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Nov 20 2025 - Reengineering

Jan 3, 2026

Summary

  • Briefing focused on using the Daily Profiler and candle-sequence signals to improve war-gaming and trade execution.
  • Emphasis on statistical, conditional signals over trying to capture full moves.
  • Team Thursday presented findings about C1/C2/C3 candle behaviors and produced visuals and materials for learning.
  • Practical guidance given for live trading: use P12 and market-open interactions as checkpoints.

Action Items

  • (Immediate – All Boot Camp Members) Drop morning war-game projections and commentary in Friday's live trade chat.
  • (Next Boot Camp – Organizers) Prepare the planned integration between pack members and new boot camp cohort.
  • (Soon – Team Thursday) Share Canva visuals, slide deck, and notebook outputs with the cohort for review.
  • (Ongoing – All Members) Practice wargaming around 8:00–8:30 to build high/low day projections.

Daily Profiler / High-Low Day Guidance

  • Use the daily candle fluctuation as the target; wicks (upper/lower) are primary distribution clues.
  • Conditional statistics identify when a specific wick/time combination increases probability of high/low of day.
  • If distributions (high/low day boxes) were not touched overnight, treat the market as having budget left for retracement.
  • The Daily Profiler can show which session prints (e.g., Asia, London) increase probability of specific outcomes.
CheckpointSignalInterpretation
P12 MidPrice finds footing on P12 midBullish acceptance; next target P12 High
P12 High / New York One HighClose above C1 high or P12 highPotential continuation or outside-time true/false decision
C2 OpenC2 open location relative to priceActs as a pivot; C3 above C2 open = continuation likely
Market Open (9:30 RTH)Close above/below openObjective acceptance above (bullish) or below (bearish)

Candle-Sequence (C1/C2/C3) Findings

  • C2 close above C1 high yields the highest continuation probability (~81–82%).
  • When C1 is a red candle, continuation probability increases further (about +9% vs bullish C1).
  • If C2 is red, C3 often forms as an inside bar within C2’s range.
  • The C2 open is a critical, previously underused confirmation point for breakout/reversal decisions.

Live Price Execution Rules / War-Gaming Tips

  • Start building war-games around 08:00–08:30 for morning session readiness.
  • Accept β€œenough” on trades: capture part of the expected move rather than trying to catch extremes.
  • Use P12 handshake: acceptance below market open plus acceptance below P12 mid = strong downside confirmation.
  • Combine time and price: even if time windows miss, price touching distribution (or not) alters expectations.
  • For trade checkpoints: after accepting below market open, first realistic price checkpoint is P12 (or New York One low).

Team Thursday Work / Learning Resources

  • Team created visuals in Canva to illustrate candle-science combinations and variables.
  • Ran analysis through Notebook AI, produced slides/videos for easier learning.
  • Materials include visuals, slides, and short videos to help members unfamiliar with candle science.

Decisions

  • Continue emphasizing Daily Profiler and war-gaming in phase two.
  • Merge pack and boot camp members during Friday live trade sessions for practical application.
  • Maintain the three-phase boot camp structure; upcoming boot camp will include a pack-integrated feature.

Open Questions

  • Are the shared Canva and notebook resources posted to a central place for all cohort members?
  • What exact schedule and format will the upcoming pack-integrated boot camp feature follow?
  • Any additional statistics requested specifically for the 9:30 RTH open to be added to Candle Science page?