Transcript for:
Stock Market Analysis and Strategies

But I will say that again. The only reason why you're not living the life that you actually want to live is because you, day by day, keep on feeding the life that you don't want to live. The absolute only reason why you're not living the life that you want to live is because you are feeding the life that you do not want to live. And some would say, but Josh, what do I do? How do I get off of this path?

I'm going to tell you it is for sure. The answer is gaining the knowledge to live a different life. Once you know what to do, nobody can ever take that away from you. Now, the path that I've chosen was to become more knowledgeable about reading the charts.

That was the foundation that I... to become a better trader. There is so much free knowledge.

I'm giving away free knowledge. You can find free knowledge on a multitude of trading concepts on YouTube, and you can gain the power to change your actions change your trading habits. I actually lay out my disciplines almost every video trade the trend, use a stop loss, control position size and don't revenge trade.

Now today was a very choppy day in the market. The spy in particular was whipsawing giving opportunities both to the upside and to the downside for anybody who wanted to jump on. But if you were thinking that it was a buy and hold situation and the market was going to choose a path one way or the other, it hasn't done it yet. Now, I also want to outline regarding the Magnificent 7 once we get into that heat map and you see that it's a sea of green. The fact is that we're going up today on lower volume.

Let me give you guys the cold hard facts. The Spy is up today $5 on negative 37% volume. Nvidia is up $5 on negative 42% volume.

Apple up under a dollar on negative 27% volume. Google's up $4 on negative 29% volume. Amazon up 96 cents on negative 15% volume.

Meta up $11, which is pretty big, up on negative 22% volume. Microsoft up $6 on negative 39% volume. Now the only outlier out of the group is Tesla, which is up $12 on positive up volume of 15%.

But I want to just give you guys those technicals. to remind you that the perfect trifecta of a bull move, a true bull market is going to have a price move up with higher volume and greater momentum. Now, right now, we are actually just bouncing off of a pretty large pullback. And so there's really no great entries or opportunities to go short because from the perspective of the bears that want to profit, we've already come down a lot.

And so now's not the time to go short. You should have been going short. short when the market was at all-time highs.

And from the perspective of the bulls, yes, we've gone up a little bit, but where's the volume and where's the momentum? And so the markets will remain choppy and they'll remain news-driven. Now, this week, we've got a couple big news events, and that's going to be Tesla's earnings and Google's earnings. And the Magnificent Seven will react to both of these companies.

Now, if we're looking at Tesla, the fact is, if we're purely looking at it as an EV company... manufacturer, then it's not going to be a great story. The only way they're going to thrive in tomorrow's earnings is as a technology company. And everybody is hungry and thirsty for automated driving because that's the news that kicked off the run-up that we're currently enjoying. And so if we can get some more news on automated driving and robo taxis, then the stock will fly.

Now, I'm going to take you guys into that chart in just a minute. We're also going to look at what could possibly move Google. And then I'm going to give you guys a company that is going to be benefiting off of the bad news that CrowdStrike experienced with the technology failure that's affected millions globally.

There is a company that's benefiting off of CrowdStrike not doing well. And rather than trying to catch the bottom on CrowdStrike, I would challenge you to go look at this stock. I'm going to share that with you guys as well today. This is the Stocks with Josh show.

In just a couple hours, I'm going to be catching a flight to Tennessee to attend the Bitcoin conference where Donald Trump will be speaking. RFK will be speaking. I will come back and let you know if there's any newsworthy events that are going to come out of that event.

But the fact is Bitcoin's doing very well, but it's getting also very close to its high end target. It really has to get above 72K for a bigger move to occur rather than for it just to make another lower high. That's a concern because if we make a lower high, then the trend is confirmed in decline.

and then we could go on to make a lower low. But at the moment, Bitcoin's been leading bullishness as a shining star. Tomorrow's video, Technical Tuesdays with Tim, we're going to do a deep dive on Bitcoin and crypto and let you guys know what we see happening in the days ahead.

Now, this morning I did live trading over on the Discord, the Stocks with Josh Discord. That's the ChartGoat University, and we were able to catch a beautiful 40% profit on half of my position and 60% profit on the rest on the SPY puts. Now, the fact is, the minute those were cashed out, you could have rode calls back up. for another 60 or 100 percent and then later in the day road them back down again there was a ton of opportunity in the market but not for any buy and hold strategies at the moment they're all neutral entries believe it or not like I said the bulls and the bears both have problems with the direction of this market which hasn't been established yet so be careful control your position size and use a stop-loss I had a trade last week on Amazon and I didn't keep my stop loss and I regret it because that trade left me down.

And that's why I'm constantly reminded to embrace those disciplines each and every day to make more money. It's the opportunity to make more money because guys, as I said, the market will give you new opportunities every day. So you don't want to make mistakes that are tied into yesterday.

You want to be looking forward. You want to be feeding that future trade, just like she said at the beginning, don't feed the past. Don't double down on something that's not winning. Double down on something that's winning and hold your winners longer.

Okay. All right. Let's just go over a couple news events I wanted to touch on. Obviously, Biden's stepping down. I called that on my Friday video, predicting that that news would be released Sunday and it would impact the markets.

And it absolutely did. We saw that stocks were recovering this morning from last Friday's global IT outage. We saw that CrowdStrike is the stock taking a beating.

Microsoft up today. CrowdStrike down an a**hole. additional 10% when they were down over 10% on Friday. Who is going to benefit from that? Well, their number one competitor, Pan W, one of Nancy's plays.

Could Nancy have foreseen any of this? Who knows what she can see in her crystal ball, but I'm going to dive into the Pan W chart and show you where I see opportunity there. We also had stocks rising today on the fact that China cut their rates negative 10 basis points. So what does that tell us?

It means that the global economy is slowing down, which ultimately means that we could have a round of bad earnings in the future, which means that stocks can come down from here. Even though we may not be done with the bull run of 2024, we are now getting that data confirming a slowdown. You know that all these American companies are globally dependent on sales in China, and China's telling us that they're going to have to boost the economy by easing their monetary policy because they've got signs. that things are slowing down.

Guys, if you want to change your future and you need to feed a different you, we're dropping education every day. And it's not just me. I've got great guys over there.

By Lord, a.k.a. Pudding16 gave great trades on the spy after I had to get off to make this video, as well as I want to give an acknowledgement to Sniper. I just want to thank you, Sniper, for doing a great job and answering questions for people and helping them along on their trading journey. Guys, if you need to feed a better trading journey, you can do it at ChartGoat University. That's the Stocks with Josh Discord.

I'm going to leave a link in the top pinned comment. All right, let's look at some charts. We're going to cover the companies that are reporting earnings this week, tomorrow, Tesla and Google, and then that Pan-W. Let's dive into those charts.

But let's take a quick look at what's going on in the SPY chart. And here's what I want to show you a couple things about the SPY chart. Update. But look at this MACD pointing down.

It doesn't mean that it can't curl up, but it's not. up at the moment, which means that there should be a degree of caution. No differently than when we had this up day here, that was the beginning of a major fall. Now, the other thing I want to point out to you guys is that on almost all of the big tech stocks, I see a head and shoulders forming, right?

So even though we could get higher on the SPY, I think that we've got to be watching it very carefully because if we end up coming back right away to the 550 level. On the SPY, then we've got reasons to be concerned about a bigger breakdown. Now, where does that breakdown get confirmed?

Guys, you get everything here. At least you get my trade plan. You get my TA.

547.90 or 548. If we open and close a candle beneath that level, then we are definitely having a confirmed breakdown. Head and shoulders bearish move on the SPY. Let's go check out Google.

Guys, now Google, very interesting chart. Now, let's just be very clear. Today, the bulls are in charge. We're in the top layer of a bearish ascending channel. This will eventually break to the downside, but it could go back to the very top of the channel.

Now, when we get more concern would be this break beneath 180. And I'm going to keep it very simple because this This TA is going to work for today, tomorrow, and the day after. It's that 180 level. That's the line in the sand. If after tomorrow's earnings, we can close the following day above 180, then there's a strong chance that we're going to push back up to our recent high of 191. But if we end up closing beneath 180, then we're on high alert because we are going to make those traditional touches two on the top and potentially two on the bottom.

For Google and the area where I would say that you should be watching would be around $171 for a reversal because that is a pivot low. Let's quickly take a look at the Tesla chart. And I've got the weekly time frame up here. And here's what's important because somebody asked me, Josh, why do you keep talking about this $253 price and why it's so important? Well, we have the answer right here, guys.

We've got to go back in time. The biggest concern I've got for Tesla is neckline at $253. We've had a beautiful cup forming from our low back to 253. I'm concerned that if we get rejected tomorrow and don't get a candle to close on the weekly above 253, that we're going to end up making a cup and handle with the possibility of coming back to 225 before we get stronger support back up to 253. It's only when we can close a weekly candle above 253 that the 300 price range comes back into view.

Now, let's just go over a couple things. And, you know, if my drawing on the chart was funny, you just got to look past that. So here's why 253 is so important.

You know, a trend is broken when we can make a higher high. And that's going to be determined by the candle close, not the candle wick. The wick doesn't mean anything.

Now, 253 is the highest high that we had before we broke down all the way to 140. So we couldn't break it here. That week we couldn't break it here. We couldn't break it here.

And after three weeks in a row at 253, we ultimately had this price collapse. Now here we are. Now in recent days, we closed right underneath 253. We failed 253 here. We failed 253 here. Now we're in week three.

Very similar situation to what we had here. And we are either going to close this week above 253, bringing that 300 into focus, Or we're going to make another move up, get rejected by Thursday and Friday, be back beneath 253 and have to come and make the handle to that cup with a move back to at least 222, 225 before we can get bullish again. You guys have to know that it's not that I'm not bullish on Tesla.

I also want to point out that Elon Musk updated his... profile picture on X with laser eyes and some took that as a possible signal that he had some Very bullish news to drop on Tesla. I'm going to follow the Tesla chart. I'm not going to try to get ahead of it.

I was encouraged by Elon boldly putting that laser eye picture out, possibly signaling the market that he's got an update that people are going to like. And I would say not to underestimate Tesla right now. Haven't sold any of my shares.

And here's one of the more positive notes that I'll leave you with for a possible breakup all the way to 300, which is that stocks have waves. of bullishness. And right now we're seeing a number of bullish indicators align for Tesla to go higher tomorrow.

Price is moving up correctly. 253 is our price point that we have to watch. As I indicated at the beginning of the show, volume is up with price.

Now we have to break over some of the previous momentum levels so that we can get all three in alignment, right? And even if we make a higher low on momentum, we can definitely make a higher price tomorrow. And so I am optimistic going into Tesla's earnings tomorrow.

But overall, overall, I want you to know that the charts on big tech are neutral. Volume and momentum are simply not there for us to have the trifecta of bullishness. But we can continue to climb.

But as we climb, you have to know that I'm going to be watching those head and shoulder patterns that appear to be on almost all of the charts. That we won't get rejection on that right shoulder and have to come back to the neckline and give us the next. next leg down, which could be, if you take a big step back on the overall market, be getting us that 6% correction that I've told you that once we hit 260, that we kind of might need to book before moving higher. Guys, August could be a challenging month. We're going to have to see how it plays out.

It already has seen a pullback here in July before we've gotten into August. So we're just going to take it one day at a time. Guys, I'm going to be heading out to catch a plane real soon.

If you liked the video. please hit the like and subscribe and make sure you get the next video appreciate each and every one of you guys peace and blessings we'll talk to you again soon in the discord stock squad and stocks with josh chart goat university check out the links i'll leave them in the top 10 comment take care Thank you.