Totality of Data: Signs of economic slowdown and loss of momentum.
Interest Rates: Discussion on the appropriateness of reducing interest rates soon.
Observation: Economy is slowing faster than expected by economists and the Fed.
Economy Status:
Few buffers left (personal savings, debt capacity)
Forward-looking Fed might consider a July rate cut.
Fed's Potential Actions
July Meeting:
Is it being considered a 'live' meeting?
Market uncertainty about July cut.
September Rate Cut Probability:
Less than 50% probability according to market.
Recent Fed narrative suggests skepticism about a cut even in September.
End of Year Rate Increase:
Some officials keep the possibility of a hike open.
Contrasts with economic data.
Market and Fed Dynamics
Data Dependency: Fed remains excessively dependent on historical data.
Burns from Past: Fed's cautious approach influenced by past experiences.
Conclusion
There is a discrepancy between what the Fed might consider and what they should ideally do based on economic data. They are being cautious due to being burned in the past and their data dependency.