Overview
This lecture discussed the future of APEC within the broader context of global power shifts, emphasizing the rise of multipolarity, the US-China rivalry, and challenges for middle powers like South Korea.
The Structure and Evolution of Global Order
- Institutions are rule-based systems allowing states to interact (e.g., APEC, NATO).
- An order is a collection of institutions managed by great powers to structure relations among states.
- Bounded orders involve a subset of great powers; international orders include all.
- During the Cold War, two main bounded orders existed: the Western (US-led) and Communist (Soviet-led), plus a thin international order (e.g., UN).
- After 1991, US unipolarity allowed a robust liberal international order.
- Return to multipolarity (US, China, Russia) is generating new bounded orders and weakening international institutions.
APEC in Today’s Multipolar World
- APEC was a product of the optimistic post-Cold War era focused on globalization and absolute economic gains.
- Multipolarity and deep US-China rivalry now undermine APEC’s consensus and effectiveness.
- The US and China are forming competing security and economic alliances/bounded orders in Asia.
- APEC is increasingly thin—less influential than the bounded orders due to renewed security competition.
Key Challenges for APEC
- US-China economic, technological, military, and ideological competition divides APEC members.
- Trade and investment flows are disrupted by protectionism, tech restrictions, and new tariffs.
- Globalization is in decline, with rising state intervention and preference for bilateral agreements.
- “China plus one” strategies to diversify supply chains are being targeted by new US trade rules.
Potential Opportunities & Optimistic Scenarios
- APEC may act as a “soft bridge” for dialogue, as demonstrated in high-level US-China meetings.
- Regional and subregional groups (e.g., ASEAN; RCEP) offer alternative frameworks for economic integration.
- Sectoral cooperation (energy, digital trade, green tech) could help maintain some economic progress.
- Smaller and middle powers can band together to preserve rules and hedge against great power dominance.
South Korea’s Position and Agency
- South Korea, as a small frontline state allied with the US, has limited agency in shaping order.
- It must align technologically and strategically with the US, particularly in tech and security.
- South Korea should invest in APEC and regional economic groupings to maintain economic ties and hedge risks.
Managing Great Power Competition
- Security competition between the US and China includes both containment and attempts at rollback.
- Nuclear weapons act as a deterrent, motivating both sides to avoid direct conflict.
- Subgroupings (e.g., BRICS, Quad, RCEP) can moderate competition and create new opportunities for cooperation.
Key Terms & Definitions
- Institution — A body of rules governing state interactions (e.g., APEC).
- Order — A grouping of institutions designed to manage relations (e.g., Western Order).
- Bounded Order — An order including only select great powers.
- International Order — An order that includes all major powers.
- Multipolarity — A global structure with several great powers.
- Absolute Gains — Economic benefits for all parties, typical of globalization.
- Zero Sum — Competition where one side’s gain is another’s loss.
Action Items / Next Steps
- Review the differences between bounded and international orders.
- Study recent trade and tech policy shifts affecting APEC members.
- Examine South Korea’s strategies for economic resilience within APEC and other regional institutions.