good day today is 4th January 2025 and we are in the runup to the Russian Orthodox Christmas which is celebrated on Tuesday um which is the 7th of January by the Western calendar of course by the Julian calendar which the Russian Orthodox Church follows it is the 25th of December just saying anyway since we are now heading into the Christmas holiday news from the Russian World if I can call it that is becoming thinner and that by the way includes information from the battlefronts in Ukraine that doesn't mean that there has been any cessation of the fighting President Putin and prime minister Orban and various other people proposed that there should be a Christmas Truce I remember that back in 2020 2 2023 um President Putin at that time actually briefly announced a unilateral Christmas Truce in the fighting in Ukraine the ukrainians rejected it um there's been no agreement about a Christmas Truce this year and though it's difficult as I said to get a clear picture what is going on on the battlefronts as of today nonetheless less um my own sense is that the fighting in Ukraine is continuing and well there'll be more from me about that later in the program because today's program is one which I'm going to start in which I'm going to start by discussing another conflict in another place which is the conflict in the Middle East and the report in axos American Magazine about discussion that took place last month whatever that means December or November my guess is late November um in the White House in the United States concerning a possible attack a joint attack on Iran by the United States and presumably Israel though interestingly Israel is barely mentioned in this axios article and um well those who have been following this channel those who listen and watch the programs that I've been making I've been talking about how at many on many occasions ever since the current period of Crisis began in the Middle East with the attack by Hamas on Israel on 7th October 2023 anyway on many occasions it has seemed to me that we have been drifting closer very close sometimes to a situation of conflict between the United States and Israel on the one hand and Iran and we've had massive deployments at various times of US forces in the Middle East US Navy carriers have been deployed in the Middle East sometimes to the frustration of the Pentagon which has been asking questions about why these carriers are in the Middle East rather than in the indopacific region and has been saying that these carriers are basically doing nothing but anyway carriers have been deployed to the Middle East amphibious Warfare ships have been deployed to the Seas of the Middle East um us um military forces have been beefed up in various places in the Middle East there have been reports of warnings and threats by us officials including supposedly a letter by President Biden himself addressed to the Iranian leadership a letter which has never been published if it even exists um but one apparently containing all kinds of warnings which perhaps the Iranians would have seen as threats anyway those have been addressed to the Iranians as well and there have been public statements by various Western officials including American officials but alarmingly also European officials also at various times appearing to criticize hezb uh Iran as the main instigator of the crisis in the Middle East not withstanding the fact that both us and Israel intelligence have apparently concluded in fact have concluded that Iran had no role or forn knowledge of the Hamas attack on Israel on 7th October 2023 and that in fact it Iran's relationship with Hamas especially the military leadership of Hamas based in Gaza and um um and the um um lead the military leaders of Hamas who carried out the attack on Israel people like Sina anyway it looks as if the isra the Iranians had very little contact with them now one person of course who has been beating the drum incessantly calling for action against Iran has been prime minister Netanyahu he began to do that in the early 2000s he's never stopped at any point since despite various reports from the US intelligence agencies saying that Iran basically put a stop to its nuclear weapons program following the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and anyway U nonetheless and not withstanding prime minister Netanyahu continues to demand attacks on Iran back in the summer he went to the United States he visited Congress he gave an extremely belligerent speech demanding appearing at least to me to to to show that he was seeking some wider war in the Middle East this even as the fighting in Gaza continued um conflict soon after began between Israel and Hezbollah in South Lebanon the Israelis embarked on their usual program of assassinating Hezbollah leaders including the charismatic and long serving um Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan nzala um Lebanon Beirut was heavily bombed there was extensive ground fighting in southern Lebanon which it must be said however never really achieved its uh purpose apparently Israel was not successful in capturing even a single Village in southern Lebanon anyway the fighting went on and of course there was also conflict between Israel and Iran directly the Israelis bombed the um Iranian Embassy in Damascus a building a series of buildings which perhaps is worth pointing out the Jihad fighters who have now captured Damascus have respected they have not stormed the Iranian Embassy building or the consulate just as they've left the Russian Embassy buildings and diplomatic premises in Damascus alone but the Israelis did on the contary strike at the consulate building in Damascus killing an Iranian General there then there was the assassination in uh Teran of um hania who was the political leader of um of um Hamas this um on the occasion of president pesan 's inauguration and there have been various other attacks on um on um Iranian positions of over and above the major war that has taken place in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah and other allies of Iran and of course the houth is continue to launch missile strikes on Israel in fact they are still continuing to do so despite Israeli air strikes on their positions in Yemen and despite attempted attacks upon them by the United States as well so anyway all of this has been going on and um I've discussed at various points how all of this seemed to me to be leading towards a potential war between the United States and Iran obviously allied with Israel what the Israelis have on many occasions numerous occasions spoken about as cutting the head cutting off the head of the snake the snake of course being Iran and of course Israeli cabinet ministers have been busy saying all of the same things also well the administration um began to um fall apart in the summer when it became impossible any longer to pretend that President Biden was in full charge of the US government and uh did not have the age related issues that everyone is now talking about but which before it was extremely risky to talk about just saying anyway President Biden stood down he was replaced as the Democratic Party's candidate in the November election by Camala Harris President Biden's vice president she however was not reelected was not elected so instead it is Donald Trump who is once more president-elect of the United States nonetheless and I have come increasingly to the view that many of the decisions which I suspect were setting train in the summer perhaps in the expectation that the Democrats would retain the White House in November many of the decisions continued to work their way way through and obviously there was missile attacks by um the Iranians and the Israelis against each other's territories I've discussed those at length I've discussed how the second Iranian missile strike which took place in October actually did penetrate very effectively through Israel's air defenses and do did achieve successful damage to Israel's massive neim Air Base in the neev desert anyway so there's been all that fighting but of course beyond that in in November we had the sudden collapse of Iran's major State Ally in the Middle East the Assad government in Syria between 27th of December 27th of November and early December the government of Syria the government of President Bashar alassad simply imploded it collapsed without a fight and as I've discussed in many programs this is not the result of some great insurgence see some massive battle fought out in Syria it is it was clearly the work of some some kind of internal coup within Syria with most of the top leaders of the Syrian Army the generals and people like that the people who were in overall charge in Syria having been basically bribed to stand down now I'm not going to in this program revisit the whole topic of the um causes of the collapse of the Assad government in Syria I've discussed this in many previous programs I accept that the Caesar sanctions had a role um I still believe I do believe that many of the problems arose from passive actions on the part of President Assad himself it's become increasingly clear to me that his wife is very seriously ill um perhaps even mortally ill and that undoubtedly has had an effect um causing him to lose focus on um on policy on decision making and he was perhaps never fully comfortable as president of Syria in the first place just saying but anyway I'm not going to revisit all of this um I accept that as I said president Assad made serious mistakes and decisions that were the problems of the Caesar sanctions the key point is that all of this opened the way for the mass infiltration and bribery of top senior commanders all of this happened happen in perhaps because the original commanders who had won the war for president Assad previously had been re replaced by other men who were less reliable either by President Assad himself or by his advisor or by through all kinds of complex processes that I'm not really very familiar with and I've said in several programs that it's quite clear to me that this was a joint Enterprise carried out by various parties the turkey obviously playing in some respects the most important role Israel however clearly also involved and the United States involved as well now in the immediate days and weeks following the collapse of the Syrian government the series of Articles appeared in the Israeli media talking about how with the collapse of the Syrian government and of the Syrian military and with Israel itself conducting a massive bombing campaign to destroy what was left of Syria's air defenses um those air defenses that had not been looted and destroyed by uh as a result of the collapse the government collapse in Syria and with the Russians also dismantling many of the big radar sites that they had created in Syria anyway articles began to appear in the Israeli media about how this opened a pathway for Israel to conduct a attack an attack on Iran and the point was that Syrian airspace because of the potency of Syria's defense system um was really was inaccessible to Israel and the power of Syria's uh radar systems and of course the Russian radar systems meant that Israel Israeli aircraft movements could be tracked and Iran could be provided early warning of large scale movements by Israeli aircraft or indeed come to that American aircraft towards Iranian territory now with Assad having fallen with the entire air defense system in Syria having been destroyed with Iran having lost its influence in Syria the way the pathway for an attack on Iran was finally open Iran no longer had that early warning uh would no longer have that early warning of Israeli aircraft taking off from Israeli air bases the Israelis could use Syrian airspace bringing them significantly closer to Iran than had previously been the case um an attack on Iran had suddenly become much much simpler well I'm going to suggest in light of this axio article that the collapse in Syria was at least partly intended to make such an attack on Iran possible and I'm going to further suggest that if President Biden had been reelected in November or if Camala Harris had been elected in November following the collapse of the Assad government in Damascus in November which clearly had been pre-prepared for a long time had all that happened then in that case the Biden Administration and the Israelis probably would now be moving forward with an attack on Iran they would be taking advantage of the collapse of the Syrian government and of the collapse of Syria's air defense system in order to mount the attack on Iran and the man who's probably the architect of all of these policies Jake Sullivan anyway he has apparently continued to push to the extent that he can for an attack on Iran in the last weeks of President Biden's Administration um despite the fact that President Biden is now heading a lame duck Administration and that on the 20th of January of this month the new president of the United States will be Donald Trump now all of this is to some extent and I say it straightforwardly my own uh my own reasoning but bear in mind I've been following the situation in the Middle East very closely I've been seeing the various um movements of US troops air assets and Naval assets I've been listening very carefully to what prime minister Netanyahu has been saying I've been looking at the various actions that the Israelis have been taking it's been clear to me that the Israelis have been trying to provoke a conflict with Iran for some time one which they hoped would draw in the United States the Pentagon has been nervous or so it seems to me about deploying its carriers too close to the Iranian Coast because it's become increasingly clear that Iran has significant and very powerful um missile assets which possibly it would be able to use against those carriers so anyway at some point this is my guess I stress again this is a guess it is my guess that at some point in the summer a decision was made maybe the president himself was not told but but a decision was made by some people to press forward with the overthrow of the Assad government get erdogan and the Turks also involved in order to achieve that objective and then jointly after the election was out of the way press forward with the attack on Iran that is my guess now all of that is guess what I don't think is really disputable is that Jake Sullivan did have a meeting with President Biden in the White House at which he and various other senior us officials discussed an attack on Iran and we have this information from axos on the 2nd of January they published this article scoop Biden discussed plans to strike Iran nuclear sites if Teran speeds towards bomb and then we read that White House national security security advisor Jake Sullivan presented President Biden with options for a potential us attack on Iran's nuclear facilities if the Iranians move towards a nuclear weapon before January 20th in a meeting several weeks ago that remained secret until now three sources with knowledge of the issue tell axio and then the article goes on to say a US strike on Iran's nuclear program during the lame dark period would be an enormous Gamble from a president who promised he would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon but would also risk handing a fresh conflict over to his successor that is a colossal underestimate Biden did not green light a strike during the meeting and has done not done so since and then we are told that in fact there was no um actual decision made to conduct a strike on Iran this is not really apparently so we're told by axus a planning meeting at all um it was just a discussion of hypothetical options in case intelligence came that Iran was moving purposefully towards developing a nuclear bomb before the 20th of January um this despite the fact that elsewhere in the article axios tells us that there was no actual intelligence that um Iran had taken any step further towards moving towards a nuclear bomb and in fact the article tells us that um Israeli intelligence has assessed that even if Iran decided to build a bomb it would need to develop a nuclear explosive device or Warhead and that would take at least a year to do so there is no special or particular UR Mercy um involved and as I said the um information in the article says that nothing particularly new about the Iranian nuclear program has actually been picked up so was this as axius tells us just a discussion of hypothetical options well we are told that some of Biden's torp AES have argued internally the two Trends the acceleration of Iran's nuclear program and the weakening of Iran and its proxies in their war with Israel together give Biden an imperative and an opportunity to strike not the word the words imperative and opportunity and we go on to read that some of Biden's allies including Sullivan think that the degrading of Iran's air defenses and missile capabilities along with a significant weakening of Iran's Regional proes would improve the odds of a successful strike and decrease the risk of Iranian retaliation and Regional escalation now that doesn't actually tell us that this discussion took place after the collapse of the Syrian government but it strongly hints at it and um the article uh goes on to say that salivan suggested the blows Iran and its proxies had received over the past year could push Iran to seek a nuclear weapon it generates choices for that adversary that can be quite dangerous and that's something we have to remain extremely Vigilant about as we go forward and in fact Sullivan has recently made a number of public comments about this he has said publicly that um Iranian officials have recently taken to making comments about how Iran it might be the time for Iran to start seriously thinking about developing a nuclear bomb capability now that by the way is true I have myself discussed this extend defensively in recent programs I've pointed out that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah hame appeared to float the possibility in a speech that he made some weeks ago and other Iranian officials have spoken in favor of Iran developing a nuclear capability since then uh though president pesan and he's um officials uh those closer to him including Mr arachi the Iranian foreign minister for the moment seem to be opposed in other words there is an internal debate about this question going on within the Iranian government but anyway we come back to the fact that um so far there's no intelligence apparently that the Iranians have actually moved forward with any particular uh program to develop a nuclear bomb and um Beyond this um it seems that um the Israelis themselves are saying that even if the Iranians decided to press forward today it would take them at least a year before there is a working Iranian nuclear device so what has happened was it all really just a discussion of hypotheticals just a you know Sullivan coming up to the White House meeting with Biden in the Oval Office saying to him well you know let's just engage in a bit of um you know thinking here Syria's Fallen the air defense systems in Syria are no longer functioning Iran has taken some blows with the Israeli attacks on Iran the um uh Hezbollah has been weakened isn't wouldn't it be a good idea therefore especially given that the Iranians seem to be discussing acquiring a nuclear bomb wouldn't it be a good idea for us to conduct a strike on Iran that's what the axio article in some places suggests that this discussion was all about well the answer is I don't believe that not for one moment I think that um what we see is a last attempt by the officials of what is now the outgoing Administration to implement the plan that they worked out before the November election before the November election there was this buildup of tension with Iran there were the missile strikes um by Israel against Iran and by Iran against Israel there was the assassination of hania there was the assassination um of uh nzala um there was the fighting in southern Lebanon the plans were put in place to overthrow the Assad government and as I said had Biden been reelected in November this meeting that took place would unequivocally have been a planning meeting and it would have been a planning meeting to discuss the opportunity created through the collapse of Syria to move forward with an strike on Iran the long planned long prepared strike on Iran um the problem was that Biden was not reelected Harris wasn't elected Trump was elected instead and starting a new war against Iran in the last weeks the dying weeks of a presidency that has been voted out of office really isn't a good idea and well it doesn't break American law perhaps it does but anyway it perhaps bends con stitutional and legal principles in the United States to Breaking Point even if it doesn't quite break them but it would be an extraordinary thing to do surely if anybody is going to make a decision now to start this kind of conflict against Iran that person should be the person who in two weeks time will be the president of the United States who will be Donald Trump um if the Administration has Intelligence that Iran is actually heading working towards building a nuclear bomb what they need to do is to share that intelligence with the president elect and in fact we're told that um such sharing of intelligence has actually happened uh the the article itself tells us this Sullivan said last month that the Biden administration had briefed President elect Trump on the intelligence picture regarding Iran's nuclear program so this is something for the president the president elect once he becomes president to decide and to make a decision about is absolutely inappropriate for Biden as president in his last weeks to start this war um a war which it looks to me as if it was carefully planned anyway it's makes absolutely no sense for him to start this war now why debate doing it why actually have a meeting presumably in the Oval Office and discuss it well I think there are several reasons why this might have been done firstly preempting Donald Trump's decision is also a way of putting Donald Trump in a particularly difficult position because if the Biden administrations launches attacks on Iran at this time attacks which of course Israel would support and would participate in another War would be started a conflict between the United States and Iran Donald Trump who has made extremely Hardline statements about Iran who clearly doesn't like the Iranian government at all would find himself in a very difficult position it would be very difficult for him or so it seems to me to Simply call this war off it might upset some of his supporters it might upset the Israeli government which he is known to be friendly to it would put him in a very difficult position and um it's difficult to see how he could do anything in that kind of scenario that would turn out well for him um if he ended the war he would be criticized if he continued the war he would get himself drawn into a conflict an open-ended conflict in the Middle East a military conflict in the Middle East whereas previous reports have indicated that his preference is not a war with Iran but a tightening of sanctions a blockade an economic blockade to try to strangle economically Iran so that might be one reason the extent to which the current Administration maintains its hostility to Donald Trump should not be underestimated and their desire to make life as difficult for him as possible remains and continues to be an important priority in this of course it's the same as with our earlier decision that earlier step taken in November to press forward with the missile strikes against Russia so that's one reason the second reason is that when a whole lot of preparation and planning has already been done when large amounts of money presumably have been paid over to Syrian generals when assets have been moved into place when uh plans have been prepared well sometimes the bureaucratic pressure to see the plan through remains extremely strong and not just the bureaucratic pressure but the emotional pressure as well um having invested intellectually and emotionally a huge amount of time in preparing and planning this thing very difficult for someone like Jake Sullivan to say well Donald Trump won the election let's just call the whole thing off um of course the this assumes that my assumption that this meeting that has taken place in the White House had originally been intended to be the culminating meeting of a long series of steps and decisions all of which worked towards a war with Iran well that assumption must be true if this explanation I have just given is true as well there is a third reason and it is actually a very important one because over the next uh 10 days something is going to happen uh two weeks something is going to happen which might start changing the entire geometry of the situation in the Middle East and might make make an attack on Iran much much more difficult far more difficult than it is at the moment and indeed ultimately more difficult than it has ever been because on the 17th of January Russia and Iran are apparently going to sign and presumably move forward towards quickly ratifying a partnership a strategic partnership agreement now the signature to the document will be um apparently uh made during a visit by president pesan to Moscow um and this will happen on the 17th of January ratification of this agreement is expected to be completed in March now I've had some information about what this strategic partnership document contains and um it's obviously come from information within Russia and it's come from a certain source and I'm not going to discuss the identity of this Source all I would say is that this is not difficult information to obtain in Russia it's been extensively discussed in relatively open forums so um I'm not engaging in full speculation here most of the agreement is about most of this agreement is about economics and foreign policy um as is always the case when a strategic partnership is established Iran and Russia will coordinate closely on various foreign policy positions that are Mally important to each of them secondly and much more importantly it looks as if the Russians and the Iranians both now heavily sanctioned countries and after Donald Trump becomes president likely to be even more heavily sanctioned countries at least in the case of Iran um they are going to move forward towards um agreeing some kind of free trade agreement between them this will not be the kind of conventional free trade agreement it's more likely to be a mutual economic assistance PCT Iran will be looking to receive Russian Investments the Russians will be opening up their Market to some types of Iranian Goods there will be anyway a significant increase in trade and of course the two countries are going to move forward towards developing their banking systems integrating their two banking systems making it possible for Mir cards for example Russian Mir cards to be used in Russia um linking up their Bank their banking messaging systems um Iran could become much more available open openly available for Russian tourists to visit which would be an interesting development by the way there's an awful lot to see can do apparently in Iran certainly there are extraordinary archaeological sites and cultural sites which I can imagine would be very interesting to people from Russia though of course there are possibly restrictions on things that Russian tourists might want to do but anyway I'm not going to discuss all of that uh further in this program so anyway there is going to be a major economic and political deal done between the Russians and the uranians but apparently alongside the Strategic partnership agreement alongside the published part of the uh of the um strategic partnership agreement that is coming there are there is also a security and Military dimension now this is a fairly common thing there are there is a strategic partnership agreement for example between Russia and China as we all know um It Is underpinned by all sorts of other agreements of this I have absolutely no doubt many of which touch on strategic and security and military questions about which we are not well involed informed or indeed informed at all but which functioned just below the surface and it seems as if to a obviously lesser extent the same will be true in terms of this strategic partnership that Iran and Russia are going to be working towards now it should be clear and the information that I'm getting is that what what is being discussed is Falls well short of an outright military Alliance Russia is not committing itself to come to the defense of Iran if Iran is attacked but Russia will provide Iran with significant military assistance so the Russians will take steps to develop Iran's air defenses in fact it's been suggested to me that the Russians and the Iranians are going to work towards fully integrating Iran's patchy air defense system into Russia's far more comprehensive and um detailed one uh and effective one and in the war in Ukraine we've seen how the effective and comprehensive Russia's air defense system is so we'll get no doubt more supplies of advanced Russian missiles more Russian Radars located in Iran but all of these will no doubt be connected to Russia through fiber optic networks and of course the Iranians will be provided with early warning from Russian satellites and drones and long range Radars based inside Russia or in some other neighboring countries aligned to Russia altto together um the Iranian air defense situation is going to be transformed and it's likely that this will also work towards um strengthening Iran's Air Force apparently Iran has now received the two first suho 35 fighter jets it's already received deliveries of yak 130 ground attack and trainer aircraft and anyway there will be a significant long-term upgrade of Iran's military system and once all of these steps have been put in train and this is obviously a process that could take years but once this has all been done I'm going to make my own suggestion which is that at that point an attack on Iran will become far too risky for the US Air Force to seriously entertain and that will probably affect Israeli planning as well now the Russians apparently have made it quite clear that they're not going to provide any assistance to Iran's nuclear program and in fact they clearly do not want Iran to move forward with its nuclear with a nuclear weapons program it could be that all of those statements made by those Iranian officials a couple of weeks ago were partly intended to put pressure on the Russians and to try to get the Russians to make more agreements extending Russian military assistance to Iran than had been the case than that had been the case than the Russians had perhaps initially wanted to do so that might have been part of a game who knows I'm not going to speculate about this but anyway it looks as if the Russians have said Iran should not develop nuclear weapons Iranian officials notably foreign minister araki have come back and have again been saying today in advance of this meeting this Summit meeting between Putin and pesan in Moscow that Iran will not be moving forward with the nuclear weapons program as we've seen that is a Russian insistence the Russians are insisting on this as part of the enacting of this agreement and in that respect by the way this agreement is a stabilizing factor in the Middle East because the Iranians may say to themselves in fact quite plausibly will say to themselves that if they get this kind of air defense Shield through the help of the Russians then they will not need nuclear weapons anymore and that could significantly lessen some of the uncertainties and pressures that might exist currently in the Middle East as I said if the possibility of an American and Israeli strike on Iran is conclusively taken off the agenda and if the possibility of Iran moving forward to developing nuclear weapons is also removed then as I said that could be a stabilizing element in the diplomacy in the Middle East anyway that's that's the agreement that apparently is coming that the Russ and the Iranians are going to sign on the 17th of January now that might explain why people like Sullivan some of the hardliners in Israel some of the other neocons in the United States want an attack on Iran now because they're worried that once this agreement is signed once it is ratified once the Russians and the Iranians move towards its implementation ation then the time window for an strike on Iran will start to close and quite plausibly given that the Russians do not want to be in an alliance an outright alliance with Iran it could also be the case that people like Sullivan and and the other neon officials in Washington and possibly prime minister Netanyahu as well in Israel are saying to themselves that look let's attack Iran now before this agreement is made not only will that warn the Russians against moving forward with that agreement it's quite likely to make the entire agreement impossible because the Russians will be very reluctant to move forward with a partnership agreement with Iran if Iran is at war with Israel and with the United States and that will kill the possibility of this agreement which could place Iran once and for all out of our reach that could kill this agreement completely so I could see why despite the fact that Donald Trump won the November elections despite the fact that there is no sign that Iran is going to be able to develop a nuclear bomb by the 20th of January indeed the whole idea that he can is absurd despite the fact that it's there's no evidence that the Iranians are even moving forward at the moment purposefully to develop a nuclear bomb and despite the fact that any decision of this kind really should be made by the next president of the United States who in just over two weeks time will be Donald Trump I can see why some people in Washington might want to start a conflict with Iran now cause as much trouble for Donald Trump as possible strike at Iran whilst you still can use all of the use the opportunity that has now been presented to cut off the head of the snake and crucially do so before this partnership agreement between Russia and Iran is signed if you unpack it and if you apply neon logic to this whole situation then the decision to launch an attack on Iran in the dying weeks of President Biden's Administration does not look so surprising well I'm going to repeat again I think that this is doing this would be an absolutely terrible thing to do first of all it would be a terrible mistake in terms of Iran's nuclear program which presumably well which would overtly be the reason why this attack was happening to prevent Iran moving forward with its nuclear program now there's lots of stories about how Iran has embedded its nuclear facilities deep inside Mountain sides and deep caves and things of that kind the may be technologies that can break into these caves and caverns and underground bunkers and things of that kind my own view however is that whatever the Israelis and the Americans do if the United States wants to guarantee that Iran will develop a nuclear bomb then the way to do it is by attacking Iran I say that on the assumption that the Iranian government survives the pressure which by the way I think it would I think an American attack an Israeli attack on Iran would consolidate Iranian society around the current government and that government finding itself at war with two nuclear Powers Israel and the United States would then be would then have an overwhelming incentive to press forward with nuclear weapons acquisition it has the scientific a technological knowledge how to do that it also has the um raw materials in the form of enriched uranium even if all of the equipment could be destroyed even if the um enriched uranium could be hit and dispersed which would create all kinds of further contamination risks or so I assume even if all that were the case um I still think Iran would be able eventually to acquire a nuclear bomb after all it is not without friends which who already have nuclear bombs North Korea Pakistan but possibly places like that I still believe that in time perhaps quite soon Iran would acquire a nuclear bomb and of course even if the Russians do not want to be allies of Iran and nor do the Chinese they don't want to defend Iran in the case of it being attacked if it is in if it is the subject of an unprovoked attack of this kind I suspect that the Russians who after all want to divert the United States away from Europe and from the conflict in Ukraine would have an incentive in providing Iran with Technologies and means in order for it to defend itself so the United States could find itself in another very very long War um and one that could cause all sorts of further problems in the Middle East as well so I think this is a terrible idea um for the moment at least it looks as if it has been called off I suspect that the Pentagon has once again put its foot down and said no but the fact that a discussion like this has taken place in the white house at all that Biden and Sullivan even discussed the idea of an strike in Iran that Sullivan even put up hypothetical options to do it that Donald Trump was not apparently included in these discussions if he was I would assume that the axio article would mention the fact if all of this was the case well it tells us a huge amount about the administration that is now currently leaving office it seems to me that what Garland Nixon said about it right at the time when it was first formed that this was an extremely dangerous Administration we're here you see the further proof now anyway that's what I'm going to say about this article in axios up to this up to now um we still have of course more than two weeks to go before the inauguration of Donald Trump we still have um um just under two weeks before beesan and Putin sign the partnership agreement it's still possible that it could happen my guess is that this article in axos was rushed out by someone who wanted to prevent it let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that it doesn't take place now let's now turn to that other War the war in Ukraine as I said we've had less news at the moment about what has been going on on the battlefronts but there is still some news and it continues to focus mostly in the areas around kurakov and um pakros and it looks as if the Russians are indeed um in a strong position increasingly strong position around pakros that um they have indeed captured the village of pan and they are indeed as is been claimed now on the outskirts of codlin Village Cino the The Village I discussed um U yesterday and that they're attacking also the village of usen ifka so all of these various places to the southwest of bakov are indeed um being captured by the Russian military meanwhile um we've been told by Tas that after the fall of Vos venka the Russian army is now very close to cutting the main Supply Lo Road between pakos and constantina um Russian troops this is from Tas have intensified shelling pressure on the highway leading to Leading from pakros to constantina the security forces have told Tas the pakr constantina highway is under heavy shelling the pressure on it is increasing due to our success on the front line including in the area of the village of Vos vishenka only a little more than two kilometers remain before the road is completely under our control so the Russians are very close now to cutting the road uh from pakos to constantina before long they will have also started to cut the supply routes leading to pakros from the north so the encirclement of pakros is accelerating elsewhere in this area um there continues to be this um rapid Russian Advance against almost no opposition um west of selovo um and there are reports now that the Russians have not only captured the village of shevchenko which lies to the west of sidu and to the west by the way of the kurakov reservoir but interestingly that they have now occupied the territory or are about to occupy the territory of the biggest lithium deposit in Ukraine now there's been a lot of talk about Ukraine being a source for minerals mineral wealth there's apparently lithium and all kinds of other well in fact it's well known that Ukraine is very very rich in strategic minerals and it's been claimed by various people including Senator Lindsey grahe in the United States that this is one of the reasons why the United States and the Western Powers need to keep supporting Ukraine and in fact it's even suggested that this was the entire reason behind the entire conflict to get control of Ukraine's abundance of Natural Resources including the key lithium deposits well if that's the plan the biggest apparently the biggest one is now either under Russian control or about to fall under Russian control so the Russians continuing to push forward in this area as well indications that the last remaining defense line in this area uh defense position in this area that the ukrainians have the uraki andreeva rosli Constantinople defense area that that is in the process of being encircled as well opening the way for a Russian advance to the NEPA there's also more reports of further Russian advances in toret um it looks as if Ukrainian control in Tores is now very limited and um that the Russians apparently have Inc um enlarged their Bridge heads west of the oscal and jobet rivers and there's also a report that the Russians have begun um that the Russians have begun or rather resumed their offensive towards assua from the East that they are um once more attacking sovo the important Village in Kos region which lies Northeast of the main Supply road to suja from sui region and it is in sui region by the way that the Russians have also conducted another big missile strike so the whole situation on the front lines in Ukraine continues as bad as ever there's much speculation that the ukrainians are planning some kind of Counterattack either towards the zapor roia nuclear power plant or perhaps in Brians it's been suggested that the mobilization of 18 year olds and 18 to 25 year olds is going to free up more more um trained troops from the Ukrainian Army to mount some kind of offensive in of two months time um the military summary channel has correctly pointed out that whenever Ukraine has conducted a mobilization in the past it has immediately followed up with an offensive it carried out a huge mobilization in the spring and summer of 2022 and the result was the offensives in Haru and hon region in the Autumn of 2022 um then it conducted a further more limited mobilization apparently in the winter and spring of 2020 3 um with some troops being trained in Western Europe and that then led to the summer 2023 offensive and then of course in the spring of last year in the spring of 2024 Ukraine reduced the conscription age from 27 to 25 more men were called up and well a few months later the K offensive was launched so it would be completely in character for zalinski and syi to misuse any extra soldiers that they get as a result of this disastrous conscription to launch another offensive some people that suggesting Brians region as I said in Russia as being a likely Target well who is to say if there is such an offensive by the ukrainians it will further accelerate the already inevitable collapse that at least is my view so anyway that is the military situation in Ukraine um for the moment no further news about much in the way of diplomatic activity but I'm going to offer my own guess there's been a series of Articles um including one recently in the London Times about how the ukrainians are trying to reach out to Trump how they're trying to persuade him to see things from their point of view the Europeans apparently are doing the same thing I'm coming increasingly to the view that these articles which have been appearing all over the media in Europe at least that um Trump is being one round to the theory that the Russians need to be forced to the negotiating table by um um further sanctions pressure by more military supplies to Ukraine by in other words an escalation of the war by the United States an escalation in order to deescalate one could say that all of these articles ultimately have one source and that source is Kiev I think that the ukrainians have been involved engaged in a major campaign over the last few weeks talking to their friends in Europe to their friends in the media to their friends in the United States to sway the Trump Administration the forthcoming Trump Administration in that direction and yes they have had meetings with some Trump officials including vice president to be JD Vance but the ultimate decision maker remains Donald Trump I think he's perfectly he perfectly un well understands what is going on and he's not going to make any decisions himself until he's met with Putin that is my own view I think think that he understands and understands very well that meeting with the Russians is the logical and proper way forward if a negotiation process is to be conducted effectively now Ian proud the former British Diplomat has written a very interesting um article on he's both on responsible statecraft and on his own blog at substack um suggesting six points that the Trump Administration needs to keep in mind in order to avoid failure in the forthcoming negotiations and um I have to say I think that this is actually a good article and it does point to some serious things firstly he says that right now there is no strategy and he's absolutely right I have discussed this in many places failure in Ukraine has emerged out of this is proud out of Western disunity as the US the EU and the UK and inra Alliance interests collided on key issues such as sanctions War aims financial and Military Support the runup to the presidential elections and its aftermath saw repeated appeals to Trump proof US policy towards Ukraine Kellogg should encourage Ukrainian and European leaders to coales around a single realistic vision for Ukraine's future defeating Russia is not a legitimate foreign policy goal as Ukraine will never be in a position to deliver this the focus might include rebuilding a strong Democrat IC and prosperous Ukraine that attains attains EU membership at a determinate time so I completely agree that there is not any plan as long as it takes is not a plan um assuming that um Ukraine can Outlast Russia or that the West can Outlast Russia is not a plan I believe that there was originally a plan the plan was to Russia through sanctions to provoke an economic crisis there to force the Putin government to collapse to force its collapse um to achieve regime change in Russia and that was the plan that existed in the first couple of weeks of the conflict when it became increasingly clear that it would not work that and when it also appeared in April that sticking with that plan might actually cause Ukraine to begin serious negotiations with the Russians leading to the Istanbul agreement that was when the United States and the Western Powers switched gears and embarked on a major program of military support for Ukraine which has certainly succeeded in prolonging the war but only as a result of provoking an even deeper military crisis not just in Ukraine But ultimately affecting the whole of Europe so I think that there was a plan but I think that the plan has failed and that the problem is that there's never been a coherent way to come up with a new plan given the grandiose and extreme nature of the original objectives so I agree that a more realistic thinking is needed whether EU membership forms a part of it is another matter but anyway Ian proud goes on to say that one cannot strike a deal without talking to Putin which is absolutely true I think Trump understands that the next is Ukraine is never going to join NATO well that's true but um the Russians will have to be convinced that if Trump promises it it will never happen and that might be very difficult to achieve just saying going forward and then um in proud says that the Europeans should stop kicking the can down the road for EU membership and move forward with EU membership I personally am starting to think that as far as the re Russians are concerned the door on that is closing but anyway you can read what Ian proud has to say about that and that sanctions haven't worked but can H help deliver peace and here actually Ian proud makes some actually valuable points which is that though the sanctions themselves are unsuccessful um the best thing to do would be to start easing on them in the first few months perhaps not doing away with them entirely but starting to ease some of the sanctions in order to create Goodwill in advance of the negotiations and I think that is a much much better approach than the alternative one which is being talked about now which is to escalate sanctions instead escalating sanctions is going to make the Russians less willing to negotiate or at least to consider proposals easing the sanctions is going to put them in a more amable mood and in a mood where they're more likely to take Trump and what he comes up with seriously and the last point that Ian proud makes was one which I completely agree with zeleny may be a problem not the solution well as far as I'm concerned he absolutely is so anyway we will see what happens but my own view is that it's prob probably premature to expect any real movements from the Trump Administration until the meeting between Donald Trump and Putin has taken place and realistically even if work is done as soon as Trump is inaugurated in January it's going to take several weeks to set up that meeting and well a date in March is perhaps the earliest one can realistically expect but anyway that's my view on the pro um in today's program tomorrow I propose to return again to the gas issue which is getting extremely ugly and I think there's a Dawning realization that in fact cutting off the gas from Russia might not have been such a clever idea after all but anyway we'll say more about that I'm going to discuss the situation in transnistria and well quite plausibly we'll be having more well we will have a awful lot more no doubt to say about the situation in Ukraine returning to the subject of today's program I think we have had a very very near Miss I am sure that if the current administration had been reelected if Joe Biden had been reelected in November or if Cala Harris had been elected in November this meeting that took place in the White House would have been a fully serious planning meeting and over the course of the next few weeks perhaps even now we would be in a war with Iran as it is the election in November has prevented that from happening hopefully we will avoid such a war there's still as I said two and a half weeks of this Administration to go but hopefully we will avoid such a war though a lot will depend again on what Donald Trump does that's the end of my program today more from me soon let me remind you again you can find all op programs on our various platforms locals Rumble and X you can also support our work VI patreon And subscribe star don't forget to check out um um to also to check out our shop um links under this video if you've liked this program please take the like button and check your subscription to this channel that's me for today more for me soon have a very good day [Music]