Lecture Notes: Impact of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudanese Agriculture

Introduction

• Location: Sudan's Blue Nile State, near Ethiopian border.
• Issue: Reduced fruit production on farms due to changes in the Blue Nile River.
• Primary Concern: Decrease in silt carried by the river which is crucial for soil fertility.

Impact on Local Agriculture

• Farmers' Observation:
  • Abdelkarim Hussein notes less silt due to the dam storing water.
  • Mohamed Mustafa near Khartoum reports changes in soil and reduced crop yields.

The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

• Description:
  • Said to be Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam upon completion.
  • Ethiopia's Claim: Expected to lift half of its population out of poverty.
  • Concerns in Sudan: Reduction in productivity for downstream farmers.

Impact on Water Supply

• First Filling Impact:
  • Millions affected in Sudan due to reduced water supply.
  • Nearly 5 million people suffered impacts last year, expected to rise to 20 million.
  • Second filling expected to store 13.5 billion cubic meters - higher than last year's 4.9 billion cubic meters.

Environmental and Economic Impact

• Impact on Brick Making: Reductions in silt affect brick quality and pricing.
• Uncertainty and Fear:
  • Water shortages affecting agriculture and daily life.
  • Environmental impacts are uncertain.

Political and Diplomatic Context

• Failed Talks: Ongoing challenges in reaching an agreement on dam operation.
• Information Sharing: Sudan emphasizes the need for transparency in operations.

Expert Analysis: Professor Nader Nouraldin

• Refilling Announcements:
  • Ethiopia’s conflicting announcements about water volume for the second filling.
  • Construction ongoing despite heavy rains.
• Water Levels:
  • Reports of decreased water levels in the Blue Nile.
  • Uncertainty persists about new water levels due to the rainy season.

Conclusion

• There is significant uncertainty and concern among Sudanese farmers and those relying on the Nile.
• Hope for diplomatic solutions to mitigate irreversible impacts on agriculture and water supply.