Insights on Crypto Investment Strategies

Hi, I want to talk to you today about my friends at Bitwise and why they're the best crypto asset manager out there. I've talked on the show often about how crypto is reshaping everything from finance portfolios and even macro. Everything's ramping up. We've got tailwinds in DC, interest from Tradfi, and growing optimism. But smart investors see all of this and focus on the how. What's the savviest way to seize this moment? And that's why so many investors I know are working with Bitwise today. They've been allin on crypto since 2017. They're OGs. They've got more than 30 products to help investors like you get access to whatever they need or want. They've got a team of more than 100 across the US and Europe. And they have over 10 billion in client assets. You know, a lot of people know Bitwise for their ETFs. You know, how they manage the world's largest crypto index funds and the wide range of crypto ETFs they have. But not as many people realize. Bitwise manages private alpha strategies too and has SMAs for large investors and is one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking providers. They really do everything. These guys are true OGs in the space and they're good friends of mine, too. So, please go and check out Bitwise. They're really excellent. Go to bitwiseinvestments.com and see all that they've got to offer. That's bitweisinvestments.com or just email them at jamesbitweisinvestments.com and let them know that Ral sent you. Anyway, there's a million ways to access crypto. Explore how you can access it best with Bitwise. And remember, carefully consider the extreme risk associated with crypto before investing. Anyway, thanks so much. Hey everyone, sorry to interrupt, but this is the cheesy podcast bit that gets on everyone's nerves, but it's really important to me. Please, if you can like the channel and also subscribe, it helps me a lot to get the best guests in the world for you guys. So, click like and subscribe. Appreciate it. Thanks. Hi, I'm Raul Pal and welcome to my show, The Journeyman, where I travel to that nexus of understanding between macro, crypto, and the exponential age of technology. Actually, wait, I need to fess up. It's me, Palvatar, Ral's AI avatar. Raul is in the midst of a bloody hectic travel schedule, so you're all stuck with me today. But boy, do we have a treat for everyone. Today, we're releasing Raul's presentation that he gave last week live in Dubai at Sui Base Camp 2025. It's got Raul, it's got charts, and it's got bananas. What else do you need? So, with that said, let's get to it. And Raul will be back next week with an all new episode. Join me Ral Pal as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto, and exponential age landscapes. In the journey man, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together. Okay. So, I'm going to go through some slides that will give you an idea of where we are in the economy and where we are in markets just to steady everyone's nerves because all everybody sees is headlines. The world's going to everything's going to die, the world is going to war, all of this stuff. The reality is, is it something much better? Let's see if I can figure this out. So, firstly, I use a framework that I call the everything code. It's something that I've spent 35 years building. uh in macro where I started to realize that the dominant factor in all of macro is actually liquidity and the debasement of currencies and it explains most price movements in all of the assets that we care about. And I realized this is all to do with debt. And it came from the why we're seeing four-year cycles in crypto and the economy and all of these things is actually driven by um the debt refi cycle. The world just reached too much debt back in 2008. And what we've been doing since then is servicing the debt. We've also got some other key factors. This chart is a chart that I produced um a few years ago. It's still the single most important chart in macro and explains everything that is going on in our world today. And this is the fact that demographics is everything and the demographics um of the aging populations across the western world. This these are the US numbers using the labor force participation rate. Explain the buildup in debt. Why that is is as populations get older, economies slow down. To service the existing debt, you need it requires more debt. To create GDP growth, you need more debt. See, GDP growth is driven by population growth, productivity growth, and debt growth. And debt growth has been the driver both in the US, in China, in Europe, in the UK, all across the world. It's all driven by the same dynamic, and that's this aging population thing. It slows down GDP growth and creates unstable economies. And that chart just shows the stunning correlation between uh um debt to GDP and population itself. What's interesting is then when you go on stage further and say okay we're seeing this debt. How are we dealing with this debt? And it's actually just driven by liquidity. So here I'm using Fed net liquidity. Fed net liquidity is the the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury General Accounts, which is the Treasury themselves, not the Fed, and then the reverse repo facility. These are the levers that they've been using. It started just using the balance sheet. 2009 all the way through to about 2014, it was just the use of the balance sheet. Then they started sneaking in new ways of debasing currency and that was by adding in these other levers, you know, getting banks to put reserves here or take reserves out there or injecting money into the economy via the checking account, the treasury general account. that's actually shifted to total liquidity now because this because everyone figures out the game which is the debasement of currency debase the currency try and grow GDP growth and lower debts of GDP or just manage it. Um now they're using total liquidity which includes measures like M2 which is the the banking system as well. So when you add those things up this has and I'll show you these charts later the most stunning correlation of all time to all assets. So 90% of Bitcoin's price movements are driven by total liquidity um and 97% of the NASDAQ. Hi R here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about 6 years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So, just click on the link below and start your journey now. So, here's the real issue here. Why are the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer? Well, scarce assets keep going up in price. Real estate, equities, art, gold, all of these things. Young people can't afford it. poor people can't afford it because they've got variable income which is earnings and it buys them less of these every year. What's actually happening? What that mechanism is is a is a tax on everybody of 8% a year. A global taxation of 8% a year that you don't understand. You just don't get richer by 8% a year. Add in another 3% global inflation, you're at 11% debasement of currency. That's your hurdle rate to stay as wealthy as you are today. That's a staggeringly difficult thing considering most asset classes don't produce those kinds of returns. Which is why so many young people have come to crypto cuz crypto completely upends this system. They can't buy houses. They can't buy all of the other things that older people were able to afford. So they forced into more speculative, higher risk assets that have much higher returns. It's the only way out of the trap. And the trap is driven by this debasement. So if you want to see how close the correlation is, and I'll say the full correlation chart later, it basically drives um Bitcoin. And what we see is there's periods where it decouples and these are the banana zones. It decouples when what we get is the retail frenzy and the frenzy into the market, cools off, comes back to trend rate of this debasement of 8% or so. But over time, it produces astonishing returns. And that's why Bitcoin looks like this on the log regression channel. Uh it's also still remarkably cheap. Where it ends up at the end of the banana zone is usually the one or two standard deviation uh level. We're a long way from that and that would give us much higher prices. You can't see it on this, but if we were to get to two standard deviations, that would put Bitcoin at $850,000. I don't think it's going to go there, but what we're saying is there's plenty of upside to come. I know people get frustrated in sideways markets. It's just the nature of the beast. It does nothing, corrects for a while, corrects for a while, and explodes out of the traps. Um, and we're kind of in that phase now that I'll talk to you about when we talk about debasement of currency. You can't see this very easily, but at the top here is well, these are all of the asset classes that we um monitor at XPAM, my asset management firm. And you can see that most of the returns of you know US small caps, REITs, treasuries, preferred stocks, high yield bonds, they're all annualizing at less than 10% a year returns. So owning those assets makes you actually poorer because of the debasement. Once you get to the S&P 500, you're at 12%. Basically, you break even. divide the S&P 500 by um global total liquidity, it's basically a flatline. So owning US equities in the broadest sense makes you no money either. So all of the the millennials have been piling money into 401ks and not getting richer. So none of their 401ks will buy them as much of a house and stuff like that. Only when you get to technology investing do you start beating the benchmark. And so this realization from the everything code is the basement of currency. There are only two assets that matter in the entire world. One is technology and two is crypto. And crypto dwarfs everything else. It is the greatest performing asset in all recorded history. We've never had anything like this before. So here's Bitcoin since 2012, 130% annualized. That's including three gigantic draw downs. um Ethereum at 113 and Salana at 142. So, and Salana obviously starts later. So, the magnitude of the returns is enormous. The volatility we have to stomach to do it is the gain. And it's a matter of, you know, I've told everybody about the don't this up thesis of how to deal with volatility, how not to lose control of your tokens cuz this stuff compounds over time. Bitcoin since 2012, 27 and a half million% returns. Again, nothing ever has remotely come close to this. So, that's the opportunity. And we said the tech stocks, they're great. And Bitcoin or crypto is great, fantastic. Then you look at the NASDAQ versus Bitcoin, it's down 99.94%. Crypto is a super massive black hole that simply outperforms and sucks every other asset dry. This is the big one, the biggest one we've ever been given, the greatest macro opportunity of all time. We've got the central banks debasing currency which is giving us a gigantic tailwind. They don't want the system to break. So every time something happens, they inject more liquidity. So they're giving you free money. And to take that money, you need the volatility. So what causes the volatility? Well, it's actually driven by liquidity. Again, once you come to narrower time horizons, liquidity changes things. So, we've just gone through a 3-month period of the market feeling and everyone's saying it's all over. We're never going to have old season, everything's terrible, we're all going to die. What was actually happening was the fact that in Q4 2024, financial conditions tightened. And we measure financial conditions by the dollar. rates, interest rates, and oil. All of those went up in Q4, and there's a three-month lag, and it drives it. So, here's a simple way. We're now seeing people saying the economy slow, shipping slow, all of the tariff stuff, the markets priced in this tariff stuff last year once they saw the probabilities of a Trump re-election. So, what we've got here is the economic surprises index of the US versus other countries in the world, i.e. When it's going down, the US is underperforming in economic surprises term. When it goes up, it outperforms. It's basically just following the dollar and rates. And what it's saying is whatever noise we're seeing now um in the economic data, which is some of the tariff related stuff as people have have um built inventories very quickly. Liquidity is going to completely erase that very quickly. We saw it exactly in 2017 when Trump imposed similar tariffs, similar backdrop. The dollar and rates fell and what we saw back then was the same collapse in the economic surprises index. We had talks about recession all over again back then. Trump's going to create a recession. Then what happened was the liquidity conditions drove all economic data higher. And when we look at that economic data, Bitcoin's already priced it in. It's already priced in weaker than the economic data itself. So what are we fearing right now? What are people worried about? People are worried about what they're doing is creating narratives for today to explain liquidity conditions from 3 months ago. That's the ridiculousness of what goes on on Twitter all day is a lack of understanding of what actually drives these markets. What are the dominant factors? The dominant factor is financial conditions which lead liquidity which lead markets and even in markets it's gold actually follows financial conditions the closest then with a lag it becomes uh crypto and tech then with a lag becomes the S&P 500 cyclicals commodities all of those things. So people are talking about recession now. We've had this negative GDP print. A lot of this is technically driven by um the um imports that are happening to load up on inventories as tariffs come so people don't have the price shock. Okay, fine. So most of this is going to get unwound. Why? Because global growth is about to pick up super fast. So Philly Fed, this this whole presentation was put together a week and a half ago to send here. So it's all out of date. So the fully fed latest numbers came in exactly as predicted by us by this chart. It's actually quite useful because I just went through this deck this morning and all of this was from two weeks ago and it's all proven to work. So Philly Fed comes down now. So what we should see is now an increase in um economic activity going forwards. So I the back end of the year is going to look very different than the first quarter did. I use a lot of technical analysis. I even do it on economic data which is abhorrent to most people but it's worked for me for 35 years and I use this is a um a system called demark indicators and basically it's telling you that we should see the economic surprises starting to to rise. Bitcoin um is led by financial conditions here by 3 months a year rate of change of Bitcoin. We should start to see very dramatic movements in the price of Bitcoin going forwards. I'll show you a bit more about this in a sec. And to go back to that idea that the Trump cycle is repeating, I mean, it's an incredible repeat, but more powerful even than 2017. Those of us who were in crypto 2017, um, that's when I made the mistake around this time of year, thinking, you know what, I'm going to sell my Bitcoin at 2,000. I bought it at 200 in in 2013. It went to 20,000 at the end of the year, and I felt like a complete Um, and and I managed to buy it back in the in the in the selloff in COVID and I bought it back at 6 and a half thousand. So I sold it at 2,000 and bought it back at 6 and a half. That's how not to do things. That's called it up. Too good. Um, and so I'll try to teach you how not to do that. So the dollar Trump last time around, same thing. The markets priced in tariffs. The dollar the dollar screamed higher. It created this weak patch of growth. Trump came out and said the dollar's too high. Guess what? Scott Bessant, who's a macro hedge fund manager. I've known him for 20 years, 25 years. He understands the game. Trump said the same thing. Everyone said the same thing. The dollar's too strong. And hey, presto, the dollar has utterly collapsed. And we haven't started yet. And it's a cyclical thing. It's not the end of the dollar. That's another narrative you read. There can't be the end of the dollar right now because 87% of world trade is in dollars and 50% of the entire world's debt are in dollars. So that's 200% of global GDP is actually in dollars. So there's a shortage of dollars globally and that won't go away for a long time. So the dollar's collapsing. This kind of thing is a massive tailwind. As the dollar weakens, it means that the more global exports pick up. Everybody who's a foreigner who services US government debt, it's cheaper to service the debt. Cost them less of their domestic currency cash flows. So it's a very powerful setup. A weak dollar is incredibly good for world growth. It allows China, everybody else to start exporting, the whole world economy starts picking up. The last time this happened, the Trump cycle, well, that was the initial correction that we got. We had this whole period of correction, much like we've had now. It stopped in about March. Well, we got to about April and then we did this and from that correction low, it did a 23x. Now, I don't expect Bitcoin to do a 23x because this was much earlier in its adoption curve, but some of the others will something close to it. We've got a perfect setup, one of the best setups I've ever seen because we know the debt has to be rolled. We know the forward-looking liquidity is is coming and we know how assets react to it. Just like having a crystal ball, nothing will be perfect, but directionally it should be right. So let's look at this liquidity cycle, break it down a little bit. So when you look at it, global M2 is a good proxy for total global liquidity. Why I use this on these charts is it's more real time. Total global liquidity is um takes longer to calculate uh for the various data inputs. But Globe M2 does a very good job. Again, like the dollar version, this is wildly outperforming what happened at the Trump previous cycle. So we've got plenty of dollar liquidity. Global M2 is driven by two things. The dollar itself, which is why it's accelerating so much, and then the global financial system, that's the banks. And what they're doing now, um, all of the governments around the world and the central banks are forcing the banks to buy debts. Basel 4 is a reason behind that. the new changes to the SLR in the US. All of this is a way of forcing bonds and debt into the banking system and then forcing the banks to create more money using them as reserves. It's just another way of debasing the currency. So, Globin 2, when we look at it outright, it does the same pattern every time. These patterns repeat not out of voodoo. It's because it's driven by the debt refy cycle. The average maturity of global debt is four years. They're all between the three and fiveyear sector. There's some long-term debt. Nobody can issue long-term debt because the market won't absorb it. So, what we find is we're shorter term. Every time we do this, we have a breakout, a retest. So, this was the 1617 cycle. This is the equivalent one I think now. Breakout, retest, explodes higher, does this whole liquidity tightening. That's the bare market. That's when the economy slows down. And that's when rates go up. Does the same thing. Co gave it a false, you know, a double shot. It did it again. We're doing exactly the same thing. It's almost a complete repeat of the 2017. So, what we're seeing is global M2 at all-time highs. That should mean all-time highs Russet prices. That's how the world works. What we've also got here is global M2 against Bitcoin. So, it's the same chart, but now we can see what happens to Bitcoin. Every time this happens, it breaks out, retest, breaks out, retest, and then Bitcoin starts hitting the next leg of the banana zone. Usually, you start the banana zone a bit earlier with the breakout, you have the correction, and then it goes. And I've talked about this as three phases of the banana zone. Phase one was Q1 last year as we started to break out in all these measures. New all-time highs and liquidity, Bitcoin goes to all-time highs. We have the corrective period which is the the correction zone. And then we get the banana zone part two which is usually old season. This is the fable chart that everybody in the world has copied from me. But this is the global M2 chart versus Bitcoin with a 12 lead. It's been like voodoo. It is the most voodoo like chart I've ever come across and it works. Will it work entirely? Often what you find is later on Bitcoin outperforms global M2 because of the speculative mania that builds over time as people realize what's going on. What it tells us is the back end of this year is basically a one-way street with a few corrections. The corrections will be normal. You will be questioning me saying, "Is it all finished? Is the banana zone finished? Is it all over? Have do I need to get out now?" And generally speaking, just follow the money. It really is that simple. The other thing is okay well with the dollar and the banking systems doing this well the other thing that's doing it is the central banks China is starting to print money China has I think by my measure 3 to4 trillion to print but they need the weaker dollar they need to agree the tariffs with the US in exchange the US will continue to weaken the dollar they will allow the dollars into um the Chinese system so they can refile all of the um the dollar debts and a lot of China debts, all of the corporate debts are in dollars. So what happens is we're starting to break out and that adds to this push of liquidity. So it's not just the weaker dollar itself, it's not just the banking system, but it's the central banks starting to pump liquidity into the system as well because they've all got to roll the debt. And that's why is so cyclical. Every time the total global liquidity index breaks out, again, the same thing with M2, the market goes higher. And the reason being is I talked about the correlation. Well, here's the chart. It's a 90% correlation with weekly global liquidity. That's Bitcoin. And the NASDAQ is a stunning 95%. And so, it's hard to refute that this is not what is happening. It's so obvious, but most people want to refuse to believe it. They start midcurving the whole thing, saying, "Well, that's not the printing of money and this is not how what it is. It's so clear in the data. It's so obvious that this has been going on." And even when you listen to Scott Besson speak or Janet Yellen speak, they all talk about this. They talk it about in the terms of of basically the everything code framework. Business cycle. Business cycle is currently weak. The business cycle is the most important cyclical factor. It drives it's part of the global liquidity construct. So the business cycle actually came out today or yesterday at 48.7 slightly weaker as we've been expecting. Bitcoin's already priced it down to 47.4. So Bitcoin's already priced in the bad news. But the good news is financial conditions leaded by 9 months. It's a very useful tool and it's telling us that we're going to see the business cycle pick up super strong and this will keep going. I think we'll end up in the 60s. It also prices Bitcoin by doing this and so when you look at Bitcoin itself the moment the ISM we've had this very low period of ISM and that was driven by this very flat dollar and also by rates staying higher than normal. But as the ISM starts crossing 50, economic growth comes back, earnings come back, household earnings come back, stuff gets reinvested in markets. So at this point is when Bitcoin super accelerates. Um, and that point lies ahead. We're about to see that point now. Now, we've hadn't shown it on this presentation, but we've also imputed how it reacts to ISM. And if we get to that 57 ISM, that put puts Bitcoin at 450,000. Is it exact? Will it be exactly that? No. But all of the people are saying it's going to 150, 250 are probably scarred from last cycle without looking at the forward-looking data. So, it's incredibly positive for me. It also is what drives altcoin season. So, the fable altcoin season, everyone's like, "It's never going to happen again." It's just a function of the business cycle. Why? Because household earnings are still subdued. Because the business cycle subdued, average businesses outside of technology have subdued earnings. The moment the business cycle picks up, everyone has spare cash. Cash gets recycled into assets. People move further out the risk curve. So old coins are exactly the same as credit spreads, small caps, emerging markets, junk bonds, all of this. They're all exactly the same thing. The further out the risk curve, the business cycle actually drives all of it. It's also the same with fine wines. It's also the same with Rolex watches. All driven by the same thing. So we all want to see the ISM above 50. We've got the forward-looking data to say it's going to happen pretty soon and that's going to be a very big signal to us. Usually that will happen as Bitcoin starts breaking all-time highs which we imagine should happen pretty quickly cuz that's every time that happens when we start to see these liquidity conditions. But the problem is is nobody believes me. that trick. Everyone's like, "No, but the markets and Trump and tariffs and geopolitics and China and Russia and it's this all the and what you've all done is price in maximum fear at every point. You've got this is number of stocks with a 40 days RSI blow 30. This was before the rally really started. one of the few ever. This is the same as we had at CO when the world shut down. It's the same as the Russian default and the Asian crisis. People are crazy with fear. Investor intelligence survey percentage bullish all-time record lows. The least bullish people have ever been in history. And the forward-looking indicators tell you the economy is about to explode higher and people are massive bearish. What was interesting is we just saw the charts coming out today was that retail investors had been buying the dip. Institutions still haven't. They're all massively underweight. There's another chart. Sentiment bulls versus bears bearishness again. Alltime record highs only ever been exceeded a couple of times in history. um consumer expectations for declines in stocks near all-time record highs, the VIX index, the measure of fear of volatility in the index. Um in the top three spikes of all time and again using my demark indicators, it's generally a reversal pattern. So quickly to go through the charts, this is the most important chart for you to understand is that corrections are normal. You've just gone through a normal correction and you've managed to lose your minds, which is hilarious because we've had seven of these. And last time around, they were bigger. Back in 2017, 28% 39% 38% 27. Nobody remembers any of those. In fact, none of you remember any of these. Some of you remember this summer cuz it was pretty miserable. But that one, do you remember that or that one? No. But each time you convince yourself, it's never going to happen. It's all over. We're never going to make money. And in 2017, you did the same. And it just kept going up. Remember 23x in that whole moments of you going, "Oh, it's all over. It's never we're never going to make money." And me selling out somewhere here thinking, "Yeah, I'm really smart." No, I was a Um so again using demark indicators these have worked stunningly well because Bitcoin is now up here. These 13s cluster 13's lows we had them in Salana as well. This chart is hilariously out of date. This was the hourly chart of Sui um when I said listen if it breaks this inverse head and shoulders on the hourly should be up. Well now it's up somewhere above the top of this chart already. When I look at the chart pattern of Suie it is a wedge pattern again. We're way up here. We're just short-term consolidating now. My guess goes to all all-time highs pretty soon. Uh it's a very bullish backdrop. Again, another hilariously out of date chart. I've been using the Sooie versus Salana chart as my kind of compass of, you know, what's the strongest performing horse in the race. Uh and this is what made me allocate all of my money essentially to Sue. Um and it's now up here. Um, so that's how fast things move. The weekly chart, you can see it was this breakout here that allowed me to think, okay, this is going to be a game for Suie to play that should outperform Salana, which is an amazing project with a fantastic community, great technology. This is the faster horse. So, that's how I look at things. The other one was interesting. Again, another hilariously out of date chart is Deep. Um, Deep exploded out of this. Um, Deep is, if people don't realize, I just got it from the asset management firm that I uh that I run. Deep was the best performing crypto asset of the top 300 in the last month and it's outperforming Sui Tiff. I mean, this is amazing. Well, it makes sense, right? This is the liquidity layer. Of course, it will. And it's earlier stage. So earlier stage um and it's it's so highly correlated. So, you know, the whole ecosystem is is looking amazing. You've seen here, you've been here, you've seen everybody talk, you've heard from all the builders, you've heard from all of the co-founders, you've heard from everybody why people care about this. It's not about the charts. The charts just reflect everything that you guys are all doing here. And it's an incredible job. The excitement of what's happening here today and over the last few days. Everybody should be proud of. Every should be proud of what's been built and the vision that these guys are executing on is simply stunning and the market is paying attention. All Russ is hilariously out of date because it's up here now. So they were everything has broken out. Everything in the entire ecosystem has broken out. All of crypto is breaking out because of the energy and what's going on here. We happen to be the fastest horse right now. Is that a guarantee? No, it's not. But, you know, I just follow the money. I follow the liquidity flows. I follow the charts. I try and make the best asset allocation decisions I can. And the best one I can think of is we're in the banana zone. So, the banana zone comes in phases. I'll show you that in a sec. But basically, uh, in that correction, using a simple measure RSI, we got to hilariously oversold what normally happens afterwards. period of sideways consolidation, break higher. We've just had the sideways consolidation. This is what happens if you put all of those periods together, create an average that looks the same as the liquidity chart. It's all the same thing, right? It's all telling you exactly the same thing, which is the banana zone is upon us. Um, that's when the dollar had this massive move. It was a four standard deviation move. One of the largest, fastest moves in the dollar's history. What happens after that? Well, after the red line, number go up. People say, "Well, we must be near the top. Why aren't we near the top?" This is everyone's fear. Always near the top. We're nowhere near. Our cycle top indicator is a long way away from anyway. In fact, we're at very subdued levels, much like we had in 2013 before the largest bull run of all time. Now, I'm not guaranteeing that, but I'm just saying probabilistically speaking, things are very positive going forwards. I see no reason for any fear. Finally, the fable banana zone chart. The construct is the same. It's not a mystery. It is a repeat of the debt cycle. They are rolling the debts. They are doing the same thing. Each cycle is not to do with a hing cycle. Nothing to do with any of that. It's all driven by liquidity cycle and and funding of debts. Each phase we get phase one of the banana zone. Banana number one. the corrective zone. Banana number two comes another correction. Banana number three. So this is the banana zone. So that's what happened in 2020 uh 2021. Off we go. Sorry, that was 2017, which again looks very similar to this one. That was the last one. Here we are now. Calmly clearer to me. I've shown you the the macro evidence, the technical evidence, the sentiment evidence. Everything here suggests to me that hold on to your hats. Don't this up. Don't lose control of your tokens. Don't use leverage. Don't get your wallets hacked. Just sit with it. Be careful. Don't get FOMO. Do all of the right things and we'll go up to the next phase of correction zone. That's going to be harder because the next one that happens, we'll have a 35% drop and you you'll all say, "Is it over?" and you'll definitely be sure it's over and everybody on Twitter will tell you it's over and it won't be over. By our work, we suggest that because of the elongation of the business cycle, because rates were higher for longer, the forward-looking liquidity suggests that again, probabilistically speaking, without any guarantees, this whole thing goes into Q1, maybe Q2 of 2026, which would align with Trump's, you know, trying to win the midterms as well. So everything's lined up for us. I think it's started. So keep the faith, keep building stuff. Uh and let's keep driving Siri forward with all of this. Thank you. Hey, thanks for sticking around to the end. Uh look, if you enjoyed it, hit the subscribe button and check out the video here on the right hand side. I'm sure you'll enjoy that one as well. And if you're ready for more, go to realvision.com/join.

Hi, I want to talk to you today about my friends at Bitwise and why they're the best crypto asset manager out there. I've talked on the show often about how crypto is reshaping everything from finance portfolios and even macro. Everything's ramping up. We've got tailwinds in DC, interest from Tradfi, and growing optimism. But smart investors see all of this and focus on the how. What's the savviest way to seize this moment? And that's why so many investors I know are working with Bitwise today. They've been allin on crypto since 2017. They're OGs. They've got more than 30 products to help investors like you get access to whatever they need or want. They've got a team of more than 100 across the US and Europe. And they have over 10 billion in client assets. You know, a lot of people know Bitwise for their ETFs. You know, how they manage the world's largest crypto index funds and the wide range of crypto ETFs they have. But not as many people realize. Bitwise manages private alpha strategies too and has SMAs for large investors and is one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking providers. They really do everything. These guys are true OGs in the space and they're good friends of mine, too. So, please go and check out Bitwise. They're really excellent. Go to bitwiseinvestments.com and see all that they've got to offer. That's bitweisinvestments.com or just email them at jamesbitweisinvestments.com and let them know that Ral sent you. Anyway, there's a million ways to access crypto. Explore how you can access it best with Bitwise. And remember, carefully consider the extreme risk associated with crypto before investing. Anyway, thanks so much. Hey everyone, sorry to interrupt, but this is the cheesy podcast bit that gets on everyone's nerves, but it's really important to me. Please, if you can like the channel and also subscribe, it helps me a lot to get the best guests in the world for you guys. So, click like and subscribe. Appreciate it. Thanks. Hi, I'm Raul Pal and welcome to my show, The Journeyman, where I travel to that nexus of understanding between macro, crypto, and the exponential age of technology. Actually, wait, I need to fess up. It's me, Palvatar, Ral's AI avatar. Raul is in the midst of a bloody hectic travel schedule, so you're all stuck with me today. But boy, do we have a treat for everyone. Today, we're releasing Raul's presentation that he gave last week live in Dubai at Sui Base Camp 2025. It's got Raul, it's got charts, and it's got bananas. What else do you need? So, with that said, let's get to it. And Raul will be back next week with an all new episode. Join me Ral Pal as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto, and exponential age landscapes. In the journey man, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together. Okay. So, I'm going to go through some slides that will give you an idea of where we are in the economy and where we are in markets just to steady everyone's nerves because all everybody sees is headlines. The world's going to everything's going to die, the world is going to war, all of this stuff. The reality is, is it something much better? Let's see if I can figure this out. So, firstly, I use a framework that I call the everything code. It's something that I've spent 35 years building. uh in macro where I started to realize that the dominant factor in all of macro is actually liquidity and the debasement of currencies and it explains most price movements in all of the assets that we care about. And I realized this is all to do with debt. And it came from the why we're seeing four-year cycles in crypto and the economy and all of these things is actually driven by um the debt refi cycle. The world just reached too much debt back in 2008. And what we've been doing since then is servicing the debt. We've also got some other key factors. This chart is a chart that I produced um a few years ago. It's still the single most important chart in macro and explains everything that is going on in our world today. And this is the fact that demographics is everything and the demographics um of the aging populations across the western world. This these are the US numbers using the labor force participation rate. Explain the buildup in debt. Why that is is as populations get older, economies slow down. To service the existing debt, you need it requires more debt. To create GDP growth, you need more debt. See, GDP growth is driven by population growth, productivity growth, and debt growth. And debt growth has been the driver both in the US, in China, in Europe, in the UK, all across the world. It's all driven by the same dynamic, and that's this aging population thing. It slows down GDP growth and creates unstable economies. And that chart just shows the stunning correlation between uh um debt to GDP and population itself. What's interesting is then when you go on stage further and say okay we're seeing this debt. How are we dealing with this debt? And it's actually just driven by liquidity. So here I'm using Fed net liquidity. Fed net liquidity is the the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury General Accounts, which is the Treasury themselves, not the Fed, and then the reverse repo facility. These are the levers that they've been using. It started just using the balance sheet. 2009 all the way through to about 2014, it was just the use of the balance sheet. Then they started sneaking in new ways of debasing currency and that was by adding in these other levers, you know, getting banks to put reserves here or take reserves out there or injecting money into the economy via the checking account, the treasury general account. that's actually shifted to total liquidity now because this because everyone figures out the game which is the debasement of currency debase the currency try and grow GDP growth and lower debts of GDP or just manage it. Um now they're using total liquidity which includes measures like M2 which is the the banking system as well. So when you add those things up this has and I'll show you these charts later the most stunning correlation of all time to all assets. So 90% of Bitcoin's price movements are driven by total liquidity um and 97% of the NASDAQ. Hi R here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about 6 years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So, just click on the link below and start your journey now. So, here's the real issue here. Why are the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer? Well, scarce assets keep going up in price. Real estate, equities, art, gold, all of these things. Young people can't afford it. poor people can't afford it because they've got variable income which is earnings and it buys them less of these every year. What's actually happening? What that mechanism is is a is a tax on everybody of 8% a year. A global taxation of 8% a year that you don't understand. You just don't get richer by 8% a year. Add in another 3% global inflation, you're at 11% debasement of currency. That's your hurdle rate to stay as wealthy as you are today. That's a staggeringly difficult thing considering most asset classes don't produce those kinds of returns. Which is why so many young people have come to crypto cuz crypto completely upends this system. They can't buy houses. They can't buy all of the other things that older people were able to afford. So they forced into more speculative, higher risk assets that have much higher returns. It's the only way out of the trap. And the trap is driven by this debasement. So if you want to see how close the correlation is, and I'll say the full correlation chart later, it basically drives um Bitcoin. And what we see is there's periods where it decouples and these are the banana zones. It decouples when what we get is the retail frenzy and the frenzy into the market, cools off, comes back to trend rate of this debasement of 8% or so. But over time, it produces astonishing returns. And that's why Bitcoin looks like this on the log regression channel. Uh it's also still remarkably cheap. Where it ends up at the end of the banana zone is usually the one or two standard deviation uh level. We're a long way from that and that would give us much higher prices. You can't see it on this, but if we were to get to two standard deviations, that would put Bitcoin at $850,000. I don't think it's going to go there, but what we're saying is there's plenty of upside to come. I know people get frustrated in sideways markets. It's just the nature of the beast. It does nothing, corrects for a while, corrects for a while, and explodes out of the traps. Um, and we're kind of in that phase now that I'll talk to you about when we talk about debasement of currency. You can't see this very easily, but at the top here is well, these are all of the asset classes that we um monitor at XPAM, my asset management firm. And you can see that most of the returns of you know US small caps, REITs, treasuries, preferred stocks, high yield bonds, they're all annualizing at less than 10% a year returns. So owning those assets makes you actually poorer because of the debasement. Once you get to the S&P 500, you're at 12%. Basically, you break even. divide the S&P 500 by um global total liquidity, it's basically a flatline. So owning US equities in the broadest sense makes you no money either. So all of the the millennials have been piling money into 401ks and not getting richer. So none of their 401ks will buy them as much of a house and stuff like that. Only when you get to technology investing do you start beating the benchmark. And so this realization from the everything code is the basement of currency. There are only two assets that matter in the entire world. One is technology and two is crypto. And crypto dwarfs everything else. It is the greatest performing asset in all recorded history. We've never had anything like this before. So here's Bitcoin since 2012, 130% annualized. That's including three gigantic draw downs. um Ethereum at 113 and Salana at 142. So, and Salana obviously starts later. So, the magnitude of the returns is enormous. The volatility we have to stomach to do it is the gain. And it's a matter of, you know, I've told everybody about the don't this up thesis of how to deal with volatility, how not to lose control of your tokens cuz this stuff compounds over time. Bitcoin since 2012, 27 and a half million% returns. Again, nothing ever has remotely come close to this. So, that's the opportunity. And we said the tech stocks, they're great. And Bitcoin or crypto is great, fantastic. Then you look at the NASDAQ versus Bitcoin, it's down 99.94%. Crypto is a super massive black hole that simply outperforms and sucks every other asset dry. This is the big one, the biggest one we've ever been given, the greatest macro opportunity of all time. We've got the central banks debasing currency which is giving us a gigantic tailwind. They don't want the system to break. So every time something happens, they inject more liquidity. So they're giving you free money. And to take that money, you need the volatility. So what causes the volatility? Well, it's actually driven by liquidity. Again, once you come to narrower time horizons, liquidity changes things. So, we've just gone through a 3-month period of the market feeling and everyone's saying it's all over. We're never going to have old season, everything's terrible, we're all going to die. What was actually happening was the fact that in Q4 2024, financial conditions tightened. And we measure financial conditions by the dollar. rates, interest rates, and oil. All of those went up in Q4, and there's a three-month lag, and it drives it. So, here's a simple way. We're now seeing people saying the economy slow, shipping slow, all of the tariff stuff, the markets priced in this tariff stuff last year once they saw the probabilities of a Trump re-election. So, what we've got here is the economic surprises index of the US versus other countries in the world, i.e. When it's going down, the US is underperforming in economic surprises term. When it goes up, it outperforms. It's basically just following the dollar and rates. And what it's saying is whatever noise we're seeing now um in the economic data, which is some of the tariff related stuff as people have have um built inventories very quickly. Liquidity is going to completely erase that very quickly. We saw it exactly in 2017 when Trump imposed similar tariffs, similar backdrop. The dollar and rates fell and what we saw back then was the same collapse in the economic surprises index. We had talks about recession all over again back then. Trump's going to create a recession. Then what happened was the liquidity conditions drove all economic data higher. And when we look at that economic data, Bitcoin's already priced it in. It's already priced in weaker than the economic data itself. So what are we fearing right now? What are people worried about? People are worried about what they're doing is creating narratives for today to explain liquidity conditions from 3 months ago. That's the ridiculousness of what goes on on Twitter all day is a lack of understanding of what actually drives these markets. What are the dominant factors? The dominant factor is financial conditions which lead liquidity which lead markets and even in markets it's gold actually follows financial conditions the closest then with a lag it becomes uh crypto and tech then with a lag becomes the S&P 500 cyclicals commodities all of those things. So people are talking about recession now. We've had this negative GDP print. A lot of this is technically driven by um the um imports that are happening to load up on inventories as tariffs come so people don't have the price shock. Okay, fine. So most of this is going to get unwound. Why? Because global growth is about to pick up super fast. So Philly Fed, this this whole presentation was put together a week and a half ago to send here. So it's all out of date. So the fully fed latest numbers came in exactly as predicted by us by this chart. It's actually quite useful because I just went through this deck this morning and all of this was from two weeks ago and it's all proven to work. So Philly Fed comes down now. So what we should see is now an increase in um economic activity going forwards. So I the back end of the year is going to look very different than the first quarter did. I use a lot of technical analysis. I even do it on economic data which is abhorrent to most people but it's worked for me for 35 years and I use this is a um a system called demark indicators and basically it's telling you that we should see the economic surprises starting to to rise. Bitcoin um is led by financial conditions here by 3 months a year rate of change of Bitcoin. We should start to see very dramatic movements in the price of Bitcoin going forwards. I'll show you a bit more about this in a sec. And to go back to that idea that the Trump cycle is repeating, I mean, it's an incredible repeat, but more powerful even than 2017. Those of us who were in crypto 2017, um, that's when I made the mistake around this time of year, thinking, you know what, I'm going to sell my Bitcoin at 2,000. I bought it at 200 in in 2013. It went to 20,000 at the end of the year, and I felt like a complete Um, and and I managed to buy it back in the in the in the selloff in COVID and I bought it back at 6 and a half thousand. So I sold it at 2,000 and bought it back at 6 and a half. That's how not to do things. That's called it up. Too good. Um, and so I'll try to teach you how not to do that. So the dollar Trump last time around, same thing. The markets priced in tariffs. The dollar the dollar screamed higher. It created this weak patch of growth. Trump came out and said the dollar's too high. Guess what? Scott Bessant, who's a macro hedge fund manager. I've known him for 20 years, 25 years. He understands the game. Trump said the same thing. Everyone said the same thing. The dollar's too strong. And hey, presto, the dollar has utterly collapsed. And we haven't started yet. And it's a cyclical thing. It's not the end of the dollar. That's another narrative you read. There can't be the end of the dollar right now because 87% of world trade is in dollars and 50% of the entire world's debt are in dollars. So that's 200% of global GDP is actually in dollars. So there's a shortage of dollars globally and that won't go away for a long time. So the dollar's collapsing. This kind of thing is a massive tailwind. As the dollar weakens, it means that the more global exports pick up. Everybody who's a foreigner who services US government debt, it's cheaper to service the debt. Cost them less of their domestic currency cash flows. So it's a very powerful setup. A weak dollar is incredibly good for world growth. It allows China, everybody else to start exporting, the whole world economy starts picking up. The last time this happened, the Trump cycle, well, that was the initial correction that we got. We had this whole period of correction, much like we've had now. It stopped in about March. Well, we got to about April and then we did this and from that correction low, it did a 23x. Now, I don't expect Bitcoin to do a 23x because this was much earlier in its adoption curve, but some of the others will something close to it. We've got a perfect setup, one of the best setups I've ever seen because we know the debt has to be rolled. We know the forward-looking liquidity is is coming and we know how assets react to it. Just like having a crystal ball, nothing will be perfect, but directionally it should be right. So let's look at this liquidity cycle, break it down a little bit. So when you look at it, global M2 is a good proxy for total global liquidity. Why I use this on these charts is it's more real time. Total global liquidity is um takes longer to calculate uh for the various data inputs. But Globe M2 does a very good job. Again, like the dollar version, this is wildly outperforming what happened at the Trump previous cycle. So we've got plenty of dollar liquidity. Global M2 is driven by two things. The dollar itself, which is why it's accelerating so much, and then the global financial system, that's the banks. And what they're doing now, um, all of the governments around the world and the central banks are forcing the banks to buy debts. Basel 4 is a reason behind that. the new changes to the SLR in the US. All of this is a way of forcing bonds and debt into the banking system and then forcing the banks to create more money using them as reserves. It's just another way of debasing the currency. So, Globin 2, when we look at it outright, it does the same pattern every time. These patterns repeat not out of voodoo. It's because it's driven by the debt refy cycle. The average maturity of global debt is four years. They're all between the three and fiveyear sector. There's some long-term debt. Nobody can issue long-term debt because the market won't absorb it. So, what we find is we're shorter term. Every time we do this, we have a breakout, a retest. So, this was the 1617 cycle. This is the equivalent one I think now. Breakout, retest, explodes higher, does this whole liquidity tightening. That's the bare market. That's when the economy slows down. And that's when rates go up. Does the same thing. Co gave it a false, you know, a double shot. It did it again. We're doing exactly the same thing. It's almost a complete repeat of the 2017. So, what we're seeing is global M2 at all-time highs. That should mean all-time highs Russet prices. That's how the world works. What we've also got here is global M2 against Bitcoin. So, it's the same chart, but now we can see what happens to Bitcoin. Every time this happens, it breaks out, retest, breaks out, retest, and then Bitcoin starts hitting the next leg of the banana zone. Usually, you start the banana zone a bit earlier with the breakout, you have the correction, and then it goes. And I've talked about this as three phases of the banana zone. Phase one was Q1 last year as we started to break out in all these measures. New all-time highs and liquidity, Bitcoin goes to all-time highs. We have the corrective period which is the the correction zone. And then we get the banana zone part two which is usually old season. This is the fable chart that everybody in the world has copied from me. But this is the global M2 chart versus Bitcoin with a 12 lead. It's been like voodoo. It is the most voodoo like chart I've ever come across and it works. Will it work entirely? Often what you find is later on Bitcoin outperforms global M2 because of the speculative mania that builds over time as people realize what's going on. What it tells us is the back end of this year is basically a one-way street with a few corrections. The corrections will be normal. You will be questioning me saying, "Is it all finished? Is the banana zone finished? Is it all over? Have do I need to get out now?" And generally speaking, just follow the money. It really is that simple. The other thing is okay well with the dollar and the banking systems doing this well the other thing that's doing it is the central banks China is starting to print money China has I think by my measure 3 to4 trillion to print but they need the weaker dollar they need to agree the tariffs with the US in exchange the US will continue to weaken the dollar they will allow the dollars into um the Chinese system so they can refile all of the um the dollar debts and a lot of China debts, all of the corporate debts are in dollars. So what happens is we're starting to break out and that adds to this push of liquidity. So it's not just the weaker dollar itself, it's not just the banking system, but it's the central banks starting to pump liquidity into the system as well because they've all got to roll the debt. And that's why is so cyclical. Every time the total global liquidity index breaks out, again, the same thing with M2, the market goes higher. And the reason being is I talked about the correlation. Well, here's the chart. It's a 90% correlation with weekly global liquidity. That's Bitcoin. And the NASDAQ is a stunning 95%. And so, it's hard to refute that this is not what is happening. It's so obvious, but most people want to refuse to believe it. They start midcurving the whole thing, saying, "Well, that's not the printing of money and this is not how what it is. It's so clear in the data. It's so obvious that this has been going on." And even when you listen to Scott Besson speak or Janet Yellen speak, they all talk about this. They talk it about in the terms of of basically the everything code framework. Business cycle. Business cycle is currently weak. The business cycle is the most important cyclical factor. It drives it's part of the global liquidity construct. So the business cycle actually came out today or yesterday at 48.7 slightly weaker as we've been expecting. Bitcoin's already priced it down to 47.4. So Bitcoin's already priced in the bad news. But the good news is financial conditions leaded by 9 months. It's a very useful tool and it's telling us that we're going to see the business cycle pick up super strong and this will keep going. I think we'll end up in the 60s. It also prices Bitcoin by doing this and so when you look at Bitcoin itself the moment the ISM we've had this very low period of ISM and that was driven by this very flat dollar and also by rates staying higher than normal. But as the ISM starts crossing 50, economic growth comes back, earnings come back, household earnings come back, stuff gets reinvested in markets. So at this point is when Bitcoin super accelerates. Um, and that point lies ahead. We're about to see that point now. Now, we've hadn't shown it on this presentation, but we've also imputed how it reacts to ISM. And if we get to that 57 ISM, that put puts Bitcoin at 450,000. Is it exact? Will it be exactly that? No. But all of the people are saying it's going to 150, 250 are probably scarred from last cycle without looking at the forward-looking data. So, it's incredibly positive for me. It also is what drives altcoin season. So, the fable altcoin season, everyone's like, "It's never going to happen again." It's just a function of the business cycle. Why? Because household earnings are still subdued. Because the business cycle subdued, average businesses outside of technology have subdued earnings. The moment the business cycle picks up, everyone has spare cash. Cash gets recycled into assets. People move further out the risk curve. So old coins are exactly the same as credit spreads, small caps, emerging markets, junk bonds, all of this. They're all exactly the same thing. The further out the risk curve, the business cycle actually drives all of it. It's also the same with fine wines. It's also the same with Rolex watches. All driven by the same thing. So we all want to see the ISM above 50. We've got the forward-looking data to say it's going to happen pretty soon and that's going to be a very big signal to us. Usually that will happen as Bitcoin starts breaking all-time highs which we imagine should happen pretty quickly cuz that's every time that happens when we start to see these liquidity conditions. But the problem is is nobody believes me. that trick. Everyone's like, "No, but the markets and Trump and tariffs and geopolitics and China and Russia and it's this all the and what you've all done is price in maximum fear at every point. You've got this is number of stocks with a 40 days RSI blow 30. This was before the rally really started. one of the few ever. This is the same as we had at CO when the world shut down. It's the same as the Russian default and the Asian crisis. People are crazy with fear. Investor intelligence survey percentage bullish all-time record lows. The least bullish people have ever been in history. And the forward-looking indicators tell you the economy is about to explode higher and people are massive bearish. What was interesting is we just saw the charts coming out today was that retail investors had been buying the dip. Institutions still haven't. They're all massively underweight. There's another chart. Sentiment bulls versus bears bearishness again. Alltime record highs only ever been exceeded a couple of times in history. um consumer expectations for declines in stocks near all-time record highs, the VIX index, the measure of fear of volatility in the index. Um in the top three spikes of all time and again using my demark indicators, it's generally a reversal pattern. So quickly to go through the charts, this is the most important chart for you to understand is that corrections are normal. You've just gone through a normal correction and you've managed to lose your minds, which is hilarious because we've had seven of these. And last time around, they were bigger. Back in 2017, 28% 39% 38% 27. Nobody remembers any of those. In fact, none of you remember any of these. Some of you remember this summer cuz it was pretty miserable. But that one, do you remember that or that one? No. But each time you convince yourself, it's never going to happen. It's all over. We're never going to make money. And in 2017, you did the same. And it just kept going up. Remember 23x in that whole moments of you going, "Oh, it's all over. It's never we're never going to make money." And me selling out somewhere here thinking, "Yeah, I'm really smart." No, I was a  Um so again using demark indicators these have worked stunningly well because Bitcoin is now up here. These 13s cluster 13's lows we had them in Salana as well. This chart is hilariously out of date. This was the hourly chart of Sui um when I said listen if it breaks this inverse head and shoulders on the hourly should be up. Well now it's up somewhere above the top of this chart already. When I look at the chart pattern of Suie it is a wedge pattern again. We're way up here. We're just short-term consolidating now. My guess goes to all all-time highs pretty soon. Uh it's a very bullish backdrop. Again, another hilariously out of date chart. I've been using the Sooie versus Salana chart as my kind of compass of, you know, what's the strongest performing horse in the race. Uh and this is what made me allocate all of my money essentially to Sue. Um and it's now up here. Um, so that's how fast things move. The weekly chart, you can see it was this breakout here that allowed me to think, okay, this is going to be a game for Suie to play that should outperform Salana, which is an amazing project with a fantastic community, great technology. This is the faster horse. So, that's how I look at things. The other one was interesting. Again, another hilariously out of date chart is Deep. Um, Deep exploded out of this. Um, Deep is, if people don't realize, I just got it from the asset management firm that I uh that I run. Deep was the best performing crypto asset of the top 300 in the last month and it's outperforming Sui Tiff. I mean, this is amazing. Well, it makes sense, right? This is the liquidity layer. Of course, it will. And it's earlier stage. So earlier stage um and it's it's so highly correlated. So, you know, the whole ecosystem is is looking amazing. You've seen here, you've been here, you've seen everybody talk, you've heard from all the builders, you've heard from all of the co-founders, you've heard from everybody why people care about this. It's not about the charts. The charts just reflect everything that you guys are all doing here. And it's an incredible job. The excitement of what's happening here today and over the last few days. Everybody should be proud of. Every should be proud of what's been built and the vision that these guys are executing on is simply stunning and the market is paying attention. All Russ is hilariously out of date because it's up here now. So they were everything has broken out. Everything in the entire ecosystem has broken out. All of crypto is breaking out because of the energy and what's going on here. We happen to be the fastest horse right now. Is that a guarantee? No, it's not. But, you know, I just follow the money. I follow the liquidity flows. I follow the charts. I try and make the best asset allocation decisions I can. And the best one I can think of is we're in the banana zone. So, the banana zone comes in phases. I'll show you that in a sec. But basically, uh, in that correction, using a simple measure RSI, we got to hilariously oversold what normally happens afterwards. period of sideways consolidation, break higher. We've just had the sideways consolidation. This is what happens if you put all of those periods together, create an average that looks the same as the liquidity chart. It's all the same thing, right? It's all telling you exactly the same thing, which is the banana zone is upon us. Um, that's when the dollar had this massive move. It was a four standard deviation move. One of the largest, fastest moves in the dollar's history. What happens after that? Well, after the red line, number go up. People say, "Well, we must be near the top. Why aren't we near the top?" This is everyone's fear. Always near the top. We're nowhere near. Our cycle top indicator is a long way away from anyway. In fact, we're at very subdued levels, much like we had in 2013 before the largest bull run of all time. Now, I'm not guaranteeing that, but I'm just saying probabilistically speaking, things are very positive going forwards. I see no reason for any fear. Finally, the fable banana zone chart. The construct is the same. It's not a mystery. It is a repeat of the debt cycle. They are rolling the debts. They are doing the same thing. Each cycle is not to do with a hing cycle. Nothing to do with any of that. It's all driven by liquidity cycle and and funding of debts. Each phase we get phase one of the banana zone. Banana number one. the corrective zone. Banana number two comes another correction. Banana number three. So this is the banana zone. So that's what happened in 2020 uh 2021. Off we go. Sorry, that was 2017, which again looks very similar to this one. That was the last one. Here we are now. Calmly clearer to me. I've shown you the the macro evidence, the technical evidence, the sentiment evidence. Everything here suggests to me that hold on to your hats. Don't this up. Don't lose control of your tokens. Don't use leverage. Don't get your wallets hacked. Just sit with it. Be careful. Don't get FOMO. Do all of the right things and we'll go up to the next phase of correction zone. That's going to be harder because the next one that happens, we'll have a 35% drop and you you'll all say, "Is it over?" and you'll definitely be sure it's over and everybody on Twitter will tell you it's over and it won't be over. By our work, we suggest that because of the elongation of the business cycle, because rates were higher for longer, the forward-looking liquidity suggests that again, probabilistically speaking, without any guarantees, this whole thing goes into Q1, maybe Q2 of 2026, which would align with Trump's, you know, trying to win the midterms as well. So everything's lined up for us. I think it's started. So keep the faith, keep building stuff. Uh and let's keep driving Siri forward with all of this. Thank you. Hey, thanks for sticking around to the end. Uh look, if you enjoyed it, hit the subscribe button and check out the video here on the right hand side. I'm sure you'll enjoy that one as well. And if you're ready for more, go to realvision.com/join.

Transcript for:Insights on Crypto Investment Strategies

Transcript for:
Insights on Crypto Investment Strategies