Power in the 21st Century

Introduction

Power is changing in the 21st century.
Two types of changes:
- Power Transition: Shift of power among states, notably from West to East.
- Power Diffusion: Transfer of power from all states (West/East) to non-state actors.

Often referred to as the rise of Asia, more accurately the recovery of Asia.
Historical context: In 1800, Asia produced over half of the world's output; by 1900, it was reduced to one fifth due to the Industrial Revolution.
By the 21st century, Asia is regaining its population and product share.
Narratives of Power Transition:
- Rise and fall of great powers is a common narrative, currently highlighting China's rise and the U.S.'s decline.
- Historical cycles of perceived American decline: 1958 (Sputnik), 1973 (oil embargo), 1980s (economic transitions).
- Projections such as Goldman Sachs' prediction of China surpassing the U.S. by 2027 are overly simplistic.

Significant decrease in computing and communication costs since 1970.
Technology access now widespread; previously restricted capabilities are available to more actors.
Non-state actors play a significant role, both positive (e.g., Oxfam) and negative (e.g., Al Qaeda).
The concept of war has evolved, emphasizing non-state threats like terrorism.

Definition of Power: Ability to affect others to get desired outcomes.
- Methods: Coercion (sticks), Payments (carrots), Attraction (soft power).
Soft power: An essential and often neglected aspect of power; achieving goals through attraction and influence without force or payment.
Narratives and Influence:
- Importance of effective narratives in global power dynamics.
- Example: 2008 financial crisis seen as U.S. decline.

Historical examples: Peloponnesian War and World War One illustrate fear-induced conflicts.
Modern context: Fear of China's rise could lead to dangerous policies.
Importance of managing transitions without fear-based reactions.

Analogy: Three-dimensional chess game:
- Top Board (Military Power): U.S. as the sole superpower.
- Middle Board (Economic Power): Multi-polar balance among U.S., Europe, China, Japan.
- Bottom Board (Transnational Relations): Chaotic distribution, requiring cooperation for issues like climate change, pandemics.

Power is not zero-sum; it can be positive-sum.
Example: China's energy security as beneficial globally.
Need to blend hard power with soft power into "smart power."
Global Public Goods:
- How to produce benefits that are shared globally.
- 19th-century Britain as an analogy for modern U.S. interests.
Emphasis on cooperation and network organization.

Smart power strategies are crucial in addressing power shifts.
Optimism in the ability to develop a new narrative of power combining hard and soft power.
Final remarks on the potential for good news in power dynamics.