this video was brought to you by brilliant over the past few weeks a trump victory in November has started to look increasingly likely anxious Democrats have been unable to convince Biden to step down and while we haven't seen any polls yet most people think that the failed assassination attempt against Trump and his reaction to it will help him politically which is why the bessing markets implied odds of a trump Victory spiked in the immediate aftermath of the shooting now a lot of the international media's attention has understandably been focused on Trump's controversial foreign policy which seemingly includes ditching both NATO and Taiwan but less Focus has been paid to his economic agenda which if it were actually implemented would be just as consequential so in this video we thought we take a look at Trump's let's say unorthodox economic policies and how they could transform the global [Music] economy before we start if you haven't already please consider subscrib ring and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos so the first thing to say is that Trump has said a lot of different and often contradictory things about Economic Policy over the past few months so coming up with a welldefined list of precise policies is sort of impossible nonetheless there are apparently four themes that Trump and his advisers keep coming back to and they are more tariffs less taxes a weaker dollar and a less independent Central Bank let's start with number one though more tariffs now Trump was obviously pretty keen on tariffs in his first term because he thinks they help to protect American manufacturers and reduce America's bilateral trade deficits however the tariffs that Trump is proposing this time round would be completely unprecedented most notably Trump has proposed a flat tariff on all Chinese Imports the precise rate for this tariff is unclear the Washington post originally reported that it was going to be 60% but Trump has denied it twice once in a Bloomberg interview when he said he was only considering a 50% tax and once on Fox News where he said quote no I would say maybe it's going to be more than 60% anyway whatever the precise number this would force perhaps the most dramatic rebalancing of international trade flows in modern history Trump has also said that he wants to expand Biden's new tariffs on Chinese Imports related to the energy transition for instance he wants to double the current tariff rate on Chinese EVS from 100% to 200% on top of that Trump has also endorsed a 10% tariff on literally All Imports including from countries we might consider to be American Allies like the EU on top of this Trump really isn't a fan of the EU in that same Bloomberg interview for instance he claimed that quote we love Scotland and Germany but once you get past that the EU treat us violently and the European Union you know nobody in things like this it's like China anyway next up on his list is taxes like many Republicans he thinks that low taxes stimulate economic growth and because well they made him popular last time round when it comes to specific policies Trump has said that he wants to extend the 2017 tax cuts and jobs act which is due to expire at the end of 2025 and has floated reducing the corporation tax rate to either 20 or 15% having already cut it from 30 5% to 21% in 2017 where it stayed ever since in fact in a meeting with Congressional Republicans in mid June Trump even suggested combining his love for tariffs with his apathy towards taxes by scrapping income tax entirely and essentially replacing it with super high tariffs here Trump has apparently been inspired by William McKinley the president from 1897 to 1901 whom Trump references frequently in interviews on Trump's reading of History the 1897 dingley act which raised the average duty of imports to above 50% allowed McKinley to avoid implementing an income tax which had been floated by free trade Democrats in the mid 1890s as a way to make up the potential decrease in tariff revenues leaving aside the question as to whether Trump's reading of history is actually accurate here today it would almost definitely be impossible to do in 2023 the total value of All American Imports was about 3 trillion while the total value of all income taxes was about $2 trillion this means that Trump would need at least a 67% average tariff on All Imports in order to replace income tax but even this wouldn't work because as the Tariff rate Rises the value and quantity of imports would fall the third policy that Trump seems to be pursuing is a weaker dollar for context the US dollar is the world's Reserve currency which creates a lot of demand for dollars which means that the dollar is stronger or more valuable than it would otherwise be until relatively recently most politicians apparently agreed that this was a good thing for the us because it allows Americans to import more stuff and the American government to borrow more money however some commentators especially Trump's Republicans have recently started arguing that a strong dollar makes American Producers and exporters less competitive thereby contributing to America's de-industrialization Trump's eyes including newly appointed VP nominee JD Vance and longtime economic adviser Robert ligh Heiser have therefore started advocating for devaluation how this would actually work in practice is unclear given that the dollar is a freely traded Reserve currency which essentially rules out the usual means of devaluation like Capital controls or a managed exchange rate liser has previously suggested striking a grand bargain with foreign governments similar to the 1985 Plaza record but the Plaza Records Was A agreed with American Allies in Japan and Europe and B only fleetingly effective if at all the only other obvious way to devalue it would be to dramatically lower interest rates but at things stand that's up to the Federal Reserve and that takes us onto the last policy on the list a less independent Central Bank for context America's Central Bank the Federal Reserve is operationally independent which means the government can't tell it what to to do today most central banks are independent because most people think the politicians have a ing the current Fed chair Jerome Powell and replacing him with someone more plant po was appointed by Trump in 2017 but Trump regularly expressed frustration at Pal's unwillingness to cut rates during his term and even floated demoting pal in the first days of the pandemic although it's not actually clear that the president has the authority to do this when pressed on it in the Bloomberg interview we mentioned earlier Trump promised not to as pow before the end of his term but it's very easy to imagine Trump taking at least at least a more confrontational attitude towards the FED especially if they respond to his other policies like tariffs and a weaker dollar both of which are likely to increase inflation with steep rate hikes it's interesting that even as people ostensibly into Politics the DDR team spends more and more time analyzing data and economic information as it becomes increasingly critical but as a bunch of people are ordinarily more focused on Words than numbers we've really benefited from courses on brilliant.org in order to keep ourselves sharp that's because brilliant is the best way to learn maths and computer science in a fun and interactive way from foundational and advanced maths to AI data science neural networks decision making and more with new lessons added monthly even if you like us don't necessarily think of yourself as a traditionally stem kind of person these courses could prove incredibly useful for your life and career in fact brilliant recently launched a ton of new content in data all of which uses real world data to train you to see Trends and make better informed decisions when it comes to our work courses like these can help us to 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