Spring Meetings Overview

• Importance: One of two major annual global economic events.
• Atmosphere: Shaped by the global economy and economic growth outlook.

Major Economies Insights

1. United States

   • Expected slower growth in 2019 compared to 2018.
   • Factors affecting growth:
     • Fading fiscal stimulus.
     • Uncertainty regarding trade policy.

2. United Kingdom

   • Brexit remains a key concern during the meetings.
   • Possibility of a "crash out" with no agreement or a more negotiated exit.
   • Greater certainty expected about the UK's path by the time of the meetings.

3. Japan

   • Facing a demographic crisis: population projected to decrease by one-third in the first half of the century.
   • Strong growth defined as 1% annually.

4. Germany

   • Largest economy in Europe; narrowly avoided recession at the end of 2018.
   • Auto production has declined.
   • Export sector impacted by:
     • Slower growth in China.
     • US trade frictions.

US-China Trade Relations

• Ongoing concerns about trade outcomes.
• China’s announcement of structural reforms aligns with US demands but final decisions lie with Presidents Trump and Xi.

Overall Economic Sentiment

• General anxiety regarding global economic growth and financial strains.
• Atmosphere expected to be less optimistic compared to previous years.