day the industries need to maintain their Global competitiveness and German cars have been super super competitive for a long time they've been you know Leading Edge in in all sorts of like you know from the luxury all the way down to the commercial Mass massade vehicles but they're going to really have to lift their game if they want to stay in competition with these Chinese makers and there's a bit of this sort of wording by the EU they're talking about helping EU makers catch up to the advancements that Chinese companies have had in the past 10 or so years I think that's tough right because the moment you know you've got protectionist policies be it subsidies be it tariffs or whatever like competition is what drives Innovation um in this case you know what what your your your EUR European manufacturers they'll just get used to a different Baseline they'll get used to subsidies they'll get used to competing against you know someone with a handicap um but even though that person with a handicap is still better than them that that's a huge medium and longer term concern and then you've also got in the shorter term the huge concern which the Germans are well aware of triggering a trade War at the moment of course cars are just one product they buy heaps of other things from China and just look at the the poor bloody barley and wine industry in Australia after we just mutter the thoughts that a global pandemic should have some sort of Investigation into it it completely cooked the wine industry here for years and the crayfish and the crayfish fucking cray good for us they cheap as fuck look beef and dairy and various other grains as well there was there was heaps and we saw recently cattle and esalt two Chinese battery makers they canned their plans to build facilities or plants in Germany and that is SE to be you know they didn't obviously say it but there seems to be some sort of political influence and who knows there could be wider sort of repercussions and then tying it to a a resources sort of front if you're supporting the local car makers in Europe you'd think you'd go down and look at the the raw materials needed and maybe it should or maybe it could spur some sort of investment in critical raw materials we know they've got the critical raw materials act which they've spoken about for bloody ages and just haven't done anything on so I'm Keen to see a bit more action on that front if they do want to have European or Western companies building batteries and then going all the way down and building electric vehicles it's probably about time they they stopped talking about it and actually you know started putting shovels in the ground yeah yeah fucking love your bloody work J really interesting right I um yeah following that one closely it's big theme playing out speaking of big themes mate we've had a big theme on money of mine because there's a segment I reckon we've recycled about 12 times and each time M different energy different perspectives but we can't stop talking about Spartan I love it and there's there's been no m&a but we've just talked about m& so fucking but mty this morning like we should have a chat about who's going to buy Spartan again again let's get let's get the ding ding ding out the way then you got a couple scraps left JD fuck I wish it wasn't scraps I told you I said I wanted to buy it at 58 if anyone wants to lend me half a mill fucking then I'll give it back in a 10 years or something fucking with interest I'd be loaded right now Wait So Gone from like from like in a couple of days lows 70 cents up to highs 84 cents today as you can see on the spark chart I got here mate word on the deine the WhatsApp messages are just being gone off there's a dollar bid incoming that's I just not true yeah let's just like that's a rumor let just that's just not not but yeah you're right that's that's doing its rounds but I just think like there's it hasn't come from anyone with you know substance it's like people say there's this rumor going around if you heard this rumor but no one knows you know I think they've all started it within themselves yeah and if anyone sort of asks us are you spreading this rumor no if you've heard it on the show then we're spreading it m the first time I heard this rumor was my uncle Steve yeah anyway he's in the nighte Big Steve anyway he hooked us up with Brooks Airways yeah fuck yeah he's a deal maker yes man hey s him having dinner with the CCP at fucking dig maybe sorting out some bloody enriched uranium or something fucking well he should have Steve on the show one day anyway fucking right so if they 822 cents today and like $1 probably wouldn't even get the deal done that's only a 21% premium at the moment that might get the job done so I've gone up down sideways back and forth on this fucking Spartan Journey today I originally was going to put me cock on the Block and say I think they'll develop it themselves I don't think ramus are going to bid for it that was me view but then I'm start typing away and then I'm like fuck it just makes so much sense for ramus to have this Spartan the Spartan assets in their portfolio but then I'm like one are they going to pay up for it but then two even if they do want to Chuck a bit in are Spartan even going to accept it because with Peppa going off at the moment and things just keep sort of getting better and better for them if they do want to go to line and I'm like so I don't know where I fucking landed to be honest but they've got some big shareholders right who could really have a lot of sway in in a deal getting done yeah yeah so and and that and the interesting thing to think of is you know TBO have 8 and a half X their money from that recap yeah like they got 160 OD million shares so they've they've made some big bucks they have but they've blown a lot in strand line and they've blown a lot wow I don't know what the cost Bas in True North copper is but like they want to they want to lock this in they need they need to offset some yeah losses elsewhere yeah so but this is obviously been a fucking good one for them so they they're going to want to obviously get out at some stage and 18% stake they've got it' be interesting to see where that stake goes PE also likes to hold on to money to charge a management fee one other thing just to bear in mind and they and they're not under pressure to pay it out quickly either so they might just they might just hold on to it but um so let's let's just let's just go through how this fucking works so cuz where they are at the moment they could Spartan could easily like they're nearly a billion dollar market cap they could easily raise shit light Equity to fund this whole thing they could easily take on debt their the balls in their court at the moment funding options Gore yeah and but R and romeus they're I guess renowned for only growing at the right price so like to figure that they're going to have to do like a 1.1 $1.2 billion deal like this is at today's price whether that's a all script mix of as we know they're probably going to have 600 bucks in cash at the end of the year could be a mix of cash and script um whether they're going to bloody pay it up I feel like they pay they've paid like decent premiums in the past I feel like a polo was a was a you know pretty decent premium I have to check the but anything at this sky like this is this scale is like really above and beyond what they've sort of done before they' be diluting a lot to get get a deal done for sure so like I think I think roughly like say if it was all scrip at the moment it' be around 30 35% Spartan 60 65 ramus is that is that at at a dollar assuming a dollar that's around so if it's more it be fucking more but then chuck chuck a bit of cash in it won't be as um you know obviously the the Remus ownership of it goes down a bit but so the CU the way I'm thinking like this dowar anger Mill the the idea of getting the break of day dirt the the mus grave dirt that ramus have got that's due to go to the checkers Mill that's you know right near dowar Ranger and look they're stage one PFS for mus grave it was it was initially for a 5-year project half a million ton 655,000 ounces a year but they've got nearly a 1 million ounces in resource so a lot potentially a lot more life there so if ramus could have that Q project go out from well exceed 5 years in line with bloody never never pepp like the delara Project G that that would mean you could refurb that delara Mill to instead of 1 1.3 million T perom which is you know what we've hypothesized with could be could be one and a half now that Peppa's proven up but they could go they've got the crushing and the the leeching capacity and the the big sag Mill to actually have a two two and a half million ton operation if they wanted to if they had the extra dirt so and that that had send that operation to be like a plus to 100,000 oun project while that like the musg grave dirt's going there so um it's just fucking way better if you can run it bloody you know 40% more dirt that's fucking lot lower processing cost if they could make that into one big operation and that it just makes so much fucking sense for that to happen but it's whether amus would pay up for it so you look at the if you look at the 10-year Outlook that ramus put out for Mount magnet if you take away take away the dirt that's going to be a 100 100 like ranges like sort 100 140,000 oun sort of operation so like this this spot the dgar anger operation if that become in their hands That's like fucking big chunk of their portfolio of the anwers that would be coming out of that project if they made it work so and then yeah there is though then right can they then fill the checkers Mill but Spartan have the yaoo project as well it's it's I think it's about further away yeah so it's it's west of Mount magnet to be hard to tr it it's 1.5 G that stuff yeah 1.4 g 243,000 o it's 115 K away but they have ramas have truck dirt a long a long way before so there there's a bit of a solution so you you fucking tie all that in together and it's like fuck romeus like whether it's whether the whether the to put a bit in over a buck now whether CU they could have taken it for or possibly taken it for 60 or 70 cents 6 months ago if they're going to now pay up um that amount of money but you know Peppers started proven up there so the the story has changed they've drilled down to a fraking kilometer and like there got some got some life there but even if romez do put the bed in I just don't even know if Spartan will take it I have odd percent of 30 40% of a pro forer instead of having 100% of this pretty bloody good operation you don't want to go hostile like you want an agreed deal here for deal protection um like you you know you want to come out with an agreed deal from both boards and that's you know by way of scheme of arrangement there's there's deal protection in that as opposed to you know coming out here with a bloody a hostile approach um I just think you would You' be you'd be be set to fail if you went if you went hostile in this situation so you need you need you need the Spartan board to be on board to get a deal done which means it's got to be an appropriate premium and I just looked so rames actually paid a 50% premium for spectrum medals to get penny back in the day and it was on vaps it was like 60% premium I think like the quantum here is so you know it's like we're in the billions now so it's like you can't it'd be harder to bloody you know get that away and it be appropriate to your shareholders and everything but deals get done when you're desperate um and so who's who's the most who who who needs it the most because whoever needs it the most will pay up and the moment they think someone else is in the door then someone else comes in and all those games happen you I would I would argue that ramus needs it more than Spartan does at the moment if to put them side by side I'm even thinking like who which which gold which potential acquirer out there needs a a growth project the most right and ramus can pay more because they've got the synergies vers vers anyone else but like you know you never know sometimes there's um left field bids that that just like fuck I need pop up yeah like you know we talked briefly on the GC podcast about um uh Copper Mountain sold their Eva project for example right that that belong The Logical acquire of that was MMG because I had the regional synergies right next door which I can have circuit on wouldn't have cost much and Harmony comes out and pays fucking way more than probably anyone else was prepared to pay because they wanted cop project yeah to develop an undeveloped copper project it just it was a must for them so we we're willing to pay stupid you know number sometimes those things happen it could and like re reg just Springs to mind for that like someone that needs a fuck now that mfil is on Ice a bit like that like they might need a Bloody project yeah yeah so you're you're no synergies but it's like literally fucking buying it to buying it to mine it um like can't say can't say West they they look tied up with Kora was probably the most logical after ramus just with the the regional synergies it was interesting looking at the uh looking at uh Mr Bramwell here on LinkedIn dressed up as a bloody Spartan warrior playing playing a bit of games I reckon he's like if I can drive this Spartan price up a bit with a bit of bloody Market gossip amelus are going to have to cough up more dough for it who knows yeah your guess is as good as mine that was um mate that was then he had the aura comment after did the aura what is it with uh companies uh West gold buying into companies with aura Cora AA gold everyone's like oh is he going AA band now he's playing m games I fucking like it getting a bit of trump a bit sorry a bit of Elon about him yeah yeah B like Belle viw would be another one but like the only way the reason why is would you know it' be a good way to sneak in a big Capital race so their short interest is pretty low now B like in the low two so I think the Market's kind of thinking they're okay but you never know like they're I guess the biggest Synergy between Spartan and Bellevue is that they're both verified so that cuts two subscriptions into one that's a tangible Synergy that's an that's a genuinely real Synergy both verify power users you know two of the most exciting gold projects in the country and look they prove those resources up before verify AI come in can you fucking imagine if verify AI was around when they proven that up how much bloody gold they' have they would have found pepper a year ago if if they would have found Salt as well like they fucking it's probably yet to be found and like they would have found pepper without peppering the tenure it would have just been like fucking drill there I just don't think it's a coincidence that two of the most exciting gold projects in the country use verify well or or a gold they they're verified West gold gave them6 million bucks it's science so easy you do the numbers I got a confession on verify by the way one of the phone manager of the best track record in Australia asked for an intro to Steve at verified because he's just that impressed by either way we've talked about it and BC and the companies that use it so oh we're we're now venturing into the VC World boys yeah well I mean it just goes to show probably got to buy verif verify is capturing the attention of like Elite resources fund managers will fucking mate use it and you might get some and they didn't see it from announcements they saw it on the show so if you want your company be bought out for Millions you get in touch and we'll do some ads for you tra you're uh gold Road's best friend would they ever look at doing something random like this as a non-controlling interest they might look to take a a noncontrolling joint venture interest in it and let let uh Spartan develop the rest is that a is that a possibility sure yeah I that I think that was the strategy with degy they sort of bought shares in degy a lot earlier I don't think they bought shares in Sp I just and I guess back on the ramus I I can't see ramus committing a shitload of cash to this or if they're going to do it like it'd be big chunk of script because I would imagine they want to keep that fucking cash in case they have to build their own Mill at Rebecca and this kisu or do do the deal to get karasu damn because until there's a processing solution there they're bloody stuck and I think they'll be keeping the cash for that they're going to be making like a lot of money in at these go prices Rus for you know a couple more quarters still so yeah yeah I think the cash can can replenish to lay flexibility um but you're right like you know they they're going to have growth Ambitions be it organic and and and also in organic to field check as if they can find something else to go in there too well yeah and I just I don't think they're just going to take Spartan just to get that 400,000 ounce title or anything I think I wouldn't be surprised if they'll sit on the cash patiently for a Rebecca solution I'm not not sure I still I still I've ended up just going around in circles end up in the same spot something will Spartan will either build it or they'll get bought that's the bloody answer left or what if they put out dog shit met and the thing just tanked oh mate so there's a third option too Jesus Christ fuck that a that after if that happened after doing so many random segments on it nearly leave the shot I think we I think we end podcast just hang up the mic after that never bloody never drinking gin again um not that I drink Jin fucking here's left field but look the location kind of fucks this one and I think if they located differently I reckon there might be other options imagine instead of being Spartan being bought they use their script to buy something else to lift the feed of daar Ranger though of come up trumps thinking what could work because there's nothing really close enough like great Boulder for instance is 220 K away and they're not going to really buy I can't seem buying Rumble cuz uh that's close but it's all in ultr mavic but they I think I don't think location is not their friend there there's nothing really makes sense that I can see if you if you think about so gascoin obviously had issues of filling the mill when it was gascoin days and the best thing they could buy was Firefly which is 1.5 G Dirt 11 15 km away that sort of shows how I guess constrained they were to bring in any of these you know smaller um neighboring deposits to fill that me back there fucking bloody interesting interesting Jesus Christ that fucking if that Bloody that break of day dirt musg grave dirt was gone there that' be a fucking good operation well mate musra this is I'll tell you something right back in 2021 Musgrave had a substantially larger market cap than gascoin and it 100% should have bought gascoin back then yeah I mean like gr never never it wasn't discovered get all that sort of stuff but it just like mate you was the fucking undevelop you know what I mean like you as the project could have gotten a mill for fucking pennies any yeah I remember but different times different times back in the day oh I can't well wish we wait till we're doing this in 20140 and we can say oh I remember back in 2020 like that'll make us sound the young punters will be like oh these BLS are just Gods yeah we keep working towards that MD we'll be right what's going on in the bloody MMG World mate let's go to Africa they're an interesting mob they are they're really interesting I spent a little while looking at them today so MMG as we spoke about roughly six months ago bought Comal from private Equity now they'll be known to some of the Aussie punters out there from their do Gold River and rosebury ownership here in Australia plus um they got a couple assets sprinkled all around the world now they bought the mine and they spoke at the time I remember when we sort of analyzed the deal they were speaking a lot about this future multiple because they wanted to Envision this time where they've more than doubled and then you know added another 50% again onto production now they're actually doing that they have announced they're going to tip in US $700 million into Comic cow to lift production from 60,000 tons of copper up to 130,000 tons of copper plus 5 million ounces of silver which I believe is being streamed so MMG the entire entity will be producing a bit under 600,000 tons of copper or copper equivalent rather perom now they want to hit at Comic that that figure by the final quarter of 2027 how how do you know how much of that 600 is copper H let's just say half it's it's more than half I literally saw the number just before two3 oh no it's 70% 70% 420,000 tons J no edits there either off his he's fucking genius dled and Rosey zinc assets so that's that's the majority of the other commodity that they they pump out yeah so they did this rights issue about a week ago to raise us $1.16 billion it's that's a a huge amount so they are using a bit over 600 million to pay down an acquisition short-term acquisition funding uh facility that they had another 200 to pay down south South American loan they're the majority owners of Las bombus another 340 million to pay down a revolver and that's going to get rid of paying 80 million per anom in you know to service that debt they ripped out that rights issue at a 31% discount to the last close so that sounds pretty heavy but the stock had run quite hard in recent times on the back of copper doing very well and Chinese companies getting a bit more love out there so they really jumped at that opportunity to delever and now there was another they did about a week and a half ago which flew a bit under the radar but they sold 45% of comical to cnic now CN I they in China yes they are Chinese yeah so they were one of the debt providers to fund that acquisition now they've paid 500 million us for 45% of the mine MMG have just essentially turned right back around and given that 500 bucks right back to them to pay down a facility that they had with them so there's a chunky US1 billion loan that was used as part of the acquisition that now sits at the the joint venture level which is 55% MMG owned and 45% CN I owned so MMG were and still are even after this a pretty highly indebted company there's um their Sales Plus the rights issue that they've done a pretty prudent in my opinion to delever the balance sheet they've moved from four times net debt to ebit D to three times but that is using a 2023 Abit figure which did assume comical ownership for the entirety of that year naturally you'd prefer a a forward-looking figure and I think you know forward-looking things would look quite a bit healthier copper has improved quite a bit and if you're if you're looking at next year copper cathode production and copper in concentrate production is going to jump up and then up again the following year cash flow should follow that and that'll allow them to sort of significantly delever but there's a lot of similarities between these guys and sandfire both pretty indebted companies that done big Acquisitions kind of changing their profile quite substantially in the last few years and they'll be sort of hoping that they can lift their output delever into a a sort of uh beneficial copper price environment and be quite quite different companies in two or three years time yeah both so both sand sandfire took on a lot of debt to buy matsa when they did and then sort of the equity raise as well and sort of and they they both sort of I mean right tissue and they both did a raise within a year 12 months later sire had to you know pay down a lot of their debt with new equity and but I mean it's like and both of them you know they were sale processes that they they kind of both paid kind of you know top top dollar for them and both of them were I guess bets on copper that have you know now actually look favorable like I I remember when we talked about this deal and I was pretty scathing from just evaluation I listen to it before yeah not not just you we were um you know there were certain assumptions baked in that needed to go right yeah yeah and um like it might be one of those critiques where I eat my eat my shorts because you know the the world moved in the direction they were betting which is you know copper price is higher for longer and you know what we've seen today in in 2024 is that's the way the world has moved whether it stays that way I don't know but um like that you know it's the MMG share prices has run really hard since um like the if if if the same asset would to sell again today it would have sold for for more than what they paid for it so yeah I mean like you know I'm glad it's worked out that way and good on I'll to eat my shorts yeah I mean it's cool to talk about increasing copper production not just these sort of static assets that change in hands again but money going in the ground to to lift production of a a medal we need and you just wonder like we said back then is it going to continue just to be trying companies that do that or is the West actually going to going to grab the opportunity and do it of course we've seen an increase in production at CA up in up in the DLC but that is just as much Chinese owned as it is sort of Western owned so would MMG buy samire I mean they've got two assets both in in Botswana I'm not sure if there would actually be synergies MMG is 67% owned by China Min medal was trading house big sort of conglomerate type thing so I wonder what they'd be thinking whether they see value but a bunch of bunch of international approvals needed for those sorts of that sort of thing oh well it's recorded anyway so it's fucking we're in the I'm in the game in the game next segment traps troubled projects fucking L this segment well no I mean there were just a couple of um you know kind of announcements that popped up today and I'm like oh don't want to talk about this I'll group them together into a segment but um you know they're worth talking about and I just think there's a lot of lessons we can take away from the projects that become troubled for whatever reasons the common theme amongst these is um the the cap structure so Galina's Abra project so the mighty Galina mining they came out with this um operational update today unfortunately um voluntary administrators were brought in a little while ago we talked about that so C menor's at work there in in today's operational update we learn that you know Stern ship has been brought on to run a a sale and recapitalization process um oh gas going 2.0 well there's a I mean I think they they're on strand line too there's a lot of these you know at least in gascoin there was a shiny new discovery that you could get um yeah B to recap around but like that was a recapitalization I think they'd word that one rather than a uh exactly sale but they might have explored all options but yeah no doubt um this one is um yeah I mean we've we've talked about this company a few times in the past and the trouble that they had you know bringing this mine online like the the grades I think haven't reconciled with what what they were expecting but you know they also probably came in at it from uh from the wrong spot as well initially yeah so um and and because you know there's a substantial debt burden in the capital structure there this asset is is distressed too so these these um these things they're not very fun to go through like you know the whole the whole bloody you know the the mine that came online and didn't go to plan and heaps of debt in the cap structure now creditors left in the midst voluntary Administration process like you know creditors who are antsy about it and all that sort of stuff these are not fun processes to be part of they're you know can fucking send companies bankrupt like the creditors creditors don't yet aren't aren't guaranteed to get you know bloody their money back either so you know there's there just there's these these processes they suck um and you look at like quarter end so there was about a was 170 million bucks a yet in the capital structure owing to Taurus that's in sort of Aussie equivalent um like they'll be put if it's not making positive cash flow yet then they'll keep tipping in more throughout this process you've got a lot of heads to feed in voluntary Administration like B will take their Fair lick you've got you know there's you know you got to make sure um unsecured creditors get looked after if they're um you know people you depend on or companies you depend on to actually continue operations so then you got your senior lended Taurus and and they they're you know I don't think Taurus is um is is going to going to look they they've wanted stship to be on this because they're probably going to want 100 cents back on the dollar that's the minimum outcome for them is got to get my bloody money back but you know you're not guaranteed that in these sorts of processes you sort of the market will do whatever the market you know will do there'll be a market clearing price for this and and and there's going that's probably going to involve a haircut and I think like when you think of galena's abber project I I don't know what their cash flow Dynamics are like but they they're sort of you know maybe making money maybe losing money sometimes depending on commodity prices and all that sort of stuff and those there's heaps of Minds like that out there but you can't it's not sustainable for them to have $170 million of debt in fact I think those sorts of assets should have no debt um so you know where where does this go I don't know I'd love to see the asset come back to Market with no debt in the capital structure I hope I hope you know tourist doesn't roll debt and it fucking you know destroys more Equity along the way I just hope they fucking wipe the Slate clean wherever it ends up you know and just fucking make sure this asset comes back to Market with fucking no debt in the capital structure because otherwise you just you know you're asking for trouble again yeah and like God look at the like you'd be a fucking mining contractor For Love or Money burn Cut's the mining contractor there yeah also the contractor at wuna yeah Capricorn copper yeah telfa has just had the sink out like and they've got this as well yeah tough G well fuck right I Hope they've got C insurance right yeah I think yeah tough tough gig tough gig um Hastings is the other one in the category so that they um you know again financing conundrum that I've spoken about in the past they started um building before the project was fully funded and and because one of the funding sort of levers they drew upon was this convertible with wo that is you know out of the money um funding the rest of the project has been an insurmountable task for for Hastings of course I'm talking about the Yan Banner rare Earth's project now the update they came to the market with today is that um the cost to complete the project is $321 million after spending 153 million to date so what they say is that this revised cost to complete number is 30 million bucks lower than it previously been flagged in the market um it it looks like they've reduced the scope of the EPC contract with the gr they you know they've removed stage two Hydromet tsf there a few other things they've done plus they reckon they found some OPC savings too and I'm I'm naturally a bit skeptical of these kinds of savings because predicted savings yeah predicted savings and and they're Al so it's like I think you can have you can come up with you know cost or capex cost Savings in in two ways one is you know you might have an a grade in-house engineering team to optimize the shit out of um things and you realize you can do things more efficiently and still get you know solid outcomes and I think another one is if you're struggling to finance the project you you start skimming things out make the total funding ask a bit more doable because you're you know you're under pressure not to actually get get the funding to finish the thing um and in the case of Hastings I can't help but think it's more of the the latter than it is you know the the former so $47 million market cap Hastings have but they've got you know $181 million owing to wo to be repaid in October 2025 and that's growing every day um another 321 million they say now is required to complete the project the capital structure is really limiting Hastings from being an interesting company unfortunately I mean like kind of like alinaa if you look at Hastings without the debt in that cap structure you could make an investment case right like you if you look at Hastings without the debt in the cap structure you know you go um just remove the whole mind to magnet bullshit like I just think that's trash um your developer just concentrate on the just concentrate that or send it to either any AB or concentrate on the concentrate exactly send it to you know Anya or Ki or you know make some money doing that but the the current capital structure Mak touching the equity like touching a bloody hot stove top right now you know we're we're just going to have to watch this one play out and maybe they'll strum up a financing miracle and pull it all together um while while keeping the equity intact or or maybe you know the downside of these sorts of situations like like Hastings is we could get another horizont minerals remember when I did a case study on them where the debt kills the developer before construction is even compl completed and a funding Gap remains don't know which one it's going to be but um M if you're if you're if you're a sicko you touch the hot S I think if you go back a few years how and how fucking things have changed doubly you'd say they obviously must have been harder to get the equity hence people like Hastings Galena kadus all had high amounts of debt yeah and but now be lucky to get the banks to fucking lend the that but looks like the equity the the chase for Equity is a lot easier so I think we're going to see a lot more Equity going for TBA M tck oh that's what I reckon I reckon it's right yeah what are you reckon JD you mean like not these ones shit not these ones specifically but just going forward in general well even like why these all these operations had a lot of debt so sure of not being able to raise the capital there's also an element of people not wanting to dilute that's always an element yeah I think so I think people get like I did heaps of work on this look at the spreadsheet it says if I put more debt in it my npv per share is higher but there's you know not realistic consideration for the risk factors that could blow that out and require got to pull it off yeah people just think you can do the whatever standard 1/3 2/3 kind of split yeah ah very good boys fucking every time I think there's not much going on in the morning we still go for 40 50 minutes fuck there's always stuff going on there's always bloody we will find something that may not even be a story and we'll just make one up the world's an interesting place fucking o it is JD the bloody o oh right thanks all the bloody Partners who we have in the show verify and verify Jesus Christ could they merge I'm into sponsorship m&a at the moment there's a ticket to be C you can only be a sponsor if you can potentially merge with another one so just a bloody filter test there uh get wet Solutions DSi Underground overstone CR Insurance wa water BS and cadr those fucking spark charts brilliant the information contained in this episode of money of mine is of General nature only and does not take into account the objectives financial situation or needs of any particular person before making any investment decision you should consult with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives financial situation and needs need