Evolution of Lego: From Toy to Collector's Item

Introduction

• Recent thefts of Lego sets reported, with significant values involved (e.g., $1,500 theft).
• Increase in Lego thefts over the past decade, including a notable $300,000 theft.
• High-value Lego sets can exceed prices of modern electronics (e.g., iPhone 15).

Historical Background

Origins

• Lego began with wooden toys before transitioning to plastic bricks in 1949.
• Early patents existed for plastic bricks (e.g., Kitty Craft in 1939 and 1945).

Initial Success

• Early Lego sets lacked instructions; first gift sets were priced around 25 Danish Crone (~$60 today).
• Key release in 1955: Town Plan set enabling creative building.
• 1958: Introduction of the stud and tube design for interlocking bricks, creating stability.

Growth and Innovations

1960s - 1980s

• By the 1960s, plastic bricks became the focus of Lego.
• Introduction of themed sets in the 1970s (e.g., 1978 Space Cruiser) expanded building options.
• The mini-figure was introduced, enhancing the play experience.

Challenges in the 1990s

• Late 1990s saw a decline in sales; Lego expanded into theme parks and media, which diluted focus.
• The Galidor theme was criticized for straying from traditional Lego values.
• Lego experienced its first financial losses in 2003.

Rise of Adult Fans

Emergence of Adult Lego Fans

• Adult fans (AFOL) began gaining visibility; many had played with Lego as children.
• Conventions in the early 2000s fostered community among adult fans.
• Lego's initial response was dismissive, viewing adult fans as an annoyance.

The 2000s Transformation

• Recognition of adult fans led to significant changes in Lego's strategies.
• In 2004, a new CEO initiated grassroots collaboration with fans.
• Release of complex sets targeted towards adults (e.g., 2007 Millennium Falcon).
• Partnership with the adult community brought innovation back to Lego products.

Pricing and Market Dynamics

Price per Piece Analysis

• Price per piece remains stable over two decades, with slight variations depending on set complexity.
• Example: 2007 Millennium Falcon (10 cents per piece) compared to newer versions.
• Increased set complexity leads to higher average prices but maintains a consistent price per piece.

Resale Market Impact

• Lego's strategy to retire sets creates an artificial scarcity, driving up secondhand market prices.
• Adult collectors view Lego as an investment; some collections worth thousands.

Current Trends and Future Outlook

Targeting Adult Markets

• Lego's strategy now includes targeting adult collectors with specialized sets.
• Expansion of the KOL (Kids-Of-Legos) industry as adult fandoms grow.
• Introduction of 18+ sets and themes appealing to adult aesthetics.

Community and Fandom

• Community-driven innovation keeps the brand relevant.
• Lego's inclusion of diverse themes and representation is essential for accessibility.

Conclusion

• Lego has evolved from a toy for children to a collectible medium for all ages.
• Continued success hinges on maintaining engagement with both kids and adults while addressing pricing and accessibility concerns.
• The enduring nature of Lego as a medium for creativity and storytelling remains a core part of its identity.