Overview
Experts warn that egg prices in the US are expected to continue rising due to persistent and severe bird flu outbreaks affecting poultry and other species. The culling of millions of birds, new seasonality in infection rates, and cross-species transmission are driving concerns for both the food supply and global health.
Impact of Bird Flu on Egg Prices
- Persistent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (bird flu) have resulted in large-scale culling of poultry in the US since 2022.
- Early and intense outbreaks in 2025 have led to increased industry concern over the scale of poultry loss and subsequent egg price hikes.
- Egg prices show a new pattern of seasonality, with peaks during fall and winter due to wild bird migration and virus spread.
- A January 2025 cull of 23 million poultry birds led to egg prices reaching $6 per dozen in March.
- Egg prices can drop as outbreaks subside, as seen in October 2025, when prices fell below $1.20 per dozen amid rising supply.
Scope of the Outbreak
- Over 175 million poultry birds in the US have been killed or culled due to bird flu since its arrival.
- The US has more than 378 million egg-laying chickens, with billions of broilers and hundreds of millions of turkeys processed yearly.
- Bird flu detections are notably higher during fall and spring migrations.
Cross-Species Transmission and Environmental Impact
- Bird flu has spread from poultry to mammals, with first US detection in dairy cattle in March 2024 and over 900 infected herds across 17 states.
- New species, including sheep and wild animals like seals and seabirds, are also being affected, causing ecosystem disruptions and mass die-offs.
- Some bird species, such as great skuas, are approaching extinction due to repeated outbreaks.
Human Health Concerns
- There have been 67 human cases of bird flu in the US, mainly among poultry workers, but no documented human-to-human transmission yet.
- Experts warn the virus could potentially mutate and gain the ability to spread between humans, posing a pandemic risk.
Expert Predictions and Market Outlook
- Experts expect egg prices to rise as much as 24% in 2026 due to ongoing outbreaks and market instability.
- Price fluctuations are expected to remain significant, with increases during peak outbreak periods and decreases as outbreaks wane.
Recommendations / Advice
- Authorities and industry stakeholders should closely monitor bird flu transmission patterns and prepare for further supply chain disruptions.
- Continued vigilance is encouraged regarding the potential for the virus to adapt and create greater risks for animal and human populations.