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Geopolitical Insights and ASEAN's Role
Aug 22, 2024
Lecture Notes: Geopolitical Insights by Professor Kishore Mabubani
Key Themes
Paradoxical Truths
"If you want to enjoy peace, prepare for war."
Western pessimism vs. Asian optimism.
ASEAN's Centrality
Concerns regarding Western influence creating an "angry dragon" in the region.
Geopolitical Competence
:
Peace reflects competence in diplomacy.
Current wars (e.g., Ukraine, Gaza) reflect geopolitical incompetence.
Hope for incoming Indonesian leadership to strengthen ASEAN's centrality.
Recent Global Changes
Major Conflicts
:
Ukraine and Gaza wars as surprises with underlying structural forces.
U.S.-China tensions worsening over the next decade.
Southeast Asia showing resilience despite challenges.
U.S. Foreign Policy Critique
Ukraine War
:
Seen as a disaster resulting from European incompetence.
U.S. benefits from European dependency for security.
Gaza Conflict
:
Decreases U.S. standing and raises questions about moral obligations.
Calls for strategic long-term thinking in Israeli and U.S. policies.
Israel-Palestine Dynamics
Current policies threaten a two-state solution.
Long-term survival of Israel may require cooperation with nations recognizing Palestine.
Emphasis on the necessity of strategic calculations in a multipolar world.
Multilateralism and the Future
Importance of multilateral institutions like the UN for global governance.
Need for the U.S. to recognize the importance of these institutions in a changing world.
Push for reform in the UN Security Council to reflect current global powers.
Security Expenditure vs. Multilateral Institutions
Military Spending
:
High defense budgets do not guarantee peace.
The need for wise long-term strategic leaders to manage global challenges.
The Future of U.S.-China Relations
Current U.S. policy appears to be counterproductive, risking escalation with China.
Calls for engagement rather than containment.
Taiwan Issue
Viewed as an internal Chinese issue rather than an international one.
Importance of maintaining the one-China policy to ensure stability.
ASEAN's Role in Global Order
ASEAN as a model of stability and cooperation in a diverse region.
Need to market ASEAN's success to the world, particularly as Indonesia takes leadership.
Final Thoughts
Emphasis on projecting Asian optimism in contrast to Western pessimism.
Recognition of ASEAN's contributions to peace and stability in Southeast Asia.
Encouragement for Southeast Asians to engage with global narratives.
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