Transcript for:
Good News Wednesday with Brian Wong

I'm excited we have got Brian Wong coming on tonight to help us with good news Tuesday Wednesday what is the day anyway good news Wednesday Brian thrilled to have you aboard thrilled to be here a lot of good news a lot of good news oh my gosh we did it again what is going on with the market that's what we're gonna talk about today because they've already got Larry's opinion and they got Nicholas's opinion and they got uh uh they got know Bradford's opinion and Met's but let let's opinion everybody's opinion but now we'll get yours too I'm really going to be excited to hear what you think and the heck is going on here well let me start with this AJ says just a gentle reminder Elon said in April we've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models we expect it to be more like the early 2025 if not late this year where in July we will see leaks of prototypes several months before the vehicle launch it's virtually impossible to do Road testing without someone somewhere taking pictures that suggests that we are at most a few months away from leaks of the new models no doubt this no doubt this is a topic which will reoccur in this uh second quarter call in three weeks people will be asking about these three new cars Tesla will likely keep comments very brief to avoid any osbor however the Cyber cab the Gen this is now me talking not not uh AJ the Cyber cab the Gen 2.5 and the Juniper are all due in late 24 or early 25 that's just six months this has to be part of the runup don't you think um I think the the fact that energy came through I think it's it's stying to change people's minds that the other Stu will come through as well the cars will come through and that the AI will come through as well I think it's shifted the the belief back to Tesla and Elon can execute and so and so we think of we always think of markets I know you're a big studier of the markets because you are a scientist after all and scient love to dig into those numbers and we we know that the markets typically are looking six months out so three months ago they probably weren't paying a lot of attention to Elon musk's statement about these cars that are coming out at the end of the year or early next year but now we are exactly six months out and I think it's a very high likelihood that the 2.5 makes it by the end of the year maybe slides into early January and then the Juniper I keep hoping it'll come out sooner because I think it's being osbor right now by the model 3 and the cybertruck so um what do you think do you think that the do you think that much of this increase over the last few days had anything to do with us now being six months away from those three cars I don't think the analysts most the analyst most of the the funds are that um precisely calculating I think it was more a matter of that they just didn't believe it that so much you know just like some of us on on the bull side where you know like execution hasn't been quite quite onto to point you know yes they're doing some things but the in terms of like totally blowing away expectations that kind of like Tesla is totally killing it thing has B been that that two years ago right um You Know M 3 was was great um the the getting that launched in China was hand perfectly but what was really different on Tuesday morning was that Tesla energy went 132% from q1 to Q2 so I really blowing away all the Bulls everyone is kind of like the Tesla magic is back right and that there were already people saying Tesla's to beaten down so the already that was story that was flipping but the the Turn Around from it's to beaten down to and is now going to start surprising on the upside that even if you know the FSD is coming out there so it's 12.4.2 is releasing so people seeing it's happening a couple months slow the aim small small Miss small aim for for April May and then I hit it in in June July so not like I'm I'm aiming for next year you know but so they're aiming for for the cars for q1 next year maybe comes in early maybe comes in late but the my plus minus is only 3% I think uh three months three months right right so I think that is what's changing things all right so let's talk about energy because definitely this is not becoming part of the conversation I want to do a little bit of a a little history here so back in uh November of 2022 you were part of the team that wrote the Elon Musk mission one of the authors and one of the things that you and I were talking a ton about was the energy proposition in fact the books big breaking news the thing that we were holding back making a decision about what day we were going to break the book was because we were going to break leth nobody was talking about LR we were basically saying hey there's this there's this facility in LR that's going to matter right so we broke that news back in November 2022 then you and I did all kinds oh we had so many programs that we did where we talked about you know uh how many how many bajillions of gigawatt hours uh these plants were going to start producing because they were going to pop up everywhere but to your point it's been slower than expected now all the and and also everybody said we agreed that the street wasn't going to pay any attention until it was around 10% right so Tuesday it's now more than 10% right 15% 15 20 right yeah it's a big deal we have a second plant under construction the plant in leup is running 70 80% of capacity um the numbers are starting to become uh significant um so your your thesis I think right now is that this is maybe one of the major reasons that we saw this big runup is actually the energy part of it right that um I I assume that that the analyst have some confidence and when it goes over 10% they say okay I got dig in and do the work they do the work and they realize not only is it 15 to 20% this quarter but that it can be if if the if I'm negative about the car stuff then energy could be 50% 80% even even equal to to cars next year and the growth on it will be easier the capital investment is like 400 million per plant instead of like10 billion all in for for a full up car plant and it's they build a lot faster it was built in a um old Target store in in um in l so these are tiny buildings and then easy to expand like two lines there they could you know back when we popped up um um the the tent for the mall 3 you know they could do that and start you know if there's a need for for you know energy they could you know totally just make that go crazy so easy to to to expand it and if the the ball necks clearly have been broadly removed otherwise you don't go from like four to 9.4 right you don't go like up 1.3 in one quarter and I don't think that you got all of your gain in three months and then like oh I'm I'm scaling up now everything happened that three months now we're flat again it's like you're gonna keep going for a while so I think that that getting to 12 uh gaws in in a quarter is totally doable and I would not be surprised if you get the 16 even you know more by the end of end of Q4 right even without the the Shanghai Factory I think just LEP and power walls which you know out of Nevada right right yeah and uh so um uh the other thing that we talk about in the book I believe it was in the book if it wasn't it was shortly after on this program we we in fact even Warren uh redlick was involved in this conversation um because Warren kept doing his back of the napkin math and saying well it'll be you know a trillion business by the end of the decade and I said Warren the prices are going to come down the costs of these units are going to come down you've got to take that into consideration and so we start we put that into our numbers and we said look and so now but everybody's surprised because they don't listen to us yeah that's right so the price is coming down radically right now right price is coming down but the the the energy markets are huge right and unlike um the cars where it could be the prices come down there's delay in in the volume Tam increasing I think there'll be less delay on on the energy side like if if the prices come down in half like they have for the mega pack then they're displacing the um the natural gas peer plant other stuff like that so then there's a huge availability just like solar when it came down 10 times in price it it went up like 100 times, times in volume right right so so long as you have your margin there and you and the increases you know will more than offset the drop in price right so which goes to that the gig walls will keep increasing yeah so so I I have to admit that in the very beginning when I saw the prices coming down um this early I thought why is Tesla even doing that they've got to be Supply constrained um and so you think that you could just grab some margins but then I thought about it for about five minutes more now I have been been a buyer of large amounts of raw materials and I have been a seller of large amounts of product to people to the US Army to uh to the US government to Target and Kmart and Etc and when you're in that situation and you go in and the buyer says but your raw material cost is in half it's not like you can say well too bad I'm taking the profit these guys go well then we'll wait or we'll try the other guy or we'll consider something else um and so even though there's a huge tamam and they a supply constrained um I think what happens is the these are buyers that they want to have a relationship with for the next 50 years um and so they're they're adjusting their pricing on the Fly uh in order to uh you know based on what the raw material cost costs are and the thing is for for them you know they are also buyers of batteries and stuff and saying no okay yeah I got passing on through because I would expect it yeah I'm going to I'm going to behave the same way so then and then they know that volume will increase just like they will make more cars make more other things when the prices come down yeah and and hopefully the you know the availability of of cars like when we get down to that 25k car when the average ice car is up at you know 50k you know the the differential will be too much it' be like I'm just a fool for not buying that cheaper car you know I could buy a used car at 10K or I could buy completely new EV at 25k the the flip to is the obvious choice you know is there just like um for products like you know I don't know big screen TVs phones cell phones like it's it just the the price signal becomes um unambiguous exactly so Bradford Ferguson says that the current runup is at least partially due to the fact that we're now at a bottom for Tesla bottom in terms of their production bottom in terms of their sales and that now people expect this to to start going up from the very bottom and he says that if you look over history companies that are at that bottom the PE goes up dramatically when they're at the bottom so having an 0 or a 90 or 100 PE for Tesla right now shouldn't be shocking because the next wave is now being priced in and you and Larry by the way Larry Goldberg thought that was a brilliant analysis by Bradford what do you think um yeah so so the the stock wasn't beaten down as much as it it could have been if it was purely based on that Cory number if people didn't think that it's bad but it's temporary some kind of temporary right and you're still making money still profit profitable then it's going to come back so thus it it didn't go down as far as just a pure numbers thing would have been because there is more than just this one quarter one one year it's like I'm that discounted cast over 10 years that they said okay it's it's G to come back in some form although their um still negativity in terms of like how much it could grow is still in the show me phase because there's still people with um 3 million cars out in in 2030 kind of land right right right right right so I've been saying I've been before the you know as the the first day let's call it like Friday night and over the weekend I'm saying okay this is fomo H fomo for 88 primarily um Ryan and others agree that it's fomo that everybody's got their eyeballs wanting to know what's going to happen on 88 they don't want to be left behind um and the uh the whole situation between now and 88 uh we're going to be getting hints we're going to be seeing level we're going to seeing 12.4.2 we're GNA be maybe seeing 12.5 uh we might start to see some other things being said in terms of when 126 might be out or whatever so as we get closer and closer to 88 then we're going to see more and more of this fomo um do you think a bunch of what's going on in the price espec oh and then I said if it keeps going up after 220 we will know that it's fomo now I I think it's fomo for for the retail investors right but also you know some other retail not other one who URS already in but the the new ones but also for the um um the fund manager side it's that um their incentive is is to beat the indexes right so so then the the fomo is not just because of that it's that they have to they're incentivized to chase the thing right that if it's going up then they say okay I have to be in it especially if I think it's GNA keep keep going and then the other thing would be that some of them are very sophisticated have a lot of information have sources yeah right so just like you know we may not have heard the 9.4 gwatt hour number that that would be known within 100 employees Tesla there would be people in the supply chain Who would know yeah so you know people like Bradford Ferguson who does the work and then publishes it but there's other Brads who are more quiet yes managing their thing right so they would do the work and they would say oh I I see this is going to happen so thus I can comfortably lay down $700 million in calls yeah order and there had been call order flow happening huge huge call order right so that is someone who's making that bet would try to eliminate all um uh gey yeah right they would say okay I'm gonna make for sure so you know when as we lead up to 88 there is information out there uh from people who willing do the work and and and get have sources to know what's really happening 8 what's already going to happen on ear call what already is going to happen on possible deals and other things like if if a China Company actually thinking about doing it right doing a licensing deal right what a team of like 12 people within the company might know you have their founder and then some other people on the team right so this information is getting out there and people willing to make billions of dollars on it would pay hey $10 million to get that piece of information to me you know so so you know not perfect markets it's it's people are working on it with better information than we have and that goes to the whole theory of why people are following the price action because they're saying when they do make the move it's indicating in the price action and that it's uh it's not uh irrational price action per se right right well so so one thing that just occurred to me a little bit is um a bunch of fund managers and a bunch of analysts just mixed maybe I guess the biggest run in history this Nvidia it was the biggest run in history right two trillion dollars in like six months or something right I mean holy mackerel so could those folks be sitting there going I don't want to miss the next one I'm gonna look like an idiot I just missed this one how can I possibly miss the next one and at least there's let's just say that there's a few smart guys out L like they're like Baron and Kathy woods and others who are not just little YouTubers like us they're well-known sophisticated folks out there that people trust more than us um that they might go well this looks like it could be the biggest deal ever beating inidia I better get on board yeah so traveling Trader is a YouTuber uh who you know he has a, people following him that and he was he was early in you know as was 140 something that he said okay gota buy that he he ran the Nvidia one all the way up and then he started saying okay he needed to start rotating out of Nvidia so there is a rotation out of Nvidia as we see a drop from like 1250 you know 135 down to 1 120 or something like that and is probably G to go back up again but there is a bit of rotation out in order to redeploy and Tesla was one to one it's like which one has not had his AI run right of the big company they do recognize they have good technology not like Tesla and Elon are no good right so so he indicating that he said that to many people it's not secret you know anyone who's doing some research would say okay yeah that's a reasonable case that that would happen and there's I think other professionals who think like that yeah who think that okay I gotta if it's run up it's not like okay I I can keep running it higher and higher the risk goes up as the price goes up and then what's on a discount and clearly Tesla's been on discount so some of the Tesla on a discount it shouldn't be beaten out so much were past certain um Delaware things like it's still kind of hanging out there but not really so um so that shift I think is is is happening so some of those very same smart people Kathy Wood um niion others um who are you know have been talking about Optimus I mean been talking about uh uh the robotaxi for quite a long time and and putting numbers on it um but they're not putting anything out there for Optimus yet it drives me nuts same book Elon Musk Mission which we both uh helped to put together we talked about the this is November of 2022 we're putting out numbers we're giving s recommendations and suggestions two months three months after that I have Scott Walter on my channel and he and I are trying to figure out what we think the cost will be and Scott's saying $7 to $110,000 that was on my Channel first that was right here we're so far ahead on this stuff and so now we know it's going to be 10,000 in scale we know that it's going to rent first um so why if we now know it's going to be 10,000 at scale it's going to rent probably probably going to be close to the number he he seems to think that CERN Basher was correct at 60,000 70,000 a year which is what I 12 months ago you can look this up people can go back to my channel and look at the look at the videos that Scott and I did I said it'll be probably about six OR7 thousand a month um so um if that's happening and we start to have some numbers for it and Elon says he thinks he's going to make a 100 million of them in 2030 wouldn't that cause the stock I mean if anybody that actually believes that I can't I just don't understand I think I think that they can build a position but in term of like um the risk management thing so the um guy who's running a $400 million fund for in Montreal who's been on Herbert's Channel he was saying yeah that they can see yeah that scenario can happen but that they can't allocate more than the 1% 2% whatever amount uh probability to it until there's more information and then even if it does do it be in this case because the the potential is so huge you know just like that they would have to do it at unfold like like right now Nvidia the case could be made that it could you know already been been producing kicking off all kind of cash and then they're having doubts about how long it can keep going right so so they don't want to because you know just based upon pure cash generated you know like a hundred billion dollar that and then doing a multiple of that they're you know 30 multiple is low based on the fact that they're still doubling every year right right it should be like a 100 right but so they're producing the cash producing the growth and then they still can't pull a trigger on it because well it be be $6 trillion dollar you know it's like you know versus three trillion or $9 trillion dollar that's what the the the number should be they have to let it stare step up you know like deliver every quarter they they have their position but they don't like overcommit to it because you they might don't get wiped out or or whatever their thing is okay so let me you know this is going to be a a little bit of a rabbit hole this is not what we do on this channel but I know a lot of the listeners to this channel are also invested in Nvidia like me I think that they're investing in Nvidia I'm not invested in Nvidia and the reason I'm not is because I don't know enough about it I don't know about enough about the industry but you and I have talked about this on our other channel on the uh next big future your Channel Next Big future um and so I know that you are you know this stuff backwards forward it inside out so what I I've asked you this before but I want to ask it a different way this time because somebody said the other day and it made sense to me if we don't start to see some kind of return on investment for Microsoft for Google for meta Etc go on down the line for these people that are putting 10 20 $50 billion dolls a year into these chips if they don't start showing some return on investment some return what they call roic return on investment invested Capital if we don't start seeing some big numbers they can't continue to buy these kind of chips because the stockholders will eventually revoke um possibly true but it's um far further down the line than than um people would think because how much did um U meta Facebook put into and still putting into metaverse you know like2 million a year absolutely nothing right getting absolutely nothing back but went down like 30% last year after a few years after a few years right and then they went and cut back so if they have more cash they have more cash then than those people think the other thing would be that um they are getting return on it right um open AI made a few billion dollars Microsoft putting it into into their products um you know like um office and other things um um meta Facebook putting it a search bar you know with a query keeping people on the um the the Instagram Facebook and stuff and so hitting more ads and doing more stuff so they are getting returns Nvidia in the last quarterly um uh shareholders um presentation or one of Jensen's presentations said that the h200 new new chip doing 24,000 tokens he made a calculation that when you run the open source meta Lama 3 on that and gave whatever assumptions there are but basically that you run that and you on h200 that you will get seven times the money over four years that you put in a dollar getting your h200 setting up the data center paying for the energy paying for the people you will get $7 back over four years so but you know is it like $2 in the first year $2 second2 then a dollar I don't know what the distribution is but they they give you know analysis of that that that that is profitable which um Al Capital Brad g bill Gurley they were six months ago they were saying um Google makes 15 times on their on their search so you put in $1 to do to to provide the service you get $15 back right over four years or whatever you know whatever assumptions are again all the assumptions are not publish could be like it'd be like 50 pages of like what what am I doing here so um but it's Prof but then they compared it to search at the time and it was like okay I put in 10 bucks and then um I only get back three so they're losing money yeah right and it was a broad range but now it's inv thing is profitable you know but you know the latest chip from grock may not be profitable other things might profit but basically they have line of sight to profitability starting for some this quarter and then depending on how they do it you know they can get get more so probity is going to happen th investment will continue um competition other things like who knows but it is possible to be profitable and so they you know they would always assume they' be the ones to to make their plans work and they'd be the one profitable let me give you one more um shot at what might have caused the stock to go up that people aren't talking about and that is the Biden meltdown uh in the debate uh pretty much well let's say increasing the betting odds increasing everything that you look at in terms of the likelihood of a trump Victory um in the fall um and that multiple multiple multiple uh analysts are saying that Trump Victory would be good for Tesla even if it might be bad for EVS it'll be good for Tesla because of course uh the current Administration ignores Tesla and Elon and uh and uh Trump has already be very kind uh comments about both Trump and uh I mean musk and Tesla so do you think that that again at the same time all this is happening at the same time do you think there's any chance that part of the runup is due to that change of uh of of administrations coming up I think definitely because on the night of the debate futures for the indexes went up so your only major news was the fact that that that debate was happening and then blind blowing up and the odds of trump were increasing and that improved uh the Futures and you know then everything starts moving again other other reasons start happening but the proximate indication was a trump Victory is positive for Tesla and for the indexes so yes that would be the case all right okay well let's go on to um the the general uh business uh situation right now the markets were really sanguin today they were not part they kind of sideways today even with this lackluster job report although bond yields CR crashed again after the big run up over the weekend then they've been coming down ever since since or I guess the end of last week and then they came down no they were still going up on Monday then they came down yesterday and today they're not back to where they were so are we headed into a soft Landing a recession what do you think's gonna happen in the next 30 I mean the next three months or six months what's what's G what do you think's gonna happen here um heading into a session would mean that I think that uh I would see would have to take a financial crisis that basically one of the banks blows up and they're under strain still and so a bank blows up a country currency some systems breaking the longer that we have the high rates the more chance of that happening is um it seems like we're getting lucky and we're getting through it that there was enough strength there to get us through it although there's stuff like um you know people's personal finances starting to break right you know more people getting repoed cars um more other other problems on affordability more more bankruptcies more credit card issues so it's not like a clean CL three months nothing can happen but the odds are if it's just three months we could get lucky that if we start but we need to start leaving soon like the fact that um that Drome Powell you know said again yes it looks like like we're back to 2.6% it look like inflation's back on a downward Trend want to take more time to figure it out this I think is the wrong move that that they should be saying that you know we've kept it too high too long putting too much on the stress system like we had Silicon Valley Bank First Republic you know other Banks blew up right because of their delay inflation only transitory thing you know the way they handled it you know like start too late ending ending too late I think they're there there's no need to roll the dice on this thing um so anyway so so the question of is is there my my I'm an optimist I think that hopefully we get through but if things start to break cutting things quickly a 1% cut or something like that again it'll be like too a little too late they'll be chasing it again that that if their their you know they their actions should have been before start raising rates earlier and they did not and then they end up chasing it and ring at 5% if you're going to oh it justess too late and you drop 3% it's again you've screwed up right you have to do some bailout thing quantitative eating it's a big mess when you're when you're be when you're behind this thing and I think that they're um the risks are waiting too long so I have to admit I promised my listeners that I would check on the Commodities um and find out what the heck happens this morning because the only thing besides bonds that the only thing besides bonds being up was that the that the precious metals and copper were all three up strongly this morning uh did you happen to see anything or was there anything that struck you about Commodities today um I have been been looking at it I would presume you what could move that would be um you know China or some other big company country doing particularly not as bad as as people feared um and then also the the slow pickup you know the the pickup in in you know AI data center Tech and other things like you know something you know moving that thing so I have not seeing specifically what that might be we did we did see that the oil um oil numbers have been EAS have been going up even though the LA most recent reports on oil were that there was uh more reserves than or more um more Supply than they thought in the United States but maybe somebody knew something that we didn't as you were pointing out earlier because the numbers dropped from matically today like 12 million barrels um so this was a big shock to the system um I'm with that kind of a drop and it was it was across the board big drop in oil big big drop in gasoline and big drop in derivatives um derivatives the other kindes yeah all the Futures across the board on all the fossil fuels um except for natural gas all the rest of them much lower uh supplies than people thought um going into summer so we could be seeing some strain next week um especially with a big hurricane season um uh speculated well you know things like weather you have been excessively hot so people could been running into air conditioners more um you know Industries may be be doing other things um vacation activity probably was coming in strong so I think various um um that kind of activity you know I think could um might be explain things yeah all right well so um we have one day left uh in this week uh and it'll be a probably a very lightly traded day um with everybody being on vacation um do you think that uh we've got but we have the the the uh employment numbers coming in everything indicates every single every single precursor to Friday would suggest that labor is now uh in trouble I mean that we've got um lower numbers from ADP than expected today we have um the numbers coming in from the uh from the manufacturing side again showing lower you know horrible numbers on the manufacturing side transportation is down housing is down housing starts I mean you just go across the board the only thing that's even doing halfway decent are services and even there we're seeing restaurants under some strain so do you think there's any possibility of a surprise on Friday um positive and negative um yeah that that goes to the fact that I don't like the fact that that we're that they're not being more proactive about it that they're they're waiting to the last minute to to do the you know to do the actions um I guess you know they being concerned about inflation reigniting is is a valid concern but that um they could take you know half percent or whatever off the table and then see what happens I think that would be the the better experiment to do than just I don't think holding in place is the right the right choice um as for jobs yeah I I think it's getting worse you know just my uh looking around that you know people eating out less that that will hit Services um the overall belt tightening that everyone's doing will reduce jobs that that the more people and the belt is also related to the whole interest rate thing that um interest payments are being up the inflation numbers that we have do not include interest payments in that that was a change made since sometime between the 70s 86 86 right so all these numbers you know you know when you're comparing it to the 70s or the 80s something like that are are off because you purposely change the numbers yes and and that means things are worse and people feel it worse you know the fact that they're living paycheck to paycheck or behind paycheck to paycheck you know I see articles talking about borrowing money to to to do um you know basic vacation activity right it's like the the wrong thing to do that they're forcing people into and so um I think that um starting to ease it instead of like doing something um crazy chasing it is is is what should be done so um I'm concerned about the numbers if it one the numbers are a bit faked but you know they they need to to fix that up so I'm still sitting on a 30% chance of recession in the third quarter part of that is because last year last year's third quarter was such a huge jump the GDP jumped like 5.3% or something in the third quarter that's really going to be hard to get over uh the third fourth quarter was a little smaller I think around three point something so that'll be easier but still not that easy so we could end end up with a technical recession for the third and fourth quarter which won't feel too much like a recession because maybe employment is still around 4.1 4.2 so that's kind of my scenario over the the next uh six months um but uh as you point out it wouldn't take much of a slip in any One Direction uh for all of a sudden that goes into the toilet right right so you know it's it's because the um the possible things going wrong look relatively small relative to the whole economy basically like starting the slide down in in a more Major Way um that that we don't know how the numbers play out I don't have any advanced indicators that would give me special insight into what it is I just have a you know the concern that you have you know that the the risk of recession is too high and that they need to um preemptively do some easing in order to reduce stress on the system um yeah and and and since we're since we've been doing this now for a long time and everybody's already gone I'm going to whisper it again I like recessions okay people who watch my channel know that from time to time I think recessions are necessary and good they're like going to the doctor and having the infection cleaned out from okay from time to time you just need to do that because there are people that are doing the wrong jobs and there are companies that shouldn't be in business and so once in a while you need to I think we've had rolling recessions yes you're right different Industries have been having their sessions things that being P like you know um manufacturing Transportation housing Tech are all in recession okay right right and and Tech has been in recession too so so and then also we had you know a recession like you like a year and a half two years ago that basically you know it was you know two negative quarters you know they they try to like re again redefine it and stuff like that so I think we've had really two recessions in the last four years right you know the co recession brief Sharp and then another one so um so we've had some and then the whole rolling recession thing so in terms of stuff being cleaned out you know PE you know Tech is totally retrenched um I I don't see where the excesses are yeah right because uh you know they're they're just um they're they're faking the numbers and indicators so I think we don't it's not like we've had 10 years or eight years of solid boom and everything going great and then we and we have bun of excesses right I think I think people been cutting back plenty and and so I don't I don't think that the the cleansing uh needs to happen I think that we could have you know two three years of a boom and then then have then have the recession yeah but I don't think it's needed yeah all right let's take a quick look at the numbers this is your first time on on this on this show obviously not on this show show but on this on uh the good news uh good news broadcast each night the last thing we do Brian as we go through the numbers so today we have Tesla up $15.13 at2 24639 and in the after hours up another two bucks yay so we might be looking at 260 on Friday it wouldn't shock me wouldn't shock me if we had a blowout either and and a lot of profit taking but we have a shot at 260 I really truly believe if we hit 260 we will see some retrenchment and certainly a lot of resistance to going over 260 and I'm not ready to make my third call on 300 I don't know if you know Brian my first call on 300 I hit it on the day it was only 29912 so some of my detractor says we did we don't we didn't actually get to 300 but I called it months weeks in advance that we'd be 300 and I even picked the day and it was the day so then the second time I missed it entirely I said be 300 by the end of last year we didn't that obviously didn't so I'm not quite ready to call my next 300 although I did say this morning that I thought we probably would be at 300 by 88 right um I'm more positive that we can get to 300 by 88 or or you know on or just shortly thereafter um and then we have to get there at some point if if we're gonna get to 700 like you're saying yeah Dow Jones was down 2390 the NASDAQ up 159 and the S&P up 28 and those percentages are the Dow was down 0.06% NASDAQ up 8888 I'm sorry and the S&P up 0.51 we have the Magnificent Seven all up except for Amazon who is down 1.21% um Nvidia finally turned around today up 4.57% making up for a lot of the losses of the last week and then the Kathy Woods were almost all up uh mostly up today so um good day for the Kathy Woods let's go ahead and look at what really happened on those bonds uh just a second here so the bonds down eight basis point 7.9 basis points um of course there's no pre-market today that'll be tomorrow night um so but far the day down 8.1 let's go ahead and see where that uh where the inversion every day we do the inversion we've been cracking these inversions Brian it's you know because this inversion is supposed to predict a recession and the real predictor is supposed to be when the inversion starts to contract again we've been contracting all week so the so let's look at them so the 10 year was down 81 uh B 8.1 I'm sorry basis points today the two-year was only down 3.1 basis points so now that makes that inversion pretty close to 3 five basis points that is around where it has been all year it went up to 50 it went down a couple of days ago to around then yesterday to around 30 now it's back up to that 35 so that's pretty much in the middle of where it's been all this year and then the two month which nobody people don't pay as much attention to but it's always fun to watch uh that was down 1.9 today it's at 5359 almost exactly like about 105 bases points uh and that has been as high as about 120 it was as low as 75 so it is now back up uh more towards the uh over 100 I always think is is pretty strong so the inversion is not collapsing yet okay do you follow that whole inversion thing at all if you I I understand it um yeah obviously I notice but I don't track it on a week to we day-to-day basis yeah we we do it twice a day here okay every morning and every night okay oil unchanged in oh unchanged for the day wow but Brent up 81 cents now that might be because do they trade it at different times anyway um so one of the things we watch also Brian that is now now still $3 okay so um $3 difference between Brent and and uh Texas intermediate usually means the Middle East is stable if it go more than that $4 $5 usually means there's instability in the Middle East so right now stable in the Middle East apparently maybe Israel is not gonna attack Hezbollah after all um I disagree Israel will attack will attack Hezbollah for sure so I have friends in um in Israel uh and basically because Hezbollah is still there and lobbing missiles in then 53,000 some people uh have to evacuate out of Northern Israel right so it's like um no one could live in um Washington State and Montana right because Canada was lobing missiles into the northern United States so it wouldn't be well just let Canada keep doing that no no they have to go at it so but the basic the timing is they have to get control of um enough control of Gaza and West Bank so basically that is the corridor is going across and then raiding in because they don't have enough people to do a full you know occupation thing so the the most efficient way is to put the quarters in they have that quarters and then they will then be able to to get the reserves and go deal with Hezbollah got it got it I also heard they're a little short of ammo yeah yeah there's issues yeah there's issues okay so um natural gas unchanged $241 that's kind of in the middle of the recent range we have got uh so I'm thinking now that these things have they're saying all unchanged I think that is now we're looking at the pre-market which doesn't start till tomorrow night so gold uh yeah this reflects what it was this morning uh 2369 so about 35 up on the day uh silver over $30 almost 31 again similar up quite strongly on the day and copper at $453 again up strongly um but nowhere near it's $10 that it was just a few weeks ago we talked about that a few minutes ago so we've got crypto I'm sorry Bitcoin down 1783 playing around with the 60,000 level again just barely over at 6,140 I don't know anything about crypto I report this every day and the only thing that I report in terms of my own analysis is whether or not it's going up or down and what it might mean technically in my little ke brain technically so I'm looking at it now being almost down to its recent lows which is around 59,000 and uh I know there's some headlines headlines about the federal government the FED itself uh uh saying some things and the federal government making some new rules right that's all I know so so I think um we can go over that in more detail because it's more complex topic we have to do more of a show on that um so I think the the main point is that um you know can it become this other system enough and it's getting into ETFs and stuff like that so so the traditional um you know Goldman Sachs they're making their money from it too so they want to exceed so there's you know the the the forces Banking and other stuff that would make it succeed and then there is you know the whole world situation where people when they want to you know uh expatriate funds you know that's you do that there the more demand that for that and then the whole the us is going bankrupt the system is going to break thing so if the US breaks and there's people who make that case it's a more complicated case then in that scenario potentially um Bitcoin could become that last currency thing standing better than gold I guess yeah better than gold potentially right it a means to actually a replacement for fiat currency right so that scenario but um there's other stuff going on there that that in terms of e and flows and blah blah blah um Tom Lee you know big um stock investment bull thinks that we get to 150,000 by the end of the year yes and then Kathy Wood has their million dollar um you know forecast out a few years so um but it's more complicated we have to do more of a show to discuss yeah yeah I I'm I'm really I have somebody even sent me a book one of the one of my uh my um uh commenters on on YouTube sent me a book on it I still haven't even read the book I'm I I I probably should someday just get a little more depth but on a day-to-day basis it's just interesting to me to watch it as a pure play in terms of what's Happening numerically right so not not knowing anything about the the underlying and sometimes knowing a headline or two so I'll throw the headlines in but but yeah just there a pure numbers game that's how I kind of do it on this channel all right well that is it we've covered everything there is to cover today and Bri we'll be back again tomorrow night because it turns out that that uh Bradford Ferguson can't make it tomorrow night I don't know why it's there's nothing going on tomorrow why is he tomorrow what the heck anyway so we'll do it again tomorrow night thank you so much for being on to all of you out there it's been great talking to you thank you