Geopolitical Insights and ASEAN's Role

Aug 22, 2024

Lecture Notes: Geopolitical Insights by Professor Kishore Mabubani

Key Themes

  • Paradoxical Truths
    • "If you want to enjoy peace, prepare for war."
    • Western pessimism vs. Asian optimism.

ASEAN's Centrality

  • Concerns regarding Western influence creating an "angry dragon" in the region.
  • Geopolitical Competence:
    • Peace reflects competence in diplomacy.
    • Current wars (e.g., Ukraine, Gaza) reflect geopolitical incompetence.
  • Hope for incoming Indonesian leadership to strengthen ASEAN's centrality.

Recent Global Changes

  • Major Conflicts:
    • Ukraine and Gaza wars as surprises with underlying structural forces.
    • U.S.-China tensions worsening over the next decade.
  • Southeast Asia showing resilience despite challenges.

U.S. Foreign Policy Critique

  • Ukraine War:
    • Seen as a disaster resulting from European incompetence.
    • U.S. benefits from European dependency for security.
  • Gaza Conflict:
    • Decreases U.S. standing and raises questions about moral obligations.
    • Calls for strategic long-term thinking in Israeli and U.S. policies.

Israel-Palestine Dynamics

  • Current policies threaten a two-state solution.
  • Long-term survival of Israel may require cooperation with nations recognizing Palestine.
  • Emphasis on the necessity of strategic calculations in a multipolar world.

Multilateralism and the Future

  • Importance of multilateral institutions like the UN for global governance.
  • Need for the U.S. to recognize the importance of these institutions in a changing world.
  • Push for reform in the UN Security Council to reflect current global powers.

Security Expenditure vs. Multilateral Institutions

  • Military Spending:
    • High defense budgets do not guarantee peace.
  • The need for wise long-term strategic leaders to manage global challenges.

The Future of U.S.-China Relations

  • Current U.S. policy appears to be counterproductive, risking escalation with China.
  • Calls for engagement rather than containment.

Taiwan Issue

  • Viewed as an internal Chinese issue rather than an international one.
  • Importance of maintaining the one-China policy to ensure stability.

ASEAN's Role in Global Order

  • ASEAN as a model of stability and cooperation in a diverse region.
  • Need to market ASEAN's success to the world, particularly as Indonesia takes leadership.

Final Thoughts

  • Emphasis on projecting Asian optimism in contrast to Western pessimism.
  • Recognition of ASEAN's contributions to peace and stability in Southeast Asia.
  • Encouragement for Southeast Asians to engage with global narratives.