Lecture Notes: Strategic Situation Analysis

Key Points

Overall Strategic Situation

• Social-Democracy Decline
  • Social-democracy is in an “interminable agony”
  • Compromise with capital is no longer viable due to radicalization of capital (neoliberal globalization)
  • Economic and structural factors ensure social-democracy’s failure and political impasse
• Rise of Fascism
  • Fascist elements in France gaining power as a consequence of social-democracy’s failure
  • No viable alternative perspectives making fascism hard to resist

Social-Democracy's End

• No More Compromises
  • Capital’s radical shift closes any space for compromise
  • Experiences labeled as social-democratic inevitably fail due to neoliberal attractors
• Electoral Successes Deepen Political Impasse
  • Even electoral wins do not translate to political successes
  • Attempts at fresh leadership (e.g., Tobira, Tondelier, Rufin, Glucksmann) result in stagnation and demoralization

Political Instability

• Unstable Political Structure
  • Current government set up is unstable; Front populaire government lifespan is expected to be short
• Possible Constitutional Reform
  • Macron might establish a committee to propose a new Constitution if political deadlock is reached
  • Referendum and new presidential elections could follow

Obstacles and Anti-Opposition Tactics

• Burden of Zombie Social-Democracy
  • Social-democracy, though in decline, is propped up by bourgeois democratic institutions, hindering new movements or shifts
• Fate of Opposition
  • Example: Treatment of “La France Insoumise” (LFI)
  • Widespread campaign to label LFI as anti-Semitic to discredit it
  • Attack on any genuine opposition by media and institutional fronts

Identifying the Real Threat

• Media and Capitalist State
  • Mainstream media and state media label real opposition as enemies
  • Campaigns similar to those unseen since 1945 to dismantle significant opposition parties
  • The goal should be to dismantle the capitalist and state media complex

Power and Conflict

• Class Conflict
  • Current situation heightened class conflict
  • Opposition must understand the power in class unity and logistics
• Rise of Fascism Forecasting
  • Reiterated that the regression of the RN (National Rally) is temporary
  • Future strategy to prepare against possible fascist power

Leveraging Power

• Where is the Power?
  • Hypothetical fascist regime would result in almost everyone being powerless
  • Repression and prohibitive militant action
• Sector-specific Struggles
  • Individual sector protests (e.g., education, healthcare) won’t be effective
  • Focus on logistic power (transport, energy) which can disrupt the economy

Revolutionary Outlook

• Creating Effective Strikes
  • General strike, particularly logistics, as the core of the revolutionary strategy
  • Need for class unification and support for the workers' strikes
• Limitations of Electoral Promises
  • Electoral efforts likely to offer minimal to no significant changes
  • Proposes articulations between electoral and non-electoral efforts

Conclusion

• Future Outlook
  • Social-democracy leads to fascism under current conditions
  • Bourgeois appeasement equates to maintaining the status quo
  • Advocates for revolutionary action beyond traditional democratic engagements