a thai opposition party is facing the axe for backing the botched election bid by a princess what does it mean for democracy as thailand prepares for its first vote since the military took power five years ago this is inside story [Music] hello and welcome to the program i'm martine dennis thailand's election commission has recommended the dissolution of the party that chose a princess to be its candidate for prime minister the march 24th general election in this constitutional monarchy will be the first since a military coup in 2014. we'll be discussing the impact of the looming ban on the thai rats party with our guests in just a moment first this report from our correspondent wayne hey in bangkok two weeks ago the thai ruxa chat party entered the political spotlight as they launched their election campaign the leaders talked about the need for thailand to innovate [Applause] but the candidate chosen to stand as prime minister proved to be an innovation too far in a country where the monarchy is regarded as above politics princess ubonrat was ruled ineligible after the palace said her nomination was in violation of royal tradition and culture and highly inappropriate after a complaint from an independent constitution monitoring organization the election commission has recommended that the court dissolve the party if the court agrees it would be the third dissolution of a political party backed by former prime minister taksin shinawatra who lives in exile after his overthrow in the 2006 military coup tuxen shinowat has spent his political career fighting the establishment and on friday thais thought he had staged a major coup himself by having a member of the royal family fronting the campaign for one of his parties but it appears to have been a major miscalculation dissolution would also mean the members of the party's executive committee would be banned from politics for a minimum of 10 years last week the party's advisor and a long-time texan ally told al jazeera about his concerns that the campaign and next month's election won't be free and fair it is designed in the first place so that the junta will be able to extend its power thailand's military leaders have formed the government since the latest coup in 2014 removed taksin's main party pure thai it's still able to take part in next month's vote the decision by the election commission to ban the thai ruxa chart party came the day after a tv station owned by the shinawats was ordered off the air for 15 days the government's national broadcasting body said voice tv was showing provocative content that caused confusion and social division the fact that the punishment is dealt out at this time right about when we're heading towards a potential return to democracy is highly inappropriate there are few guarantees in thai politics but it's likely there'll be more volatility before thailand's first general election in almost five years due on march 24th wayne hey al jazeera bangkok so let's have a closer look at where thailand stands today the current government came to power in 2014 in the 12th military coup since 1932. the head of the military council prayuth chanocha promised new elections within months of taking over but that's turned into almost five years now there's a new constitution in place which many people actually think preserves the power of the military it's thought that the only real challenge comes from parties that are aligned to taxing shinowat like the thai raksa chat party which may now be out of the contest right let's introduce our guests now we've got two guests coming from the capital bangkok by skype we have kreng sak chaiwa rongak he is an academic and a politician and a former executive board member for the thailand democrat party in konkan in northeastern thailand via skype we've got david strekfus who is an historian and an independent scholar he's also in bangkok we have shawn bun prakang who's a former national security advisor to the yingluck government welcome to you all sean let me start with you um it seems to have been a massive gamble then for this party to have chosen uh the princess uh to to to front their bid for the elections how big of a disrupter was this decision to go with the princess actually it depends on whose points of view you're looking at from those who believe in democracy i believe that they are they are ecstatic with this choice she has resigned herself from the monarchical system and she decided to play and in good faith everybody believed that of all the candidate she's capable of leading tairaksa shot to victory in combination with pure thai really and our possible alliance will believe in democracy is that was it otherwise was it really wise sorry sean was it really a strategic decision taken with a view of incorporating the monarchy in in thai politics everybody knows that it's uh it's illegal it's unconstitutional the royal family are supposed to stay out of politics and you can't even use their images in campaigning so it was designed to fail but but that's the final point that i'm trying to point out before that she resigned from the monarchy that's her assumption and it was done in good faith it may have been risky to those who disagree those who believe in tradition and less are less open-minded about what thailand face in the future now that's also an accepted view by those who who in fact associated with the the junta or those elite that are behind this move to more or less uh dissolve the tarak tairasa chart party now that's understood right and david um what do you think the intention behind the nomination of the princess actually was and and what would have what could have occurred if indeed it had succeeded i mean there could have been an interesting fusion couldn't there in terms of of interest in thai politics yeah i mean i don't i don't know that we know her motivations other than that she's trying to create a role for herself outside at least official uh royal family them so i think she would have been really interesting because um it is only there's been a long feeling of of kind of questioning about the monarchy um as the palace that seemed to seem to be on the side of the yellow shirts um or the the their opponents back in uh uh five to ten years ago so if the if her nomination had gone through it would have been i mean it's not interesting only that she wanted to become a politician but she wanted to become a politician with a very grassroots party and that would have that would have perhaps been a bridge between the grassroots and the monarchy in a way that's never been seen before right and creon sack um the fact now that the party that chose to take this rather risky uh gamble uh the tiraxic party now faces the the distinct possibility of being dissolved of being shut down i mean that impacts upon the general democratic landscape of the country and makes it obviously much less much less of a of a choice much less of a pluralistic uh situation for voters come march it's is a subsidiary party to the pure thai party in the same cluster in the in on the side of dr taksin the former prime minister therefore the substantiveness of the number of seeds would be not as many as if we've been dissolved on the protein main party but definitely every part every party seeds counts in this election it's total total understandable how dr thokson would like to win this election by backing a number of parties in the same cluster well planned to win the election in the largest number possible start to allow it to form a government right so so are you saying are you saying queen sack that if the thai raksa party is dissolved it doesn't really have a massive impact upon the democratic offering for the people of thailand is that what you're saying it will not have a massive impact in terms of seats that dr tuksin's cluster of parties will gain but it will have an impact definitely on the lease less likely chance for pure thai clusters among all the parties combined to have the large majority of the two houses combined 376 that mean the majority of the local house of 500 plus the upper house of senators of 200 seats that will require total together 376 and this will be impossible for pure thai to come up with the number of seats right he's already stand a good chance if pyroxide charge came in it would be a better chance but now being is going to be dissolved lightly and it's going that way right then it will be less chance for sure all right sean coming to you now when looking at thai politics it's often described as being pretty much bipolar uh in terms of there being the military and prius on the one hand aligned perhaps with conservative uh the conservative values of the country the elite and indeed the monarchy and on the other hand taksin and his affiliates who are much more populous and and and derive a huge amount of popularity from from the rural uh communities in thailand is that the best way of looking at thai politics today as you get ready for an election next month is more or less based upon that you have to understand that the junta more or less for the past five years have not improved the country economically and because of that there are enthusiasm about this upcoming election and the system is designed it is rigged against uh against pure thai thai russia chart and other alliance essentially it's like you you have a party where the military support poland basharat has an additional 250 senator to back you that's more than half the vote which means that the military could hardly lose it's like giving a four goal leads before the football match and then you go under play and and this is a fair play and therefore the the divide the political divide between uh the province and bangkok and the elite it's more or less uh us still there that has not changed substantially tairak sachar is a big equation where the main charter was designed to bust up more or less put high strength but outside democracy side decided by creating thai rashad which will project to win roughly between two to three million vote it could add a mixture of three to sixty vote so is is by by election commission and the constitutional court sure to dissolve this it would cut down a democracy side by huge amount of numbers right david when um prior and his colleagues came to power in 2014 they made promises they made promises of of maintaining stability of getting rid of corruption and indeed rather impossibly perhaps restoring happiness uh to thailand i mean what they have done i mean they're fulfilled uh this promise in part there has been stability in thailand since 2014 uh yes shawn's pointed out that the economy is maybe underperformed but that is a regional uh issue as well it's not specific to thailand is it i mean and they've also guided the country through that seismic uh event of of losing king bhumibol well i mean i mean part of the reason for take their part of their reasoning for taking power was so they could oversee that make sure they got the candidate they wanted into that into the uh kingship so you know is that is that does that change things a lot i mean i i believe that dichotomy you talk about is more anti-dictatorship versus dictatorship and there's no it's not just toxin but there's a lot of other parties thailand politically has taken steps backwards every time there's a coup it sort of decimates a lot of the the infrastructure political infrastructure that democrats keep trying to build up and yet it gets knocked back down again we kind of start off start off and now we're going to have an election in which you know it's been rigged it'll look free and fair on that day but the new constitution and and uh the stacked uh senate almost ensures that the military will stay in power in some form and they'll merely be a democratic veneer right uh queen sack let me put that to you because of course you're a former mp for the democrat uh party i mean is that your rather gloomy uh outlook with regard to to the exercise of democracy in thailand uh when people uh presumably go to the polls next month i mean do you think it's a pretty much a waste of time the uh constitution already has the military firmly rooted in power come what may it's better than no election let me say it forth rightly i am for election for democracy and therefore i like to have election as soon as we can rather than have no election at all but to be fair to student what happening the rule being written up in the constitution is clearly favoring the military side and the clusters that the military try to form to have the majority in the two houses so that they can propel back prime minister prayuth once again and therefore without going to election i have a good guess whether i like it or not i would not say but basically the prime minister purdue have a good chance if election happened on the 24th of march to return to power because all he needs is just 200 seats from the senate senate that he can appoint potentially plus seats from the 500 seats lower house and that would give him the majority of the two houses combined right that means you can win election with them with 126 out of 500 seats and therefore you clearly could win right and it's not difficult for you to muscle that numbers by whatever we means and ways you can by all bringing all the parties that want to be in government together especially if my former party joined in it would be easier if they don't join in there will be a different story right and now it doesn't it's not clear whether the my democrat former party and let me say his former party yes i'm independent right now yeah absolutely democrat may join not join depends on the who is the party after the election right kreinster thank you for that let me go to sean sean um you all seem to be agreeing that there is a democratic deficit in the political system right now you don't have a huge amount of optimism as to what march uh elections will yield tell me about the mood of the thai people it wasn't that long ago that we saw bangkok pretty much uh uh uh laid uh laid to ho taken hostage pretty much by the the the different sides the the yellow shirts the red shirts who basically seized uh control of bangkok and and put a stop to everything are people in in thailand prepared to take to the streets again do you think i i believe under this reign that will change considerably we were told that those are the things of the past we have accepted that there is a upcoming election and mostly the red have come to realize that for us to take up to the street it would be a a no-win situation and the the antagonistic attitude i believe the bangkok and still feel strongly against the provincial that has somewhat diluted somewhat and they also you have to remember that the new crops of voters 6 million who a new political party a future forward party are making inroads that candidate are really attractive trying to predict trying to predict what would happen in the future is really difficult but thai are mostly are really really hopeful before this thai raksa chat incident they thought that with with the equation from different parties from new blood we could look forward and the moods are now unknown but i believe that no one really really changed sight for those who want to vote for puerta or thai raksa chart they would they would win substantial vote in combination with the new six million uh blood i i believe that we have a good chance to win the election but yet not able to form the majority uh to form the government right but then after two months general brayut may have a hard time uh forming the government and we can vote down uh no confidence when the budget times come when the senate 250 vote no longer matter right okay david so sean is suggesting that uh i guess in a free and fair electoral system that those supporting the redshirts those affiliated to taxin would win hands down in thailand but he's suggesting that uh even though the constitution is weighted in favor of prior and his colleagues that there could be a parliamentary answer a parliamentary fight back uh should the red-shirted allies of taxin do well in the election yeah i mean i mean they they might get 300 there i think they were hoping to come you know cobble together 375 i think that's doubtful now it might have been interesting to have the princess stayed in so what would happen now at least when there's elections there's a lessening of the more restrictive laws um affecting the the media and affecting public debate and so that's good but you know at the same time they're so hamstrung the constitution is almost impossible to to amend at least under under the present rules so you know i mean there'll be some public discourse at least after an election but it you know this this particular uh configuration will not reflect the people's voice it will reflect the military still remaining or having a strong role in any future thailand and uh creamsack we've seen uh this kind of formula in other parts of the world which can be pretty um uh dangerous actually because people if they feel that their their political will has not been reflected in elections they can get rather angry how do you think the people of thailand might react if they feel this way come march in the elections i feel that the thai people are more tolerant than most around the world and for them to come out it has to be agitated badly given the situation of the past conflicts in the last more than a decade i think people have learned that it's not very useful to fight on the street it will not bring much materialism of what they want and therefore the court case are going on for those who are in the street and violate the law and today we just had an example of one side the yellow shirt being thrown in jail what they did on the street and i think this if that is a pattern very few will come out in the future and therefore i have great doubt unless there's some more factors being engineered or naturally agitated it would not be likely that people come on the street and uh sean if this constitution which is what a couple of years old uh if this constitution remains on the statute books in thailand i mean that's pretty much the end of taxin's uh power uh electoral power if you like in thailand isn't it do you think that uh taksin and his clique are prepared to give up give up on their on their bid to rule uh thailand i i don't believe mr saxon will give up but i do believe this is the reason why uh to affect the changes within the the charter to rewrite it he believed that if the the princess obama joined his party that type of change could uh could more or less a revolution thailand in the sense that when he became the prime minister a lot of things were happening the uh what we call one stop shop the 30 baht program more or less diversified funds to the provincial and that's why he held the affection however at the end the hopeful side of thai like mr cranston suggested that's why we are there we don't believe there will be a street protest and in a way we have hope for the future but it will be interrupted should the constitutional court uh make the ruling to to more or less dissolve tyrakta but that's really not a hopeful sign for thailand for the future either sean bumper kong uh david strekfos and crean charlemonsack thank you all very much indeed for having a very interesting conversation about the situation in thailand today and thank you as ever for watching the program you can see it again anytime you like you can go to the website aljazeera.com if you want more discussion there's always our facebook page that's facebook.com forward slash aj inside story and there's always a twitter sphere as well our handle is at aj inside story i'm at martine dennis from the whole team here in doha it's bye for now you