Transcript for:
Market Trends and Key Levels

[Music] What's going on everyone? The stock market is making history as it's looking to take the top spot from the dot bubble for the longest uptrend ever. And with historic trends come great opportunities, especially considering how brokerages are lending out margin debt at the highest rate since the COVID uptrend. We only have one more day left of the week, so let's finish this week strongly. It's an exciting time to be a trader. [Music] It really is. I can't believe the spy made new all-time highs once again, but I guess I can because this is just the type of environment that the market has been in lately. We continue to see good pushes and good breakouts to new highs. I will say at the end of the day today, the market was a little bit shaky with that close under 635, but not overly concerning considering all the good price action that we've been seeing. Like if we just scroll back and throw Monday on the left side of the screen here, we can see that whenever we kicked off this week, things were a little bit shaky into Tuesday. But as the week went on, you know, the market obviously accelerated a whole lot and we got all the way up to 636 here today. Like you said, Mike, this is a historic streak. The NDX at least, uh, the number of consecutive days above its 20-day moving average is now above 60. Obviously, that is a huge number there. Today, technically day 64. So, that's kind of what we're looking at here with the data. And it goes all the way back to the dot bubble. Mike, whenever I look at like, okay, what happened last time during the dot bubble? We saw a pretty big jump, right? Uh, that streak was pretty insane. And as we can see here, it resulted in a great uptrend. Following the streak though, I'm sure a lot of people were expecting a lot of pullback. And you know, it did get a little bit shaky, but honestly, Mike, I mean, looking forward into 1999 into 2000, things actually continued to uh uptrend there. No complaints there. And looking a little bit deeper at, you know, some of the behavior we're seeing in the market right now is there is just a buying frenzy as we know. And I saw something very interesting today where margin debt with US stocks just passed $1 trillion dollar for the first time in history. So basically in like especially in like a short-term sense, there's a lot of people borrowing a lot of money to go out there and buy stocks right now. As in June, brokerages extended 9.4% 4% more credit to traders, which is the biggest month overmonth jump since November of 2020, which is pretty crazy in my opinion, especially as we remember the giant uptrend we saw during that uh 2020 year. And what I think it really goes to show more than anything else is that there's just a lot of buying happening right now. And we could see that um historically speaking when we are in situations like we are in now the market does tend to continue higher as we can see from this data here. Um whether you're looking at the market in a short-term sense like a month out or even a little bit longer like three six months out or even like a year out the market generally does uh pretty well. It definitely does. you know, seeing the one month data come in percent higher at 60.5%. That's probably pretty good. It doesn't really like wow me though. But whenever we get to 3 months, 6 months, things definitely start to pick up a little bit more. So, it's not like we need to be too scared like you're saying of these all-time highs. And I think that we can even go back to that chart, looking at the previous NDX streak and even looking and saying, okay, you know, after the streak ended, of course, things slowed down for a little bit, maybe a few weeks, maybe a month, but ultimately as time went on, the market ended up chopping higher, but you can tell there was a little bit of volatility and chop mixed in. It wasn't quite as straight up like as this overall streak. So maybe as this streak does come to an end, maybe expect a little bit of choppy uh more of a choppier environment we would say going forward. But overall, Mike, I'm still pretty bullish here in the short term. And I know a lot of traders keep trying to call the top and everything like that. But I really like the wave that we're on. And there's a lot of stocks moving on this wave as well. And we're going to get into some of the fun ones here soon. Definitely. So, looking a little bit closer at SPY though, you know, we are hugging this new all-time high right around $636 for SPY. What are some key levels on your radar heading into tomorrow? Yeah, of course 636 has to be on the radar. Lots of touches there today. Lots of rejections. So, if we get a good break out of that tomorrow, go ahead and watch the SPY back to the upside. And honestly, with the way the SPY has been moving, I don't think that 640 is totally out of the question tomorrow. Now, that would be quite the jump up to 640, but I think that's going to be a big psychological level in people's minds. I also think 638 would probably be a level overhead to watch for if we do see the SPY continue to jump. Remember though, we're in uncharted territory and these levels have not been tested yet. So, of course, obviously, uh, adapt as the day goes on. If the SPY does pull back though, Mike, I thought that the low of pre-market today around 63360 was a pretty important level. We saw a couple touches there yesterday. And if we start to break below that, it would start to break this short-term higher low trend. We can see that over the over the course of this week from the low of Tuesday, it's just been a high low fest. Beautiful. Beautiful. I was also looking at that like 633 area from yesterday. There were a handful of touches um and you know support holds at that level. So that's like a potential like area where if we do see a little bit of a pullback. We might see some buyer step in there. You know, it's not the craziest biggest level ever, but I wouldn't be surprised if we did see um a little bit of buying step in at that point. But overall skies are mostly clear. There's a lot of bullishness and it is certainly a fun time to be a trader, especially with spies. So um good stuff there, Tom. But let's talk a little bit more about uh some of these crazy nuclear stocks as that has been where some of the most insane and reliable up movement has been all year long. Stocks like OKLO, SMR, uh BE, NE, UU, UEC, and so many others are just exploding right now. Tom, what is going on here? Yeah, there's actually a lot going on. And I know that we've been talking about this a lot, but there's been a lot of demand for powering these AI systems, whether it's cloud systems, whether it's just AI in general. You know, companies like Google, Meta, Microsoft, uh I mean, you name it, right? The these companies need power to do what they're doing with AI. And these companies like, let's say, SMR, new scale power, right? They make small modular reactors which could have which could obviously be a pretty big market for these companies looking for more power. Um now one of the more popular tickers in the short term has been Oaklo of course. Uh they actually popped up to a new all-time high today breaking out above $73. Uh they did hit around 77 today and slowed down a little bit but just going into like a fivem minute chart here that movement from open was parabolic. And it's not just them. Like you said, Mike, there were tons of stocks doing this. Like Bloom Energy is another stock, you know, now this isn't necessarily a nuclear stock. This stock focuses more on hydrogen fuel cells. They they have some solid oxide fuel cell uh technology that they use obviously to get power uh obviously a little bit different than nuclear energy, but we like to talk about all the possibilities whenever we're talking about powering these AI data centers and things of that nature. But Mike, I feel like this sector is awesome in the short term. And just seeing like stocks like BE up 22% and Oaklo up 11.38% with that type of price action, they have to be on the radar. Yeah, there's no way they they're they're not right. Like when Oaklo's at $75 a share and when you look at the stock over the past year, it basically went from you could say lows of like $5 a share back from like the middle to end of 2024. The uptrend has been insane and even though it has like some really big swings like it's just such a crazy asymmetric stock and it opens up so many trading opportunities in so many different ways as we'll talk about as the video progresses. But basically like you mentioned we are kind of seeing like a tsunami of you know just like news and events and catalyst driving this area of the market higher. uh like you said there's a ton of demand to power these massive AI data centers and a lot of these uh stocks and companies are you know filling those gaps but at the same time we're also seeing a lot of government support where uh basically the US energy secretary is pushing pro- nuclear policies and you know making it uh you know just easier to get faster approvals and removing a lot of the red tape and also we're just seeing like a lot of straight up momentum hype and just euphoria with these stocks as well. Oaklo actually has a 15% short float, which you know isn't anything like too crazy, but it definitely helps add to the bullishness, especially with some of these recent short squeezes we saw this week. Definitely. I feel like the short squeezes have been in the headlines nonstop and if we start to see these nuclear stocks pop off a little bit more, it might just fuel even more of the rally. Right. Bloom Energy has a 23% short float. This one went parabolic today, up 22.95%. I would say this one's a little bit less popular than um than Oakllo is, but we can see on the chart, you know, it's definitely no stranger of good price action as it broke above a very key resistance today. I thought it was good how Oaklo broke above their key resistance as well. So, just amazing price action here and keep your eyes on them of course for plays. I know uh tomorrow morning I'm sure they're going to be first thing on the radar. Definitely. Okay, so looking a little bit closer, especially at Oakllo, what are what are some more specific levels you're looking at for potential trading opportunities? Yeah, like I talked about, you know, it has that wick extending up here to that all-time high recently around $73 to 7350. That's going to be a very big level for tomorrow. If we go to like a fiveminute chart and we zoom in a little bit, there was some hits right around this double top. I'm just going to call it a double top at 7650. I think it'll be very crucial for Oaklow to ultimately break above 77, just above that little double top from earlier in the day. If we can break 77, that would be crucial for this one. Now, this stock popped up pretty much $10 from open today, right? So, I'm not going to necessarily look for another $10 jump tomorrow, but I definitely think pushing $80 plus would be a really good target. And once we get to 80, you know, you might be able to implement some type of scaling out strategy, like have some type of like five to 10% stale uh trailing stop-loss on some options or something like that. And like also if you look at Oaklo in a broader sense as well, like maybe on the daily chart, you can see that it goes in these phases where like when it's running and it has momentum, it's just insane. Uh we could see uh multiple instances of this, but basically the more it just like rips to the upside, of course, the more people talk about it, the more shorts that squeezed out, the more you know buyers that come in and just like the crazier the uptrend gets and that's where a lot of the opportunity is. In the worst case scenario where the stock does not continue its uptrend, then you don't have to force a play on it. like uh it's just an area of the market to pay attention to where if we do see a continuation, there can be some very good asymmetric opportunities. So, keep that in mind. You don't you don't you don't have to and should not just blindly jump into this or any other stock that is, you know, moving with a ton of momentum. You know, of course, you want to trade it in a smart way. And I would say the same thing can be said for ticker symbol BE. Yeah, I would say so. You know, looking at those stocks, I mean, they're so parabolic, so crazy. I definitely would not jump in. And I would try to even find some confirmation maybe, you know, like have like a clear break of $34 for example with be at that high of day or something of that nature for sure. But Mike, let's do a little update on Tesla really quick. Unfortunately, Tesla continued down this morning and even in after hours last night. They ended up closing down 8.2% today and tested a crucial $300 support. If that support gives out over the next couple days, it is going to be crazy. But Elon actually ended up coming out last night and saying that, you know, that he's warning of a few rough quarters. And that's definitely not something that you want to hear, right? Uh I will say there is some optimism that like Tesla's robo taxi uh news and and all of their startups with the robo taxis could end up fueling maybe better revenue, better numbers down the line. But for right now, of course, like Elon's saying, a few rough quarters might be in store for him. Yeah. And that just uh it's tough for Tesla investors because it's been a rough year for them, not only in terms of just like the falling uh price, but also just like a you know, just crazy volatility. So, when we look at Tesla right now, Tom, we are testing that key $300 support. So, this is going to be a big point for Tesla shares. What are you seeing in terms of levels here? Yeah, it's pretty funny. In yesterday's video, I talked about I said, "Okay, you know, if Tesla's downtrend's really bad, I could probably see a drop to $300 over the next few days to couple weeks." Well, my gosh, it happened in one night. Uh, you know, in his earnings, right? It happens. Uh, looking at Tesla, I know that we've been watching this wedge in the short term. The lower end of this wedge is actually right at $300 where Tesla's sitting. So, if we break under this key $300 level, definitely watch Tesla down. This is going to be a very major psychological level. And if it breaks, I could actually see Tesla moving down to around 275, which is its next larger support that I see on the chart. So, that's really what I'm watching for with Tesla. And I'm waiting for this like overall trend of higher lows to give out here, especially given the negative price action here. Yeah. And again, there are multiple ways to trade this. Of course, in a shorter term sense, we know Tesla's one of the strongest moving momentum driven stocks out there. So, of course, you can help push this stock lower, whether it be with puts or short shares. Um, if we do see a break past 300, and for those of you who like Tesla in a longer term sense, you might uh be happy to see Tesla fall so you can accumulate more shares. So, again, when you have a stock like Tesla at a key level, there are multiple opportunities that come from it. Keep a close eye on watch. And then Tom, another thing that we definitely want to mention while we're on the topic of earnings is that we do have a handful of other stocks that will be important throughout the rest of the week. Intel reported after the bell today. They didn't really move too much in after hours, but ticker symbol CNC reports before the bell tomorrow and uh it's going to be a pretty big report. So on July 2nd, the stock got absolutely destroyed and basically over the past month or so, the stock is down over 50%. So, this earnings report is kind of going to either be like the nail in the coffin or it's going to be like the, you know, the the the resurgence of this stock. They uh basically pulled their guidance and there's a lot of uh you could say negative uh perception going on with healthc care stocks right now in general. So, just definitely keep this on the radar for a potential big moving play tomorrow. Again, they report earnings before the bell, but I just wanted to share it ahead of time. Yeah, I actually love going back on the CNC daily chart. Maybe looking at some of these recent lows. I know there was that big money play recently on CNC, so a lot of people are interested in it. You know, looking at it, there's a huge support around 24 to $25 that this stock held in the past, and it's getting very close to that now. I would think that this stock could find some support here. Hopefully, the earnings help it uh get a nice bounce back to the upside. And Mike, there actually is some economic activity tomorrow morning. one hour before open we are going to get durable goods orders so be ready for that. I don't think it's going to be that market moving but hey if it comes in outside of the consensus then you never know. Sounds good. Well, let's get right to the good stuff then which are some setups and predictions and a stock that is close on watch is Oxy. I know I mentioned this one in yesterday's video but I'm still definitely a fan. Again, there was a recent big money play with this one. The stock moved up slightly today. Nothing too crazy, but we did see some pretty good positivity with other somewhat similar energy tickers like CVX and XOM, which was nice to see. Uh, basically, I really like the chart setup we're seeing with OXI or OXY, and I think it's making for like a really good riskreward. I especially like how it is continuing to hold this pattern of higher lows ever since the April low and it's definitely on my bullish radar not only for tomorrow but especially over the coming weeks. Yeah, I really like that pattern there. And if we continue to see these oil stocks pop off, I would think Oxy could be a great opportunity for a possible dip by here back to the upside. So, I will be watching it very closely as well. With my first stock, I'm looking at ARM, and I'm really watching a key resistance overhead at $162. If we're able to break above 162, I would contemplate playing ARM to the upside, but I am very worried about this overhead resistance. If we go to the book map here, we can see that there's a ton of sellers stacked up overhead on ARM, but there's pretty much no buyers, which is kind of funny, especially around the uh end of the day today. Anyways, so I'm definitely going to be watching this one closely for a possible breakdown and maybe even rejection up around that key 162 mark. If we pull back under 15950 tomorrow, which was a pretty nice support from today, I will be watching it down. But like I said, you know, if we do end up getting that 162 breakout, maybe watch playing it up as well. You know, of course, I'll always be adaptable out there. Beautiful. All right. Another stock that is close on watch is Hood, and it is to the downside. So, this one's a little bit more speculative and it's one that I think uh some people aren't going to be too happy with given how many Hood bulls there are out there, but basically Hood is pulling back a little bit in the short term. They've been crushing it over the past few months. I really like them for the long term, but in the short term, I think they're a bit overextended and they are testing a key level at $100 a share. If we see a break through this, then I think it'll offer a great riskreward playing the move lower. Again, we need to see a break below $100. I want to see the stock crack first. If the stock does not give out and we don't see like people like, you know, rushing for the exit all at once, then I think playing it down is almost impossible to justify. Um, but like we've seen in the past, when we do see pullbacks with this stock, it's a volatile, strong moving stock and it has like really good asymmetric moves and I think there's going to be opportunity with it. Uh the question of whether it happens tomorrow uh is really going to be a function of you know how this price reacts off this key support at 100. Yeah, this is a very big level here for Robin Hood and like you said in the past like whenever this stock drops it can drop in a pretty massive way for a few weeks to even a few months at a time. So I would definitely contemplate trading it down if $100 does break. So I will be keeping it on the radar as well. Uh, with my next stock, I'm looking at BMNR for a possible move back to the upside. Now, I'm watching this key $40 support on BMNR. And if $40 ends up giving out, then it's a pretty much a no trade for me. So, if we end up waking up tomorrow and, you know, we're underneath uh 40, don't even look at BMR. But if we're able to break this recent high from today, very close to $45, then watch it up. I thought it was a very nice double top. And this stock deals with Ethereum. And of course, Tom Lee is uh now chairman of the board with this company, so keep it on the radar. It had some crazy action a few weeks ago, and it's been consolidating in the short term, but I uh I'm definitely looking at it for a possible dip by if it keeps holding. I am skeptical, though. You know, of course, this is a pretty risky stock out there. Sounds good. All right, Tom. Well, let's jump right into today's momentum plays then. And with the first one, we have new scale, ticker symbol SMR, to the upside. If SMR can break above $51.50, watch it up. It's a pretty nice intraday level. All right, with the next one, we have Advanced Money Dispenser, ticker symbol AMD, to the upside. Yeah, another nice day by them. If they can break 164, watch them up. And then with the last one, we have Coreweave, ticker symbol CRWV, to the downside. Yeah, all this growth stock action here in the short term. Coreweave just can't get it going. If they break under 120, watch for a downside continuation. Sounds good. So, keep these plays on watch for potential continuations if and only if they break through the levels listed uh for tomorrow. But of course, trade smart, trade disciplined, and besides that, let's jump right into today's $1.1 million big money trade. And we are looking at ticker symbol ASHR where the trader bought the 32 strike call options that expire on December 19th of 2025. Uh for my advanced traders out there, this is also technically a call debit spread where they shorted the 35 strike call options. And basically this is a bullish trade where they want this ETF to go up. Uh ASHR is an ETF that follows Chinese stocks and it has just been crushing it over recent weeks and months. Uh we could confidently say that the trade relations with China and the rest of the world are becoming less uncertain which definitely helps ease investors fears and in turn push prices higher. Um it is a little bit more of like a high-risisk highreward trade given the strike prices, but overall very exciting and the already existing uh ASHR big money trade is doing very well. It really is. I'm going to point an arrow to where they entered here on June 24th. That was a great entry. It never actually fell back below and then we had got that nice rip back to the upside here all the way up to like $29. This has been one hell of a run here for these uh China stocks and even the China ETFs. Zooming out on ASHR a bit more. I mean, this stock can get pretty parabolic. Look at the way it moved last year in 2024. I know China stocks had a period last year where they all exploded in a very crazy way. But, you know, it just kind of shows the potential that ASHR could have to the upside. I know a lot of people probably think that this one's overextended. So, I hope that, you know, going back and showing that might calm some of those fears a little bit. It is good though to, you know, have a little bit of uh of uh mindfulness of it being overextended, though. It is getting a little high. But I will say, Mike, this has been quite the uptrend. And, you know, if we start to see a China deal get talked about a bit more, then this could be even better. Yeah, that would be nice. So, either way, keep a close eye on this stock going forward, uh, it's definitely moving quite a bit. But Tom, before we continue on any further, we have to give a mega giant shout out to today's member of the day, Danny in the Stocked up trading floor, who crushed it out of the park today with over $20,000 in gains with Tesla and a bunch of kind words as well. Huge shout out to you, Danny. It is awesome to see such a great day and keep on rolling. This uh this post is pretty awesome. Huge shout out to you. And it was a great day in the profits channel in general. As we scroll through it, we can see there's a lot of action. Um, S, Devonte, Bob, so many people crushed it today. Shout outs all around. If you guys are into short-term trading, definitely make sure to check out that first link in the description in the comments down below to get in on the action. You can save quite a bit with coupon code big money. Basically, you get access to a bunch of great education, insights, bots, resources, live events, big money trades, and so much more if we covered everything. This video would be quite literally at least 3 to four hours long. You could also chat with Tom and myself all day long. So, definitely check it out. It's the place to be. And again, you can save quite a bit with the link in the description in the comments down below. But we are set for a pretty exciting day in the market tomorrow. There should be some good action. So, let's make sure to end the week on a great note. Thank you all so much for watching and let's crush it in the market tomorrow.