Transcript for:
Butterfly Effect L14: One Day at a Time 1

okay so you know you guys are marking levels here and here and and like this and like this maybe you are maybe aren't i'm not sure and then you know you're marking all these levels and it just kind of becomes chart kind of regurgitation right like it just becomes an overload of information on your chart that just doesn't really make sense right the purpose of today is to understand how do we make money every single day and again like i said people are going to be at different levels and different tones of where they're at you guys are marking trends and on all these things and and uh i i see people's charts and i see a like i i see charts and they and they end up looking like this you got millions of levels in here so you go into your time frames and they're all marked differently and they all have and maybe this is my fault because of my xbt chart on stream is is pretty pretty bad as well then i see this and it's like okay how the hell are you guys making decisions on this like what are you guys doing with this like it's good to have information on your chart right and then on top of that i see trend here and trend here and like this is what i see on charts and it's like okay i get it there's information that you guys want to follow but this is more of of like analytics at that point this this is more of trying to make analytical sense of of charts and not actually creating moments and and decisions right where you it's like oh i can make money here because of this reason right so that's kind of super important to know so i'm going to walk through my levels here and and what i've marked real quickly just for we missed it because someone's share screen wasn't on that guy's got to get fired so we got you know weekly to weekly trend here this would have allowed us for example this is good information that would have allowed us to make uh the right decision and and then we have a couple trends up here that make sense in the moment and nothing you know much more than just a few trends so you know had we been in this moment here right had we been in this moment here this is just kind of what i was going through in the replay tool you would you would have seen the uh let's go to the minute charts here yeah okay one minute charts perfect and uh let's get to this moment here you would have seen that if you mark trent properly here this is trend here and this is information in this moment where was like okay i could have made a good decision here to make money and i could 100x this and it's like oh there's 600 and here's another 800 and here's another or whatever so you guys make that decision in the moment and it's just this is information quality information that is on your screen right now that makes sense to take trades based upon and and so fine you have trend and this trend was hit and you lose trend right so fine maybe you took one too many trades right the level gets hit one two three times it's kind of like oh you know what do you expect after level's been hit once you know you're safe to fly once you're safe to take any kind of trade you want on twice as like okay well maybe second entry people are getting in this this went three times and and you know in in the span of half an hour you know you could have extrapolated close to 20 or 25 out of this trade across multiple trades and it's like going lower and lower and lower every time and then it falls through trend and even you even get exit entry before you would have liquidated so like it's kind of like okay well you took this trade it happened three times possibly even a little scalp in here four times for another like little couple percent and then what do you expect of course it's going to collapse down so it goes to its appropriate level right so it goes uh and and falls down to its appropriate level and we can we can you know use uh maybe a little bit of a larger time frame here trading game hello here we go we have our trend right here trend collapses it goes right to its level that's fine what i was showing you guys before when when we missed it on the screen there's like miraculously [Music] you've got your tested hold here and then and then you had your your range down here which was the actual target which is fine that's the actual target and this is you know and what i was saying before is like immaculately in the span of a few seconds bitmex managed to go down when this level was hit you know another conversation for another time almost as if it was a safeguard that was triggered right like it's kind of a little silly that when this level got hit it basically shut down bitmex which is odd to say the least yeah on other exchanges that actually did hit the target um on bitmex it went to this level and you can see the level it's it's right there it's a test that hold it's uh it was tested it held its range you know it's a different type of level it's something i talk about in the uh the butterfly effect is is a little different here this uh what why this level is what it is and what this one is why and what it is so a little different there but anyways regardless hits its level loses trend hits its level bang so you have your trade and in the moment that would have been useful information because you could have taken a few trades on trend and you would have been like okay this is collapsing down let me just take a few trades on my next level because it's valuable information at the moment having 100 levels here won't allow you to make that decision you have two levels right you have actually three levels and each of them have their own respective reaction point that's going to be created right so you have three levels which you should be taking trades on everything else is just noise on your chart so so that's kind of like the tone of today's like what do we do in the moment to kind of find these trades and you know no matter what level you're at you should be able to mark some of these levels now you might be more advanced you might be less advanced you know speaking speaking of trades from from yesterday like a mentorship group we had taken a trade or at least we we had designed out the trade i have to look at my other screen where the actual level is okay let's do it i might have already deleted it where is it right here this is a lower what was the price that was supposed to hit 67 66 73 so it was supposed to hit 66.73 before a major pullback so we had our short marked here and uh it was useful information so there's a lot of levels that i have marked but this is useful information to understand where something is going to have a pullback and so it did that's fine it has a pullback but it's it was useful information in that exact moment now i have all kinds of levels marked up here right i have all sorts of information marked on on my actual trading chart and i have you know these different these different things going on what is actually useful that's going to make me money right there's actually you know what do you do in the moment because again i see too many too many people and they have their charts are like this but times 50 right it's an overload of information it's just it's just too much information right they'll have stuff like this marked and then they'll have like this marked because they're trying to make sense out of it and then they'll have this marked here and then they'll have this marked here and then they'll also have something inside of here marked right here and then they'll also have this marked here and then they'll also have you know and and so they've got all these different tags and information points of oh what are these levels what are you know and then they'll have you know maybe a trend like this uh i i don't know maybe will they just connect two points here we're just gonna kind of do some some random stuff on the screen just try to you know connect a few points here and then they'll have like this right here like what did this do for you right like what did this what did this do for you okay you lost the trend what what does that even do for you even this trend in the moment like it would have been here and it's like what did what did this even do for you how did this give you any useful like yeah this one did but again right you lost your trend you lost your change you're going to dump so so this one was useful information this here not useful information this year not useful information this is actually the right level and and you can see where it holds trend and over time it loses it and then it just falls off a cliff right so this is what i was looking at yesterday and saying okay well i understand that it's gonna lose this trend for different reasons there's a level that i'm going to target that i think is going to be what's going to cause the trend loss and and so it did it went a little higher than expected it went actually about 30 or 40 dollars higher but but not bad catching 30 or 40 dollars from a what what's a 10 move or nine and a half percent or whatever it was i only got six percent but that's fine i'm happy with that whatever it was where's the useful information on this chart because then you know people are are doing this and and you know all these different things and it's like okay you guys have to understand what the actual information and let's do this properly here okay so we're going to delete this oops not that one we're going to get rid of this one here put this here and i'm just going to visually do this with my eyes to here right here so that's your trend right now that's fine let's double check that oh no we want this one here like this come on right there okay good to there yeah this is trend right here so right useful information and what inside of here is actually useful like what are we what are we using right let's start looking at what makes sense to use in in terms of like how again you're talking about that same thing how do we just log on and make money like all the stuff is crap here it's all gone this is there's no there's no nothing here there's nothing here there's nothing here these won't help you make decisions right because again you can you can have all these lines but unless you pick the right one it doesn't matter your chart your i's chart should be very very minimal this is how we make money as day traders we log on and you know what to prove a point i'm going to do this and i'm going to just delete my chart because i do this all the time i just bang i just delete my chart it's gone i don't care right oh unless all drawing tools i don't need any of that stuff it's not important to me anymore i almost do this daily i almost go on my charts and all that precious work i have i just delete it because i don't care because you know what i'm looking at i'm looking at what what can possibly happen today so what i'm going to look at is i'm going to look at like this i'm going to set some targets i want to see like okay what's my worst case scenario where am i actually going here okay so let's set a four hour hold level target number one let's go to a higher time frame and we're gonna say okay we have a daily right here target number two this is the extent of everything that could possibly happen today and anything outside of this i just not interested not interested i just want to know how to make one two three four percent today and that's like a hundred two three four hundred percent if you guys can make a hundred percent a day even on five hundred dollars you're going to be rich it's actually quite simple it's actually very very simple so so also again all we're doing is starting to define the criteria of what is like our kind of maximum potential that could happen so this is a daily so so we're going to just simply do this we're going to go daily right here so that's that's a kind of a daily range that we're going to sit inside of and this is a four hour so if we go down we're going here if we we're going to there that's it nothing else i don't care about anything else i'm caring about anything else up here down here get that stuff out of your mind it doesn't matter if you are if you are gonna break up to some crazy level right now like okay here we're gonna mark one level this guy right here if you're gonna run up to some crazy level right now it's gonna be this and that's it if you're not already in the trade as a long you are a fool to get in this trade at any other time other than the bottom i'm you know gonna be the first to say that only buy bottoms and tops because everything else is just increased risk until you guys learn how to do it better and more properly right just just if for some reason you're to break above this 6 500 range and run up to 73.45 all you need to know is that level's ready ready for you to short you don't need to follow in on and get it on the move because i'm telling you there's so many rejection points inside of this range it's almost an overabundance the the likelihood that it actually comes up to this is is so unlikely the likelihood that it even comes up and tests this daily is highly unlikely it's most likely going to stay inside of this range today if anything it'll it'll drop to attack this right so this is like every single day this is like the bulk of my charts this is the most important decisions i'll make that day and it's not this thing where i've created this elaborate chart that that is just so insane that you can't even they can't even breathe you know we can we can even just look at okay so so if that's true let's do the same thing who cares who cares if we delete our work it doesn't matter we don't we don't need all that extra crap all we need to do is mark this right for today and then we need to go and mark this daily i think it was right here yeah right there so so then we can just mark this as a daily right this is our daily or it's a four hour whatever you want to market as i just find it on the daily so i'm just using red really i understand it visually with my eyes so i don't need to really color code like i color code but like i'm just so used to doing this stuff that they could all be gray and i would just kind of remember what the levels are because i'm just so used to categorizing them right it's just something you develop over time so whatever the color is it does you know that's fine it doesn't matter your color is your color and even if you were to go in here today and you know you were to take this and say okay let's actually use the replayer tool and go to here okay so fine it hits its level in here there's a different level it hits we won't discuss what level it hit today why and that's fine that's not what today is about you can just start setting some parameters on this trade if you were in this moment you could you could just simply set some parameters as to okay i want to shorter i want to long and these are spots that i could do it in right so that kind of would have been your first short maybe it's on a different time frame here yeah it's right here on the hourly so that's fine it could even be on a different time frame here so that's fine the hourly rate there so that level is uh already hit and it's gone we don't need we don't need it anymore we simply just don't need it and then you'd even you could move this to right here and this level was actually already hit but we can we can leave it there anyways that's fine so you could even just define some beginning parameters so like how do you make money on this right we're just going to let this thing kind of stabilize out a bit you know let it have its pullbacks and its moves because we you know you already would have taken your first short you would have been looking for information like this hey we got a hold level here this is a place where i can make money you see we don't need all this other crap on the screen we don't we don't even need this level up here we don't need this down here we simply have a hold level that we could have longed and we simply had a short that we could have shorted here now i probably wouldn't have shorted this i'm gonna be honest with you guys i probably wouldn't have shorted this i would have gotten a little greedier and waited till up here so i probably would have missed this short that doesn't mean if if you didn't mark the inverse level here on the higher time frame it doesn't mean you made a bad decision so 6 16 i probably would have went like 6 fifty or maybe like six thirteen fifty did that even get hit six thirteen fifty is the lowest i would have where did it go here uh sixty two eleven i would have missed entry by two dollars no problem i don't care there's another trade happening in a few minutes so what do i care and then just shortly after you have a whole level and and this is the information that you need to know every day like just just what's next not what is on your charts and and oh there's a four hour level all the way out here yeah i mean if we if we come down to this level i'm happily gonna jump in with two feet and put a relatively large hundred exposition there and and that's good as i should i need to know kind of my extreme events that can happen that day and this is going to be different tomorrow so if this gets hit today and i take my trade guess what it's gone tomorrow i'm not i'm not taking that trade over again just what's next is what's important to us like just what's next this in this in this moment you have a hold here you also had one right here now this is quite high in the range you can see this is you know okay fine it develops a hold level it's quite high in the range so so to buy here is quite silly in my opinion it's just way too high in the range doesn't mean it's not going to attempt and there's going to be some people trying to play this level that's fine there is and you can see the level holds for you know a little while and then breaks down and that that's fine it's just a little bit of a silly trade in my opinion but this makes a little bit more sense you know you've been dumping down 10 in in one night you've got kind of the the greediest hole level in here makes sense that this gets hit and it has a move up and you know where is it going to go to well it's going to go to either one of its respective levels and let's talk about that where can it go it can go to one of its respective levels in here right like you've got a whole level here so it could possibly just go to here if it breaks past this it could attempt to go back to this level or it could simply go to its next whole level right here so we're going to just mark a few of those so this is kind of the information you you use in the moment and say okay where is it going next so i've understood what's next on my charts because i need to make money every day and this is how i'm going to do it i'm just going to go i'm going to wake up in the morning i'm not going to be charting at nine o'clock at night because then i'm not going to get any sleep that's something i'm going to tell you guys don't ever do that don't don't start charting at 9 pm at night two hours before bed because then you're going to see crap like this like that's what i did last night i avidly advised my students don't do this it doesn't matter if this gets hit overnight while you're sleeping 59.95 this great four-hour level that's going to give us five or six or seven percent or whatever yeah okay great you know i put 2 500 of leverage on that and you know you make twenty grand i just have to wait for the level it's never gonna get hit because every single night it's well okay fine it will get hit sometimes but you you'll get into the same pattern every single night and you'll you'll you won't sleep and you'll be waking up every single night you'll be setting alarms at night just treat it like a day job you just go to your store open the door sell it sell the eggs to kathy and joe and the milk and whatever and then you just close shop and and people can come back tomorrow because you guys have to be healthy in order to make money right you have to be healthy physically and mentally in order to make money because that's a big part of what we do is mental health being able to actually make these decisions properly in the moment so try to get 9pm no plan because you're not taking trades anyway so what are you wasting your time for go spend time with your family go watch a show go go watch ozark i heard season three just got released you know that's a good one right they're a small town with a thousand people and and small stores like what i'm talking about you don't have to do this i i for the first time in a long time because i'm so excited about this level being hit last night i was up till 12 30 at night and i shouldn't have been i should have shut it down and i should have just said like because i realized as i'm sitting there and it's 11 o'clock and i'm marking these levels and i'm like okay and you know i took one scalp up in this range at 61 30 something it was right here i took a scalp right here for a nice one percent and you know so i so i took this scalp here and i'm you know trying to train and all this stuff and it's nine o'clock at night i'm sitting there and i'm like i shouldn't be doing this but anyways i still did so i did make 100 on one trade which was great but then you know as as the time is going and it's just you know the clock is winding down and it's all of a sudden it's 11 o'clock and i'm you know falling asleep on my desk all of a sudden it's 12 30 and i'm eating cereal like okay i got to stay up this level's gonna be hit soon it's like it never was hit it was never hit just shut it down right like you don't need to do that i didn't even need to trade this this was stupid i shouldn't have done that i should have just woke up go to work the next day just look at what's next because every single day in these markets you can make 200 300 400 500 so but you have to be healthy to do it so in this moment this would have been a good example of oh here's a whole level it gets hit and it gets held over a few candles hey this seems like a pretty smart trade to be in look one two three four candles it's holding its whole level from a larger time frame from hey this looks pretty smart we should probably take this trade here and then we can just stop out relatively if the level breaks down we can just get out for one or two dollars under it and take almost no losses on 100x contract right and so it goes after its valley and target is hit right so inverse holds the move down valley breaks the move up target is hit right you could have exited the trade there how much could you have made right and and this is over the course of 20 minutes as long as you understood what was next right you don't need to catch big four-hour candles like that they happen when you're trading perfect if not hey here's 70 just call it 70 after fees and everything this is a a fairly simple trade if this inverse doesn't pull the move back you just go after the valley it's going to break the move to move it up so that means we're going to go after the next whole level you sir are gone no it actually broke up even further aha look at that oh and even further we had we exited too soon hey we still made 78 not bad oh it actually went after it's it's it's actual target oh not bad it was pretty decent so you know had we been a little more patient we actually could have made 200 right not bad but again break level means the move is moving up so maybe you exited here maybe there's a smaller time frame hold inside of here and there is it's right here there's a smaller time frame hold right here actually so it actually didn't even reach that hold and just went up after its level so that's fine whether you made 78 or 2 or 200 on here not really important the only the only thing that's important is you at least made money right you you had money that you made it actually went up after it's higher range too which is quite quite crazy yeah it actually went after the top of its range