Lecture with Professor Allan Lickman

Introduction

• Host introduction and background info on Professor Allan Lickman
• PhD from Harvard University in modern American history and quantitative methods
• Assistant professor at American University since 1973, distinguished professor in 2011
• Author of 13 books and numerous articles, expert witness in 100 civil cases
• Developed "Keys to the White House," predicting US presidential election outcomes since 1984

Discussion on Joe Biden's Commitment

• Biden's campaign chair confirms commitment to the 2024 race
• Lickman's skepticism about Democrats pushing Biden out
• Commentary on the perceived spinelessness of the Democratic party
• Historical perspective on Democratic behavior

Critique of Polls and Democracy by Polling

• Polls as snapshots, often misused and unreliable
• Examples of misleading polls: 1988 Bush vs. Dukakis, 2012 Obama vs. Romney, 2016 Trump vs. Clinton
• Polls' error margins are misleading; human factors make polling unreliable
• Polls often underestimate voting strength (2016 Republicans, 2023 Democrats)

Keys to the White House System

• Importance of incumbency and other key factors in predicting election outcomes
• System goes back to 1860, robust through changes in society and politics
• Biden as a successful incumbent president based on objective data
• Critique of Democrats potentially pushing out Biden
• Biden ticks off essential keys: incumbency and party contest

Plan B Scenario if Biden is Forced Out

• Proposal for Biden to resign, making Harris the incumbent
• Harris as a qualified president ensuring incumbency and party unity
• Avoiding a repeat of 2016 open seat chaos

Importance of Data-Driven Media

• Media's failure to report accurately and indulge in both-sides-ism
• Impact of media on democracy, especially if Trump wins again
• Urgency for media to act as guardians of truth

Conclusion

• Final prediction after Democratic Convention
• Biden's current standing: down two keys, with four shaky keys
• Unpredictable, cataclysmic events could impact the outcome
• Emphasis on learning from history and focusing on data

Calls to Action

• Encouragement to follow Lickman's YouTube channel for more data-driven analysis
• Reminder to subscribe to the Mides Touch Network newsletter for updates