Cognitive Biases Overview

Overview

• Lecture topic: cognitive biases — common types, causes, and ways to counteract them.
• Biases are widespread psychological tendencies that impair objectivity and rationality.
• Many biases arise from useful heuristics (mental shortcuts) that are usually efficient but fallible.

Memory Biases

• Definition: Biases affecting how we encode, recall, and use information.
• Recency effect: Better recall of items presented most recently.
• Primacy effect: Better recall of items presented at the start of a sequence.
• Practical tip: When presenting three points, place the weakest in the middle to exploit primacy and recency.
• Availability bias: Judgments about frequency/probability depend on how easily examples come to mind.
  • Example: People often think more words start with "k" than have "k" as the third letter due to recall ease.
• Mere exposure (familiarity) effect: We prefer familiar things encountered before.
  • Example: Repeated ads increase preference for a brand even without clicks.
• Salience/emotional-event bias: We overestimate probability of vivid or dramatic events.
  • Examples: Overestimating shark attacks or airplane danger relative to drowning or driving.
• Vivid individual-case bias: Vivid stories about individuals move us more than statistical evidence.
  • Examples: Smoking statistics vs. a vivid story of a friend dying; charity appeals that focus on single victims.
• Imagination effect: Imagining an event increases perceived likelihood of that event.
  • Example: Imagining a candidate winning makes people judge that outcome as more likely.

Context Biases

• Definition: Judgments biased by irrelevant contextual features (presentation or environment).
• Anchoring effect: People use arbitrary numbers as starting points and insufficiently adjust away.
  • Example: Population estimates for Eritrea differ when question anchors with 50 million vs. 5 million.
  • Practical application: First offer in bargaining sets an anchor (e.g., listing price in real estate).
• Agent metaphors: Using person-like language biases predictions toward agent-like behavior.
  • Example: Saying "markets climbed" suggests they will continue climbing, unlike neutral phrasing.
• Price/label context effects: Expectations from price or labels alter perceived quality.
  • Example: Same wine rated better when labeled with a higher price.
• Fluency/pronounceability effect: Hard-to-pronounce names judged riskier or more harmful.
• Framing effect: Equivalent information framed differently changes decisions.
  • Example: Surgery described as "10% chance of dying" versus "90% chance of survival" affects choice.

Evidential Failures

• Definition: Failures to use evidence correctly when forming or updating beliefs.
• Confirmation bias: Tendency to search for or favor evidence that confirms preexisting beliefs.
  • Example: Seeking news that supports your views increases perceived support for them.
• Belief perseverance: Continuing to hold a belief even after it is shown to be false.
  • Everyday example: Still thinking a meeting is on Friday after being corrected it is Saturday.

Ego Biases

• Definition: Biases about self-perception and comparisons to others.
• Above-average effect: Most people assess themselves as better than average at tasks.
  • Example: Majority of drivers rate themselves as more skillful and less risky than average.

Implicit Social Biases

• Implicit biases: Unconscious associations causing biased attitudes toward races, genders, or disadvantaged groups.
• Distinction: Implicit biases differ from explicit prejudice but are still harmful.
• Note: Implicit biases are harder to counteract because they are unconscious; everyone has them to some extent.
• Course resources: Tests and videos provided in course materials to explore implicit biases further.

Strategies To Reduce Bias

• Awareness: Recognizing where and when biases commonly affect judgments helps counteract them.
• Reframe problems: Formulate issues in multiple ways to avoid framing effects.
• Seek disconfirming evidence: Actively look for arguments and data that challenge your views.
  • Techniques: Imagine objections, or discuss sincerely with someone who disagrees.
• Slow thinking: Allow time for careful, deliberate thought instead of quick heuristic replies.
• Systematic reasoning: Write arguments in standard form or formalize reasoning when possible.
• Use formal tools: Apply probability theory and other quantitative methods where relevant.
• General principle: Replace rapid intuitive judgments with slower, structured, or formal processes.

Key Terms and Definitions

• Heuristics: Mental shortcuts that help quick judgments but can produce systematic errors.
• Recency Effect: Better recall for most recently presented items.
• Primacy Effect: Better recall for items presented first in a sequence.
• Availability Bias: Judging frequency by ease of recalling examples.
• Anchoring Effect: Relying on an initial reference point when estimating.
• Framing Effect: Different presentations of equivalent information influence choices.
• Confirmation Bias: Favoring information that confirms existing beliefs.
• Belief Perseverance: Persistence of a belief after it has been discredited.
• Above-Average Effect: Overestimating one's abilities relative to others.
• Implicit Bias: Unconscious associations that shape attitudes toward social groups.

Action Items / Next Steps (If Using This Material)

• When making important decisions, deliberately reframe the problem at least two ways.
• Practice seeking disconfirming evidence before finalizing beliefs or choices.
• Slow down decisions that feel time-pressured; allow a structured review step.
• Try formalizing key arguments or probability assessments for high-stakes matters.
• Complete the course-provided implicit-bias test and watch supplementary videos.